Results done in red, after show.
Survivor Cagayan, Survivor's 28th season, is entering its final two episodes (already!) and they are down to the final seven. Here I will predict the boot order, and give my chances of winning to each contestant. Basically, I'm predicting how the rest of the show goes.
7th: Tasha Fox (Chance of winning: 10%)
Tasha has won the last two immunities, and if she doesn't win a third in a row, I don't see her being able to get herself out of being voted out. Tony and co. will see that she is actually a bigger challenge threat than Spencer, and Spencer will also save himself because he has a good rapport going with Tony. If Tasha can somehow weasel her way to the finals (or go on an immunity streak), she has a very decent shot at winning. The problem is getting there.
Actual Finish: 6th
Tasha almost finished in the spot I predicted for her. I knew that she would go soon because not only was she a challenge threat, but she didn't have a core alliance. Not a recipe for success on Survivor.
6th: Spencer Bledsoe (Chance of winning: 15%)
Spencer will be giving it everything he's got at immunity, but I don't think it will be enough. I think Spencer's one of the most likeable castaways in recent seasons, which is why the others won't take him to the finals, or even that close. Spencer will undoubtedly win if he makes the finals. But like with Tasha, he has to get there first.
Actual Finish: 4th
Spencer did better than I thought he did, but not as good as I was hoping he would do. Again, he didn't have a core alliance and while he was able to win an immunity which furthered him, he wasn't able to win another.
5th: Yung "Woo" Hwang (Chance of winning: 20%)
If they get rid of Spencer and Tasha in the next two votes, this tribal will determine everything. I think it will either be Tony or Woo. Tony has the "Super Idol" which I believe he can use in any vote up to the final five vote, meaning he is almost a lock for final four, at least. I think that idol will come into play, and Tony will be gunning for Woo and hard.
Actual Finish: 2nd
Woo played so quiet of a game it was hard for him not to get to the end, because he not only wasn't a huge threat and didn't make moves, but he just followed in Tony's footsteps. Even if he hadn't won the final immunity challenge he probably still would have made it to the end.
4th: Tony Vlachos (Chance of winning: 20%)
Tony has played some game, I tell ya. The final four immunity challenge will be huge. My prediction is that the girls (Kass, Trish, Jeffra) will be gunning for Tony to be voted out. If Tony doesn't win, he's gone. Tony has yet to prove himself in challenges, so if it's endurance or focus or stamina, I don't see him winning immunity. We'll have an all female final three.
Actual Finish: 1st (Winner)
Now if this final four had happened, Tony would probably have been out of there. However, he did trick everyone into thinking his idol was good for one more vote than it actually was, which I didn't see coming. Tony's actually pretty lucky they didn't see through that, because if they did, he'd have been voted out.
3rd (fewest votes at final Tribal Council): Kass McQuillen (Chance of winning: less than 5%)
Kass is almost a lock for the final three, because she has no shot at winning. Whoever is in control will take her to the end. She won't get votes from any of the former Aparri tribe (Sarah, Morgan, Jeremiah). I give her at least a small shot, because she is an attorney, and her job is trying to persuade a jury. If she does a good enough job, you never know what could happen.
Actual Finish: 3rd
Yay! Someone who I predicted in the right spot, but not for the right reason. When I did these predictions, I was pretty sure there was going to be a final three vote. But alas, there was two.
2nd (2nd fewest votes at final Tribal Council): Jeffra Bland (Chance of winning: less than 5%)
Jeffra, like Kass, has viritually no shot at winning, but a very good shot at the finals. But unlike Kass, it's her inability to make moves that will cost her. Kass has just always voted with the majority, not making a single big move. She had an opportunity to and save Jeremiah, but she didn't. She's finals bait.
Actual Finish: 7th
In my defense, Jeffra could have made it this far if she played the game right. She just had to flip-flop between Spencer/Tasha and Tony/Trish. Flip-floppers tend to not do too well on Survivor.
Winner: Trish Hegarty (Chance of winning: 25-30%)
Trish has been the dark horse the entire season. No one has even THOUGHT of voting for her, and she has yet to receive a single vote. Not only do I predict her to win, but she'll win in a landslide (8-0 or 7-1) with possibly Tony casting a vote towards Jeffra to spite Trish. Hate to say it, but using Tony as a shield to take the heat for anything her alliance does, is not only incredibly smart, but makes her game look pretty much flawless.
Actual Finish: 5th
Two things: 1) I didn't see Spencer winning Final 5 immunity, thus forcing the core alliance to turn on each other. And 2) I was so sure no one would see Trish as a threat to win, as she really hadn't done too much. However, I should have seen she hadn't made anyone mad or done anything stupid like Kass did. But if Spencer hadn't won final five immunity, I'm pretty confident in saying Trish would either have gotten 1st or 2nd. She was that close.
Final Tribal Council Vote Predictions: Sarah, Morgan, LJ, Jeremiah, Tasha, Spencer, Woo: Trish
Tony: Jefra
There you have it. So far, I am 2 for 2 when it comes to predicting the winner of Survivor around the final 7. I correctly predicted Sophie and Fabio winning. Also, if this final three happens, it would mean a member of each the beauty, brains, and brawn tribe made it to the end. I'm rooting for Spencer, but pretty sure Trish is going to be crowned Sole Survivor.
Results Summary:
Wow, usually I'm not too far off on my predictions but this time I was. But hey, predicting the correct winner 2 out of 3 times isn't bad. And having a final two instead of final three didn't help. It's also very hard to predict who wins immunity, because that usually determines the vote, and you can't tell what kind of challenges are forthcoming. I knew Tony had a decent shot of winning. All he had to do was get to the finals, which he almost didn't. If his idol bluff hadn't worked, or if Woo's desire for victory had been greater, he would not have won. But it was a good game and I'm looking forward to Blood vs. Water... 2!
Survivor Cagayan, Survivor's 28th season, is entering its final two episodes (already!) and they are down to the final seven. Here I will predict the boot order, and give my chances of winning to each contestant. Basically, I'm predicting how the rest of the show goes.
7th: Tasha Fox (Chance of winning: 10%)
Tasha has won the last two immunities, and if she doesn't win a third in a row, I don't see her being able to get herself out of being voted out. Tony and co. will see that she is actually a bigger challenge threat than Spencer, and Spencer will also save himself because he has a good rapport going with Tony. If Tasha can somehow weasel her way to the finals (or go on an immunity streak), she has a very decent shot at winning. The problem is getting there.
Actual Finish: 6th
Tasha almost finished in the spot I predicted for her. I knew that she would go soon because not only was she a challenge threat, but she didn't have a core alliance. Not a recipe for success on Survivor.
6th: Spencer Bledsoe (Chance of winning: 15%)
Spencer will be giving it everything he's got at immunity, but I don't think it will be enough. I think Spencer's one of the most likeable castaways in recent seasons, which is why the others won't take him to the finals, or even that close. Spencer will undoubtedly win if he makes the finals. But like with Tasha, he has to get there first.
Actual Finish: 4th
Spencer did better than I thought he did, but not as good as I was hoping he would do. Again, he didn't have a core alliance and while he was able to win an immunity which furthered him, he wasn't able to win another.
5th: Yung "Woo" Hwang (Chance of winning: 20%)
If they get rid of Spencer and Tasha in the next two votes, this tribal will determine everything. I think it will either be Tony or Woo. Tony has the "Super Idol" which I believe he can use in any vote up to the final five vote, meaning he is almost a lock for final four, at least. I think that idol will come into play, and Tony will be gunning for Woo and hard.
Actual Finish: 2nd
Woo played so quiet of a game it was hard for him not to get to the end, because he not only wasn't a huge threat and didn't make moves, but he just followed in Tony's footsteps. Even if he hadn't won the final immunity challenge he probably still would have made it to the end.
4th: Tony Vlachos (Chance of winning: 20%)
Tony has played some game, I tell ya. The final four immunity challenge will be huge. My prediction is that the girls (Kass, Trish, Jeffra) will be gunning for Tony to be voted out. If Tony doesn't win, he's gone. Tony has yet to prove himself in challenges, so if it's endurance or focus or stamina, I don't see him winning immunity. We'll have an all female final three.
Actual Finish: 1st (Winner)
Now if this final four had happened, Tony would probably have been out of there. However, he did trick everyone into thinking his idol was good for one more vote than it actually was, which I didn't see coming. Tony's actually pretty lucky they didn't see through that, because if they did, he'd have been voted out.
3rd (fewest votes at final Tribal Council): Kass McQuillen (Chance of winning: less than 5%)
Kass is almost a lock for the final three, because she has no shot at winning. Whoever is in control will take her to the end. She won't get votes from any of the former Aparri tribe (Sarah, Morgan, Jeremiah). I give her at least a small shot, because she is an attorney, and her job is trying to persuade a jury. If she does a good enough job, you never know what could happen.
Actual Finish: 3rd
Yay! Someone who I predicted in the right spot, but not for the right reason. When I did these predictions, I was pretty sure there was going to be a final three vote. But alas, there was two.
2nd (2nd fewest votes at final Tribal Council): Jeffra Bland (Chance of winning: less than 5%)
Jeffra, like Kass, has viritually no shot at winning, but a very good shot at the finals. But unlike Kass, it's her inability to make moves that will cost her. Kass has just always voted with the majority, not making a single big move. She had an opportunity to and save Jeremiah, but she didn't. She's finals bait.
Actual Finish: 7th
In my defense, Jeffra could have made it this far if she played the game right. She just had to flip-flop between Spencer/Tasha and Tony/Trish. Flip-floppers tend to not do too well on Survivor.
Winner: Trish Hegarty (Chance of winning: 25-30%)
Trish has been the dark horse the entire season. No one has even THOUGHT of voting for her, and she has yet to receive a single vote. Not only do I predict her to win, but she'll win in a landslide (8-0 or 7-1) with possibly Tony casting a vote towards Jeffra to spite Trish. Hate to say it, but using Tony as a shield to take the heat for anything her alliance does, is not only incredibly smart, but makes her game look pretty much flawless.
Actual Finish: 5th
Two things: 1) I didn't see Spencer winning Final 5 immunity, thus forcing the core alliance to turn on each other. And 2) I was so sure no one would see Trish as a threat to win, as she really hadn't done too much. However, I should have seen she hadn't made anyone mad or done anything stupid like Kass did. But if Spencer hadn't won final five immunity, I'm pretty confident in saying Trish would either have gotten 1st or 2nd. She was that close.
Final Tribal Council Vote Predictions: Sarah, Morgan, LJ, Jeremiah, Tasha, Spencer, Woo: Trish
Tony: Jefra
There you have it. So far, I am 2 for 2 when it comes to predicting the winner of Survivor around the final 7. I correctly predicted Sophie and Fabio winning. Also, if this final three happens, it would mean a member of each the beauty, brains, and brawn tribe made it to the end. I'm rooting for Spencer, but pretty sure Trish is going to be crowned Sole Survivor.
Results Summary:
Wow, usually I'm not too far off on my predictions but this time I was. But hey, predicting the correct winner 2 out of 3 times isn't bad. And having a final two instead of final three didn't help. It's also very hard to predict who wins immunity, because that usually determines the vote, and you can't tell what kind of challenges are forthcoming. I knew Tony had a decent shot of winning. All he had to do was get to the finals, which he almost didn't. If his idol bluff hadn't worked, or if Woo's desire for victory had been greater, he would not have won. But it was a good game and I'm looking forward to Blood vs. Water... 2!
