SURVIVOR 45 FOUR WORD GAME

 Just like I did with Survivors 44 and 43, I am going to do a Four Word Game for each player after each episode.  The four words I chose for them will say something about their game in the recent episode or something about their outlook going forward.  Or, it could be something I noticed about them, such as confessional count or being the first Survivor to do something in a while.  Then after that, I will re-rank the players in terms of how likely I think they are of winning the game.  

I'll be going in order of their previous rank each week, from lowest to highest, saving the people voted out/eliminated until the end.  In this first one, their order is based on my pre-season ranking. 

After Episode 1 Four Word Game:

J.Maya: Not supposed to remember?
She only had one confessional, and I'm getting pre-merge boot vibes from her.  Well, that's if Reba ever goes to Tribal.  She told her tribe she was a singer, and I thought someone was going to ask her to sing something.  I would've.  

Sean: Surprisingly invisible on Lulu
I'm not sure if the producers thought he was boring--I did see someone theorize that since he was very torn up at Hannah essentially quitting, they didn't show much of him after they lost immunity because it would've given it away.  Hopefully, that's the case for Sean.  But only having two confessionals in an episode where your tribe lost is certainly concerning.

Emily: Most doomed after one
She's essentially a tribe cancer after one episode, and her tribe has the makings of a trainwreck tribe that goes to the merge with at most 3 people.  If Brandon can recover and put together a respectable challenge showing (even in a loss), she's so doomed.  

Drew: Underestimated him, merge likely
We didn't see a ton of the Reba tribe, but my gut from the premiere says I think Drew now makes the merge at least.  He seems better socially than I thought he would be.  His height might be a force in other challenges, as well.

Kendra: Already tired of astrology
I am already tired of hearing Kendra talk about astrology.  I know she made multiple comments regarding it.  And I'm sure she's nowhere near finished.  Will her tribe tire of it as well?  Possibly.  

Brando: Not quite savvy enough
This software developer wasn't savvy enough to figure out the savvy puzzle, which, to be fair, was after intense log moving and also after a physical first challenge.  I saw a version of the solution online, and I gotta say, I'm not sure anyone from season's past could've solved that unless they had practiced the exact solution before.  

Kellie: Purpled player in finale?
Last season, we had Lauren make the finale and have a bit of win equity before being voted out at 5th.  I think Kellie might follow a very similar trajectory, with the show maybe not featuring her much, but she does well.  

Bruce: Uncles annoy people, too
Bruce was adamant that he was the tribe's crazy uncle, not their dad.  Okay, but uncles can be annoying, domineering, and bossy too.  I'm a little worried for him, especially if their tribe loses an immunity or two.  The girls on that tribe seem tight.

Dee: Want more of her
She's got an interesting story, coming from Cuba.  I want to see more of her, but I think we will.  I can't remember anything notable she did in the first episode.  

Sifu: Going for Sia money
Sifu is a bit over the top, and I can tell at the very least he wants that Sia cash she gives to extremely good-hearted or likable players.  I could see him winning if he gets to the end, but I don't know if he will get that far.

Kaleb: Keep a level head
Kaleb seemed to me like someone who would play a more reckless game, but on his tribe, he seems like one of the more stable players.  If he and Sabiyah get to the merge with just them or them and Sean, I worry their lack of numbers will hurt his and Sabiyah's chances (See Ricard and Shan in 41).  The Tika 3 did pull it off last season, but there's no way a tribe repeats that... right?

Brandon: A Daugherty-like story?
Way back in Season 9, Vanuatu, Chris Daugherty struggled massively in the first challenge and was almost the first boot.  In this episode, Brandon may have gone if not for Hannah's insistence on leaving.  Could we see a Chris Daugherty-like comeback from Brandon?  I certainly wouldn't rule it out.  

Austin: Why open beware advantage?
In the new era, everyone opens their beware advantage.  Why?  Every time it has resulted in someone losing their vote until they do something or something happens.  I wish Austin had put it somewhere for someone else to find.  Oh well.  It shouldn't be terribly hard to decipher the code on the tribe flag; just gotta do it in secret.

Katurah: Lawyer bit very winneresque
Katurah hid her professional as a civil rights attorney and even smartly questioned Jake about what an attorney does to hide it further.  This seemed like a bit that we would see from a winner.  Maybe I got the wrong black lady as a winner pick?

Julie: Hid her profession also
Nobody (well, except Jake) wanted to reveal they were an attorney.  Julie seems to have a good head for the game, and I think she won't flame out early like Lindsey in 43.  

Jake: Profession makes or breaks
Jake was the only one who confessed to being a lawyer (although we didn't see it).  This will set a precedent for future Survivor players.  If he gets far and does well, future Survivor players will think it's okay.  If he goes early and it's brought up again, people will keep hiding their professions in that field.  I think he'll be fine given how much he was featured in the promo for this season.

Sabiyah: Why I chose her
Sabiyah's level-headedness and perseverance through that sweat and savvy challenge is exactly why I chose her as my winner.  However, her being on a terrible tribe does not bode well, especially if Brandon and Sean decide to swing to Emily and take her or Kaleb out.  But I still like her chances... just maybe not as much.

And to our departed player...

Hannah: Casting missed this one
Hannah recently gave up nicotine (probably vaping), and casting really shouldn't allow people who have the potential to wimp out through.  I love how in her bio she says, "I want to push myself as much as I can".  Really Hannah?  Really?

All right, new power rankings!  How are they doing now?

17. Emily (-1)
16. J.Maya (+2)
15. Brandon (-9)
14. Bruce (-4)
13. Sean (+4)
12. Kendra (+1)
11. Brando (+1)
10. Drew (+4)
9. Kellie (+2)
8. Dee (+1)
7. Julie (-4)
6. Kaleb (+1)
5. Sifu (+3)
4. Jake (-2)
3. Austin (+2)
2. Sabiyah (-1)
1. Katurah (+3)

Biggest Rise: Sean and Drew (+4)
Biggest Fall: Brandon (-9)!

Katurah is my new winner pick!  Loved that segment she had about hiding her profession.  The Lulu tribe is definitely in trouble, with Emily and Brandon in the biggest amount of trouble if they lose.  But I still worry about J.Maya, who was my first boot pick, so I'm keeping her low for now.  

After Episode 2 Four Word Game:

Emily: Incredible recovery, danger remains
Emily recovered incredibly from the first episode, making amends with everyone on the tribe, although she didn't really have to with Sean.  I wonder if she hadn't given Sabiyah her SITD, if she would've gone home?  Might be a question for Jeff to ask if Sabiyah and Emily make it far.  However, danger remains for Emily as her tribe sucks at challenges and could lose yet again next episode.

J.Maya: Forced content, on outs
The little amount of content we got from J.Maya seemed to be very forced, with her trying to figure out the code on their tribe flag.  It definitely could have been cut from the episode, with Austin figuring it out later.  And with a majority four alliance forming on her tribe that does not include her, and the one that is also on the outs being a challenge beast in Sifu, J.Maya is in serious trouble if Reba ever loses.  They might not, though.

Bruce: Would've been perfect Tika
Bruce's antics make those of us who remember last season realize that he would've been a perfect member to go along with Yam-Yam, Carolyn, and Carson, to make the Tika 3 a Tika 4.  He would've fit right in.  I give Bruce credit, he is trying.  But I think him and Jake are in trouble if Belo loses.

Sean: Affable figure, but... moves?
We're not getting a ton of content from Sean considering how Lulu has been the only tribe to go to tribal council.  In my predictions for the season, I compared him to Romeo, which is looking like a pretty apt comparison.  He is in the majority pre-merge like Romeo, and even if they turn on Kaleb or Sabiyah, he's safe.  In fact, he's now the one I feel best about at least making the merge.  But if he sits on his hands during the merge we could be seeing a losing finalist here like we did with Romeo.

Kendra: Girl's alliance or bust
Kendra will need Katurah and Kellie (and Brando) on her side if she wants to go far in this game.  If Kellie and Brando turn on her and Katurah, she's likely the target.  

Brando: Playing the middle perfectly
We got good stuff from Brando, seeing him make connections with the girls by putting his buff on like a top, and then bonding with Bruce.  He's definitely not going to be the target if they lose.  He somehow has gotten lumped with Kellie to make a two-some, and they will decide the first vote.

Drew: MVP of the episode
Drew is my pick for MVP this episode.  It's not an award I'll hand out every week, only when I feel someone really deserves it.  He went to the summit and was the only one to earn an advantage.  Him sharing that advantage with his tribe bonded him closer to them, especially Austin, who he called the JT to his Stephen.  He then killed it at the immunity challenge puzzle.  His stock shoots up.

Kellie: Laid out tribe dynamics
At least, right?  She's not gotten a whole lot of personal content.  We've heard her say "As a clinical care nurse...", but that's it.  I think she's probably gone around the merge or shortly after, like I originally predicted.

Dee: Big toe, bigger alliance
That was such weird random content for Dee about her long toe, but I'm here for it.  She's got a tight bond with Julie and those two are with Austin and Drew.  Hard to see them getting split up.

Julie: Playing mom role well
Julie is the tribe mom, of course, and she's playing it very well.  She had a great moment with Drew, and she has a bond with Dee.  Hard to see her being voted out early, even if she becomes a liability in a challenge one time.

Kaleb: Can't be in danger
In the preview for Ep. 3, we heard Kaleb's name being thrown out there.  That would be tribe suicide.  That's asking to go to the merge losing every challenge.  I think it was a red herring.  He's the heart of the tribe and their best overall player.  He brought Emily back to the light.  Although, it would be such a dark side move for Emily to backstab him immediately after.

Sifu: Cool, but on outs
Yes Sifu is cool and entertaining, but he's on the outs.  He and J.Maya are not in the majority alliance.  They already have tribe physicality with Austin, so they could afford to lose Sifu if it comes to it.  I don't think they will (at least not before J.Maya), but I'm liking his chances less.

Jake: Bruce shield, then what?
I think Jake is smart to bond with Bruce.  Without explicitly saying so, he's using Bruce as a meat shield.  Given the circumstances of the girl's (+ Brando) alliance, it was his only choice.  But if Bruce goes first, and they lose again, Jake could be in serious trouble.  Side note, almost forgot about what looks to be a seizure of some kind in the preview for next week.  Hope he's okay.

Austin: Advantage taking too long
Austin found the beware advantage in Ep. 1, figured out the code here in Ep. 2, and will likely dig for it in Ep. 3.  He's lucky they haven't lost immunity, because otherwise, he couldn't really afford to take his time.  But it just seems so drawn out--just find it already!

Sabiyah: Vine was so obvious
The vine on the tree holding her idol up was so obvious.  Yes, it was the same color as the tree, but you don't see vines like that on trees, at least not by themselves.  Took her long enough.  Anyway, I also believe she was right to trust Emily, at least for now.  But I worry about her given her tribe's ineptitude at challenges.

Katurah: Vote out Bruce leader
Guarantee if Belo loses, Katurah will be all on the "vote out Bruce" train.  Man, she does not like his antics, does she?  It was like her entire content for this episode, and a good chunk of Ep. 1, too.  

And to our fallen player...

Brandon: Lost his vote anyway
I had this four word answer for Brandon thought up before he got voted out, and I didn't want to waste it.  He declines opening the beware advantage because he doesn't want to lose his vote.  Yet, he participates in the game at the summit, anyway, and still loses his vote.  Brandon just wasn't meant to succeed at Survivor.  He could play 100 tribes and get voted out in the pre-merge 100 of them.

New power rankings!  There's going to be huge shake-ups, as there always are for the rankings after Episode 2.  Here they are:

16. J.Maya (0)
15. Emily (+2)
14. Bruce (0)
13. Kendra (-1)
12. Jake (-8)
11. Kaleb (-5)
10. Sabiyah (-8)
9. Sifu (-4)
8. Sean (+5)
7. Kellie (+2)
6. Katurah (-5)
5. Julie (+2)
4. Brando (+7)
3. Dee (+5)
2. Drew (+8)
1. Austin (+2)

Biggest rise: Drew (+8)
Biggest falls: Jake and Sabiyah (-8)

Wow, 8 of them moved at least 5 spots.  That's half the cast!  I worry about the Lulu tribe, which is why Kaleb and Sabiyah fell (and Emily is still low), but I can't see Sean being targeted, at least not in the next vote.  I love the foursome alliance on Reba, especially the duo of Drew and Austin.  They're 45's JT and Stephen.  And like JT and Stephen, I had to put JT (AKA Austin) higher.  Shout out to Brando who also had a good episode, and like Drew did well at the puzzle.  And I feel he would've earned an advantage at the summit if he had gone.

After Episode 3 Four Word Game:

J.Maya: She's a singer, people!
We see J.Maya, and again she tells someone she's a singer, this time Kaleb.  For some reason, it seems important that we the audience know she's a singer.  That's about all the content she got this week.  We also saw her almost see what Julie and Dee were up to, but she appeared to be clueless.

Emily: Redemption arc fully complete
She somehow went from likely first boot to probably the Lulu member who will get furthest in this game.  Crazy.  She may go down in Survivor history as having one of the best redemption arcs, from Episode 1 to whenever her final episode is.

Bruce: Boys on the outs?
It seems like the girls on Belo hold all the power, despite the fact it's a 3-3 tie between genders.  I think Bruce is extremely lucky they haven't gone to tribal council yet.  

Kendra: More bonds, more chances
Kendra was shown making a bond with Jake, so that's good for her game.  I think I've underestimated Kendra a bit.  I don't think she'll win, but she's likely getting farther than I think.

Jake: Small scare, not again!
Jake had a bit of a scare when he inhaled some smoke and convulsed a bit.  I worry that that was a foreshadowing of something larger happening later in the game to him.  Hopefully, it was just a one-time thing the producers wanted to include, although they easily could have cut it.

Kaleb: The game's biggest threat
Kaleb has now become the biggest threat in the game.  Everyone can see that, including Reba who he went to visit.  He's going to have to tone down his threat level, and maybe I'll be high on his game again.

Sifu: Becoming a literal caricature
Sifu is just a caricature at this point.  His Ju Jitsu moves are just all he is now.  He had no confessionals, but he did have that "rock solo" after Kaleb came to camp, which was weird.  He's gotten little to no game content, which worries me for him.

Sean: Still not even considered
Crazy how in the three tribals Lulu has been to, not once has Sean's name been thrown out or written down.  He is blending in perfectly, and I feel like he could do that post-merge, too.  The question is, if he were to get to the end, would it be enough?  I doubt it.

Kellie: In great spot still
Generally, the middle is a great spot to be, which Kellie is in with Brando, plus Kellie has the two other girls who wouldn't vote for her anytime soon.  She's in a great spot.

Katurah: We know about Bruce!
Yes, we know you don't like Bruce, we get it!  It's rare, especially in modern Survivor, that you see pre-merge a person that wants someone gone this badly.  We'll have to see if Katurah gets her way.

Julie: Momma J no play!
Julie was having none of Drew and Austin's shenanigans.  Well, sort of.  I just couldn't resist that four-word title for her.  She's definitely smart, and while I can't see her winning, I could see her being a huge boost to someone she wants to win, winning.

Brando: The Sean on Belo
I think Brando is like the Sean on Belo.  Quiet, fits in, doesn't stand out in any way, shape, or form.  I think that means Brando will get pretty far. 

Dee: I like her chances
I can't explain it, but I like Dee's chances.  She reminds me of a young Sandra in a way.  I just picture her in front of a jury and I think she's got a good shot.

Drew: Kaleb chose him--huge
I think it's telling that Kaleb chose Drew for the goodwill advantage.  I could see a bond there.  The threats in the game, him, Austin, and Kaleb, should get together post-merge and take out all the non-threats, who would be threats to them.

Austin: Big decision to make
Austin finally found his idol!  But now he has a decision to make, does he sacrifice his vote to make his idol last longer?  What if he never goes to tribal before the merge?  He might not.

And to our departed player...

Sabiyah: Not my winner pick!
Yep, for the first time, my winner pick was voted out in the pre-merge stage.  SIGH.  I knew it was a bit risky taking Sabiyah, but I didn't think she'd be taken out pre-merge due to her challenge strength.  I guess I should have also considered if she would play too hard, which she did.  Her big mistake was targeting Kaleb too early.  Yes, she would have needed to get him out, but at that point it was way too soon.  She also should have either played her idol then.  Just try to find another!  

All right, now to our power rankings.  How do things shape up this week?

15. J.Maya (+1)
14. Bruce (0)
13. Sifu (-4)
12. Katurah (-6)
11. Jake (+1)
10. Emily (+5)
9. Kaleb (+2)
8. Kellie (-1)
7. Kendra (+6)
6. Sean (+2)
5. Brando (-1)
4. Julie (+1)
3. Austin (-2)
2. Drew (0)
1. Dee (+2)

Biggest rise: Kendra (+6)
Biggest fall: Katurah (-6)

With a tribe swap looming, I have to think Lulu won't have someone voted out next episode, but you never know.  Katurah falls because I worry Bruce might get a coalition and target her back.  Sifu and J.Maya struggle from lack of content.  Kendra rises, and I think people will like her more than I thought they would.  Dee is now my new #1.  Like I said, she's like a young Sandra, and I think the guys in Austin and Drew will get targeted before her.  In a final 3 of Dee, Julie, and most anyone (Sean, Brando, Kendra, etc.), I think Dee wins.

After Episode 4 Four Word Game:

J.Maya: Finding an in, maybe?
J.Maya was left on Reba with Julie, Dee, and Sifu, and she seemed to work her way in and form a girl's alliance with Dee and Julie.  She's on the bottom of those three, but her name was never considered tonight, which is good for her.

Bruce: Still a huge annoyance
Bruce needs to drop the act or it won't be just Katurah that is annoyed by him.  The swap wasn't perfect for him, but he did retain Jake, and Kellie seems to still be putting up with him.  Kaleb actually seems to like him--for now.

Sifu: Let stray vote slide
Sifu's not in a great spot.  If Reba loses again, he's a goner.  Now, we saw him get a stray vote from Dee, and if he's smart, he'll let it slide and won't blow up about it.  He should allow it to be a non-issue.  If he makes a big deal about it, he'll only be digging his own Survivor grave.

Katurah: Most connections on tribe
I think Katurah has the most connections on her tribe.  We saw her bond with Kaleb, we know she's pretty close with Kelly, and she's got a... forced connection with Bruce/Jake.  She's either the safest, or someone will realize her connections and she could be in trouble.

Jake: Medical evacuation almost inevitable
I hate to speculate, but Jake was again seen in the promo having some sort of medical issue.  It's almost as if those are hints or foreshadowing his future medevac.  I certainly don't want that to happen, but they seem to be minor enough as to where they easily could've been cut if they don't lead to anything.  So that worries me for Jake.

Emily: Started bottom now here
Basically that Drake song "Started from the bottom", now Emily's here, on Belo, and doing so much better.  She lucked out in the even split between the two pairs on her tribe, so she's essentially the swing vote.  My how her fortunes have changed.

Kaleb: Makes friends basically everywhere
Kaleb is a very affable guy, one that does seem to get targeted come the merge, eventually.  If he can survive the early scares like Yam-Yam did, he'll have a tremendous chance of winning.  He's got to get through the pre-merge first, though.

Kellie: A quiet winner's edit?
On occasion, we do get quiet winner's edits in Survivor.  I liken Kellie's game similar to Sophie's in South Pacific, who I also think she resembles.  If she can get to the end against two players even somewhat goat-like, she could very well win.  

Kendra: Winning over Emily crucial
Kendra is with Brando and two former Reba's in Drew and Austin, so she should really work at winning over Emily, as should Brando.  We saw Emily bond with them, but not her and Brando, so that worries me for her and Brando.  

Brando: Possibly work with guys?
One thing Brando could try to suggest is working with Austin and Drew, if they lose immunity, to take out Emily.  I really wanted to see him bond with Austin and Drew, as he's part Asian like Austin and nerdy like Drew.  

Julie: Makes a fantastic point
I loved when Julie said the best way to progress in the game is to not go to Tribal.  Look at all the winners in Survivor history, I bet a good percentage of them avoided Tribal Council more than most in the pre-merge.  There are a few exceptions like Denise, but winners tend to come from tribes that are strong.  She's got a good head for this game, and I like her chances.

Austin: Lack of content worrisome
He's not getting purpled by any means, but his lack of content shown bonding with others is worrying me.   We see him talk to Drew a lot, but not many others. 

Drew: Way too open, honest
This might be a retroactive four-word game for Drew, but I've noticed he's a bit too open and honest with people.  Has he lied once?  Maybe, but he needs to get better at it.  

Dee: Made her first mistake
In voting for Sifu.  It'll be interesting to see how she recovers.  This hurts her game, and hurts her chances of Sifu voting for her to win if that presents itself.  I definitely think her winning chances took a bit of a hit.

And to our departed player...

Sean: Tired of being unlucky
I think Sean was tired of being so screwed over by luck in the game.  He was put on a terrible tribe with someone not physically cut out for the game, someone who couldn't be away from Nicotine, and a woman who has negative energy.  Then the swap royally screws him over, with the only good challenge player on their tribe being Sifu, and of course, being 1 Lulu member against 4 Reba.  Honestly, I'd feel like giving up too in that situation.  

All right, new power rankings!  There are going to be quite a few big changes because of the swap.

14. Sifu (-1)
13. Bruce (+1)
12. Brando (-7)
11. J.Maya (+4)
10. Kendra (-3)
9. Jake (+2)
8. Austin (-5)
7. Drew (-5)
6. Katurah (+6)
5. Emily (+5)
4. Dee (-3)
3. Kellie (+5)
2. Kaleb (+7)
1. Julie (+3)

Biggest rise: Kaleb (+7), also Katurah (+6), Emily and Kellie (+5)
Biggest fall: Brando (-7), also Austin and Drew (-5)

Wow, well I told you.  Half of the cast moved at least 5 spots, with only two staying within one spot.  I felt Brando and Kendra's chances got hurt in this last episode, as well as Austin and Drew.  I'm finally warming up to Emily, and yep, I have Julie as my #1 right now.  This could be a season where I have 8 or 9 number 1's.  I mean, I've had a new one every week.  Might have Kaleb or Kellie next week.  But Julie really impressed me.  I like how she's the old lady on her tribe, but now she's arguably the safest.  And unlike most Mom-type figures, I could see Julie winning over a jury.  

After Episode 5 Four Word Game:

Sifu: No allies, in trouble
Who are Sifu's allies in this game?  We haven't seen him bond with anyone, really.  And when players like this enter the merge with no allies, or their only ally was voted out pre-merge (Think Ryan in 43), they usually don't last long in the merge.

Bruce: Merge target for sure
As well as Sifu, I see Bruce being an eventual target come the merge, Katurah likely leading the charge.  He only has Jake and maybe Kaleb, and Kaleb definitely doesn't want Bruce to see it coming.

J.Maya: Easy vote or goat
J.Maya will be an easy vote at some point for the majority, which she will likely not be a part of, or she will be a goat dragged to the end.  There is no other option.

Kendra: Wasn't her, at least
Kendra was thrown under the bus by Brando, and that really could have turned the tables on her.  Fortunately for her, that didn't work.  If Brando had been swapped with Kellie, it'd be a different story.  Also, Kendra needs to tone down on her "Kendra-isms" or she'll be a pretty easy vote.

Jake: Package not exactly telling
Jake's personal content package, which showed how he lost weight and went through a personal struggle, was not exactly telling on what his fate in the game will be.  Sure, it could set up for a great redemption arc for him, but it could also be part of a tragic downfall.

Austin: Let him have sandwich!
I was screaming for the girls to choose the sandwiches over the amulets.  Those amulets are just walking bullseyes, for people not wearing them and for people wearing them.  It's dumb.  The amulets in 42 had no impact, and they'll likely have zero impact this season, I bet.  Also, Austin smartly extended his idol and used the goodwill advantage, given to him by Drew through Kaleb.

Drew: Handled drama rather poorly
Drew showed his age and lack of life experience with the way he reacted to hearing about Brando's lie.  He easily could have gone this episode.  My stock in him certainly dropped.  Even if Drew gets to the end, he's losing to most of this cast, especially Austin, Emily, and Kaleb.  

Katurah: Got caught, hopefully forgotten
Katurah got caught looking for an idol on Lulu's beach, and fortunately, Kaleb saw her first to save her some of the heat.  Hopefully, come the merge, people will forget how aggressive she was playing then.  

Emily: Tough call, handled well
Emily handled the drama around Belo pretty well, especially given how she started this game.  She has certainly matured as a player.  It was definitely a tough call, and honestly, I might've gone the other way since Kaleb (her ally) is with a bunch of Belo's.  Well, it'll at least create some interesting drama come the merge.

Dee: Why lie? Come clean.
I would've come clean with Sifu if I was Dee.   I would've feigned stupidity, or just say I was throwing my vote away to not give Sean the satisfaction of leaving the game.  He's just one guy with zero allies, what's he going to do if he's against you?

Kellie: Emerging as a threat
Kellie is certainly emerging as a UTR (under the radar) threat, but maybe she's not so UTR after all if Kaleb is noticing her game.  It was good to see her and Kaleb bond.  It could be whoever takes out the other ends up winning the game.

Kaleb: Making too many friends?
Kaleb has almost made too many friends in this game.  Come the merge, there could be a lot of betrayed people on the jury, feeling hurt that he voted them out.  He'll have to navigate his bonds wisely.

Julie: Good idea from her
I think it's a smart idea to consider targeting J.Maya over Sifu.  J.Maya is clearly the better social player, while Sifu is not a threat socially in any way.  Now J.Maya has an amulet, she's even more of a better person to take out.

And to our departed player...

Brando: Couldn't handle first conflict
It's a shame, but Brando couldn't handle drama around camp the first time his tribe goes to tribal.  He just wasn't cut out for the show.  It was nice seeing him bond with Drew over nerdy things, and I hope they are friends after the show.

All right, new power rankings, and what a surprise!  A new #1 again!  

13. J.Maya (-2)
12. Sifu (+2)
11. Bruce (+2)
10. Drew (-3)
9. Kendra (+1)
8. Jake (+1)
7. Dee (-3)
6. Katurah (0)
5. Austin (+3)
4. Julie (-3)
3. Emily (+2)
2. Kellie (+1)
1. Kaleb (+1)

Biggest rise: Austin (+3)
Biggest falls: Drew, Dee, and Julie (-3)

Surprising as it may seem, I have not had Kaleb #1 yet.  I was mostly worried about Lulu's weakness as a tribe before the swap.  The two remaining original Lulu are now in the top 3.  Meanwhile, three of OG Reba fall three spots, all for different reasons.  Julie simply fell because I just feel higher about Emily, Kellie, and Kaleb now.

After Episode 6 Four Word Game

Sifu: Upcoming boot or goat
If Sifu's team hadn't won immunity, he likely would've been considered.  As it is, he'll likely be a target in the next episode.  My thought is with Sifu is if he can survive this early merge portion, he has a chance to be a finale goat as he'll likely not be considered a threat to win.  Hey, it's $100k.  

Bruce: Clearly jealous of Kaleb
Bruce was jealous of Kaleb bonding with virtually everyone in the game while no one was talking to him. Uh, Bruce, Kaleb was making an effort to go speak to them.  You needed to as well.  Hopefully, the target shifts to Bruce next episode, and I think it will.  He did find an idol, but Bruce seems like the type to go home with an idol in his pocket.

Drew: Lucky player so far
I think Drew's been incredibly fortunate in this game.  He was put on a good tribe, with good, sane people.  He didn't get swap screwed.  And he got put on the better of the two mergatory teams.  But something tells me his luck is going to run out at some point.

Kendra: Finally got to eat!
Good for Kendra, I did feel bad for her there.  And like Bruce and Sifu, if she can survive these first few votes (since the three of them are varying degrees of annoying), she has a good shot of making the finale.  I'd put good money on her, Sifu, or Bruce being a finale goat.  

Jake: Name not even mentioned
It's usually a good sign that when you're one of only a handful of players who can be voted for, your name doesn't even come up once.  Seems like Jake's built some good, strong bonds and we saw him talking to Dee and Kellie tonight, I believe.  I think his stock's rising for me.

Dee: Gunning for Kaleb unwise
About the only thing I can remember from Dee was in the promo for the next episode how she is still gunning for Kaleb.  She doesn't know it then, but he's clearly the show's golden boy, so nothing good will come of her gunning for Kaleb again.  

Katurah: Chose the correct team
I probably would've chosen the other team, knowing the puzzle is the great equalizer.  However, the puzzles were incredibly easy, seeing as the answer to the word puzzle was on the first one.  Anyway, Katurah chose the correct one, and will she finally get her way and get Bruce out now that he'll become vulnerable?  Time will tell.

Austin: Got revenge for sandwich!
Austin got his revenge, being able to send J.Maya home on the revote and get vengeance for her denying him food.  I love this for him.  He also did get to eat at the merge feast, so good for him there as well.  He also smartly sacrificed his vote again to prolong his idol, in a tribal where his vote didn't really matter.

Julie: Getting lost in shuffle
I'm now losing faith in Julie's winning potential.  She was one of the least featured castaways this episode, which is a critical episode.  I don't see her being a target anytime soon, but her odds of being a finale go up while her odds of winning go down.

Emily: Warning him correct move
Emily made the smart decision in warning Kaleb, saying virtually everyone was gunning for him.  This now means they've basically saved each other, and could be bonded until the end.  I hope that's the case.  I was also glad to see Emily not be voted out, despite her name being thrown out like crazy by J.Maya.

Kellie: Laying low and studying
That's what I'm getting from Kellie, which is a good thing.  She's not sticking her neck out, she's listening to people and digesting things.  Exactly the kind of game I would play.  I like her chances still, but I'm unsure if she's my #1 yet.

Kaleb: Play of the ERA
Kaleb's SITD play was the best move of the new era, so far.  Crazy.  And here's what I'm thinking.  Surely he's not going to get targeted again so soon, is he?  Maybe he'll win immunity, or at least I hope so.  He's definitely got his work cut out for him.

And to our departed player...

J.Maya: Mergatory boot always forgettable
Here's a list of mergatory boots so far: Sydney, Lydia, Dwight, Josh, J.Maya.  All of those were purpled for an episode or two.  So that leads to their boot being a forgettable one, meaning we don't miss them after they're gone, because we never got much time with them to begin with. 

All right new post-merge power rankings!  How do things shape up?

12. Bruce (-1)
11. Sifu (+1)
10. Kendra (-1)
9. Julie (-5)
8. Kaleb (-7)
7. Drew (+3)
6. Dee (+1)
5. Katurah (+1)
4. Austin (+1)
3. Emily (0)
2. Jake (+6)
1. Kellie (+1)

Biggest rise: Jake (+6)
Biggest fall: Kaleb (-7)

Not too much change, other than Jake and Kaleb virtually switching spots.  I worry about Kaleb's threat level still being up there, despite his amazing Shot in the Dark save.  I now have yet another new #1 in Kellie, who I could see winning this game now.  Julie falls a bit as well as I really can't see her winning anymore.

After Episode 7 Four Word Game

Bruce: Still getting his way
Man, I feel like Bruce has gone from a guy you felt bad for, for having to be medically evacuated to now a villain.  He's still getting his way and might for the next few votes as well, but there's still no way he's winning.  No one respects him enough.

Kendra: Couldn't stick neck out
In order for Sifu to have been safe, Kendra would have to have stuck her neck out and ostracized herself from original Belo.  It wouldn't have been smart.  Seems like Kendra's in the mix and going with the flow, but is she dictating any votes?  I don't think so.

Julie: Heather to Dee's Erika
I made this connection earlier and I think it's pretty apt.  She and Dee this season are like Heather and Erika from 41.  Erika/Dee is emerging post-merge as a legitimate threat to win while Heather/Julie become invisible and are merely a sidekick.  It's hard to believe I had Julie #1 just three weeks ago.

Drew: He's becoming largely inconsequential
To me, it seems like Drew is just another number.  I don't think anyone views him as a serious threat to win.  A possible finale goat, joining Bruce, Kendra, and Julie.

Dee: Threat rising--all good
It was pointed out multiple times tonight that people see Dee's potential to win the game rising.  But I think she's in an extremely solid position.  Julie won't turn on her.  Drew and Austin likely won't.  She's got connections to other women, too.  She may be a threat, but very few willing to take her out.

Katurah: Wouldn't be used again
Katurah was fooled/used when Jake/Kaleb lied about Jake missing his ring, and when they came clean she realized it was a last ditch ploy to try to use her again.  Katurah decided she wouldn't be used again.  Probably better for her long term, although I wish she had forced a rock draw for the entertainment value.

Austin: New favorite, new target?
With Kaleb now out of the game, I worry Austin will become the new target for everyone, especially the women.  Although Austin is aligned with Julie and Dee and to an extent, Emily.  But the three Belo women could sway them, possibly.  His amulet is public knowledge.

Emily: Last Lulu, any shot?
It would make for an interesting story if Emily got to the end, being the last Lulu at Final 10 and still making it there.  Therefore, it might be hard for her, not having her #1 ally anymore.  Also, if she makes it to the end, will enough people like and respect her?  It's hard to say.

Jake: Appreciate the effort, man
Jake fought hard to keep Kaleb, and I appreciate his efforts in doing so.  He's playing hard.  Maybe a bit too hard.  Time will tell.  But I could definitely see the women turning on him, even the Belo women.  We will have to see if Julie can forgive him at all or if she will get Dee to gun for him.

Kellie: Sophie to Bruce's Coach
Another connection I made this season was that Kellie and Bruce are like Sophie and Coach.  Sophie put up with Coach because she knew a lot of people didn't take him seriously and she had a legit shot of beating him.  I think Kellie feels the same way.  Although, I don't think Kellie will be able to put up with Bruce all the way to the end.  Time will tell.  

And to our TWO departed players...

Sifu: Another purpled player screwed
Whenever there's a vote out that whoever goes is getting screwed, it's almost always the person that was featured least.  That's why when Jeff said the person voted out first will not be on the jury, I knew it was Sifu.  He's been under-edited and the showrunners obviously didn't want the audience to get too attached to him.  Sucks for Sifu that he's not on the jury because he got drawn to Kellie's team and not Dee's.  Luck just plays way too big a role on Survivor nowadays.

Kaleb: Favorite gone too soon
I hate how much the show featured Kaleb, only for him to finish 11th and barely make the jury.  Yes, his SitD play will forever be legendary, but it only saved him for one vote.  Hopefully Emily can do what he couldn't, but we will see.  He could be a huge presence on the jury for her.

All right, new power rankings!  The Top 10!  And a player returns to the #1 spot.

10. Drew (-3)
9. Julie (0)
8. Katurah (-3)
7. Kendra (+3)
6. Bruce (+6)
5. Austin (-1)
4. Jake (-2)
3. Emily (0)
2. Kellie (-1)
1. Dee (+5)

Biggest rise: Bruce (+6), also Dee (+5)
Biggest fall: Drew and Katurah (-3)

Oh boy.  Drew to me is a combination of a possible target and no shot of winning, so not a good combination.  Julie and Katurah have a very outside shot, but I believe both are safe for a while.  Bruce rises because I'm starting to think he might stay in the game for a while.  He has an idol, after all.  Austin through Kellie are interchangeable, but the guys are further down because they hinted at a girl's alliance in the promo for next week.  Dee reclaims her #1 spot, and she is sure sitting pretty.

After Episode 8 Four Word Game

Drew: Credit for big move?
It sure seemed like Drew's idea to shift the focus to Kellie so that they could safely split the votes at the next tribal council.  If he gets to the end, that's definitely something he'll bring up to try to showcase his win equity.

Julie: Don't underestimate this momma
She almost beat Bruce in the immunity challenge, and kudos to both of them for outlasting all the young folk.  She also get her fair amount of money for the auction, unlike Bruce.  And while she did "turn" on Kellie, I feel like Julie could be someone that doesn't get a lot of heat at a final tribal situation.  If she can get to the end against some players that aren't well-liked, she's got a shot...

Katurah: All around awful episode
First, she gets the fish eyes at the auction, the only person who unwillingly spent money on a bad food item.  Then, her biggest enemy, Bruce, wins immunity.  And to finish it off, she's left out of the vote and loses a close ally in Kellie.  Just a terrible episode.

Kendra: Third with sob story
Kendra got a "sob story" this episode, a package that showcases a player's past and why we should care about them due to a difficulty they faced in their past.  Kendra's was about finding her birth father, which was nice.  She joins Dee and Jake in getting them, AND... every winner of the new era has had a package/sob story like that.

Bruce: Stuck at the bottom
Man oh man Bruce is in an awful spot.  He likely plays his idol if he doesn't win immunity.  In hindsight, his immunity win saved Jake, not himself.  But he is still squarely at the bottom, with virtually no one wanting to work with him.  But he still has his idol.  And things can change quickly in Survivor.  

Austin: Sandwich revenge arc complete
Sure, he got revenge on J.Maya, but Kellie was the one who ultimately decided on sandwich or amulet.  Kellie even got a sandwich at the auction (with her margarita), so that must have rubbed salt in the wound.  Now Austin has two full idols, which means he's probably willing to play one for someone else, like Drew.

Jake: Saved by not naming?
Jake may have saved himself tonight; not sure if he realized it.  But in two instances he could have easily named someone to be a target but didn't.  First was when two people cornered him before tribal (Emily and someone else).  And then at tribal council, he could have thrown someone under the bus like Kaleb did.  But he didn't.  That'll also help him with the jury if he gets to the end.  Now he's got to make a bond with someone else besides Bruce to hopefully avoid being the casualty when Bruce plays his idol.

Emily: Splitting apart Reba key
In order for Emily to win, I think she'll need to get the original Reba's to turn on each other.  If she goes to the final 5 with them, she will be the target.  Fortunately, OG Belo is starting to crumble, but now she has to work on crumbling Reba.  If she does that, she could end up with the greatest game of the new era.

Dee: Still in good position
Dee is still in a great spot, with the two Reba guys as shields.  The only guy who really wants her out, Jake, has no ammunition to do so.  Did she make the right move in turning on the girls?  Hard to say.  I think Dee needs to take Julie to the end so that she can say Julie did every bad thing she did as well.

And to our departed player...

Kellie: Bruce dragged her down
Let this be a lesson to future Survivor players: Don't align with people who are unlikable targets.  They will only drag you down with them.  Kellie is likely still in the game if she turns on Bruce in the split tribal in the previous episode.  But instead, she takes out Sifu.  

New power rankings!  Of course, a bit of a shake-up.  

9. Jake (-5)
8. Bruce (-2)
7. Katurah (+1)
6. Kendra (+1)
5. Drew (+5)
4. Julie (+5)
3. Austin (+2)
2. Dee (-1)
1. Emily (+2)

Biggest rise: Drew and Julie (+5)
Biggest fall: Jake (-5)

And yet another new #1.  For the first time I have Emily there!  I can't deny it anymore; she's in a great spot.  She's avoiding the target and playing well.  If she gets a sob story, that seals it.  Jake drops due to having the highest chance of going home next episode, IMO.  Kaleb also survived a tribal it looked like he was going, only to go the next episode.  Will the same thing happen to Jake?  Bruce avoids the bottom spot only because of his idol.  Maybe he can go on an immunity run?  Honestly, that'd be hilarious.

After Episode 9 Four Word Game

Jake: Bigger fish to fry?
Perhaps the Reba 4, Emily, and Katurah (And I guess Bruce) all realized Jake isn't really a threat anymore.  I think he almost might be seen as a bit of a joke and someone easy to beat at the end, like Owen in 43.  Jake could slide by, but he may be being underestimated.  Also, I want to add: Jake was shown starting the fire this episode, which very well could be foreshadowing.

Bruce: He just keeps surviving
Hey, it's the name of the game, isn't it?  And if he made the end, man that would be a story.  It seems like the Reba's want to go to the end together, so imagine if Bruce were to sneak his way end.  If Bruce doesn't win immunity next week (which would be his 3rd straight), he better play his idol.

Katurah: What is her plan?
I don't get it.  She's now turned on Kendra and sided with the Reba's, but seriously, what is her winning plan or path?  She doesn't have one.  She'll either be an easy boot or a losing finalist.  No other option.

Drew: The fourth wheel, maybe?
Julie and Dee are close.  Julie said she'd never turn on Dee.  Dee and Austin are close.  Austin and Drew are fairly close, so Austin may be faced with a tough decision at some point.  I think Drew would be the odd man out if push came to shove.

Julie: Fighting a losing battle
She keeps losing to Bruce in challenges, but her sticking by Dee (which she indicated to us in this episode) is literally fighting a losing battle.  There's no way she beats her at the end, is there?  I, for one, would be surprised.  If she can wrangle Drew and turn on Dee and Austin (and somehow win) and drag a Bruce or Katurah or Jake to the end, she's got a shot... but that's not happening.

Austin: Biggest threat not seen
Seriously, Austin is one of the biggest threats we've had in a while, yet no one is seeing it.  He's likable, he's got two idols, he's good at challenges, and he's got close allies.  Dee is seen as more of a threat to win, which may be true at this point.  How Austin plays his idols will determine if he could beat Dee at the end.  If he takes her out, he may not need to play his idols correctly.

Dee: Got her way again
The vote tonight was between Jake and Kendra.  Julie and Emily wanted Jake.  However, Dee got her way again with Kendra being voted out.  Dee must have some kind of superior form of persuasion because it seems to work.  

Emily: Starting to lose ground
Reba is only getting tighter, and Emily has basically lost all ammunition to turn on them.  Yes, they could force a tie if she goes with the three remaining original Belo's, but they have two idols.  Emily's path is getting narrower, and while I still think she can win, I think we'd have to see Reba self-implode a bit in order for that to happen.

And to our departed player...

Kendra: Wasn't long for game
She had just lost a close ally in Kellie, and she really had no one left in the game.  Belo was fractured, and unless Reba wanted to turn on each other at this point and drag her to the end, Kendra had no shot.  

All right, new power rankings!  Have to really think about who may go soon and who is in good position...

8. Katurah (-1)
7. Bruce (+1)
6. Jake (+3)
5. Julie (-1)
4. Emily (-3)
3. Drew (+2)
2. Dee (0)
1. Austin (+2)

Biggest rise: Jake (+3)
Biggest fall: Emily (-3)

Katurah really has no numbers or close allies, and her most hated enemy is still in the game and probably willing to vote her out.  Jake rises because I think his threat level's gone down.  Drew rises above Emily because while I think Emily may still have more win equity, Drew has a better shot of getting to the end.  Austin reclaims the top spot as the man in the best position.  

After Episode 10 Four Word Game

Katurah: Finally got out Bruce!
After hearing all season about how much she dislikes Bruce, she finally got him out!  Took her long enough.  But I can barely see that padding her resumé at all.  I look at Katurah's game as a worse version of Emily's.  Also, I could relate to her panic attack a bit, and she definitely went through an emotional rollercoaster those two days.

Jake: Target or tag along?
Jake right now is walking that fine line between target and tag along/goat.  Owen did a similar thing in 43, which enabled him to get to the end, but he lost.  I would not have expected Jake to turn on Bruce after seeing their bond in the first few episodes, but that's Survivor for you.  

Julie: Winner stock rising, perhaps?
People consider her likable and she's getting more screen time.  If somehow Dee and Austin get taken out before FTC, and Julie makes it against say Drew and Katurah, she's got a shot.  It was good to see how the betrayal aspect of the game is getting to her, which may garner her some jury votes.  And while she did survive this last tribal council, her name has been brought up and her threat level is rising as well.

Emily: Padded resumé with that
There are times when a move is brought up at FTC and you can just feel the jury sway towards that person.  I think the move of Emily telling Bruce they'll gun for Julie is one of those moves.  She completely fooled him, he held onto his idol, and he's gone.  He was potential ammunition for Emily to use against the Reba 4, but I'm guessing Emily has a plan.  Also, we got a backstory for Emily, which I think is huge for her story.

Drew: Finale goat all along
Lest we forget Drew is just 21 years old.  I can't see him winning over a jury.  The way he handled Jake throwing his name out was not very mature, and I could see a Final Tribal Council getting to him.  Look for Drew to possibly be taken to the end as a goat.  I used to think Julie was the likeliest for that, but now I think it's Drew.

Dee: A threat getting by
Dee just continues to get on by, thanks to the fact that Austin and Julie seem dead set on not turning on her.  May we see the most difficult betrayal ever?  I just get this feeling someone (Julie, Austin) is going to have a very tough decision to make before it's all over.

Austin: Needs a signature move
Austin needs a signature move if he wants to win.  He's got the ammunition for it.  Oddly, we didn't see him get his idol back from Julie.  Not that he needs it.  However, he's got to do something to pad his game, or he's getting 2nd at best to Dee or Emily.

And to our departed player...

Bruce: Always play your idol!
I cannot stress this enough.  Better to play it and try to get safety another way than to hold onto it and get voted out.  I cannot believe how many people have been voted out with idols in their pocket, with Bruce joining that exhaustive list.  If you are at all uncertain, especially when you don't have the numbers, play it.  Glad to see Bruce did fairly well with his 2nd try.

New power rankings!  Some things stay largely the same, but a couple notable changes.

7. Katurah (+1)
6. Jake (0)
5. Drew (-2)
4. Austin (-3)
3. Julie (+2)
2. Dee (0)
1. Emily (+3)

Biggest rise: Emily (+3)
Biggest fall: Austin (-3)

Jake and Katurah are now at the bottom, with Emily in the mix but not seemingly a threat to the Reba 4.  Drew and Austin are in a fairly good spot, but I can't see either winning at this moment.  Dee stays in the same spot for the third straight week.  Emily reclaims the top spot, as this move of fooling Bruce is potentially a game-winning move.

After Episode 11 Four Word Game

Katurah: Perfect episode, got backstory
All the content we got from Katurah tonight was good.  We got her backstory, we got some good in-game content, and we even got her mentioning how she's still keeping her profession close to her chest.  All in all, I can say this was as good of an episode as she could've gotten.  Also, keep in mind Katurah has some friends on the jury.

Jake: May get sympathy vote
Jake is clearly, at this point, going to be taken to the end as a finale goat.  No one thinks that he can beat them.  Jake may get a sympathy vote at the end, but honestly, he's likely a zero vote finalist.  Since he's a lawyer, he may be able to sway one person, such as Bruce, but that'd be it.

Drew: Immunity win saved him...?
It may have.  Since Julie had the lone deciding vote, hearing Drew turn on her may have made her take him out.  She likely spared Austin due to his bond with Dee, but would she have spared Drew?  That immunity win came in very clutch, I think.

Austin: Between rock, hard place
When Austin heard about the move on Julie, he was put in one of the worst positions a player can be in.  Either he keeps it a secret and blindsides Dee, or he tells her and the plan changes.  He ended up telling her, which I'll give him credit, he did it very delicately, but that resulted in Julie playing the idol and Emily leaving.

Julie: Target's on her now
Julie with a successful idol play and taking out the biggest jury threat in Emily makes her an even bigger target.  Surely Jake, Katurah, and Drew will try again?  Looks like the tough decisions aren't done for Dee and Austin.

Dee: Win equity not clear
To me, Dee's win equity is definitely higher than Jake, but it's hard to say how much it is.  I'm not sure if she beats Julie, Austin, or even Katurah at this point.  She's made tight bonds with Julie and Austin, so unless Drew and everyone else turn on her, she's making the finale.

And to our departed player...

Emily: Poor choices this episode
Emily was playing such a great game without really any super strong allies, and this episode just sunk her.  She definitely should've kept quiet about how she misled Bruce.  She also probably should've tried the puzzle, at least.  It's not very often one vote would've saved you.  In this case, Emily's vote was negated by an idol, anyway.  And she should've maybe tried to steer the vote onto Jake, instead of the risky move against Julie.

New power rankings!  Second to last one of the season, I think.  And I'm shaking things up again.

6. Austin (-2)
5. Jake (+1)
4. Drew (+1)
3. Dee (-1)
2. Julie (+1)
1. Katurah (+6)

Biggest rise: Katurah (+6)
Biggest fall: Austin (-2)

Yep, I went there.  Austin faces a tough road, and even if he gets to the end, I don't think the jury will respect his game.  Giving Julie his idol hurts his chances.  Jake's a finale goat, unless he can get to the end against the two guys.  Drew won't be respected by the jury, although I could see a case for him.  Dee falls a bit because we're still not seeing her winning content.  Julie may have just gotten all but one vote, but I think the heat cools off on her, and if she can just get to the end, she has a good shot.  I think she'll be the jury's most respected Reba player, even over Dee.  And Katurah... wow.  She goes from last to first in one episode.  She's got friends on the jury.  We saw her form bonds with Kaleb, Kendra, and Kellie, and I think Bruce is mature enough to respect her game.  I have Katurah as my winner pick now.  I think the Reba 4 may vastly underrate her.

After Episode 12 Four Word Game

Austin: No shot of winning
Austin really has zero shot of winning this game with the game he's played.  He'd have to do a complete 180 in the final two tribals, and even then, it probably wouldn't be enough.  If he gets to the end, which is very possible, he's a losing finalist.  He shouldn't have told Dee about the vote on Julie; he chose his heart over his brain.  Austin's game reminds me a lot of Xander's: too many foolish mistakes.

Jake: One obstacle in way
And her name is Dee.  If Jake can spearhead a vote to get out Dee at 5, or if he can take her out in fire at 4, I think he can win this season.  He found an idol, so unless he's a complete moron he's guaranteed final 4.  If he could somehow use that idol to get out Dee, that would be his winning move.  Can he do it?

Dee: Clear frontrunner to win
Dee's secret "alliance" with Julie could be huge to bring up at final tribal, and she's still got two people in the game who basically flat out refuse to vote her out.  Best yet, she doesn't even have to turn on Austin to win, although she might have to on Julie.  

Julie: Non threat getting votes
That's the worst of both worlds.  Everyone says she's a threat to win, and yeah, maybe she beats Austin and Katurah, but there are more F3's that result in Julie losing than ones that result in her winning.  And she's still a target, one that Jake and Katurah may turn on.

Katurah: Couldn't continue winner arc
I foolishly made Katurah my #1 after last episode.  She just hasn't done enough.  I think Jake is more likely to garner the former Belo votes, should Jake and Katurah both make F3.  

And to our departed player...

Drew: Winning path never clear
I struggle to see a path where Drew could have won this game.  If he stays Reba strong, he loses to basically anyone else in that group.  If he turns on them and goes with Belo, will now Reba won't vote for him at the end.  It was a lose-lose situation for Drew, and I think he did the best with what he was given.  He might do better on a returnee season, if given the chance.

All right, final power rankings of the season.  Who is most likely to win?

5. Julie (-3)
4. Katurah (-3)
3. Austin (+3)
2. Jake (+3)
1. Dee (+2)

Biggest rise: Jake (+3) and Austin (+3)
Biggest fall: Katurah (-3) and Julie (-3)

There we have it.  In likeliness of winning, we have Dee, Jake, Austin, Katurah, and Julie.  Dee is the clear frontrunner, not only because she has the best chances of winning a F3 should she get there, but she also has a great path there, with two other people not wanting to vote her out (and possibly taking her to the end at the F4 tribal).  Katurah falls from grace for me.  A win for her is not out of the question, but would be an even bigger surprise than Gabler's, at this point.  Julie somehow is being considered a threat while I don't think she's have too much respect of the jury.  Bad combination.

Now, like I've done in seasons past, I'm going to take the current jurors and rank each of the F5 for them based on how much I think they like them.  These are hunches just based on what I've seen on the show.

Kaleb: Dee, Katurah, Jake, Austin, Julie
Kellie: Katurah, Dee, Jake, Julie, Austin
Kendra: Jake, Dee, Julie, Katurah, Austin (Future Brian here... oops.  She voted for Austin.)
Bruce: Jake, Austin, Katurah, Dee, Julie
Emily: Austin, Dee, Katurah, Jake, Julie 
Drew: Austin, Dee, Jake, Katurah, Julie

So I'll give 5 points if someone is someone else's favorite, 4 if they're 2nd favorite, and so on.  Here's how they'd stand here:

Dee: 23
Jake: 21
Katurah: 19
Austin: 18
Julie: 9

Wow, really surprised me how poorly Julie did.  But Dee with the early lead, but it's surprisingly close.  Hopefully that means we have closer than a 7-1-0 vote this season.  Now let's see how the Final 5 views everyone else in the Final 5, in case they get voted out (or eliminated at fire) before Final 3.

Dee: Julie, Austin, Katurah, Jake
Jake: Katurah, Dee, Austin, Julie
Katurah: Jake, Dee, Julie, Austin
Austin: Dee, Julie, Jake, Katurah
Julie: Dee, Austin, Katurah, Jake

Now using 4 as the favorite and 3 as the 2nd favorite, we add those to their previous scores and get...

Dee: 23 + 14 = 37
Jake: 21 + 8 = 29
Katurah: 19 + 9 = 28
Austin: 18 + 9 = 27
Julie: 9 + 10 = 19

The order does not change, but Dee gets out to a bigger lead.  Safe to say, if she makes the final tribal council, she's likely winning.  I had Carson with the most points last season, but he didn't make it to final tribal council.  So if that's the case again, where Dee doesn't make FTC, look for Jake to maybe pull it out.  That's all I have for now.  I'll update with a final Four Word Game after the finale and finish with some closing thoughts.

After Finale Four Word Game:

Julie: Writing was on wall
Julie's name had come up multiple times, and like Kaleb, she couldn't save herself from the majority vote again.  I give Julie props, she did a lot better than most people thought she would, although I had a good feeling about her pre-season.

Katurah: Biggest blown opportunity--yikes!
Katurah will forever wonder how the game would've shaken out had she voted for Dee at the Final 5 tribal council.  She definitely would have had a better chance.  Hard to believe the winner was that close to being voted out.  Maybe Katurah wins Final 4 immunity, since Austin and Jake kept knocking their stacks over.  But she likely still does not win the game.  

Jake: Revealing idol doomed him
It seriously did.  Otherwise, they would've piled their votes on Jake, he could've dictated that vote and padded his resumé.  Why did he have to blab about it?  Was it the wine?  His idol and winning fire-making still allowed him to get to the end, but if he had just whipped out his idol at final 5, negated 3 or 4 votes, and sent Dee packing, he likely wins.

Austin: Chose love over money
If you ever enter into a showmance, unless you get blindsided, you'll have to choose between love or the game.  Austin chose love.  He refused to turn on Dee or even keep a secret from her.  Hey, at least he got 2nd place, and the girl he likes won it all.  That's not too shabby.

Dee: Best female since Kim
Dee is one of the strongest female winners in Survivor history when you look at her all-around game.  The only thing she's missing is an idol/advantage play, but to me, an idol or advantage is like icing.  You don't need it, and yeah it can help, but you can succeed without it.  Dee had a great physical game in challenges, her social game was top-notch, and strategically she is up there with the likes of Kim, Sarah, Sophie, etc.  Fantastic game.  

Well, that wraps up Season 45!  All in all very good season boosted by the 90 minute episodes.  Likely the best of the new era, but still plenty of room to improve.  We had two "quits", and the winner ended up being too predictable, but hard to find many faults after that.  Looking forward to 46, I'll be back with a pre-season post in January or February.  

Survivor 45 Preview and Predictions

 Survivor 45 is just a few days away, so with that, I have to make my predictions for the season.  Just like in past seasons, I'm going to go through each cast member and pick a short range (range of 6 spots, so 14-9, 10-5, etc.). Last season, I placed 8/18 correct, which was two better than the previous season.  I hope to improve yet again; let's try to get at least half!  As always, I'll go in alphabetical order by first name, and I'll give some comparables to each Survivor, both new and old era.  Finally, I wanted to add this time that what I use to base these opinions and predictions on are just their answers to their questionnaire and what Survivor content creators have said about them so far.  I don't even watch their video interviews.  So with that, let's get started.

Austin Li Coon, 26, Grad Student from Chicago, IL
Comparables: Owen Knight, Malcolm Freberg
A lot of people are high on Austin, and while I understand where they're coming from, I don't particularly agree.  I'd be shocked if he didn't make the merge, but I'll be almost as surprised if he wins.  He'll likely be a mid-merge boot or perhaps even a losing finalist like Owen.  He does, after all, see himself like Owen.  I'm just not envisioning a winning game from him.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 2nd.  So close!  I really felt like Jake deserved more votes, but it is what it is.

Brandon "Brando" Meyer, Software Developer from Seattle, WA
Comparables: Hai Giang, Yul Kwon
An Asian in the tech field, seems fairly soft-spoken, so I can't say I see him winning, although Yul did.  But that was a very different era.  I could see Brando as someone people don't want to target, but I can't see him grabbing the title of sole Survivor.  He even could be an early boot if he doesn't fit in well with his tribe, which is a real possibility.  I'll try to split the difference.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
CORRECT, 14th.  But barely.  He might've only gotten as far as he did because his tribe kept winning immunity.

Brandon Donlon, Content Creator from Sicklerville, NJ
Comparables: Jacob Derwin, Zeke Smith
Brandon's one of those types of guys that we all know someone like in real life, it seems.  I think he's got surprising amount of variance to his game, meaning I feel he could be an early boot, like a Jacob Derwin or Daniel Strunk.  His personality will have to shine through to people, and I'm worried it won't.  But since he was featured so much in the promo for this season, I have to lean more towards him lasting far.  Maybe he's our loser at firemaking?
Predicted finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 17th. He was an early boot after all.  Couldn't handle the game physically.

Bruce Perrault, 47, Insurance Agent from Warwick, RI
Comparables: Rocksroy Bailey, Bruce Perrault
Hey, he's our first returning player of the new era, who better to compare him to than himself?  Anyway, I again don't see Bruce doing particularly well, although I will admit I think he has a better shot with this cast than 44's.  If Bruce is to win, he'd have to pull off a game like Mike Gabler's.  Make one move, go underwater, and then emerge at the end.  But I can't see it happening.  Bruce will get further than he did on 44 (how could he not?), but not much further.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th
CORRECT, 8th.  Although barely.  But in my defense, he'd have gone sooner without those immunity wins.

Dee Valladares, 26, Entrepeneur from Miami, FL
Comparables: Tori Meehan, Victoria Baamonde
If any woman is going to be a villainess this season, it's likely Dee.  She wants to play like Jesse and Tony, and I feel like there is going to be a vote where she gets found out and left out.  I like her chances of making the merge(atory), but I don't like her chances of getting much further.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
WRONG, 1st.  Whoops!  Also, she was not really a villainess.

Drew Basile, 23, Grad Student from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Ryan Ulrich, Zach Wurternberger
Nerdy, skinny white guy, we've never had that on Survivor!  We've only had one winner of this archetype in Cochran, and I don't think that's changing anytime soon.  Drew has a good enough head on his shoulders that I think and hope he uses enough to survive the first vote or two, but I can't see him forming too many or too close of bonds out there.  Sorry, Drew.
Predicted finish: 15th-10th
WRONG, 6th.  I did not see him fitting in with a tight alliance like the Reba 4.  But I knew he wasn't going to win.

Emily Flippen, 28, Investment Analyst from Laurel, MD
Comparables: Aubry Bracco, Frannie Marin
Scratch that about Dee, if any woman is going to be a villainess it's going to be Emily.  She compares herself to Chaos Kass, and describes herself as off-putting.  When the cast first got leaked, I really wanted to make Emily my winner pick, but I can't see us having an off-putting winner.  In fact, due to the string of women (especially young) being booted early in recent seasons, I think I have to pick her going early as well.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
WRONG, 7th.  Although you gotta say, Kaleb saved her from the fate I had predicted for her.

Hannah Rose, 33, Therapist from Baltimore City, MD
Comparables: Kelley Wentworth, Lindsey Cascaddan
I can't say I see Hannah doing too well.  She's 33, so she's actually older than over half the cast, although she is the perfect age for a winner.  But she just comes off to me kinda weird.  Like a less likable Carolyn.  I also think Hannah is between a rock and a hard place.  If she plays too well, she'll be taken out for being a threat.  If she doesn't play well enough, she'll just be a losing finalist.  That's if she makes the merge, which I'm gonna say she probably won't.
Predicted finish: 16th-11th
WRONG, 18th.  I did not see her essentially quitting.  Dang.  At least I correctly predicted her likely not making the merge.

Jake O'Kane, 26, Attorney from Boston, MA
Comparables: Kane Fritzler, Adam Klein
I'm going on a limb, sort of.  I think Jake will do very well.  If he doesn't win, he'll be like a Jesse or Omar and be a huge threat to win.  I think he'll be able to downplay his threat level, at least until the end.  I really like how much he was featured in the promo.  An early boot, he should not be.
Predicted finish: 5th-1st
CORRECT, 3rd.  He didn't exactly do "very well", he was more the Owen of the season that I thought Austin would be.  Still, got his placement correct.

Janani "J.Maya" Krishnan Jha, 24, Singer from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: Swati Goel, Sara Wilson
How long before she annoys her tribe with her singing?  For whatever reason, Indian women (Swati, Karishma) have not done particularly well on Survivor, and I can't see J.Maya doing much better.  There's the culture difference and just the egotism solo singers tend to have.  I hate to say it, but I don't envision a long run in this game for her.  In fact, it could be extremely short.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 13th.  Barely.  But I'd argue she'd have been more in the middle if her tribe went to a pre-merge tribal before the swap.

Julie Alley, 49, Estate Attorney from Brentwood, TN
Comparables: Lindsay Carmine, Heather Aldrete
Another older blonde lady.  But I don't think we should write this one off so fast.  I like how she works with both estates and in the legal field, meaning she is very good at dealing with people.  If she can downplay her age and not cost her tribe in challenges, she has a legitimate shot.  Well, to at least be a runner-up.  Denise from Philippines is still the oldest female winner at 41.  
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
CORRECT, 5th.  She did well at downplaying her threat level for a while, but it did catch up to her.  She did just as well as I thought she would, honestly.

Kaleb Gebrewold, 29, Software Salesman from Vancouver, BC
Comparables: Jeremy Collins, Bill Posley
Kaleb seems to be someone who might play at least a slightly villainous game, and I'm here for it.  So with that, I think he'll do somewhere in between Jeremy's 2nd chance game and Bill's game.  I only chose Bill for the hair.  Anyway, I think he might have an epic elimination at a tribal council and be a huge stamp on someone's resume.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 11th.  So close!  He should've made it, damnit!

Katurah Topps, 35, Civil Rights Attorney from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Drea Wheeler, Nneka Ejere
Katurah to me is like if you took some of Drea's athleticism and gave her more likability.  Or if you made Nneka better at challenges.  Either way, I think Katurah's in it for the long haul.  I think she'll blend in but not be seen as a major threat.  But she may be seen as a threat late, or she may be beaten by someone late who played a better game.  Hard to say.  But I'd be very surprised if she flamed out early.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
CORRECT, 4th.  She kinda was what I described.  She was not seen as a major threat.

Kellie Nalbandian, 30, Critical Care Nurse from New York, NY
Comparables: Ellie Scott, Sydney Segal
A lot of people are high on Kellie, and I don't blame them.  But people have been oh so wrong before.  I remember hearing Ellie was going to be a major player, and she became the first merge boot.  Same goes for Sydney.  I think the same fate may be in store for Kellie.  I'll lean more towards the side of her at least making the merge, but I get this feeling a group is going to form to take her out.  A Parvati 2.0, we can never have.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
CORRECT, 10th.  Right in the middle!  Although, it was looking like she'd get further until her blindside.  She wasn't a Parvati, more of a Sophie.

Kendra McQuarrie, 31, Bartender from Steamboat Springs, CO
Comparables: Tiffany Seely, Alison Raybould
I have a bad feeling about Kendra.  I don't think people will like her as much as she thinks they will.  She compares herself to Carolyn, but I'm guessing people will not find her quirks as endearing as they found Carolyn's.  She could be a very early boot, or someone people get tired of during the merge portion of the game.  I'm leaning toward the former, but I'll go somewhere in the middle.
Predicted Finish: 14th-9th
CORRECT, 9th.  Although barely, but hey, it still counts.

Nicholas "Sifu" Alsup, 30, Gym Owner from O'Fallon, IL
Comparables: Ryan Medrano, Jonathan Young
We have this season's token challenge beast.  Historically, both recent and distant past, these types of players haven't done particularly well on the show.  Their lack of a social game ends up costing them.  I do think Sifu will have a better social game than Ryan or Jonathan.  I mean, how could you not?  But I don't think it'll match his physical game.  He'll certainly be kept around for the pre-merge, but after that, it's anyone's guess.
Predicted Finish: 11th-6th
WRONG, 12th. So close again!  

Sabiyah Broderick, 28, Truck Driver from Jacksonville, NC
Comparables: Cirie Fields, Claire Rafson
I struggled with the comparables on this one, clearly.  I ended up using who she compared herself to in Cirie.  Anyway, Sabiyah's a hard one to place.  She grew up with four brothers, served in the Marine Corps, and is now a truck driver.  She's probably the toughest person that'll be out there, man or woman.  I like her to get past the merge, as I highly doubt she'll be a liability in challenges, but after that, it's anyone's guess.  I'll go on a limb and say people will like her and her story and toughness will resonate with people.  I can't see people thinking she's a huge strategic threat.  But I can see people liking her story at the end.
Predicted Finish: 5th-1st
WRONG, 16th.  This one hurts...

Sean Edwards, 35, School Principal from Provo-Orem, UT
Comparables: Romeo Escobar, Gio Bustamante
Sean is one of those very high-variance players like Romeo or Gio.  Romeo got good control of his starting tribe, and he laid low and was able to get all the way to the end.  Gio thought he had control but did not and it cost him.  I think Sean will more likely suffer a fate similar to Gio's, although if he was a losing finalist, that wouldn't surprise me, either.  If Sean is on the outs early, he'll be in huge trouble.  
Predicted Finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 15th.  And right in the middle, too!

With that, let's make a boot order based on those placements!

18th: J.Maya
17th: Sean
16th: Emily
15th: Hannah
14th: Drew
13th: Kendra
12th: Brando
11th: Kellie
10th: Bruce
9th: Dee
8th: Sifu
7th: Kaleb
6th: Brandon
5th: Austin
4th: Katurah
3rd: Julie
2nd: Jake
1st: Sabiyah

Going with another African queen in Sabiyah!  She'll be my third black female as my winner pick in the new era, after Maryanne (42) and Lauren (44).  My winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, and 5th.  That's an average placement of 4.75, not too shabby.  I just love her story, how she's blue collar, and her background in the Marines.  My next closest winner pick was Jake, but I feel like he won't get enough votes at the end against certain people.  Granted, I have yet to see any of them play, but just a gut feeling.  

As for actual winners, my preseason placement for them has been 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), 18th (Gabler), and 3rd (Yam-Yam).  Hmmm, 3rd twice, that could be a good sign for Julie.  

I will update as this season goes along as each person gets voted out.  Again, let's try to do better than 8/18 last season!

TOTAL: 9/18.  Hey, I did better than 8/18!  Even small wins are wins!  However, my winner pick in Sabiyah flamed out so early, but that's why your winner pick should come from a strong tribe, and not one of the worst in Survivor history.  I do wonder how she would've done if she was on Belo or Reba.  Oh well.