Two big trades have been made so far this off-season for the Mariners; two trades that their fans have ridiculed the front office for making. First was Eugenio Suarez to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a backup catcher and a reliever. Then Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, and Evan White were sent to the Atlanta Braves for a AAAA-type pitcher (good in minors, bad in majors) and a solid relief pitching prospect. Both moves have been seen as ways of shedding payroll. Why would they do this? Let me explain.
First off, there is no salary cap in MLB like there is in the NFL. Owners are free to let their GMs spend as much as they want. They'll just have to foot the bill for any salaries/bonuses they hand out. It seems in the Mariners case that ownership has restricted the front office of Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander, who definitely would like to spend on a few big bats, but may have needed to shed some payroll first in order to be under a certain budget. This isn't what fans of a team want to hear. You should want your owner to allow your GM to spend as much as they need to in order to field the best team possible. Limiting them only limits their chances of building a successful team.
But let's look at the good. We haven't lost a ton. Eugenio Suarez regressed in 2023 after a very solid 2022. His OPS was down from .791 to .714, and his league-leading strikeout totals rose further. He did play gold glove-caliber defense, but his offensive numbers still dropped, especially his power. Jerry Dipoto made the comment that they wanted to be a more contact-focused offense, but my question is this: Why acquire high strikeout guys in the first place? Jerry chose to trade for Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez, known high-strikeout guys. Perhaps his focus has changed, but that's not altogether encouraging.
And of the three players we sent to the Braves, none were really huge impact players. Yes, Kelenic still has a bit of potential, but he had two and a half seasons to realize it with us and just couldn't. He had one hot stretch in early 2023, but that's it. He's been largely a bust offensively. He also strikes out a lot, like Suarez. Marco was a back-of-the-rotation starter, who was hurt a huge chunk of 2023. He was the longest-tenured Mariner, but he had reached his ceiling, and his ceiling quite frankly wasn't good enough for our rotation anymore. And Evan White battled injuries and offensive inconsistency and lost his job to Ty France. He wasn't going to regain his spot.
So, we shed some dead weight, honestly. Suarez and Hernandez (who left in Free Agency) were occasional good middle-of-the-order hitters, but just struck out too much. That led to too many times where all we needed was a ball put in play and they struck out. Marco was a lot of money for little return, and Evan White and Kelenic could never fully figure out hitting with us.
But now let's look at the bad. There are a ton of holes on this team. Both corner outfield spots, DH, third base, and second base all need to be addressed. There's also the fact we could use another starter with Robbie Ray hurt (*cough cough* Blake Snell! *cough*). We should not be going into 2024 with our middle-of-the-lineup players being France and Raleigh. This team, as it stands now, would certainly regress in 2024 if no major additions were made.
So we can only hope and pray as Mariners fans that Jerry and Justin have a plan. I'm hoping that they were given the luxury of increasing payroll at least a bit. Perhaps they did the math and realized the guys they wanted to sign or extend after a trade would require more financial room than they already had. But just because they have their eyes on a few players, doesn't mean they'll get them. I worry they may have made this room unnecessarily, and they might strike out on acquiring some big names. This off-season, simply saying "We tried" is not good enough.
Our dream, of course, is to see big name after big name acquired by the Mariners. We want to see the social media posts of "Welcome to Seattle, ____!" for a lot of household names. We do not want to see it for players along the likes of Tommy LaStella, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock. Of course, not every good player is available in free agency, and some will require a trade to acquire. I just hope we don't mortgage our future in the hopes of getting back to the post-season. That was attempted and failed at too many times from 2002-2021.
The rest of this off-season will be hugely telling for this team and its future. Jerry and Justin have their work cut out for them. I think this is the single most important off-season of their Mariners' careers because a failure this off-season will likely eventually cost them their jobs. I'm sure they're aware of the magnitude of this off-season. Simply put, an abysmal showing this off-season, and they should not be surprised if ticket and merch sales drop. At that point, none of us should spend any extra money on this team. But a good showing will bring this fanbase back around and instill hope for 2024.
Showing posts with label Major. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Major. Show all posts
Monday, December 4, 2023
Monday, March 27, 2023
2023 Outlook for Seattle Mariners Players
The 2023 MLB season starts this Thursday, and while I've already made my predictions for the season, I have yet to talk in-depth about my favorite team, the Seattle Mariners. I'm going to go through each of the players expected to make the Opening Day Roster and say what I expect from them. I'm later going to use these expectations and give them grades at the All-Star break and at the end of the season.
PITCHERS
Matt Brash:
I expect Brash to have an improved 2023, becoming one of our more dominant relievers. I'd love to see him either be THE guy we use to face tough bats, or be a guy we can stretch out to 2 innings if need be.
Luis Castillo:
Luis will be in his first full season as a Mariner, and he'll be our #1. I expect Luis to keep us in a lot of low-scoring ball games (think that extra innings game against the Yankees last year). I would love to see an All-Star nod for him, but not making it wouldn't be the biggest disappointment, either.
Diego Castillo:
All I want is control from Diego from start to finish. Now he's going to get wild at times, but his games where he loses control need to be few and far between. And we cannot afford him to go on streaks (like he did at the start of last year) where his ERA is in the double digits.
Matt Festa:
Festa's a good, all-around reliever and I hope he stays that way. He's like Brash but without as nasty of stuff. I'd love to see him close a game or two.
Chris Flexen:
It looks like Flexen will start the year in the pen, but will fill in as a starter when necessary (double-headers, injuries, etc.). This will be HUGE. As long as Flex doesn't let when or how he's pitching affect him, I'd look for him to be one of our more important pitchers this season. He could also be a very valuable trade piece at the deadline.
Logan Gilbert:
Logan started out red-hot last April. I was thinking Cy Young. But alas, he cooled off. I'm not expecting Logan to be THAT good, but to be near it and to be near it for longer would be ideal. Imagine if Logan shows some overall signs of improvement, and is only the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on our team? Wow...
Marco Gonzales:
Because of the acquisition of pitching and promoting through the minors, Marco has gone from our #1 to our #5 in just three seasons. Crazy. And he's handled it like the ultimate professional. I expect Marco to be one of the league's best #5 starters, consistently putting out quality (or near quality) starts of 6IP, 3 runs or less.
Trevor Gott:
I'm not expecting a ton from Gott, a newcomer. I just don't want him to suck. Be on par with Festa and Castillo, and I'll be happy.
George Kirby:
Kirby arrived after Gilbert, but his ceiling is higher. I expect George to improve on 2022 and be our second best pitcher (if not best) in his first FULL season (he started in May last season). I wouldn't be surprised to see an All-Star nod for George, which would be reason to give him an A at the break.
Andres Munoz:
It'll be interesting to see how Servais handles Munoz this season. Hopefully he doesn't put too much on him, like he seemed to do in the playoffs. If Munoz's stuff can be just as lethal as last season, I'll be happy.
Penn Murfee:
Unfortunately Penn had the distinction of being the pitcher that allowed the Astros go-ahead home run in the 18th inning of game 3 of the ALDS. I don't think too many fans hold a grudge against him. I hope he can shake that and that it doesn't affect how he pitches in 2023.
Robbie Ray:
Robbie has been working on a new pitch, I believe. We need him to have a better 2023 than he did 2022. He doesn't need to be a Cy Young candidate, just someone good enough to be in our Top 3 starters (which he wasn't last year).
Paul Sewald:
Sewald was our defacto closer last season, and he wasn't perfect, but he was solid. I hope some of the burden is taken off of his shoulders and he's given some lower-impact innings.
CATCHERS
Tom Murphy:
The Murph is back! He was our starter, but now he'll be backing up The Big Dumper. I expect Murph to put up solid numbers and start at least 40-60 games, hopefully.
Cal Raleigh:
The Big Dumper had such a great 2022 season, the highlight of course being his playoff-clinching walk-off home run. If he can improve his average slightly and still hit dingers, I'll be happy.
INFIELDERS
J.P. Crawford:
J.P. has had up-and-down seasons the last few years. I hope his average can climb (with the ban of the shift) and he can hit well from the bottom of the lineup. I hope he hits well enough for Servais to consider moving him up to 1 or 2, but I won't hold my breath. I also want his defense to improve well enough to earn him a Gold Glove nomination.
Ty France:
Let's have a season where Ty plays fully healthy, ok? The bigger bases will help with avoiding collisions. I do expect Ty to have a great year if he can stay healthy. A repeat All-Star appearance would be great, but the Mariners haven't had many of those in recent memory.
Eugenio Suarez:
Suarez had as great of season as we could've hoped in 2022. I hope him playing in the WBC doesn't mean he tires out at the end of the year. If he can continue to be a force in the middle of our lineup, I'll be happy.
Kolten Wong:
Wong is more of a defensive player than an offensive powerhouse, so I won't be counting on his bat too much. But I would love to see his average jump a bit from last season. I'm also looking forward to all the sweet double plays he and J.P. will turn.
OUTFIELDERS
Sam Haggerty:
"Swaggerty" was a vital tool for Servais last season, and I hope he continues to be. We will likely see him take over for Hernandez in the outfield late in games (like he did for Winker last year). I also hope to see him play some more second base, a position he is capable of handling.
Teoscar Hernandez:
Teoscar will hopefully be a force in the middle of our lineup, much like Suarez last season. I'm looking forward to seeing him playing alongside his DR countryman in Julio. Hopefully his defense won't be a liability and we'll see some clutch knocks from him.
Jarred Kelenic:
Listen, JK seems to be as ready as ever. He had a FANTASTIC spring. He seems focused and locked in. We know he has speed, defense, and a cannon arm. If he can hit above .200 (.220+?) and hit dingers, (on pace for 20-30), he will be a consistent starter. There's nothing more Mariner fans want than to see JK succeed in a big way.
AJ Pollock:
AJ will likely start against lefties in left field, giving Kelenic a breather every now and then. He also might get a start at DH if no one else needs it. I hope he can provide a veteran bat, hit somewhat decently, and give Servais a reason to keep him in the lineup.
Julio Rodriguez:
Man, what a year he had last season. Can we expect bigger things in 2023? Why not? Julio is the face of this team, and we are counting on him to be an even bigger force in 2023. Provided he plays decently, a repeat 2023 All-Star appearance is a given, considering he is now a household name.
Well, there you have it. I know I didn't get too much into numbers, but I didn't want to just to get disappointed. I know I also didn't predict them to make the playoffs, but if most of these guys can meet my reasonable expectations for them, I see no reason why they cannot prove me wrong. I'm stoked and I'm looking forward to a great 2023 season. GO MARINERS!!!!
Monday, March 6, 2023
My 2023 MLB Predictions
It's about that time of year! The MLB season officially gets underway later this month, so I got to get my predictions out.
Like last year, I'm going to predict the order of each division (no win or loss totals), the wild card teams, and I'll run through the playoffs. Last year, I correctly picked the Mariners to end their playoff drought, and I even got their playoff seeding right (#5)! I'll also pick the team leaders for statistical categories and All-Stars. Let's hope I do better in that department this year. Just a refresher: I had Frazier leading in average, JP leading in stolen bases, Ray leading in ERA, and Winker, Haniger, and Ray as All-Stars. Oops! Without further ado, the 2023 MLB predicted standings:
NL EAST
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies*
3. New York Mets*
4. Miami Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
Comment: In the highly competitive NL East (at least with the first three teams), I have the Braves winning the division. They lost Dansby Swanson but still have a great core with Riley, Acuna, and Harris. The Phillies will be a strong wild-card team after acquiring Trea Turner. The Mets did get Verlander, but he shows his age, and the Mets take a small step back.
NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Comment: This is likely the worst division in baseball. The Brewers and Cardinals will fight for the division, but the Cards have too much firepower with Goldschmidt and Arenado. The retirements of Pujols and Yadi will open up spots for younger players to emerge. The Cubs will be slightly better, and could possibly challenge for a wild card spot.
NL WEST
1. San Diego Padres
2. Los Angeles Dodgers*
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
Comment: My biggest surprise pick (standing-wise) is the Padres winning the NL West over the Dodgers. The Dodgers will hold the division for most of the season, but a combination of a late Padres run and a Dodgers late collapse results in the Padres winning the division. The Dodgers will still get a wild card. The Giants will be decent again, but like the Cubs may still be a year away.
AL EAST
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays*
3. Baltimore Orioles*
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Boston Red Sox
Comment: The Yankees win the division... again. The Blue Jays again claim the top wild-card seed. The Orioles leapfrog the Rays and claim the final wild-card spot. The Orioles have a young core that will only get better. The Red Sox lost Bogearts and well... they need to rebuild.
AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Guardians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Comment: The Guardians have a solid young core and aren't going anywhere. The Twins should compete and will challenge for a wild card spot, but it won't be enough. The White Sox will feel the loss of Jose Abreu.
AL WEST
1. Houston Astros
2. Texas Rangers*
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: I hate to say it, but the Mariners are missing the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong. I think the Rangers signing DeGrom and getting Bruce Bochy as manager were huge. I don't think the Mariners did enough this offseason, and it will come back to bite them. Of course, the Astros aren't going anywhere, unfortunately.
So, the 2023 playoffs! Perhaps a few surprise teams? No Mariners... let's hope if they miss the playoffs (like I'm predicting) that it doesn't start a new drought for the team.
NL WILD CARD
(6) Mets at (3) Cardinals: Cardinals win
(5) Phillies at (4) Dodgers: Phillies win
AL WILD CARD
(6) Orioles at (3) Guardians: Guardians win
(5) Rangers at (4) Blue Jays: Blue Jays win
NL DIVISIONAL ROUND
(5) Phillies at (1) Braves: Braves win
(3) Cardinals at (2) Padres: Padres win
AL DIVISIONAL ROUND
(4) Blue Jays at (1) Astros: Astros win
(3) Guardians at (2) Yankees: Guardians win
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Padres vs. Braves: Braves win
Guardians vs. Astros: Guardians win
WORLD SERIES
Guardians vs. Braves: Braves win in 7
Yep, a rematch of the 1995 World Series, 28 years later. The Braves win again. Now, who I think will lead certain categories for the M's:
Average: JP Crawford (resurgent season)
Home Runs: Julio Rodriguez
RBI: Ty France
Stolen Bases: Julio Rodriguez
Wins: Luis Castillo
Strikeouts: Robbie Ray
ERA: George Kirby
Saves: Paul Sewald
All-Stars: Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby
I'm going to do a further look at the M's, what I expect from each player, and perhaps go in depth as to why I think they'll miss the playoffs (barely). Look for that soon!
So this is Brian from late 2023, the MLB season is now in the playoffs and I wanted to point out the biggest things I got right and the biggest things I got wrong:
Biggest things I got right:
- Mariners missing the playoffs. I wish I wasn't right on this...! Sigh.
- The Texas Rangers finishing 2nd to the Astros and snagging a wild card, along with two other AL East teams.
- The Baltimore Orioles making the playoffs--although I did not see them winning the East!
- The Dodgers losing their first playoff series--again. Although, I had them losing the wild card instead of losing in the divisional round.
Biggest things I got wrong:
- Guardians winning their division and the AL Pennant--Whoops!
- Cardinals winning the NL Central--but I wasn't the only one to get this wrong
- The Padres winning the NL West over the Dodgers. Hey, they lost a lot of close games, if you switch those, you basically get what I predicted.
- The Yankees winning the AL East while the Rays finish 4th. Basically switch those two.
Friday, September 30, 2022
Twenty-One Years in the Making
The 2022 Mariners, barring the most miraculous finish by Baltimore and the most epic of collapses by them, will make the playoffs for the first time in twenty-one years. The playoff drought for this team will not see its 21st birthday if you count from the last playoff game in Mariner's history, which was October 22, 2001. Just one more win by the Mariners and one more loss from the Baltimore Orioles will make it so it is impossible for Baltimore (or any team behind them, for that matter) can supplant the Mariners from a Wild Card playoff spot.
I have waited twenty-one long and painful years for this. As a Mariner fan, I have endured ineptitude, horrible trades and free agent acquisitions and have always been disappointed by September at the latest. It's going to be weird. The Mariners in the playoffs seems so abnormal in today's world, like seeing someone still using an iPod shuffle or a Microsoft Zune. But the Mariners making the playoffs has to become a new fad or trend, and one that will hopefully stick around longer than the Zune did.
It's hard to express my emotions right now. To be honest, part of me is half-expecting to wake up and realize this was a dream and see the 2022 Mariners with a losing record. So it might take a while for it to sink in with me.
What would also help is having a home playoff game. Playoff baseball in Seattle is like no other. Unfortunately, there hasn't been enough of it in MLB history. But playoff baseball in Seattle is, for lack of a better term, electric. The Kingdome rocked in the 1990s with pennant fever. T-Mobile park has shown signs of what the players have dubbed "The electric factory." But imagine if the Mariners did damage and won a playoff series at home.
Unfortunately, with the way the playoffs are currently designed, the Mariners would have to get the top wild card spot in order to guarantee themselves home playoff games. Otherwise, they'd have to win their wild card series on the road, likely against Cleveland or Toronto. Neither is an easy task. So while the Mariners may end their playoff drought, they still might not get to host a playoff game, and that streak could continue.
But I'm sure many Mariners fans, myself included, would take this situation in a heartbeat. After twenty-one years, you'll just take any modicum of success your team can achieve. To have the Mariners in a playoff series, even if it's entirely on the road, is something I've dreamed about for twenty-one years. When I watch them play in the playoffs, it's going to feel so surreal, on the verge of feeling unreal, almost.
I'm so stoked these guys are on the verge of ending this drought, and I wish them the absolute best for the rest of the season and in the playoffs. Regardless of the finish (provided we clinch the playoffs), this 2022 season will always be looked back at fondly. The playoff drought now is longer than the one this team endured to start its existence. And you know what? It's about damn time we made the playoffs. Go Mariners.
Monday, August 1, 2022
Thoughts on Castillo Trade, M's Future
Just a few days ago, I warned the Mariners and Jerry Dipoto not to give up too much for a player like Juan Soto. Unfortunately, they gave up a lot, and not even for Juan Soto. They sent four prospects (3 of the top 5 in the Mariners' system) to the Cincinnati Reds for Luis Castillo, an All-Star pitcher. He's a borderline top 10 starter in the game and still should have plenty of productive years left. He is only signed through 2023, so the Mariners may only get a season and a half out of him. Was this an overpay? It will all depend on how things shake out.
I understand that you have to give up a lot to get star players. But man, losing 3 of your top 5 prospects does hurt. The winner of this trade will be determined by how much Castillo can help the Mariners toward a playoff birth and run and how well those prospects do with the Reds.
I get it. The Mariners are desperate for a playoff berth. I am desperate for that, too. But if the Mariners make the playoffs once or twice, each followed by early playoff exits, and another drought ensues, was it worth it? I'd say it hardly was. However, Castillo will solidify a very good rotation even further for at least the next year and a half, and as the saying goes, you can never have too much good pitching.
The good thing is that 99.9% of prospects are not a sure thing. We weren't even sure Julio Rodriguez was a sure thing going into this season. Jarred Kelenic was a highly rated prospect and has still not panned out, and he might never. At this point, I wish Jerry Dipoto had traded him earlier while his value was still high. That's what he did with our prospects he sent for Castillo. He sent them away while their value was still high.
Obviously, if you trade a prospect that becomes a perennial All-Star or Hall of Famer and don't get the value in return, it becomes an awful trade and one of the worst in franchise history. But that's the risk you take with trades in MLB. Every team in the majors has made a huge trade that they regret.
As Mariner fans, we can only hope Castillo leads us to the playoffs, and we go on a playoff run, and the prospects we sent away only have marginally successful careers at best. If we aren't able to end the playoff drought and the prospects have great careers with the Reds helping them get to the playoffs, that's going to be too much for us Mariner fans to handle. We've seen this happen too many times before.
I hope to look back on this trade and not feel remorse like I do so many other trades in Mariner history. I often wonder what Mariners' history would've been like if we had held on to the likes of Jason Varitek, Derek Lowe, David Ortiz, and Adam Jones.
Before I fail to mention, the first full game played after the announcement of this trade, Julio Rodriguez went down with a hand injury and went on the 10-day IL the day after. The need for hitting became even more apparent. But Jerry Dipoto decided to go with pitching. I'm not wholely against that idea because pitching often wins in the playoffs, but if the bats go quiet due to a lack of depth and injuries, that's going to really hurt the M's chances of even making the playoffs.
We will know in 2 months whether this trade is starting to be worth it or it's looking like another dud trade to add to the list in Mariners history. Let's hope for the former.
Friday, July 29, 2022
The Mariners (and Jerry Dipoto) must be cautious, mostly with regards to Soto
The trade deadline rapidly approaches for the 2022 MLB season, and as always happens, players' names circulate among the rumor mill. The Seattle Mariners, in contention after their 14-game winning streak, will likely be looking to add a piece or two. The biggest name on the market is one Juan Soto, an outfielder for the Washington Nationals. He's still only 23 and rejected a gigantic contract extension, meaning he wants out of Washington (D.C.). He's arguably one of the most valuable trade pieces ever on the market. And the Mariners are rumored to be one of 4 teams strongly interested in him. I say this to Mariners Team President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and the rest of the Mariners front office: Do not sell the farm for Soto. He is one player. What if something happens to him?
The Mariners must be cautious. We have built a strong core, one that is as strong as we have seen in the past twenty years. To sell a huge chunk of it for one player is risky at best and foolish at worst. What if a health condition is discovered in Juan Soto a year or two from now? With the news of Mike Trout, it makes you want to be cautious about what you give up for certain stars. Or what if he decides he doesn't like Seattle? That would completely derail this rebuild, one that has taken eight years so far.
Not to mention, the Mariners already have a Dominican young star in Julio Rodriguez. They also have a plethora of other outfielders, just waiting for a pair to be healthy and playing well simultaneously. Those outfielders include Jesse Winker, Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic, and Mitch Haniger. Surely 2 of those could pan out and be very capable players. Yes, trading for Soto would acquire someone we wouldn't even have to worry about. But is ownership really willing to pay both Julio and Soto contracts that would total close to a billion dollars?
The best players in Mariners history almost all come from the draft or they were signed as amateur free agents. Griffey, A-Rod, and Seager were all drafted. Felix and Julio were signed as amateur free agents. Ichiro was brought from Japan. The one exception being Randy Johnson, but he was not highly touted when the Mariners acquired him from Montreal. My point is, trades or even free-agent acquisitions hardly have been huge successes in this team's history, especially when acquiring big name stars.
If the Mariners could somehow get Soto for a handful of mid-range prospects, and maybe Kelenic or Lewis, I'd say go for it. But the Nationals apparently want a team's top 3 or 4 prospects. Jerry Dipoto and the M's simply cannot afford to blow this up for one player. Are all the top prospects the Mariners would trade for Soto going to live up to their billing? Maybe not. But it's an almost certainty that most of them will be big contributors in a few years.
I just hope Dipoto is cautious. I'd rather miss the playoffs barely again this year and go into next year stronger and hungrier than trade for Soto and have a quick playoff exit. I want to end the playoff drought just as much as any Mariners fan, but not at the cost of our future.
Thursday, June 16, 2022
Grading each Mariner so far in 2022
The 2022 Mariners season is quickly nearing its halfway point, and this season has been less than ideal. It seems the Mariners have taken a step back, although there have been a lot of things to not go there way. One is injuries. Mitch Haniger has missed time with two injuries, Kyle Lewis came back for about a week only to miss significant time with a concussion, and we have been without two relievers we were counting on, Casey Sadler and Ken Giles.
Although the season is not over nor is it a "lost cause", there's still a lot of reason for concern. However, there's also reason for optimism. I'm going to give each player that's seen significant time a letter grade, and assess their overall games based on their expectations coming into 2022. First off, Lewis, Haniger, and Murphy all get an "incomplete" due to being injured for a majority of the season so far.
Hitters
Cal Raleigh: C+
Cal got off to an extremely slow start offensively, causing him to be sent down. However, his bat woke up, and he's done a very good job of handling our pitching staff. A lot of Logan Gilbert's success has to be attributed to Cal.
Luis Torrens: D
He's been ok, his bat seems to very slowly be waking up. His defense does seem to have improved from last season. But as of mid-June he is still looking for his first home run of 2022.
Ty France: A+
Could we have asked anything more from Ty? His defense has been great, and his offense has been even better. He's been drawing comparisons to Edgar Martinez, and for good reason. His average has dropped while his strikeouts have ticked up in recent weeks, so he's a borderline A/A+, but he's definitely the one lock to be an All-Star on the roster.
Adam Frazier: D+
He was expected to provide a high avg/OBP bat at the top of the lineup, but he has not. His average has hung around the .230/.240 range, and we were expecting at least 50 points higher. He's been riddled with awful luck, hitting straight to defensive players. His defense has been adequate.
JP Crawford: A-
JP is one of the bright spots on this team, and he easily could be slumping after signing a contract extension at the start of the year, but he really hasn't. If anything, his defense has taken a hit, causing him to be near the top in errors by an AL shortstop. But he's still made some great defensive plays.
Eugenio Suarez: B
Suarez was almost an afterthought in the trade that netted him and Winker, but he has been definitely the better piece so far. He's leading the M's in home runs currently and likely will the rest of the year, barring injury. He's shown a propensity to strike out too much, especially in high-leverage situations. But his defense has been outstanding, hardly a drop-off (if at all) from Seager.
Jesse Winker: D
Winker, along with Frazier, was acquired due to his ability to hit for a high average. And also like Frazier, he has struggled. His average is even lower. Some worry about his lack of power numbers, but he never has hit too many, only hitting 24 last season. One good thing has been his eye, as he leads the team in walks. His defense leaves a lot to be desired, as there have been more than a few fly balls to left that a more athletic outfielder could have gotten to while Jesse did not.
Julio Rodriguez: A-
Julio got off to a slow start, which wasn't wholly unexpected, but that was partly due to the awful strike calls he was getting called against him. But he heated up in May, coinciding with his first Major League home run. He has relished hitting in the middle of the lineup. But the best parts of Julio's game has been his baserunning and defense. He currently leads the majors in stolen bases and has played great defense in center.
Jarred Kelenic: D-
It's a shame Kelenic wasn't able to produce, because come June the team has definitely needed him. Fortunately, Trammell has done somewhat decently in his place. But given that Jarred made his debut last year and had a chance to work on things this offseason, his slow start is concerning.
Abraham Toro: F
Just about every Mariners fan is done with Toro at this point, and I'll be shocked if something doesn't happen to him before the All-Star break (unless he miraculously catches fire). He's provided some late-inning pop, and yes, if it wasn't for him, we lose that game to the Red Sox where he tied it up with 2 outs. But so often we have asked him to come through and been let down. I think Scott's getting tired of Toro's inability to come through.
Dylan Moore: C+
Dylan has been about what we expected. We did not expect to see him start so much in the outfield, but injuries and Kelenic's struggles have necessitated it. He's been adequate. He did have a walk-off hit against the Red Sox. And his defense and base running has been above average.
Taylor Trammell: C
Taylor's done well in his short stint, but hasn't really quite broken through yet. He has played solid D. It's unfortunate that Servais feels the need to pinch-hit Moore or Toro for him every time he's scheduled to face a lefty. How's a young left-handed hitter supposed to get better if he is never allowed to face lefties?
Sam Haggerty: C-
Not much to say about Sam, and he's really just a body to have on the Major League roster while we wait for guys to heal up. He's been good defensively, but his bat leaves a lot to be desired.
Pitchers
Robbie Ray: C-
Given his expectations, we were expecting more from Robbie Ray. He's given the Mariners length, pitching the most innings this far. But he's also allowed a lot of home runs, 14, which is 3rd most in the AL. His last start where he went 7 scoreless is promising after he developed a 2-seam fastball and used that effectively.
Logan Gilbert: A
Logan has taken a big step forward in year 2. Imagine if Kelenic, who was called up last year at the same time as Gilbert, looked as good as Gilbert does now. Anyway, Logan has been mostly dominant, winning AL pitcher of the month for April, and for good reason. His ERA was under 1 for that month!
Marco Gonzales: B-
Marco's been fairly inconsistent, but when he's on, he's on. His maturity and poise have shown. If he can locate his change-up and get calls from the umpire, he's very hard to hit off of.
Chris Flexen: C+
If there was ever a guy who was 2-8 who was actually pitching well, it's Flexen. Flexen has gotten some awful run support, forcing him to leave games barely behind or tied, despite many quality starts.
Matt Brash: D+
Is it fair to count Brash? Eh, I'd say so. He started off fairly well, but then hitters started to figure him out while at the same time he was losing a bit of control. He also failed to reach 6 innings pitched in each of his 5 starts, something that cannot be said for any other pitcher to start a game this year.
George Kirby: B-
George sure had a nice debut, but unfortunately, it did take him a little while to get his first Major League win. He definitely looks better than Brash, and hopefully, it won't take him that long to get win #2.
Paul Sewald: C+
I've gone from trusting Paul each time out to waiting with baited breath each time he pitches. I think Servais shouldn't use him in high-leverage situations for a while, not until he gets his control back. Seawald has definitely cost us a couple games at least.
Penn Murfee: A
I remember first seeing Penn, first thinking he had a weird name, then thinking, "Well here's a guy that will probably be sent back to Tacoma pretty soon." Boy, was I wrong. He has been magnificent, although his most recent outing against the Twins was not pretty.
Diego Castillo: B-
It's certainly been a tale of two seasons for Castillo. He was looking so bad at one point that I was surprised he wasn't DFA'ed. But he righted his ship and is now the most dominant arm in the pen.
Andres Munoz: C
The velocity has been nice, but the control and the amount of hits off of Munoz leave a lot to be desired. He's still young, so I can't be too harsh, but he's certainly got potential to be a dominant arm in the pen.
Matt Festa: C
Like Castillo, Festa had his struggles early on, but he has quietly become one of the more reliable arms in the pen.
Erik Swanson: B+
When you have gone 2+ months into a season and you can't think of a time when a reliever has blown a game, you know he's doing at least somewhat well. Swanson has been a surprising bright spot in the pen. Shame we lost him for a bit to injury, but fortunately, he's back now.
Sergio Romo: C-
Romo has been wildly inconsistent, with at times looking like his old self and at other times looking like the old guy that no one wanted.
Drew Steckenrider/Anthony Misiewicz/Ryan Borucki/Roenis Elias/Anyone else: D
I didn't think it was fair to count each of these guys as individual grades, as none of them have been with the big league club all season. The rest of the bullpen here has been mostly disappointing.
So with all those grades, what is the team's GPA? Well I did the math, and the GPA is...
C+. Well, if the team has a losing record, why do they have an above average grade? Remember, this is based on expectations for each player, so players like Julio, Penn Murfee, and Erik Swanson have higher grades than if I were to grade their seasons not considering expectations. I think this is about right, and if I were to wholly grade everyone without taking expectations into consideration, I'd say their grades drop one spot on average (so a B to a B-, for example). That would mean the team GPA is a C, which makes sense. Were the Mariners expected to run away with the division? No. But some bad luck and injuries have really hurt them, because otherwise this team has a winning record and is in the hunt for a wild card spot.
I might grade these guys around the end of the season. Hopefully, we'll have a GPA a bit higher next time.
Wednesday, March 30, 2022
Resetting my Expectations for the Seattle Mariners
Boy, I've talked about the Mariners a lot on here, haven't I? Just do a search for "Mariners" on this blog, and you'll see what I'm talking about. I care a lot about them; they're one of my top two favorite sports teams. I've followed them passionately for almost 25 years, and boy has my loyalty been tested. The 2022 season is about to begin and there's something this team has that they haven't had too often the last 20 years: Expectations. This team is expected to improve, succeed, and finally end that now 21-year postseason drought. But I've learned from past experiences to not get my hopes up too high with the Mariners, because I always seem to be let down.
Honestly, I'm torn. Part of me wants to be super excited, get behind this team, and stay as optimistic as I can. However, the other part of me knows if I get too excited and optimistic that I will be let down again, and to be let down after being that optimistic is just heartbreaking.
One thing that makes me not want to be optimistic is the fact that the Mariners outperformed last season. They relied upon winning a lot of close games, and when they lost, they lost bad. They ended up with a -51 run differential, meaning they should have won closer to 76 games than the 90 they ended up with. I fully expect that run differential to improve, but that doesn't mean their win total will. Many times in sports, teams regress the year following a season they were "lucky". It happens in the NFL and it happens in Major League Baseball.
We will learn a lot from this season. We will learn if this team will continue to be on the rise or if they take a step back. We'll learn about Jarred Kelenic, and if he is going to make something of himself or not. We'll get to see Julio Rodriguez and see what he can do. If anything, I'm just excited to see new faces and see what this team can do with expectations.
I'll likely write another blog on the Mariners around the mid-way point of the season, giving my thoughts on the team. I hope to be writing about the amazing start the Mariners have, how they're leading the AL West, and start envisioning a playoff berth for the first time in 21 years. Should be fun!
Tuesday, March 22, 2022
2022 MLB Predictions
I'm not going to lie, there was a part of me that thought the 2022 MLB season might not happen. The lockout seemed to go on forever, but fortunately the two sides came together and reached an agreement.
I'm going to quickly predict the order of each division, knowing in all likelihood I will be wrong about most. But hey, it's still fun to do. But I'm not going to pick Wins and Losses like I've done in the past, because all that matters is the order and who makes the playoffs. Wild card teams will have an * by their name.
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Miami Marlins
Comment: No wild card teams here as this remains the weakest division in the NL.
NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals*
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Cincinnati Reds
Comment: The poor Reds are clearly selling farm and rebuilding.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants*
3. San Diego Padres*
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
Comment: It's an even year, so the Giants will have some success.
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. New York Yankees*
3. Toronto Blue Jays*
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
Comment: This is going to be a crazy division, any of the top 4 could win the division,
AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Cleveland Guardians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals
Comment: This division isn't ripe with talent but I could see the non-division winners making a run at the wild card, at the very least.
AL West
1. Houston Astros
2. Seattle Mariners*
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Texas Rangers
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: This should be a fun division, as any team could surprise. I feel hesitant putting the Athletics so low, because when I underestimate them, they surprise. They did trade away Chapman and Olson, however.
Yep, that's right, I have my Seattle Mariners ending their 21 year postseason drought! Thanks to the expanded playoffs, although I don't think they'd be the 6 seed in the AL. Maybe 5. Let's go through the playoffs:
NL Wild Card
(6) Padres vs. (3) Brewers: Padres win
(5) Cardinals vs. (4) Giants: Giants win
AL Wild Card
(6) Blue Jays vs. (3) White Sox: Blue Jays win
(5) Mariners vs. (4) Yankees: Mariners win
NL Divisional
(6) Padres vs. (2) Braves: Braves win
(4) Giants vs. (1) Dodgers: Dodgers win
AL Divisional
(6) Blue Jays vs. (2) Rays: Rays win
(5) Mariners vs. (1) Astros: Mariners win
League Championship Series
(2) Braves vs. (1) Dodgers: Dodgers win
(5) Mariners vs. (2) Rays: Rays win
World Series: Dodgers in 5
Well, my Mariners made the playoffs and made it to the league championship series! Where yet again, they were denied their first ever trip to the World Series. Oh well. Here's who I predict will lead certain categories for the Mariners:
Average: Adam Frazier
Home Runs: Mitch Haniger
RBI: Mitch Haniger
Stolen Bases: JP Crawford
Wins: Marco Gonzales
Strikeouts: Robbie Ray
ERA: Robbie Ray
Saves: Paul Sewald
All-Stars: Jessie Winker, Mitch Haniger, Robbie Ray
Sunday, April 4, 2021
My late MLB and Mariners prediction post
It's April 4, we're three games (plus) into the MLB regular season, and I did not do any post about the upcoming season. Eh, better late than never, right? Anyway, I'll still make some predictions for the MLB season. Similarly to how I do my NFL predictions, I'll talk about each division instead of each team. Afterwards, I'll talk about the Mariners and make some predictions. Here we go!
* = Wild Card
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Washington Nationals*
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets
The NL East has got some good teams and it was hard to decide what order to put them. I think the Braves have some of the best players in Albies, Acuna, and Freeman, plus a pretty good pitching staff. The Nationals are only a year removed from winning it all and still boast some great players, most notably Juan Soto. The Phillies are about an average team for me. The Marlins are slowly getting better from the rebuild. The Mets... well... are the Mets. They have Pete Alonso, but I don't think they have many other notable players.
NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
This might be the division I pay the least attention to. I had a tough time blindly trying go figure out the order. I just have a gut feeling the Brewers are about to have a magical season. The Cardinals just got Nolan Arenado, so they should be improved. The Cubs still have some decent players, but aren't on the upswing. The Reds aren't awful, but there's just always too much competition in the NL Central for them. The Pirates, I know, are rebuilding and have gotten rid of a lot of great players in recent years, most notably Andrew McCutcheon and Garritt Cole.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres*
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
The NL West remains a very tough division. The Dodgers are the most stacked team in all of baseball, and now boast a pitching staff that can compete with anyone's. The Padres are young and up and coming and will give the Dodgers fits. The Giants will not be an easy out for most teams as they have a few good, young players plus notable vets like Crawford, Belt, and Posey. The D-Backs will be decent, but not great. The Rockies only real good player is Nolan Arenado, who may want out of town, despite signing a contract extension.
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays*
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees remain a top team and are the favorites to win the division. The Blue Jays signed George Springer and have a lot of really good young players like Guerrero and Biggio. The Red Sox are usually at least somewhat competitive. The Rays and Orioles won't be awful, but won't be that good, either.
AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
The White Sox are an up and coming team and I think they take a big jump this season. The Twinkies remain a solid team, but not solid enough to make the playoffs. The Indians still have some good pieces, but have also lost a few, most notably Trevor Bauer. The Royals remain below average, and the Tigers are still rebuilding.
AL West
1. Houston Astros
2. Oakland Athletics*
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Texas Rangers
I hate to say it, but the Astros are probably winning the division again. They lost Springer, but still have a lot of good players. Let's just hope fans boo and ridicule them. The A's are always pesky and competitive. As for my Mariners, I think they surprise people and remain competitive. But they fall short of the playoffs for the 20th straight season. The Angels aren't awful, but the Rangers kind of are.
I haven't said yet, but I believe they're going back to the playoff format they had in 2019 (not using the 2020 expanded playoffs), which would be a one-game playoff for the wild card spot. Anyway, I'll sim the playoffs below real quick.
NL Wild Card: Padres over Nationals
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays over Athletics
NL Divisional Round
Dodgers over Padres in 5 games
Braves over Brewers in 4 games
AL Divisional Round
Yankees over Blue Jays in 4 games
White Sox over Astros in 5 games
NL Championship Series
Dodgers over Braves in 6 games
AL Championship Series
Yankees over White Sox in 5 games
World Series
Dodgers over Yankees in 7 games
The Dodgers repeat as champions, and they beat the Yankees at their own game of spending a lot to assemble a super team.
Now, onto the Mariners. I think they'll win somewhere between 75-85 games, with some ups and downs along the way. They could maybe even break the .500 mark for the first time since 2018.
I'm just going to predict who I think will lead the team in each category. Some may surprise you.
Batting average: Ty France
Home Runs: Kyle Lewis
RBI's: Kyle Seager
Stolen Bases: Dylan Moore
Hits: Ty France
Wins: Marco Gonzales
ERA: Marco Gonzales
Saves: Rafael Montero
K's: Yusei Kikuchi
I'm going to tune into Mariners games all summer long to check on the progress of some players. I'm looking forward to the debuts of some of the youngsters, such as Kelenic and Gilbert, hopefully. I really do think this team could remain competitive and perhaps in the race going into middle to late September. Could make for an interesting summer. Let's hope it is!
* = Wild Card
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Washington Nationals*
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets
The NL East has got some good teams and it was hard to decide what order to put them. I think the Braves have some of the best players in Albies, Acuna, and Freeman, plus a pretty good pitching staff. The Nationals are only a year removed from winning it all and still boast some great players, most notably Juan Soto. The Phillies are about an average team for me. The Marlins are slowly getting better from the rebuild. The Mets... well... are the Mets. They have Pete Alonso, but I don't think they have many other notable players.
NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
This might be the division I pay the least attention to. I had a tough time blindly trying go figure out the order. I just have a gut feeling the Brewers are about to have a magical season. The Cardinals just got Nolan Arenado, so they should be improved. The Cubs still have some decent players, but aren't on the upswing. The Reds aren't awful, but there's just always too much competition in the NL Central for them. The Pirates, I know, are rebuilding and have gotten rid of a lot of great players in recent years, most notably Andrew McCutcheon and Garritt Cole.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres*
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
The NL West remains a very tough division. The Dodgers are the most stacked team in all of baseball, and now boast a pitching staff that can compete with anyone's. The Padres are young and up and coming and will give the Dodgers fits. The Giants will not be an easy out for most teams as they have a few good, young players plus notable vets like Crawford, Belt, and Posey. The D-Backs will be decent, but not great. The Rockies only real good player is Nolan Arenado, who may want out of town, despite signing a contract extension.
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays*
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees remain a top team and are the favorites to win the division. The Blue Jays signed George Springer and have a lot of really good young players like Guerrero and Biggio. The Red Sox are usually at least somewhat competitive. The Rays and Orioles won't be awful, but won't be that good, either.
AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
The White Sox are an up and coming team and I think they take a big jump this season. The Twinkies remain a solid team, but not solid enough to make the playoffs. The Indians still have some good pieces, but have also lost a few, most notably Trevor Bauer. The Royals remain below average, and the Tigers are still rebuilding.
AL West
1. Houston Astros
2. Oakland Athletics*
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Texas Rangers
I hate to say it, but the Astros are probably winning the division again. They lost Springer, but still have a lot of good players. Let's just hope fans boo and ridicule them. The A's are always pesky and competitive. As for my Mariners, I think they surprise people and remain competitive. But they fall short of the playoffs for the 20th straight season. The Angels aren't awful, but the Rangers kind of are.
I haven't said yet, but I believe they're going back to the playoff format they had in 2019 (not using the 2020 expanded playoffs), which would be a one-game playoff for the wild card spot. Anyway, I'll sim the playoffs below real quick.
NL Wild Card: Padres over Nationals
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays over Athletics
NL Divisional Round
Dodgers over Padres in 5 games
Braves over Brewers in 4 games
AL Divisional Round
Yankees over Blue Jays in 4 games
White Sox over Astros in 5 games
NL Championship Series
Dodgers over Braves in 6 games
AL Championship Series
Yankees over White Sox in 5 games
World Series
Dodgers over Yankees in 7 games
The Dodgers repeat as champions, and they beat the Yankees at their own game of spending a lot to assemble a super team.
Now, onto the Mariners. I think they'll win somewhere between 75-85 games, with some ups and downs along the way. They could maybe even break the .500 mark for the first time since 2018.
I'm just going to predict who I think will lead the team in each category. Some may surprise you.
Batting average: Ty France
Home Runs: Kyle Lewis
RBI's: Kyle Seager
Stolen Bases: Dylan Moore
Hits: Ty France
Wins: Marco Gonzales
ERA: Marco Gonzales
Saves: Rafael Montero
K's: Yusei Kikuchi
I'm going to tune into Mariners games all summer long to check on the progress of some players. I'm looking forward to the debuts of some of the youngsters, such as Kelenic and Gilbert, hopefully. I really do think this team could remain competitive and perhaps in the race going into middle to late September. Could make for an interesting summer. Let's hope it is!
Thursday, February 20, 2020
Rob Manfred and Roger Goodell are ruining their sports
My two favorite sports are baseball and football. Basketball used to be up there, but ever since Seattle lost the Sonics, I've not watched it quite as much. But I have been an avid fan of baseball and football my entire life, and I've got to say, I have not liked what the two commissioners of the two biggest sports leagues I follow have done.
First, let's start with Rob Manfred. First, he got rid of the four pitch intentional walk. Never again will we see a wild pitch intentional walk, or an intentional ball being hit for a base hit. That didn't need to change. There's rumors he wants to change the baseball playoffs even more. He's already added a second wild card team, which was extremely unnecessary. It just reduces the importance of the regular season. Baseball now has a total of 10 playoff teams, and I know Manfred wants to add more. It has enough. And this is coming from a Mariners fan that hasn't experienced the playoffs in 19 years. I don't want the Mariners to make the playoffs at 83-79 as the sixth best team in the A.L. I also don't want a see a team barely above .500 make it to the League Championship Series, or do I daresay it, the World Series.
But the worst thing Manfred has done (or should I say, hasn't done), is not punishing the Astros players for the sign-stealing scandal. The Houston Astros were caught red-handed stealing signs and relaying them to the hitters through audio signals. The coaches and front office and organization were punished, although some feel not punished harshly enough. Frankly, he should have stripped the Astros of their 2017 World Series title, because they obtained it unfairly. He referred to the title as "taking a piece of metal away from them", which goes to show how little he knows about competitive sports. And then there's the players, whom he did not punish. Not one. None of them spoke up when this was going on. They all allowed this to happen, and they took advantage of other teams. I know why Manfred didn't punish them. It's because they are the reasons fans go to games, watch on TV, and buy merchandise. He suspends players like Altuve, Correa, Alex Bregman, and George Springer, and the profits plummet. Now, he's threatening to suspend pitchers for targeting Astros players, so in the end those pitchers who retaliate would get punished, but not the cheaters. Ok.
Then there's NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. The fans already hate him. I don't hate him, but my disdain for him grows with every unnecessary change he makes. The one change that hasn't officially happened yet, but would make me jump on the Goodell Hate Train, is adding another playoff team. There's strong consideration that a 7th playoff team will be added for each league. One, the logistics for that sound way too complicated. Two, it over-saturates the playoffs. The seventh team would have a record of 9-7 or even 8-8 on occasion. A lot of teams at 9-7 or 8-8 have no business competing for a Super Bowl. I don't want to see the 8-8 New York Jets have a chance at the Super Bowl, or the 9-7 Cowboys as a Wild Card have a shot. The teams that win their division, with two exceptions per league, should be the ones competing for a Super Bowl. Three is too many.
I hate that these commissioners are making these changes. It's all because of money and making more of it. I've already stopped being a fan of one sports league because my favorite team of theirs stopped existing. If the postseasons of these leagues become too saturated, I will not support them by watching them. I don't even watch the MLB Wild Card games, unless the AL one is an intriguing matchup. But if too many changes happen to try to make more money, I won't look back as I stop watching these sports leagues altogether.
First, let's start with Rob Manfred. First, he got rid of the four pitch intentional walk. Never again will we see a wild pitch intentional walk, or an intentional ball being hit for a base hit. That didn't need to change. There's rumors he wants to change the baseball playoffs even more. He's already added a second wild card team, which was extremely unnecessary. It just reduces the importance of the regular season. Baseball now has a total of 10 playoff teams, and I know Manfred wants to add more. It has enough. And this is coming from a Mariners fan that hasn't experienced the playoffs in 19 years. I don't want the Mariners to make the playoffs at 83-79 as the sixth best team in the A.L. I also don't want a see a team barely above .500 make it to the League Championship Series, or do I daresay it, the World Series.
But the worst thing Manfred has done (or should I say, hasn't done), is not punishing the Astros players for the sign-stealing scandal. The Houston Astros were caught red-handed stealing signs and relaying them to the hitters through audio signals. The coaches and front office and organization were punished, although some feel not punished harshly enough. Frankly, he should have stripped the Astros of their 2017 World Series title, because they obtained it unfairly. He referred to the title as "taking a piece of metal away from them", which goes to show how little he knows about competitive sports. And then there's the players, whom he did not punish. Not one. None of them spoke up when this was going on. They all allowed this to happen, and they took advantage of other teams. I know why Manfred didn't punish them. It's because they are the reasons fans go to games, watch on TV, and buy merchandise. He suspends players like Altuve, Correa, Alex Bregman, and George Springer, and the profits plummet. Now, he's threatening to suspend pitchers for targeting Astros players, so in the end those pitchers who retaliate would get punished, but not the cheaters. Ok.
Then there's NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. The fans already hate him. I don't hate him, but my disdain for him grows with every unnecessary change he makes. The one change that hasn't officially happened yet, but would make me jump on the Goodell Hate Train, is adding another playoff team. There's strong consideration that a 7th playoff team will be added for each league. One, the logistics for that sound way too complicated. Two, it over-saturates the playoffs. The seventh team would have a record of 9-7 or even 8-8 on occasion. A lot of teams at 9-7 or 8-8 have no business competing for a Super Bowl. I don't want to see the 8-8 New York Jets have a chance at the Super Bowl, or the 9-7 Cowboys as a Wild Card have a shot. The teams that win their division, with two exceptions per league, should be the ones competing for a Super Bowl. Three is too many.
I hate that these commissioners are making these changes. It's all because of money and making more of it. I've already stopped being a fan of one sports league because my favorite team of theirs stopped existing. If the postseasons of these leagues become too saturated, I will not support them by watching them. I don't even watch the MLB Wild Card games, unless the AL one is an intriguing matchup. But if too many changes happen to try to make more money, I won't look back as I stop watching these sports leagues altogether.
Wednesday, February 5, 2020
Seattle Mariners in 2020 - Youth Movement Underway
The Seattle Mariners are in the process of a rebuild. There's no getting around it. That's what it is. They are not expected to contend this year, and even asking for a playoff run next year may be too early. But the youth movement is here and it is also the future. Gone are Cano, Cruz, and now Felix Hernandez. Seager and Gordon are close to gone. Haniger could join them.
The 2020 season is for the young guys. We get to see Evan White at first base. Barring injury or significant struggles (knock on wood), we get to see full seasons from Shed Long, J.P. Crawford, Kyle Lewis, and Jake Fraley. The 2020 Mariners won't make the playoffs (barring a miracle), but they will be interesting and worth a watch. I'm certainly going to want to say that I watched the start of these young men's careers. Hopefully they'll be leading our team to the playoffs in a few years.
I'm going to go over what I expect from each notable player, including the veterans. Team success isn't quite as important as seeing progress in certain individuals; namely, the youngsters mentioned above. At the end I'll assign them a tier number. These tiers are in reference to their careers as a Mariner from 2020 onwards, so if they already had their success, they might have a surprisingly low tier. Those tiers are:
- Tier 1: I predict them to be a future star with us. I'd be surprised if they never made an All-Star team for us. Might not be quite as iconic as Felix or Ichiro, but will become one of the faces of the franchise.
- Tier 2: They'll be a serviceable starter, maybe borderline All-Star. We've had guys like Jose Lopez, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, and Daniel Vogelbach make the All-Star team just once and anyone in this tier will be like them. Although Vogelbach only had a good half-season.
- Tier 3: They'll have a good season for us or two, but that's it. Nothing all-star worthy.
- Tier 4: They really don't have much to give us and/or they'll be gone by the end of the season.
Catcher
Tom Murphy - With Murphy's emergence as the starting catcher, Omar Narvaez became expendable. Murph will get the bulk of starts behind the dish in 2020. He's not our future at catcher, but he's our starting catcher until Cal Raleigh is ready. Interestingly, Murph is the only pure catcher on the 40 man roster, as Nola is listed as an infielder. I expect Murph to have a similar 2020 as he did 2019, and hopefully he does not drop off (at least not significantly). I'll give him a Tier 3 because I don't expect Murph to be our catcher in two years.
Austin Nola - I'm excited to see him catch more in 2020. He may be used as a super utility player in 2020, going from catcher to first to third and maybe outfield. Nola burst onto the scene in 2019, but he faded down the stretch. Hopefully he can have a more consistent 2020 season. If he rakes, Servais will find a spot for him in the lineup. If he continues to do fairly well, which I hope, I'll give him a Tier 2. I think he has potential to be our All-Star representative this season. He's got to get starts somewhere, though.
First Base/DH
Evan White - I'm more excited to see this kid play defense than I am to see him hit. His defense is constantly raved about, so I bet we'll see a sparkling play from him or two. He doesn't need to absolutely light it up with his bat in 2020, but get at least some timely hits and show some pop. I see him as a Tier 2. I don't see a ton of star power in Evan. I could see him being the next Eric Hosmer.
Daniel Vogelbach - He just completely fell apart last year. After the All-Star break, he couldn't buy a hit, and our lone "All Star" ended up hitting .208 for the year. He needs to have a more consistent 2020 for sure. I do not see him as a regular in our lineup around the end of the season. If he struggles, he'll get cut. If he has success, he could get traded because he's turning 28 later this year and could be dealt for a prospect to a team needed a left-handed bat. But I am very concerned for Vogey; his fall-off last year is concerning, so I while I'd like to give him a Tier 3, I am leaning more towards Tier 4. If he doesn't get off to a decent start, we won't have the patience for him, and we could see Nola take a few of his starts.
Second Base
Shed Long - Apparently Shed will be given the bulk of the opportunities at second base over veteran Dee Gordon. Shed showed some flashes last year with a surprising amount of pop in his 5'8" frame. He needs to get better defensively, however. He struggled mightily early on last year with his glove. I'll give Shed a Tier 2. Like Evan White, has some good qualities but lacks star power.
Dee Gordon - Dee is in a weird spot. He's sort of going to be used as a utility man, spelling Shed and JP and maybe even playing outfield. He'll also, I'm sure, be used as a pinch-runner. But more than likely, Jerry Dipoto will find a suitor for Dee who will want to use his glove, legs, and contact ability. I don't expect Dee to make it past the trade deadline, therefore I won't guess at his stats. I expect Dee gone soon, so he gets a Tier 4.
Shorstop
J.P. Crawford - J.P. would have to really struggle to lose his job. He did start off last season great, but finished kind of slowly (but so did most of the youngsters). I'm sure we'll see quite a few more sparkling defensive plays this year from J.P. as he makes a name for himself in baseball. I just hope he's able to hit for a fairly high average and stay at the top of the lineup. I am torn between tiers 1 and 2 for J.P., but because of his defense I will give him a Tier 1. If he turns out anything like Francisco Lindor, I'll be a very happy man.
Third Base
Kyle Seager - Seags is in a weird spot. We can't really trade him because he has a poison pill in his contract; basically the option in his contract gets converted to another year automatically if he gets traded, and he is making way more than what he's worth at the moment. He's the longest tenured Mariner now, and it'll be interesting to see how much the Mariners front office wants him to play. They'll want him to play to hopefully increase his trade value. But with how much he has put into this organization, I could see him staying for a while to also help mentor the younger players on both hitting and defense. I'll give Seags a Tier 3.
Outfield
Mitch Haniger - Unfortunately Mitch survived another set-back and will miss spring training and probably the start of the season. You might think he's a bit injury-prone. It's unfortunate; his career got off to such a great start with us. Kyle Seager suffered a set-back at the start of last year, so hopefully Mitch has a similar hot streak to Seager's in him. He could be trade bait if that happens. Mitch literally could be any of the tiers, depending on how well he bounces back and if we trade him. I'll go with Tier 3, because we have a lot of outfield talent in our system, and he is injury-prone.
Mallex Smith - I'd prefer him as a 4th outfielder and speed off the bench, but what can you do. He'll probably share time in center with Jake Fraley, Haniger, and maybe even Dee. I just wish he hit a bit more consistently. He could be a potential trade piece if a team needs to replace an injured center-fielder or they need speed on the bench. I'm going with Tier 4 because I expect Mallex to either be benched or traded.
Kyle Lewis - Hard to get off to a better start than Kyle did at the end of last season. It was awesome to watch. Can he carry that over to 2020? Remember, Dustin Ackley got off to a really good start too, and we all remember how that turned out. He's got potential to be a 5 tool player. I am going to give him a Tier 1 because I feel optimistic when it comes to Kyle's chances. He's been in our system a while and he finally gets his first full season to prove himself. And I could see him like an Adam Jones type player.
Jake Fraley - I was not too impressed with Fraley last year. In 40 AB's last year he hit .150 and did not get a home run. He's surprisingly good defensively, but I worry about his bat. He could surprise me this year and go on a tear, but I just don't feel like that will happen. He didn't look wholely comfortable at the plate last year. I know, that could change. I'm going to give him a Tier 3. I could see us trading him in a year or two, especially if Kelenic or Rodriguez come up and go on a tear.
Every other position player: I don't see anyone else having a lengthy or impactful career with the Mariners. Dylan Moore, Tim Lopes, Patrick Wisdom, and Braden Bishop will battle it out for the remaining spots. Haniger will probably start the season on the DL, so that opens a spot for someone, probably Bishop. Usually, teams carry 12 or 13 position players, so there's not a ton of room for other players. Wisdom is the newbie so I'll be most interested to see how he does.
Starting Pitchers
Marco Gonzalez - Marco is our presumed opening day starter since he was last year. He just got a nice new contract as well, which I was happy to see. Marco is a great guy to lead this pitching staff until we get some of the youngsters up, and then hopefully be able to pass on some knowledge to them. I'll give Marco a Tier 2, only because I don't see Marco becoming a true bona fide #1 starter. He could make one All-Star team as our lone representative.
Yusei Kikuchi - Yusei certainly had some moments in 2019, most notably in Cleveland and New York. Otherwise, he mostly struggled. He will need to make significant improvements in 2020, otherwise he won't be with us long. He'll be given plenty of chances because A) We don't have too many starting pitching options and B) We're not expected to make the playoffs. Unless Yusei makes a big jump this year, I give him Tier 3.
Justus Sheffield - Justus didn't really impress me last year, but it was his first significant big league action. He, along with Kikuchi, will need to make an improvement in 2020. I give Justus a better chance due to his age. I really hope he can become at least a serviceable starter, because when we acquired him in the James Paxton trade, he was supposed to be a legit frontline starter. I'll give him a Tier 2, but I feel like I'm being optimistic with that.
Kendall Graveman - I really only know him by name, but I see he struggled a bit with the A's and then underwent Tommy John surgery. He could either surprise us or cost us multiple games. Even if Graveman struggles, Servais will probably be forced to stick with him due to lack of options. I'm giving Graveman a Tier 4 based on recent history.
Justin Dunn - Dunn showed flashes last year in very limited time. I honestly see him as more of a reliever than a starter, but maybe that's just me. I like Dunn, he seems like he'll work hard and compete his butt off, but how well will he really do? Time will tell. I will give him a Tier 3, hoping to be proven wrong.
Bullpen: Much like with the bench, I'm not going to go over the bullpen individually. I think our bullpen is going to see a huge amount of turnover the next few seasons until we find guys that stick. I like Magill and Tuivailala. We also brought in Carl Edwards Jr. and Yoshihisa Hirano, so it will be fun to see how those guys do. There's also Erik Swanson, Brandon Brennan, and Dan Altavilla, who all pitched for us last year, but I don't really like any of them that much.
It's odd how excited I am for this upcoming season. I know at times it won't be pretty, but to see young players develop is fun to watch. This season will remind me of the 2011 Seahawks, who had a lot of bright, young stars but not a lot of experience. They were still really fun to watch, however.
I'll predict a record of 69-93. It's not great, but it's not awful, either. I think there will be just enough talent to avoid 100 or even 95 losses.
The 2020 season is for the young guys. We get to see Evan White at first base. Barring injury or significant struggles (knock on wood), we get to see full seasons from Shed Long, J.P. Crawford, Kyle Lewis, and Jake Fraley. The 2020 Mariners won't make the playoffs (barring a miracle), but they will be interesting and worth a watch. I'm certainly going to want to say that I watched the start of these young men's careers. Hopefully they'll be leading our team to the playoffs in a few years.
I'm going to go over what I expect from each notable player, including the veterans. Team success isn't quite as important as seeing progress in certain individuals; namely, the youngsters mentioned above. At the end I'll assign them a tier number. These tiers are in reference to their careers as a Mariner from 2020 onwards, so if they already had their success, they might have a surprisingly low tier. Those tiers are:
- Tier 1: I predict them to be a future star with us. I'd be surprised if they never made an All-Star team for us. Might not be quite as iconic as Felix or Ichiro, but will become one of the faces of the franchise.
- Tier 2: They'll be a serviceable starter, maybe borderline All-Star. We've had guys like Jose Lopez, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, and Daniel Vogelbach make the All-Star team just once and anyone in this tier will be like them. Although Vogelbach only had a good half-season.
- Tier 3: They'll have a good season for us or two, but that's it. Nothing all-star worthy.
- Tier 4: They really don't have much to give us and/or they'll be gone by the end of the season.
Catcher
Tom Murphy - With Murphy's emergence as the starting catcher, Omar Narvaez became expendable. Murph will get the bulk of starts behind the dish in 2020. He's not our future at catcher, but he's our starting catcher until Cal Raleigh is ready. Interestingly, Murph is the only pure catcher on the 40 man roster, as Nola is listed as an infielder. I expect Murph to have a similar 2020 as he did 2019, and hopefully he does not drop off (at least not significantly). I'll give him a Tier 3 because I don't expect Murph to be our catcher in two years.
Austin Nola - I'm excited to see him catch more in 2020. He may be used as a super utility player in 2020, going from catcher to first to third and maybe outfield. Nola burst onto the scene in 2019, but he faded down the stretch. Hopefully he can have a more consistent 2020 season. If he rakes, Servais will find a spot for him in the lineup. If he continues to do fairly well, which I hope, I'll give him a Tier 2. I think he has potential to be our All-Star representative this season. He's got to get starts somewhere, though.
First Base/DH
Evan White - I'm more excited to see this kid play defense than I am to see him hit. His defense is constantly raved about, so I bet we'll see a sparkling play from him or two. He doesn't need to absolutely light it up with his bat in 2020, but get at least some timely hits and show some pop. I see him as a Tier 2. I don't see a ton of star power in Evan. I could see him being the next Eric Hosmer.
Daniel Vogelbach - He just completely fell apart last year. After the All-Star break, he couldn't buy a hit, and our lone "All Star" ended up hitting .208 for the year. He needs to have a more consistent 2020 for sure. I do not see him as a regular in our lineup around the end of the season. If he struggles, he'll get cut. If he has success, he could get traded because he's turning 28 later this year and could be dealt for a prospect to a team needed a left-handed bat. But I am very concerned for Vogey; his fall-off last year is concerning, so I while I'd like to give him a Tier 3, I am leaning more towards Tier 4. If he doesn't get off to a decent start, we won't have the patience for him, and we could see Nola take a few of his starts.
Second Base
Shed Long - Apparently Shed will be given the bulk of the opportunities at second base over veteran Dee Gordon. Shed showed some flashes last year with a surprising amount of pop in his 5'8" frame. He needs to get better defensively, however. He struggled mightily early on last year with his glove. I'll give Shed a Tier 2. Like Evan White, has some good qualities but lacks star power.
Dee Gordon - Dee is in a weird spot. He's sort of going to be used as a utility man, spelling Shed and JP and maybe even playing outfield. He'll also, I'm sure, be used as a pinch-runner. But more than likely, Jerry Dipoto will find a suitor for Dee who will want to use his glove, legs, and contact ability. I don't expect Dee to make it past the trade deadline, therefore I won't guess at his stats. I expect Dee gone soon, so he gets a Tier 4.
Shorstop
J.P. Crawford - J.P. would have to really struggle to lose his job. He did start off last season great, but finished kind of slowly (but so did most of the youngsters). I'm sure we'll see quite a few more sparkling defensive plays this year from J.P. as he makes a name for himself in baseball. I just hope he's able to hit for a fairly high average and stay at the top of the lineup. I am torn between tiers 1 and 2 for J.P., but because of his defense I will give him a Tier 1. If he turns out anything like Francisco Lindor, I'll be a very happy man.
Third Base
Kyle Seager - Seags is in a weird spot. We can't really trade him because he has a poison pill in his contract; basically the option in his contract gets converted to another year automatically if he gets traded, and he is making way more than what he's worth at the moment. He's the longest tenured Mariner now, and it'll be interesting to see how much the Mariners front office wants him to play. They'll want him to play to hopefully increase his trade value. But with how much he has put into this organization, I could see him staying for a while to also help mentor the younger players on both hitting and defense. I'll give Seags a Tier 3.
Outfield
Mitch Haniger - Unfortunately Mitch survived another set-back and will miss spring training and probably the start of the season. You might think he's a bit injury-prone. It's unfortunate; his career got off to such a great start with us. Kyle Seager suffered a set-back at the start of last year, so hopefully Mitch has a similar hot streak to Seager's in him. He could be trade bait if that happens. Mitch literally could be any of the tiers, depending on how well he bounces back and if we trade him. I'll go with Tier 3, because we have a lot of outfield talent in our system, and he is injury-prone.
Mallex Smith - I'd prefer him as a 4th outfielder and speed off the bench, but what can you do. He'll probably share time in center with Jake Fraley, Haniger, and maybe even Dee. I just wish he hit a bit more consistently. He could be a potential trade piece if a team needs to replace an injured center-fielder or they need speed on the bench. I'm going with Tier 4 because I expect Mallex to either be benched or traded.
Kyle Lewis - Hard to get off to a better start than Kyle did at the end of last season. It was awesome to watch. Can he carry that over to 2020? Remember, Dustin Ackley got off to a really good start too, and we all remember how that turned out. He's got potential to be a 5 tool player. I am going to give him a Tier 1 because I feel optimistic when it comes to Kyle's chances. He's been in our system a while and he finally gets his first full season to prove himself. And I could see him like an Adam Jones type player.
Jake Fraley - I was not too impressed with Fraley last year. In 40 AB's last year he hit .150 and did not get a home run. He's surprisingly good defensively, but I worry about his bat. He could surprise me this year and go on a tear, but I just don't feel like that will happen. He didn't look wholely comfortable at the plate last year. I know, that could change. I'm going to give him a Tier 3. I could see us trading him in a year or two, especially if Kelenic or Rodriguez come up and go on a tear.
Every other position player: I don't see anyone else having a lengthy or impactful career with the Mariners. Dylan Moore, Tim Lopes, Patrick Wisdom, and Braden Bishop will battle it out for the remaining spots. Haniger will probably start the season on the DL, so that opens a spot for someone, probably Bishop. Usually, teams carry 12 or 13 position players, so there's not a ton of room for other players. Wisdom is the newbie so I'll be most interested to see how he does.
Starting Pitchers
Marco Gonzalez - Marco is our presumed opening day starter since he was last year. He just got a nice new contract as well, which I was happy to see. Marco is a great guy to lead this pitching staff until we get some of the youngsters up, and then hopefully be able to pass on some knowledge to them. I'll give Marco a Tier 2, only because I don't see Marco becoming a true bona fide #1 starter. He could make one All-Star team as our lone representative.
Yusei Kikuchi - Yusei certainly had some moments in 2019, most notably in Cleveland and New York. Otherwise, he mostly struggled. He will need to make significant improvements in 2020, otherwise he won't be with us long. He'll be given plenty of chances because A) We don't have too many starting pitching options and B) We're not expected to make the playoffs. Unless Yusei makes a big jump this year, I give him Tier 3.
Justus Sheffield - Justus didn't really impress me last year, but it was his first significant big league action. He, along with Kikuchi, will need to make an improvement in 2020. I give Justus a better chance due to his age. I really hope he can become at least a serviceable starter, because when we acquired him in the James Paxton trade, he was supposed to be a legit frontline starter. I'll give him a Tier 2, but I feel like I'm being optimistic with that.
Kendall Graveman - I really only know him by name, but I see he struggled a bit with the A's and then underwent Tommy John surgery. He could either surprise us or cost us multiple games. Even if Graveman struggles, Servais will probably be forced to stick with him due to lack of options. I'm giving Graveman a Tier 4 based on recent history.
Justin Dunn - Dunn showed flashes last year in very limited time. I honestly see him as more of a reliever than a starter, but maybe that's just me. I like Dunn, he seems like he'll work hard and compete his butt off, but how well will he really do? Time will tell. I will give him a Tier 3, hoping to be proven wrong.
Bullpen: Much like with the bench, I'm not going to go over the bullpen individually. I think our bullpen is going to see a huge amount of turnover the next few seasons until we find guys that stick. I like Magill and Tuivailala. We also brought in Carl Edwards Jr. and Yoshihisa Hirano, so it will be fun to see how those guys do. There's also Erik Swanson, Brandon Brennan, and Dan Altavilla, who all pitched for us last year, but I don't really like any of them that much.
It's odd how excited I am for this upcoming season. I know at times it won't be pretty, but to see young players develop is fun to watch. This season will remind me of the 2011 Seahawks, who had a lot of bright, young stars but not a lot of experience. They were still really fun to watch, however.
I'll predict a record of 69-93. It's not great, but it's not awful, either. I think there will be just enough talent to avoid 100 or even 95 losses.
Monday, January 27, 2020
2020 MLB Predictions
Is it baseball season already? Well no, not really. It's coming up soon, though! Yes, it's early to be making predictions, but I just couldn't wait any longer. I'm going to rank the teams in each division based on how I think they'll finish (Sorry, no win-loss records this year). And then, postseason predictions. I have done surprisingly well in postseason predictions in the past, although last year's prediction of Dodgers/Yankees fell flat. I'm more interested in the American League so I will go more in depth there.
* = Wild Card
NL East
1. Braves
2. Nationals*
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Mets
Comment: The Braves have a young nucleus that just gets even better. The defending champs Nats do well, but can only muster a wild card. The Phillies have an up and down season. The Marlins surprise a lot of people (again), and the Mets stink it up thanks to Beltran getting axed before he could even manage a game.
NL Central
1. Brewers
2. Cubs
3. Cardinals
4. Reds
5. Pirates
Comment: The Brew Crew do well again and claim the division. David Ross does fairly well in his first year, but not enough for a playoff spot. The Cards and Reds do all right, not awful. The Pirates struggle after trading Marte.
NL West
1. Dodgers
2. Diamondbacks*
3. Padres
4. Giants
5. Rockies
Comment: I think this is the best all-around division. The Dodgers repeat as division champs--again. The D-Backs fight them all the way to the end for the division crown but fall just short. The Padres are in it most of the year but fade away late. The Giants are rebuilding, and with a new manager, tread water for this year. The Rockies aren't awful, but they can't pass any of their division rivals.
AL East
1. Yankees
2. Rays*
3. Blue Jays
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles
Comment: The Yankees surge again, this time hoping for a healthier regular season and more success in the playoffs. The Rays do surprisingly well and claim a wild card spot. The Blue Jays ride their youth movement, but are still a year away from really contending. The Sox struggle after losing their manager. The Orioles are.... the Orioles.
AL Central
1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Indians
4. Tigers
5. Royals
Comment: Surprised, are you? The White Sox are my dark horse and surprise team of 2020. The Twins remain competitive but are unable to claim a playoff spot. The Indians are decent but not great. The Tigers make progress, and the Royals are just there.
AL West
1. Angels
2. Astros*
3. Athletics
4. Rangers
5. Mariners
Comment: Joe Maddon goes into LA and leads them to a division title in his first year. The Astros have a bit of a let-down season following their scandal, but still manage to claim a wild card spot. They're just too talented. The A's are in it to the end but fall short. The Rangers chug along and aren't bad. The Mariners surprise some teams and make progress, but the rest of the division is too tough.
Some surprises there, I'm sure. How will the playoffs unfold?
Wild Cards:
NL: Nationals vs. Diamondbacks - Diamondbacks win
AL: Rays vs. Astros - Astros win
Divisional Round
NL: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks - Dodgers win
Braves vs. Brewers - Braves win
AL: Yankees vs. Astros - Yankees win
White Sox vs. Angels - White Sox win
Championship Series
NL: Dodgers vs. Braves - Braves win
AL: Yankees vs. White Sox - Yankees win
World Series
Braves vs. Yankees: Yankees win in 5
Yet again I pick the Yankees to win the World Series. Will they come through this time? Time will tell. I'll be content with any winner except for the Astros. I'd prefer them to not make the playoffs, but they just have too much talent. Coming up soon I'll talk about the Mariners, what I expect from each player going into 2020.
* = Wild Card
NL East
1. Braves
2. Nationals*
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Mets
Comment: The Braves have a young nucleus that just gets even better. The defending champs Nats do well, but can only muster a wild card. The Phillies have an up and down season. The Marlins surprise a lot of people (again), and the Mets stink it up thanks to Beltran getting axed before he could even manage a game.
NL Central
1. Brewers
2. Cubs
3. Cardinals
4. Reds
5. Pirates
Comment: The Brew Crew do well again and claim the division. David Ross does fairly well in his first year, but not enough for a playoff spot. The Cards and Reds do all right, not awful. The Pirates struggle after trading Marte.
NL West
1. Dodgers
2. Diamondbacks*
3. Padres
4. Giants
5. Rockies
Comment: I think this is the best all-around division. The Dodgers repeat as division champs--again. The D-Backs fight them all the way to the end for the division crown but fall just short. The Padres are in it most of the year but fade away late. The Giants are rebuilding, and with a new manager, tread water for this year. The Rockies aren't awful, but they can't pass any of their division rivals.
AL East
1. Yankees
2. Rays*
3. Blue Jays
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles
Comment: The Yankees surge again, this time hoping for a healthier regular season and more success in the playoffs. The Rays do surprisingly well and claim a wild card spot. The Blue Jays ride their youth movement, but are still a year away from really contending. The Sox struggle after losing their manager. The Orioles are.... the Orioles.
AL Central
1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Indians
4. Tigers
5. Royals
Comment: Surprised, are you? The White Sox are my dark horse and surprise team of 2020. The Twins remain competitive but are unable to claim a playoff spot. The Indians are decent but not great. The Tigers make progress, and the Royals are just there.
AL West
1. Angels
2. Astros*
3. Athletics
4. Rangers
5. Mariners
Comment: Joe Maddon goes into LA and leads them to a division title in his first year. The Astros have a bit of a let-down season following their scandal, but still manage to claim a wild card spot. They're just too talented. The A's are in it to the end but fall short. The Rangers chug along and aren't bad. The Mariners surprise some teams and make progress, but the rest of the division is too tough.
Some surprises there, I'm sure. How will the playoffs unfold?
Wild Cards:
NL: Nationals vs. Diamondbacks - Diamondbacks win
AL: Rays vs. Astros - Astros win
Divisional Round
NL: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks - Dodgers win
Braves vs. Brewers - Braves win
AL: Yankees vs. Astros - Yankees win
White Sox vs. Angels - White Sox win
Championship Series
NL: Dodgers vs. Braves - Braves win
AL: Yankees vs. White Sox - Yankees win
World Series
Braves vs. Yankees: Yankees win in 5
Yet again I pick the Yankees to win the World Series. Will they come through this time? Time will tell. I'll be content with any winner except for the Astros. I'd prefer them to not make the playoffs, but they just have too much talent. Coming up soon I'll talk about the Mariners, what I expect from each player going into 2020.
Wednesday, June 12, 2019
The Seattle Mariners are Cursed
The Seattle Mariners are cursed. They
find ways to lose games, and they find ways to miss the playoffs. They did something to anger the baseball
gods, although I do not know what that would have been. But I have believed for a long time now that
the Mariners are cursed. They have the
worst luck of any team I have seen both in games and season by season. The Red Sox used to have a curse, the
"Curse of the Bambino". The
Cubs used to have a curse, the "Curse of the Billy Goat". I believe the Mariners were inflicted with a similar
curse.
The year would've been 2001. The baseball gods are not happy with the Seattle Mariners. They helped assemble us some of the best talent of their generation. Four sure fire Hall of Famers played on the Mariners in the late 90's. And we let three of them go. We were supposed to win a World Series with these players, but couldn't even get there. Then we let them go. Randy was traded. Griffey was traded. We let Alex test free agency and he signed with the rival Rangers. Edgar stayed, but was older than all of them and closest to the end of his career. The baseball gods did not like this. We then spurned them by signing Bret Boone and Ichiro. We won 116 games, which I'm sure made the gods angry. How was this team, without A-Rod, Griffey, and Randy, winning 116 games? They promptly inflicted us with fatigue and prevented us from reaching the World Series. Not only that, but they inflicted the Mariners with bad luck in everything they do: Trades, free agency, and in games.
When you ask a casual baseball fan about the Seattle Mariners, they might say that the Mariners don't make the playoffs much. It's not for lack of trying. And many teams have been very close. Five times since 2002 the Mariners have been the best team in the American League NOT to make it to the playoffs. That's more times than they've made the playoffs in THEIR ENTIRE HISTORY. That's right: The Mariners have more often been a few games away from making the playoffs in the past 17 years than they have made the playoffs in all of their existence. What kind of team has this kind of luck? A cursed team.
Speaking of playoffs, the Mariners have made the playoffs in just four of their 43 seasons. When there were four playoff teams, any team had a 27% chance of making the playoffs. Now that there are five playoff teams with the addition of another wild card, the playoff chances rise to 33%. But the Mariners have made it for just 9% of their existence. And most notably and recently, the Mariners have the longest playoff drought in all of North American professional sports at 18 years. That is like spinning an item, and for 18 consecutive tries never getting it to face North. Unreal.
It's amazing to me how often Mariner's opponents get a lucky break and how often the Mariners get a bad one. Watch pretty much any one of their games. A ball that lands foul for the Mariners is a fair ball for their opponents. It also seems on replay reviews that calls go against the Mariners for more often than their opponents. I wish I had a nickel for every time I heard Mariners play-by-play man Dave Sims say, "Tough break for the Mariners."
What shall we name this curse? The easiest answer would be to find a player who left after 2001. The most notable I see is Jay Buhner. We could call it the "Curse of the Bone". It's kind of got an eerie and dark vibe to it. Granted, Jay Buhner only played 19 games in 2001, but he was still a clubhouse presence and leader on that team. My other choice would be the "Curse of the Big Three." The big three being Randy, Griffey, and A-Rod. They were the big three that left, and aside from 2001 we haven't made the playoffs without them... at all. Not before them, not after. But I'll stick with the "Curse of the Bone".
Jerry Dipoto has decided to have this team go through a rebuild process. He acquired quite a few prospects and he'll probably acquire even more as the trade deadline draws near. The expected run at the playoffs will happen in 2022. All I'm going to say is this: If a lot of these prospects fail (as so many of ours have in recent years), and we fail to make the playoffs during that run, there will be no doubt whatsoever in my mind that this team is full on cursed. And there shouldn't be any doubt in your mind, either.
The year would've been 2001. The baseball gods are not happy with the Seattle Mariners. They helped assemble us some of the best talent of their generation. Four sure fire Hall of Famers played on the Mariners in the late 90's. And we let three of them go. We were supposed to win a World Series with these players, but couldn't even get there. Then we let them go. Randy was traded. Griffey was traded. We let Alex test free agency and he signed with the rival Rangers. Edgar stayed, but was older than all of them and closest to the end of his career. The baseball gods did not like this. We then spurned them by signing Bret Boone and Ichiro. We won 116 games, which I'm sure made the gods angry. How was this team, without A-Rod, Griffey, and Randy, winning 116 games? They promptly inflicted us with fatigue and prevented us from reaching the World Series. Not only that, but they inflicted the Mariners with bad luck in everything they do: Trades, free agency, and in games.
When you ask a casual baseball fan about the Seattle Mariners, they might say that the Mariners don't make the playoffs much. It's not for lack of trying. And many teams have been very close. Five times since 2002 the Mariners have been the best team in the American League NOT to make it to the playoffs. That's more times than they've made the playoffs in THEIR ENTIRE HISTORY. That's right: The Mariners have more often been a few games away from making the playoffs in the past 17 years than they have made the playoffs in all of their existence. What kind of team has this kind of luck? A cursed team.
Speaking of playoffs, the Mariners have made the playoffs in just four of their 43 seasons. When there were four playoff teams, any team had a 27% chance of making the playoffs. Now that there are five playoff teams with the addition of another wild card, the playoff chances rise to 33%. But the Mariners have made it for just 9% of their existence. And most notably and recently, the Mariners have the longest playoff drought in all of North American professional sports at 18 years. That is like spinning an item, and for 18 consecutive tries never getting it to face North. Unreal.
It's amazing to me how often Mariner's opponents get a lucky break and how often the Mariners get a bad one. Watch pretty much any one of their games. A ball that lands foul for the Mariners is a fair ball for their opponents. It also seems on replay reviews that calls go against the Mariners for more often than their opponents. I wish I had a nickel for every time I heard Mariners play-by-play man Dave Sims say, "Tough break for the Mariners."
What shall we name this curse? The easiest answer would be to find a player who left after 2001. The most notable I see is Jay Buhner. We could call it the "Curse of the Bone". It's kind of got an eerie and dark vibe to it. Granted, Jay Buhner only played 19 games in 2001, but he was still a clubhouse presence and leader on that team. My other choice would be the "Curse of the Big Three." The big three being Randy, Griffey, and A-Rod. They were the big three that left, and aside from 2001 we haven't made the playoffs without them... at all. Not before them, not after. But I'll stick with the "Curse of the Bone".
Jerry Dipoto has decided to have this team go through a rebuild process. He acquired quite a few prospects and he'll probably acquire even more as the trade deadline draws near. The expected run at the playoffs will happen in 2022. All I'm going to say is this: If a lot of these prospects fail (as so many of ours have in recent years), and we fail to make the playoffs during that run, there will be no doubt whatsoever in my mind that this team is full on cursed. And there shouldn't be any doubt in your mind, either.
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
I Believe the Mariners are Doing the Right Thing (Plus a Condensed Version of my 2019 MLB Predictions)
The Mariners head into the 2019 MLB season having gone through a lot of changes. Significant players gone are James Paxton, Mike Zunino, Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, and Ben Gamel. And those are just the players who were traded. In exchange the Mariners received a mix of prospects and a couple veterans. And to be totally and completely honest, I think general manager Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners organization as a whole are doing the right thing. Even if the Mariners were going to win with the core of players above, they weren't going to go very far. They were decent, but not great. We need to strive for great to finally break this long playoff drought.
As Mariners fans, we've almost become numb to losing and disappointment. It's not expected, but it's never a surprise, either. Just like the rain we so often get in the Puget Sound area, it's never welcomed but always a reason for gloominess. So this 2019 season, the Mariners are not expected to do a ton of winning. And I am content with that. This is a transition year. Mostly, I'm excited to see how new faces do, and see how the youngsters do if and when they're called up from the minors.
So I thought it would be fun to make a team that may be the core of this roster some day. It might not look exactly like this, but it will be fun to see how close I come to getting it right.
C: Nazvaez/Trade Acquisition/Raleigh
1B: White/Healy
2B: Shed Long
SS: JP Crawford
3B: Seager/Trade Acquisition
OF: Some combination of Haniger, Smith, Kelenic, Rodriguez, Bishop, and Lewis.
SP: Sheffield, Kikuchi, Gonzalez, Carlson, Gilbert, FA/Trade
RP: Dunn, Festa, Mills, Rumbelow, Tuivailala, FA/Trade
The could be the roster come 2021 or so. We'll see. But having acquired a group of talented youngsters, I'm finally excited for the future of the Seattle Mariners.
So onto my predictions for 2019. As I'm not too excited for this baseball season as a whole, I'm just predicting the playoff teams and division winners. As for the Mariners, I'll predict their record to be 73-89. Just barely missing 90 losses.
AL Division Winners: Astros, Twins (you heard it here first), Yankees
Wild Cards: Red Sox and Indians
NL Division Winners: Dodgers, Cardinals, and Phillies
Wild Cards: Cubs and Nationals
Wild Card Winners: Red Sox and Cubs
AL Divisional Matchups:
Yankees vs. Red Sox (What a matchup!): Yankees win... The-e-e-e-e Yankees win!
Twins vs. Astros: Astros win
NL Divisional Matchups:
Dodgers vs. Cubs: Dodgers win
Phillies vs. Cardinals: Cardinals win
ALCS: Yankees beat Astros
NLCS: Dodgers beat Cardinals
World Series: Yankees in six games
So, there you have it, the Yankees winning the World Series. Just like old times. Good for James Paxton if that does indeed happen. As for the Mariners, they will play spoiler and knock the Athletics out of the Wild Card race in the final series of the season. :)
As Mariners fans, we've almost become numb to losing and disappointment. It's not expected, but it's never a surprise, either. Just like the rain we so often get in the Puget Sound area, it's never welcomed but always a reason for gloominess. So this 2019 season, the Mariners are not expected to do a ton of winning. And I am content with that. This is a transition year. Mostly, I'm excited to see how new faces do, and see how the youngsters do if and when they're called up from the minors.
So I thought it would be fun to make a team that may be the core of this roster some day. It might not look exactly like this, but it will be fun to see how close I come to getting it right.
C: Nazvaez/Trade Acquisition/Raleigh
1B: White/Healy
2B: Shed Long
SS: JP Crawford
3B: Seager/Trade Acquisition
OF: Some combination of Haniger, Smith, Kelenic, Rodriguez, Bishop, and Lewis.
SP: Sheffield, Kikuchi, Gonzalez, Carlson, Gilbert, FA/Trade
RP: Dunn, Festa, Mills, Rumbelow, Tuivailala, FA/Trade
The could be the roster come 2021 or so. We'll see. But having acquired a group of talented youngsters, I'm finally excited for the future of the Seattle Mariners.
So onto my predictions for 2019. As I'm not too excited for this baseball season as a whole, I'm just predicting the playoff teams and division winners. As for the Mariners, I'll predict their record to be 73-89. Just barely missing 90 losses.
AL Division Winners: Astros, Twins (you heard it here first), Yankees
Wild Cards: Red Sox and Indians
NL Division Winners: Dodgers, Cardinals, and Phillies
Wild Cards: Cubs and Nationals
Wild Card Winners: Red Sox and Cubs
AL Divisional Matchups:
Yankees vs. Red Sox (What a matchup!): Yankees win... The-e-e-e-e Yankees win!
Twins vs. Astros: Astros win
NL Divisional Matchups:
Dodgers vs. Cubs: Dodgers win
Phillies vs. Cardinals: Cardinals win
ALCS: Yankees beat Astros
NLCS: Dodgers beat Cardinals
World Series: Yankees in six games
So, there you have it, the Yankees winning the World Series. Just like old times. Good for James Paxton if that does indeed happen. As for the Mariners, they will play spoiler and knock the Athletics out of the Wild Card race in the final series of the season. :)
Friday, February 23, 2018
2018 MLB and Mariners Predictions!
The 2018 MLB season is fast approaching and Spring Training is underway. I sometimes wait until right before the MLB (or Mariners) opener to post predictions, but this time I thought I'd get a jump start on it and make my predictions now. I'm going to predict how each division will go (plus playoffs), and will also predict award winners and go further into detail on how the Seattle Mariners season will go. Let's just say there will be a few surprises. I'm going to start with the NL East and move west so that the Mariners and the AL West are last.
* = Wild Card
NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Miami Marlins
Comment: The Nats remain the favorite boasting the best overall roster in the division. The Mets could make a run but their pitching would have to hold up health-wise, something they haven't really proven to do. The Phillies should be improved from 2017 as they're a young team on the rise. The Braves are still a ways a way, and the Marlins are in complete rebuild mode and would surprise no one if they finished with the worst record in MLB.
NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs*
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Cincinnati Reds
Comment: Every so often, the Cardinals surprise everyone and have a great season. That's what makes them a popular team to root for. I think that will happen this year. The Cubs will meanwhile limp into the playoffs as the wild card. The Brewers will be improved with Cain and Yelich, but it won't be enough to get a playoff spot. The Pirates traded Andrew McCutcheon and may be heading for a rebuild. The Reds still are a few pieces away from contending.
NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks*
3. San Francisco Giants
4 .Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Comment: The Dodgers boast the best roster in the NL, if not all of MLB. The D-Backs will do their best to prove they're not a one-year wonder. The Giants will be improved, but not the same Giants they used to be. The Rockies will compete but will be needing pitching help (as usual). The Padres will be the Padres.
AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. New York Yankees
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Comment: The Red Sox will be knocking the cover off the ball, boasting the best team batting average. The Blue Jays will compete for a wild card for most of the year but fall short. The Yankees will have a disappointing season in Aaron Boone's first year as manager, as their expectations become too much. The Orioles will compete but play in too good of a division. The Rays will be perhaps the best last placed team in baseball.
AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Comment: The Indians remain the favorites in not a particularly strong division anymore. The Twins will want to prove last year was not a fluke. The White Sox should hang around but be missing a few pieces to really go on a run. The Royals are losing pieces left and right (Cain, Hosmer) and may be headed for a rebuild. The Tigers proved they're headed for a small rebuild by trading Justin Verlander last season.
AL WEST
1. Houston Astros
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim*
3. Seattle Mariners*
4. Texas Rangers
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: The Astros are built for the long haul, and it would be quite the surprise if they didn't compete for the division crown again. The Angels, after acquiring Shohei Ohtani, will be improved and grab a hold of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Mariners surprise most everyone, and just when people aren't expecting them to do much they go on a September run and claim the second wild card over the Twins and Blue Jays. The Rangers have a slightly down season. The A's continue the churning of their roster but will compete.
So onto the playoffs. The Wild Card games first.
NL WILD CARD: Cubs at Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks win
The D-Backs win a game they are the underdogs at home in, and relish their first playoff victory in quite some time.
AL WILD CARD: Mariners at Angels: Angels win
In a heated division rival matchup, the Mariners don't muster much offense despite a decent performance from James Paxton. So the Mariners make the playoffs, but only as a wild card and will still hold the distinction of not HOSTING a playoff game in over 17 years.
Now the divisional round. Who will have the edge?
NL Divisional Round
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers: Dodgers win
Cardinals vs. Nationals: Nationals win
AL Divisional Round
Angels vs. Astros: Astros win
Indians vs. Red Sox: Indians win
Comment: The Dodgers take care of their division rival as do the Astros. The Nats take care of the Cardinals in a 5 game series. The Indians/Red Sox series features Terry Francona taking on his former team, and it proves to make a difference as the Indians "upset" the Sox.
NL Championship Series:
Nationals vs. Dodgers: Nationals Win
AL Championship Series:
Indians vs. Astros: Astros Win
Comment: The NL hasn't had a team win the pennant that had won it recently since the Giants, and haven't had a repeat NL Champ since the 08-09 Phillies. The Dodgers therefore blow it. Also, with the Nationals making the World Series, the Mariners become the only current franchise to have never won a league pennant. The Indians/Astros series is a classic, goes to 7 games, and the Astros win Game 7 in walk off fashion thanks to a George Springer double.
World Series: Nationals vs. Astros: Nationals in 7
In a matchup of two teams that have changed names/leagues in the past 20 years (Nationals used to be the Expos, the Astros used to be in the NL), the Nationals come out on top, thanks to a diving catch by Bryce Harper which saves multiple runs from scoring in game 7. The Nats win their first World Series thanks to World Series MVP Bryce Harper, who hits four homers in the series.
Now, time for some awards:
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
NL MVP: Bryce Harper, Nationals
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Red Sox
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strausberg, Nationals
AL Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani, Red Sox
NL Rookie of the Year: Tyler O'Neill, Cardinals (Ouch)
AL Manager of the Year: Scott Servais, Mariners
NL Manager of the Year: Dave Martinez, Nationals
Comment: I usually miss on most or all of these, but it's fun nonetheless. Mike Trout is always a safe pick for MVP. His phenom counterpart in the NL, Bryce Harper, is a safe pick for MVP as well. Chris Sale is another safe pick (I know, I know), and on the Nats, Strausberg, not Scherzer, will be their best pitcher. Shohei Ohtani has a great rookie campaign and wins ROY. Tyler O'Neill who last year at this time was in the Mariners farm system, gets called up and becomes a rookie sensation and wins NLROY. Scott Servais wins Manager of the Year for guiding the Mariners to their first playoffs in 17 years. Dave Martinez wins the NL award for guiding the Nats to their first World Series championship in club history.
So how will the Mariners get there? Hard to say. You can often point at bad luck for being a reason for the Mariners not making the playoffs in a lot of recent seasons, so I'll say this season luck will be on their side. They will hang around for most of the season, never winning too many or losing too many in a row. September though, they go on a run and win a lot of close games, with Edwin Diaz at this point being lights out. I just think that whenever we expect them to do well they disappoint, so this season most fans aren't expecting much, so I'll say they surprise. Finally, some Mariners awards and stat leaders:
MVP: Robinson Cano
Cy Young: James Paxton
Unsung hero: Dee Gordon
Average: Cano
Homers: Nelson Cruz
Stolen Bases: Gordon
Hits: Cano
Strikeouts: Paxton
Wins: Felix Hernandez
Saves: Edwin Diaz
* = Wild Card
NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Miami Marlins
Comment: The Nats remain the favorite boasting the best overall roster in the division. The Mets could make a run but their pitching would have to hold up health-wise, something they haven't really proven to do. The Phillies should be improved from 2017 as they're a young team on the rise. The Braves are still a ways a way, and the Marlins are in complete rebuild mode and would surprise no one if they finished with the worst record in MLB.
NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs*
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Cincinnati Reds
Comment: Every so often, the Cardinals surprise everyone and have a great season. That's what makes them a popular team to root for. I think that will happen this year. The Cubs will meanwhile limp into the playoffs as the wild card. The Brewers will be improved with Cain and Yelich, but it won't be enough to get a playoff spot. The Pirates traded Andrew McCutcheon and may be heading for a rebuild. The Reds still are a few pieces away from contending.
NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks*
3. San Francisco Giants
4 .Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Comment: The Dodgers boast the best roster in the NL, if not all of MLB. The D-Backs will do their best to prove they're not a one-year wonder. The Giants will be improved, but not the same Giants they used to be. The Rockies will compete but will be needing pitching help (as usual). The Padres will be the Padres.
AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. New York Yankees
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Comment: The Red Sox will be knocking the cover off the ball, boasting the best team batting average. The Blue Jays will compete for a wild card for most of the year but fall short. The Yankees will have a disappointing season in Aaron Boone's first year as manager, as their expectations become too much. The Orioles will compete but play in too good of a division. The Rays will be perhaps the best last placed team in baseball.
AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Comment: The Indians remain the favorites in not a particularly strong division anymore. The Twins will want to prove last year was not a fluke. The White Sox should hang around but be missing a few pieces to really go on a run. The Royals are losing pieces left and right (Cain, Hosmer) and may be headed for a rebuild. The Tigers proved they're headed for a small rebuild by trading Justin Verlander last season.
AL WEST
1. Houston Astros
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim*
3. Seattle Mariners*
4. Texas Rangers
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: The Astros are built for the long haul, and it would be quite the surprise if they didn't compete for the division crown again. The Angels, after acquiring Shohei Ohtani, will be improved and grab a hold of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Mariners surprise most everyone, and just when people aren't expecting them to do much they go on a September run and claim the second wild card over the Twins and Blue Jays. The Rangers have a slightly down season. The A's continue the churning of their roster but will compete.
So onto the playoffs. The Wild Card games first.
NL WILD CARD: Cubs at Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks win
The D-Backs win a game they are the underdogs at home in, and relish their first playoff victory in quite some time.
AL WILD CARD: Mariners at Angels: Angels win
In a heated division rival matchup, the Mariners don't muster much offense despite a decent performance from James Paxton. So the Mariners make the playoffs, but only as a wild card and will still hold the distinction of not HOSTING a playoff game in over 17 years.
Now the divisional round. Who will have the edge?
NL Divisional Round
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers: Dodgers win
Cardinals vs. Nationals: Nationals win
AL Divisional Round
Angels vs. Astros: Astros win
Indians vs. Red Sox: Indians win
Comment: The Dodgers take care of their division rival as do the Astros. The Nats take care of the Cardinals in a 5 game series. The Indians/Red Sox series features Terry Francona taking on his former team, and it proves to make a difference as the Indians "upset" the Sox.
NL Championship Series:
Nationals vs. Dodgers: Nationals Win
AL Championship Series:
Indians vs. Astros: Astros Win
Comment: The NL hasn't had a team win the pennant that had won it recently since the Giants, and haven't had a repeat NL Champ since the 08-09 Phillies. The Dodgers therefore blow it. Also, with the Nationals making the World Series, the Mariners become the only current franchise to have never won a league pennant. The Indians/Astros series is a classic, goes to 7 games, and the Astros win Game 7 in walk off fashion thanks to a George Springer double.
World Series: Nationals vs. Astros: Nationals in 7
In a matchup of two teams that have changed names/leagues in the past 20 years (Nationals used to be the Expos, the Astros used to be in the NL), the Nationals come out on top, thanks to a diving catch by Bryce Harper which saves multiple runs from scoring in game 7. The Nats win their first World Series thanks to World Series MVP Bryce Harper, who hits four homers in the series.
Now, time for some awards:
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
NL MVP: Bryce Harper, Nationals
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Red Sox
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strausberg, Nationals
AL Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani, Red Sox
NL Rookie of the Year: Tyler O'Neill, Cardinals (Ouch)
AL Manager of the Year: Scott Servais, Mariners
NL Manager of the Year: Dave Martinez, Nationals
Comment: I usually miss on most or all of these, but it's fun nonetheless. Mike Trout is always a safe pick for MVP. His phenom counterpart in the NL, Bryce Harper, is a safe pick for MVP as well. Chris Sale is another safe pick (I know, I know), and on the Nats, Strausberg, not Scherzer, will be their best pitcher. Shohei Ohtani has a great rookie campaign and wins ROY. Tyler O'Neill who last year at this time was in the Mariners farm system, gets called up and becomes a rookie sensation and wins NLROY. Scott Servais wins Manager of the Year for guiding the Mariners to their first playoffs in 17 years. Dave Martinez wins the NL award for guiding the Nats to their first World Series championship in club history.
So how will the Mariners get there? Hard to say. You can often point at bad luck for being a reason for the Mariners not making the playoffs in a lot of recent seasons, so I'll say this season luck will be on their side. They will hang around for most of the season, never winning too many or losing too many in a row. September though, they go on a run and win a lot of close games, with Edwin Diaz at this point being lights out. I just think that whenever we expect them to do well they disappoint, so this season most fans aren't expecting much, so I'll say they surprise. Finally, some Mariners awards and stat leaders:
MVP: Robinson Cano
Cy Young: James Paxton
Unsung hero: Dee Gordon
Average: Cano
Homers: Nelson Cruz
Stolen Bases: Gordon
Hits: Cano
Strikeouts: Paxton
Wins: Felix Hernandez
Saves: Edwin Diaz
Sunday, February 11, 2018
The 2018 Mariners Don't Inspire Much Optimism
Spring training for the 2018 MLB season is just around the corner, and I gotta say, I can't remember a time feeling less optimistic about the Mariners season. The Mariners didn't make any particularly notable moves in the offseason and they aren't coming off a winning or even positive season. They ended the 2017 season on a sour note, falling out of the playoff race alarmingly fast. With the Buffalo Bills in the NFL having made the playoffs, the Mariners now own the longest playoff drought in North American professional sports. I hate to say it, but I think that drought will continue because these Mariners just aren't good enough and play in too tough of a division.
The Mariners had a relatively quiet offseason. They acquired Dee Gordon from the Marlins and Ryon Healy from the Athletics. Their pitching staff didn't get a huge upgrade, just depth in Juan Nicalsio. These moves to me to scream the typical Band-Aid type job the Mariners usually get, which never results in anything great. They just sign or trade for who they can, constantly hoping the new guys they acquire will be able to lift a team to the playoffs. It hasn't worked before, so I have very little hope or reason to believe it can happen this year.
But for me, the biggest reason to not be optimistic about this season is the strength of the division the Mariners play in, the AL West. The Houston Astros are the reigning World Series champs and will no doubt be a great team again. The Los Angeles Angels made the biggest move of the offseason and acquired Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani. The Mariners were in the running but lost out to their division rival, something I know will haunt us for years to come. The Angels expect to be improved and since they just missed the playoffs themselves last year, they'll be in the running again more than likely. The Texas Rangers still boast a ton of talent and could win a bunch of games. And the A's always have the ability to surprise and win games when no one expects them to. If I had to pick right now where I expect the Mariners to finish, I would say fourth, not because I think they'll lose a lot of games, but because their division is just that tough.
But for some reason I think the Mariners could fly under the radar. Felix will be desperate to prove his career is not over. Paxton will want to prove he can be a front of the line ace and pitch an entire season. Iwakuma still wants to pitch and should be healthy. The bullpen should be better, and Edwin Diaz should have better control. And that's just the pitching. The lineup could be one of the better ones in the American League. There's speed (Gordon, Gamel), power (Cano, Cruz, Seager), and contact hitting (Cano, Segura). The dominoes have to fall just right for this team. They certainly did not last year. But if the rotation can stay healthy, and the hitters can have productive seasons, the Mariners have a shot. But it's a slim shot, and no Mariner fan in their right mind should hold their breath over this team. Give them a month or two to prove themselves, because I think we will learn by May what kind of team the Mariners will be in 2018. I'm tempering my excitement, because this time the Mariners have to earn my excitement for the team.
The Mariners had a relatively quiet offseason. They acquired Dee Gordon from the Marlins and Ryon Healy from the Athletics. Their pitching staff didn't get a huge upgrade, just depth in Juan Nicalsio. These moves to me to scream the typical Band-Aid type job the Mariners usually get, which never results in anything great. They just sign or trade for who they can, constantly hoping the new guys they acquire will be able to lift a team to the playoffs. It hasn't worked before, so I have very little hope or reason to believe it can happen this year.
But for me, the biggest reason to not be optimistic about this season is the strength of the division the Mariners play in, the AL West. The Houston Astros are the reigning World Series champs and will no doubt be a great team again. The Los Angeles Angels made the biggest move of the offseason and acquired Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani. The Mariners were in the running but lost out to their division rival, something I know will haunt us for years to come. The Angels expect to be improved and since they just missed the playoffs themselves last year, they'll be in the running again more than likely. The Texas Rangers still boast a ton of talent and could win a bunch of games. And the A's always have the ability to surprise and win games when no one expects them to. If I had to pick right now where I expect the Mariners to finish, I would say fourth, not because I think they'll lose a lot of games, but because their division is just that tough.
But for some reason I think the Mariners could fly under the radar. Felix will be desperate to prove his career is not over. Paxton will want to prove he can be a front of the line ace and pitch an entire season. Iwakuma still wants to pitch and should be healthy. The bullpen should be better, and Edwin Diaz should have better control. And that's just the pitching. The lineup could be one of the better ones in the American League. There's speed (Gordon, Gamel), power (Cano, Cruz, Seager), and contact hitting (Cano, Segura). The dominoes have to fall just right for this team. They certainly did not last year. But if the rotation can stay healthy, and the hitters can have productive seasons, the Mariners have a shot. But it's a slim shot, and no Mariner fan in their right mind should hold their breath over this team. Give them a month or two to prove themselves, because I think we will learn by May what kind of team the Mariners will be in 2018. I'm tempering my excitement, because this time the Mariners have to earn my excitement for the team.
Sunday, April 2, 2017
My Almost Too Late 2017 MLB and Mariners Predictions
Well the baseball season is underway, but not the Mariners regular season, so
technically I'm not too late for this.
Like every year, I will predict an order of finish for each division in
baseball, some end of season awards, and Mariners leaders in each
category.
NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
2. New York Mets
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Miami Marlins
5. Philadelphia Phillies
Summary: The Nats are too loaded to not at least get 2nd, and if anyone in the Mets rotation struggles or gets hurt (like last year), it'll be hard for them to win the division. The Braves are a young team getting better and the Marlins aren't doing much. The Phillies still aren't making progress.
NL CENTRAL
1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Milwaukee Brewers
Summary: The Cubbies will get a playoff spot, no doubt. The Cards are almost always in it. The Buccos will compete but there's too much competition. It's a toss-up for last between the Brew Crew and the Reds.
NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Summary: I normally pick the Giants to win the division, but they're due for a down year, and if MadBum gets hurt they are in big trouble. The Dodgers are too talented to not compete for a playoff spot, and the Diamondbacks are a team on the rise. The Rockies will be a decent team and the Padres will probably finish in last.
AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. New York Yankees
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Summary: The BoSox loaded up for a championship run, acquiring ace Chris Sale this offseason. The Blue Jays are a well-built team and will vie for a playoff spot again. The O's will be decent, but not great. The Yankees will have pitching issues. The Rays are relying on guys like Logan Morrison and Brad Miller still.
AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins
Summary: The Indians are built like the early 2000's Red Sox, who Terry Francona also managed, so they will be a very competitive team. The Royals still have a bunch of talent and might be motivated to win for the death of Yordano Ventura. The Tigers are aging and won't be able to play good enough D. The White Sox lost Sale and are a team without a leader. The Twins are still the Twins.
AL WEST
1. Texas Rangers
2. Houston Astros
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5. Oakland Athletics
Summary: The Rangers are loaded and will be motivated by their heartbreaking opening round loss to the Jays last year. The 'Stros are still young and should play decent, if erratic, ball. The Mariners meanwhile, well, you'll have to read below. The Angels and A's will finish like last year.
NL Wild Cards: Cardinals and Mets
AL Wild Cards: Blue Jays and Royals
MLB PLAYOFFS:
Wild Cards: Cardinals over Mets, Blue Jays over Royals
NL Divisional Round:
Cardinals vs. Cubs: Cardinals win
Nationals vs. Dodgers: Dodgers win
AL Divisional Round:
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox: Red Sox win
Indians vs. Rangers: Indians win
League Championship round:
NL: Cardinals vs. Dodgers: Dodgers win
AL: Red Sox vs. Indians: Red Sox win
World Series:
Dodgers vs. Red Sox: Red Sox win in 6 games
Red Sox are 2017 World Series Champions. You heard it here first. The Cubs have a surprising first round exit to their bitter rivals, the Cardinals.
MLB Awards:
AL MVP: Mookie Betts, Red Sox
NL MVP: Corey Seager, Dodgers
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Red Sox
NL Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard, Mets
AL Rookie: Tyler O'Neill, Mariners
NL Rookie: Dansby Swanson, Braves
Comment: Betts and Seager signal a new wave of baseball. Sale and Syndergaard lead their staffs. O'Neill is a real long shot, but if he gets his shot early enough I could see him emerging. The Braves are a young team who will be propelled by their young SS Swanson.
SEATTLE MARINERS PREDICTIONS
Record: 79-81
Yep. for the 5th straight time, the Mariners follow up a winning season with a losing season, although not by much. The hitting will be fine for the most part, but the rotation is way too shaky. Felix may well be on the decline. Iwakuma is old and might be done. Paxton is inconsistent and injury-prone, and Smyly and Gallardo are barely legit starters. If multiple starters get hurt, the Mariners are in for a world of hurt. The bullpen is not much, if any, better. There's a bunch of no names and unprovens. Sure, Diaz is electrifying, but he struggled towards the end of last year. Let's not forget the World Baseball Classic, which Felix and Diaz pitched in, which might cause them to falter down the stretch.
However, there will be some bright spots this year. A no hitter from Smyly or Paxton? Seager gets another all-star nod? But if this team doesn't have a winning record this year, it might be time to start thinking if they're cursed. At least with a decent enough LOSING record Scott Servais should hold on to his job.
Mariners leaders:
AVG: Robinson Cano
HR: Nelson Cruz
RBI: Kyle Seager
SB: Jarrod Dyson
Wins: Smyly
Saves: Diaz
Mariners team "awards":
Unsung hero: Mitch Hanniger
MVP: Seager
Cy Young: Smyly
Rookie: Tyler O'Neill
Let-down: Zunino
Defensive star: Jarrod Dyson
Out of nowhere: Taylor Motter
Comment: Hanniger has been quoted by Edgar Martinez to be the one Mariner hitter who will surprise us most, so I'm listening to 'Gar. Seager will play all around fantastic baseball, hopefully getting off to a fast start. Smyly will benefit from great D, so long as he can stay healthy. Zunino hopefully will bring his average up a bit and his K's down, but I won't hold my breath. Dyson will have some highlight reel catches in the outfield. Motter will be an electric presence off the bench and be involved in some game-winning and crucial plays.
Let's hope I'm wrong and the M's qualify for their first playoff spot in 16 years. I would never be more happy to be proven wrong. All in all, a winning season would be considered successful because the M's haven't had back-to-back winning seasons since '02-'03. But the playoffs are the goal, even if it's a wild card spot. There's two of them, so the M's have to do their best to at least snag one of them. But an AL West championship isn't out of the question. Again, let's hope I'm wrong. I am just basing this on history, and feel like I am being optimistic for that. Go M's, and good luck in 2017!
NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
2. New York Mets
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Miami Marlins
5. Philadelphia Phillies
Summary: The Nats are too loaded to not at least get 2nd, and if anyone in the Mets rotation struggles or gets hurt (like last year), it'll be hard for them to win the division. The Braves are a young team getting better and the Marlins aren't doing much. The Phillies still aren't making progress.
NL CENTRAL
1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Milwaukee Brewers
Summary: The Cubbies will get a playoff spot, no doubt. The Cards are almost always in it. The Buccos will compete but there's too much competition. It's a toss-up for last between the Brew Crew and the Reds.
NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Summary: I normally pick the Giants to win the division, but they're due for a down year, and if MadBum gets hurt they are in big trouble. The Dodgers are too talented to not compete for a playoff spot, and the Diamondbacks are a team on the rise. The Rockies will be a decent team and the Padres will probably finish in last.
AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. New York Yankees
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Summary: The BoSox loaded up for a championship run, acquiring ace Chris Sale this offseason. The Blue Jays are a well-built team and will vie for a playoff spot again. The O's will be decent, but not great. The Yankees will have pitching issues. The Rays are relying on guys like Logan Morrison and Brad Miller still.
AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins
Summary: The Indians are built like the early 2000's Red Sox, who Terry Francona also managed, so they will be a very competitive team. The Royals still have a bunch of talent and might be motivated to win for the death of Yordano Ventura. The Tigers are aging and won't be able to play good enough D. The White Sox lost Sale and are a team without a leader. The Twins are still the Twins.
AL WEST
1. Texas Rangers
2. Houston Astros
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5. Oakland Athletics
Summary: The Rangers are loaded and will be motivated by their heartbreaking opening round loss to the Jays last year. The 'Stros are still young and should play decent, if erratic, ball. The Mariners meanwhile, well, you'll have to read below. The Angels and A's will finish like last year.
NL Wild Cards: Cardinals and Mets
AL Wild Cards: Blue Jays and Royals
MLB PLAYOFFS:
Wild Cards: Cardinals over Mets, Blue Jays over Royals
NL Divisional Round:
Cardinals vs. Cubs: Cardinals win
Nationals vs. Dodgers: Dodgers win
AL Divisional Round:
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox: Red Sox win
Indians vs. Rangers: Indians win
League Championship round:
NL: Cardinals vs. Dodgers: Dodgers win
AL: Red Sox vs. Indians: Red Sox win
World Series:
Dodgers vs. Red Sox: Red Sox win in 6 games
Red Sox are 2017 World Series Champions. You heard it here first. The Cubs have a surprising first round exit to their bitter rivals, the Cardinals.
MLB Awards:
AL MVP: Mookie Betts, Red Sox
NL MVP: Corey Seager, Dodgers
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Red Sox
NL Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard, Mets
AL Rookie: Tyler O'Neill, Mariners
NL Rookie: Dansby Swanson, Braves
Comment: Betts and Seager signal a new wave of baseball. Sale and Syndergaard lead their staffs. O'Neill is a real long shot, but if he gets his shot early enough I could see him emerging. The Braves are a young team who will be propelled by their young SS Swanson.
SEATTLE MARINERS PREDICTIONS
Record: 79-81
Yep. for the 5th straight time, the Mariners follow up a winning season with a losing season, although not by much. The hitting will be fine for the most part, but the rotation is way too shaky. Felix may well be on the decline. Iwakuma is old and might be done. Paxton is inconsistent and injury-prone, and Smyly and Gallardo are barely legit starters. If multiple starters get hurt, the Mariners are in for a world of hurt. The bullpen is not much, if any, better. There's a bunch of no names and unprovens. Sure, Diaz is electrifying, but he struggled towards the end of last year. Let's not forget the World Baseball Classic, which Felix and Diaz pitched in, which might cause them to falter down the stretch.
However, there will be some bright spots this year. A no hitter from Smyly or Paxton? Seager gets another all-star nod? But if this team doesn't have a winning record this year, it might be time to start thinking if they're cursed. At least with a decent enough LOSING record Scott Servais should hold on to his job.
Mariners leaders:
AVG: Robinson Cano
HR: Nelson Cruz
RBI: Kyle Seager
SB: Jarrod Dyson
Wins: Smyly
Saves: Diaz
Mariners team "awards":
Unsung hero: Mitch Hanniger
MVP: Seager
Cy Young: Smyly
Rookie: Tyler O'Neill
Let-down: Zunino
Defensive star: Jarrod Dyson
Out of nowhere: Taylor Motter
Comment: Hanniger has been quoted by Edgar Martinez to be the one Mariner hitter who will surprise us most, so I'm listening to 'Gar. Seager will play all around fantastic baseball, hopefully getting off to a fast start. Smyly will benefit from great D, so long as he can stay healthy. Zunino hopefully will bring his average up a bit and his K's down, but I won't hold my breath. Dyson will have some highlight reel catches in the outfield. Motter will be an electric presence off the bench and be involved in some game-winning and crucial plays.
Let's hope I'm wrong and the M's qualify for their first playoff spot in 16 years. I would never be more happy to be proven wrong. All in all, a winning season would be considered successful because the M's haven't had back-to-back winning seasons since '02-'03. But the playoffs are the goal, even if it's a wild card spot. There's two of them, so the M's have to do their best to at least snag one of them. But an AL West championship isn't out of the question. Again, let's hope I'm wrong. I am just basing this on history, and feel like I am being optimistic for that. Go M's, and good luck in 2017!
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