The future of the Mariners

In April, I discussed how I could have been more excited for the Mariners' upcoming season, their slow-ish start, and who's to blame for the lack of success.  How little I knew then.  Sure, this team went on a hot streak from May into June to get a 10-game lead in the division, but then we all know what happened.  They currently sit five games out, a difference of 15 games over roughly two months.  And the biggest culprit to the Mariners' lack of success is well documented--the hitting or lack thereof.  They currently have an MLB-low .215 team batting average for the year and lead the majors in strikeouts.  The team's hitting approach is easily the worst in the majors.  There is no reason this team should not be hitting at least 25th in the majors and not be #1 in strikeouts with this roster.  

This team has been moving backward for the last three seasons.  They have gone from the playoffs in 2022 to barely missing them in 2023 to likely missing them by a bit more here in 2024.  That is the very definition of trending downward.  We've seen coaches or managers canned after one off year many times.  Sure, Servais has built a reputation and system here, but whatever he's done is clearly not working.  They were supposed to take steps forward after 2022, but instead have only gone backward.  Good coaching takes teams heading in the right direction, not steering them the other way. 

But as I've said, it's not entirely Servais's or the coaching staff's fault.  I guarantee if you could read his mind, you'd hear his grumblings with the lack of talent on the hitting side of things.  Too often he's had to put less than ideal players hitting third or cleanup.  Too often he hasn't had a capable guy to be the bridge from the starter to Munoz. 

So should he go?  I think he has to.  We see coaches and managers let go all the time when it's not entirely their fault.  Or even mostly.  But the Mariners would be smart to emulate what the Seahawks did and bring in an entirely new coaching staff.  Maybe try holding onto pitching coach Pete Woodworth, if possible.  

My biggest gripe with Servais is his lack of emotion.  I grew up with fiery Lou Piniella, so I almost expect it.  Servais, even in the worst of losses, is too robotic and lacks energy.  He does on occasion go out and fight for his players against the umpires, but it's not often enough.  Sure, he's good at making sure this team doesn't get too high or too low, but I really think he lacks in the motivation department.  

I fully expect the Mariners to finish around .500, missing the playoffs by a decent amount of games, and questions begin swirling about the team's future.  I'm going to one game this year (as I've already bought the tickets), but that's it.  I've paid less attention to them this year than any other year in my entire adult life.   How much I invest in them next season depends on how much they change going into 2025.  Will they have a new manager?  Will they finally invest in some quality bats?  Will they possibly even make a change at president or GM?  The more that changes for the better, the more I'll invest.  However, if they merely try to "stay the course", I assure you, they won't be getting much from me next season at all.  Of course, if they make so many changes that it becomes a rebuild, that will not do it for me.  All this disappointment has taken a toll on me, and I'm sick of it.     

Update: Servais was fired on Aug. 22, and the Mariners have done okay since his firing.  Maybe slightly better.  Do I agree with it?  Yes.  He and Bud Black were the only two managers in MLB to have managed for as long as they had without any divisional playoff wins or division titles.  Yes, Bud Black needs to go as well.  I like Dan Wilson, I think he's more relatable for the players.  Servais seemed to have this "my door's always open but not" type energy.  Like, he would come off as affable but you'd realize he wasn't as much.  

The team also announced Jerry Dipoto would be retained, and I'm honestly okay with that.  I know a lot of Mariners fans aren't.  But here's what Jerry has done: Built one of the best pitching rotations in baseball.  Built a farm system that has been ranked near the top often in the last 5 years.  And he's kept us at least as a competitive team, avoiding terrible seasons.  Jack Zduriencik and Bill Bavasi couldn't say that.  Dipoto is at least better than them, and I'd rather not let him go and risk getting another Zduriencik or Bavasi.  

It's hard to say how much of my time and money I'll invest into the Mariners in 2025.  Likely similar to 2024.  I may go to one game.  I'm not paying for cable or Fubo TV to watch them.  I likely won't buy any merchandise.  I'd love to be more invested, but I've got to see some actual championship-type moves made first.

Who's to Fault for the Mariners

 I decided against doing an MLB predictions post.  It's kind of my way of protesting the crap uniforms this season.  But mostly, I forgot.  I went into the 2024 season with less excitement than ever for the Mariners and baseball in general.  It's the first MLB season of my life that I won't be able to watch the Mariners on cable, after ditching it late last year.  So far, I've resorted to other methods (Ahoy, mateys!) to watch Mariner games, but I've also enjoyed simply listening on the Seattle sports app on occasion.  

Anyway, the Mariners have gotten off to another slow start, starting as bad as 6-10 but they won their last couple and now sit at 8-10.  But still, not the ideal start.  Just like the last couple of years, this team has gotten off to a slow start, and we may be looking back at this slow start just like we did last year as to why this team maybe barely misses the playoffs again.  

Fortunately, the entire AL West has gotten off to a slow start.  The Astros started even slower than the Mariners, and the defending WS champ Rangers lead the division with a .500 record.  The Mariners only sit one game back.   But we all know someone is bound to go on a run in the middle of the season.  We can only hope it'll be the Mariners, but it'll more likely be the Rangers or Astros.

So who is to blame for all of this?  I got bad news.  It's everyone.  Ownership.  Front office.  Coaching.  Players.  Every single department is to blame.  But as most sports fans know, it starts with ownership.  

The Mariners made a few cost-cutting moves this off-season, such as trading Eugenio Suarez and Robbie Ray.  This to me screams that ownership told the Front Office (Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander) that they could only spend up to a certain amount.  That's not the way to successfully run a team.  The ownership group, headed by John Stanton, handcuffed the Front Office and made their jobs tougher.  

However, the Front Office could have made better decisions, despite being handcuffed.  Was it wise to trade all we did for Jorge Polanco?  The Mariners have an influx of pitching but didn't use any as trade chips, either.  But honestly, I can't fault them too much.  They did what they thought was the best move they could do at the time.  Again, given free rein and virtually unlimited spending, this Mariners team would look better this season.  Think about if the Mariners could spend like the Dodgers.  Ah, if only.

I do also think coaching factors in as well.  I think preaching the same message over and over has gotten old with some players.  I wish I could read the minds of JP Crawford, Cal Raleigh, and Julio Rodriguez, and see if they'd rather have a different manager.  I think they would.  Now, Scott Servais isn't a terrible manager, but he does very little to elevate the team.  No one will ever call him one of the game's best.  Pete Carroll was considered one of football's best.  And he was just let go.  So why should the Mariners hold on to Servais if the team struggles more?  I know, different sport and different circumstances, but Servais has been given an incredibly long leash.  And I personally feel (along with many Mariners fans) that the Mariners success that they've had has been in spite of Servais, not because of him.

But all of this does trickle down to the players.  This still is a team that, if they all play to their capabilities, can win a lot of games.  That's the problem, though.  They don't, at least not early in the season.  So, what gives?  

It does all start at the top with ownership, and what gets them panicking and willing to change things is a loss of sales and money.  So that's why I urge Mariners fans to sail the fine seas with me in order to watch games.  Cut ties with cable.  Do not upgrade to be able to watch Mariners games.  Do not subscribe to Fubo TV.  And for the love of God, do not purchase those awful Fanatics jerseys.  And don't go to a game unless it's a special occasion.  

We really should only reward the team when they succeed.  For now, I'm withholding my money from any Mariners-related purchase until they start really winning.  I urge others to do the same.  If enough of us do it, ownership will get the message.  They are the main ones to blame.  

The Mariners have already reached their peak, at least with this front office and ownership

Hey, this is Brian from Oct. 2023, the regular text is what I wrote towards the end of July.  It was right before the Mariners went on their amazing run in August.  Unfortunately, they followed it up with a stinker of a month in September.  I thought I'd go through and make any additional comments to what I previously said.  I'll save them for after the paragraph (if I have a comment), so I'm not interrupting too often.  

 I haven't done a mid-season review of the Mariners, but I think it's obvious why I haven't.  This year's team, the 2023 team, is painfully mediocre.  They capitalized last year on a lot of players finding success, and most of those same players have not been able to replicate last year's success, for the most part.  I believe last year was their peak, and they will not reach any higher heights with this front office and ownership.  I think this season is more of a regression to the mean.  I think the average amount of wins you will get with these kinds of teams is 80-90.  They're slightly better than average, on average.  This year, they're just average.

The Mariners finished with 88 wins, right where I said.  90 wins is about their ceiling.  They may get lucky and get 92, 93, 94 wins, but a division title is unlikely given the competition from Texas and Houston.

One reason why this team will never eclipse 90 or so wins or win the division or even get to the ALCS is because ownership has restricted spending.  Take a look at the last couple of big contracts they dished out: Robinson Cano and Robbie Ray.  It's safe to say that so far they have not been worth the money spent.  Cano did have a couple great years, but he was unable to help us get to the playoffs.  I think ownership and John Stanton are extremely hesitant to give Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander the green light on doling out a contract worth $100m or more, mainly because the last few haven't quite panned out.  They aren't the cheapest ownership group in sports, but they're cheaper than the average ownership group.  

Another reason why this team will never reach a higher peak is because hitting just cannot be developed in a consistent manner.  How many hitters have come through the Mariners' minor league system and had a successful career with them?  Not many.  Kyle Seager is basically the only one in the last 20 years.  Julio and Cal Raleigh can perhaps join that list, but both have had down years after great first full years in 2022.  For whatever reason, this team and organization can develop pitchers as well as anyone, but they cannot develop hitters.  The most baffling thing to me is how they preach "Control the Zone", yet the Mariners are consistently near the top of the league in strikeouts.  

Julio's massive August really boons his season, and I think it's safe to say he's a rare success story coming out of the minors.  Cal is borderline.  But Julio had so much upside it was hard for him not to pan out.  Also, the Mariners finished 2nd in the AL in strikeouts, behind only Minnesota.  But Minnesota was 4th in the AL in OPS, while the Mariners were barely above league average.  

The one thing I can fault the front office for most is the construction of the roster, namely the position players.  A team built on pitching doesn't need to be complemented by power hitters who strike out a lot.  They need consistent on-base guys that have speed, get around the bases, and play small ball to support the pitching.  It is a lot easier to play small ball and manufacture runs than it is to rely upon the home run ball.  Relying upon the home run ball is just asking for spurts of bad offense, which will ultimately result in losses.  Acquiring guys like Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez were not the smartest moves, because this team already had high strikeout guys in Julio, Kelenic, and Raleigh coming up through the system.  It's like having a football team with a great defense, but an offense that cannot run the ball nor has a short passing game.

One thing I am always quick to point the finger at during losses is coaching, namely manager Scott Servais.  But Servais is not an awful manager.  However, I do not believe he is the type of manager that can elevate a team with average talent.  He's great at motivating young guys, and would probably have a surprising amount of success on a team like Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Colorado.  And he'd probably do ok managing elite talent-level teams, like the Dodgers and Astros (which is true of most managers).  His in-game management and decisions leave a lot to be desired, such as his reliance on having a left/right advantage with the opposition.  Often, he will remove a better hitter for a worse hitter just to get that advantage.  He doesn't seem to have a good game feel, relying on colder bats in clutch moments than hot ones.  I don't think he's the biggest reason for this team's inability to do better than 2022, but he's certainly a contributing factor.  I think Servais, once he leaves the Mariners, will likely be mostly remembered for his decision to put in Robbie Ray against Yordan Alvarez in Game 1 of the ALDS.  If he goes with Swanson or someone else, the Mariners likely win the game, and who knows how that series turns out.    

I will always root for the Mariners, but it is extremely disheartening being as confident as I am that this team will never eclipse 2022 with its current front office, management, and likely, ownership.  In fact, I am willing to bet on it.  If the Mariners win the World Series under Dipoto/Hollander/Servais, I will get a tattoo of the Mariners logo and the words "____ World Series Champions", with the year they won it at the beginning.  I don't like the idea of permanently scarring my body with tattoos, but that just shows how confident I am that this team will not do any better than last season.  I could say I'd get a tattoo if they reach the ALCS or the World Series, but a tattoo saying "2024 ALCS representative" sounds pretty lame to me.  If they get to the ALCS or World Series under this regime, I will spend the combination of wins and team batting average on Mariners merchandise.  So if they win 95 games and have a team batting average of .250, I will buy $345 dollars worth of Mariners merchandise.

I'm sticking to this.  So long as Jerry, Justin, and Scott are with the Mariners, if the Mariners win a World Series, I will get that tattoo.  And I'll stand by what I said about spending money on merch, too.  I am that confident that this team will not do better than a borderline wild card/ALDS loser.  Last year, 2022, was their peak.

I hope I am wrong about all of this and the team surprises me.  But I have watched enough baseball, specifically Mariners baseball, to know that this team is still shackled by its ownership, front office, management, and roster construction.  They will have plenty of great moments and may once again sneak into the playoffs, but I will be beyond shocked if this team plays like one of the league's absolute best for any significant amount of time under this regime.  In my opinion, there are too many things that would need to change about this team and organization in order to consistently become one of MLB's best.  Simply firing Servais wouldn't do it.  Acquiring a contact bat: same thing.  But I can still enjoy their good moments when they come, despite the fact that I will be wishing they were more frequent.

Update, 2024: Well, the Mariners fired Servais, so I'm taking the tattoo offer off the table.  I'll still spend money on the Mariners if they at least make the ALCS under Dipoto.  But I knew Servais wasn't the guy to take us to the World Series.  But perhaps Wilson or someone else is.  

2018 MLB and Mariners Predictions!

The 2018 MLB season is fast approaching and Spring Training is underway.  I sometimes wait until right before the MLB (or Mariners) opener to post predictions, but this time I thought I'd get a jump start on it and make my predictions now.  I'm going to predict how each division will go (plus playoffs), and will also predict award winners and go further into detail on how the Seattle Mariners season will go.  Let's just say there will be a few surprises.  I'm going to start with the NL East and move west so that the Mariners and the AL West are last.

* = Wild Card

NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Miami Marlins
Comment: The Nats remain the favorite boasting the best overall roster in the division.  The Mets could make a run but their pitching would have to hold up health-wise, something they haven't really proven to do.  The Phillies should be improved from 2017 as they're a young team on the rise.  The Braves are still a ways a way, and the Marlins are in complete rebuild mode and would surprise no one if they finished with the worst record in MLB.

NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs*
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Cincinnati Reds
Comment: Every so often, the Cardinals surprise everyone and have a great season.  That's what makes them a popular team to root for.  I think that will happen this year.  The Cubs will meanwhile limp into the playoffs as the wild card.  The Brewers will be improved with Cain and Yelich, but it won't be enough to get a playoff spot.  The Pirates traded Andrew McCutcheon and may be heading for a rebuild.  The Reds still are a few pieces away from contending.

NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks*
3. San Francisco Giants
4 .Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Comment: The Dodgers boast the best roster in the NL, if not all of MLB.  The D-Backs will do their best to prove they're not a one-year wonder.  The Giants will be improved, but not the same Giants they used to be.  The Rockies will compete but will be needing pitching help (as usual).  The Padres will be the Padres.

AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. New York Yankees
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Comment: The Red Sox will be knocking the cover off the ball, boasting the best team batting average.  The Blue Jays will compete for a wild card for most of the year but fall short.  The Yankees will have a disappointing season in Aaron Boone's first year as manager, as their expectations become too much.  The Orioles will compete but play in too good of a division.  The Rays will be perhaps the best last placed team in baseball.

AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Comment: The Indians remain the favorites in not a particularly strong division anymore.  The Twins will want to prove last year was not a fluke.  The White Sox should hang around but be missing a few pieces to really go on a run.  The Royals are losing pieces left and right (Cain, Hosmer) and may be headed for a rebuild.  The Tigers proved they're headed for a small rebuild by trading Justin Verlander last season.

AL WEST
1. Houston Astros
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim*
3. Seattle Mariners*
4. Texas Rangers
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: The Astros are built for the long haul, and it would be quite the surprise if they didn't compete for the division crown again.  The Angels, after acquiring Shohei Ohtani, will be improved and grab a hold of the Wild Card.  Meanwhile, the Mariners surprise most everyone, and just when people aren't expecting them to do much they go on  a September run and claim the second wild card over the Twins and Blue Jays.  The Rangers have a slightly down season.  The A's continue the churning of their roster but will compete.

So onto the playoffs.  The Wild Card games first.

NL WILD CARD: Cubs at Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks win
The D-Backs win a game they are the underdogs at home in, and relish their first playoff victory in quite some time.

AL WILD CARD: Mariners at Angels: Angels win
In a heated division rival matchup, the Mariners don't muster much offense despite a decent performance from James Paxton.  So the Mariners make the playoffs, but only as a wild card and will still hold the distinction of not HOSTING a playoff game in over 17 years.

Now the divisional round.  Who will have the edge?

NL Divisional Round
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers: Dodgers win
Cardinals vs. Nationals: Nationals win

AL Divisional Round
Angels vs. Astros: Astros win
Indians vs. Red Sox: Indians win

Comment: The Dodgers take care of their division rival as do the Astros.  The Nats take care of the Cardinals in a 5 game series.  The Indians/Red Sox series features Terry Francona taking on his former team, and it proves to make a difference as the Indians "upset" the Sox.

NL Championship Series:
Nationals vs. Dodgers: Nationals Win

AL Championship Series:
Indians vs. Astros: Astros Win

Comment: The NL hasn't had a team win the pennant that had won it recently since the Giants, and haven't had a repeat NL Champ since the 08-09 Phillies.  The Dodgers therefore blow it.  Also, with the Nationals making the World Series, the Mariners become the only current franchise to have never won a league pennant.  The Indians/Astros series is a classic, goes to 7 games, and the Astros win Game 7 in walk off fashion thanks to a George Springer double.

World Series: Nationals vs. Astros: Nationals in 7
In a matchup of two teams that have changed names/leagues in the past 20 years (Nationals used to be the Expos, the Astros used to be in the NL), the Nationals come out on top, thanks to a diving catch by Bryce Harper which saves multiple runs from scoring in game 7.  The Nats win their first World Series thanks to World Series MVP Bryce Harper, who hits four homers in the series.

Now, time for some awards:
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
NL MVP: Bryce Harper, Nationals
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Red Sox
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strausberg, Nationals
AL Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani, Red Sox
NL Rookie of the Year: Tyler O'Neill, Cardinals (Ouch)
AL Manager of the Year: Scott Servais, Mariners
NL Manager of the Year: Dave Martinez, Nationals

Comment: I usually miss on most or all of these, but it's fun nonetheless.  Mike Trout is always a safe pick for MVP.  His phenom counterpart in the NL, Bryce Harper, is a safe pick for MVP as well.  Chris Sale is another safe pick (I know, I know), and on the Nats, Strausberg, not Scherzer, will be their best pitcher.  Shohei Ohtani has a great rookie campaign and wins ROY.  Tyler O'Neill who last year at this time was in the Mariners farm system, gets called up and becomes a rookie sensation and wins NLROY.  Scott Servais wins Manager of the Year for guiding the Mariners to their first playoffs in 17 years.  Dave Martinez wins the NL award for guiding the Nats to their first World Series championship in club history.


So how will the Mariners get there?  Hard to say.  You can often point at bad luck for being a reason for the Mariners not making the playoffs in a lot of recent seasons, so I'll say this season luck will be on their side.  They will hang around for most of the season, never winning too many or losing too many in a row.  September though, they go on a run and win a lot of close games, with Edwin Diaz at this point being lights out.  I just think that whenever we expect them to do well they disappoint, so this season most fans aren't expecting much, so I'll say they surprise.  Finally, some Mariners awards and stat leaders:

MVP: Robinson Cano
Cy Young: James Paxton
Unsung hero: Dee Gordon
Average: Cano
Homers: Nelson Cruz
Stolen Bases: Gordon
Hits: Cano
Strikeouts: Paxton
Wins: Felix Hernandez
Saves: Edwin Diaz