Mariners Off-Season Outlook after Two Payroll-Shedding Trades

Two big trades have been made so far this off-season for the Mariners; two trades that their fans have ridiculed the front office for making.  First was Eugenio Suarez to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a backup catcher and a reliever.  Then Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, and Evan White were sent to the Atlanta Braves for a AAAA-type pitcher (good in minors, bad in majors) and a solid relief pitching prospect.  Both moves have been seen as ways of shedding payroll.  Why would they do this?  Let me explain.

First off, there is no salary cap in MLB like there is in the NFL.  Owners are free to let their GMs spend as much as they want.  They'll just have to foot the bill for any salaries/bonuses they hand out.  It seems in the Mariners case that ownership has restricted the front office of Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander, who definitely would like to spend on a few big bats, but may have needed to shed some payroll first in order to be under a certain budget.  This isn't what fans of a team want to hear.  You should want your owner to allow your GM to spend as much as they need to in order to field the best team possible.  Limiting them only limits their chances of building a successful team.

But let's look at the good.  We haven't lost a ton.  Eugenio Suarez regressed in 2023 after a very solid 2022.  His OPS was down from .791 to .714, and his league-leading strikeout totals rose further.  He did play gold glove-caliber defense, but his offensive numbers still dropped, especially his power.  Jerry Dipoto made the comment that they wanted to be a more contact-focused offense, but my question is this: Why acquire high strikeout guys in the first place?  Jerry chose to trade for Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez, known high-strikeout guys.  Perhaps his focus has changed, but that's not altogether encouraging.  

And of the three players we sent to the Braves, none were really huge impact players.  Yes, Kelenic still has a bit of potential, but he had two and a half seasons to realize it with us and just couldn't.  He had one hot stretch in early 2023, but that's it.  He's been largely a bust offensively.  He also strikes out a lot, like Suarez.  Marco was a back-of-the-rotation starter, who was hurt a huge chunk of 2023.  He was the longest-tenured Mariner, but he had reached his ceiling, and his ceiling quite frankly wasn't good enough for our rotation anymore.  And Evan White battled injuries and offensive inconsistency and lost his job to Ty France.  He wasn't going to regain his spot.  

So, we shed some dead weight, honestly.  Suarez and Hernandez (who left in Free Agency) were occasional good middle-of-the-order hitters, but just struck out too much.  That led to too many times where all we needed was a ball put in play and they struck out.  Marco was a lot of money for little return, and Evan White and Kelenic could never fully figure out hitting with us.  

But now let's look at the bad.  There are a ton of holes on this team.  Both corner outfield spots, DH, third base, and second base all need to be addressed.  There's also the fact we could use another starter with Robbie Ray hurt (*cough cough* Blake Snell! *cough*).  We should not be going into 2024 with our middle-of-the-lineup players being France and Raleigh.  This team, as it stands now, would certainly regress in 2024 if no major additions were made.  

So we can only hope and pray as Mariners fans that Jerry and Justin have a plan.  I'm hoping that they were given the luxury of increasing payroll at least a bit.  Perhaps they did the math and realized the guys they wanted to sign or extend after a trade would require more financial room than they already had.  But just because they have their eyes on a few players, doesn't mean they'll get them.  I worry they may have made this room unnecessarily, and they might strike out on acquiring some big names.  This off-season, simply saying "We tried" is not good enough.  

Our dream, of course, is to see big name after big name acquired by the Mariners.  We want to see the social media posts of "Welcome to Seattle, ____!" for a lot of household names.  We do not want to see it for players along the likes of Tommy LaStella, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock.  Of course, not every good player is available in free agency, and some will require a trade to acquire.  I just hope we don't mortgage our future in the hopes of getting back to the post-season.  That was attempted and failed at too many times from 2002-2021.  

The rest of this off-season will be hugely telling for this team and its future.  Jerry and Justin have their work cut out for them.  I think this is the single most important off-season of their Mariners' careers because a failure this off-season will likely eventually cost them their jobs.  I'm sure they're aware of the magnitude of this off-season.  Simply put, an abysmal showing this off-season, and they should not be surprised if ticket and merch sales drop.  At that point, none of us should spend any extra money on this team.  But a good showing will bring this fanbase back around and instill hope for 2024.

Five Biggest Needs for the Mariners for 2024

 The Mariners finished 2023 88-74, missing the playoffs by 1 game and the division by 2 games.  They failed to follow up their magical 2022 season with a successful step forward.  At best, they took a step sideways.  General Manager Justin Hollander has even admitted their moves this past off-season were not adequate enough.  They acquired Teoscar Hernandez and Kolten Wong in trades, and signed AJ Pollock, Tommy LaStella, and Cooper Hummel.  Only one of those players, Hernandez, was on the big league team at season's end.  It's safe to say they need to do better this off-season.  So I have compiled the five biggest needs for this team, and some possible names who could fill that role.  Ranked, in order from least to most important, here are the five biggest needs this Mariners team needs to address this off-season:

5) Rotation depth
Possible candidates: Vince Velasquez, Jordan Montgomery
It'll be hard to say how the back end of the rotation will look come 2024, but I think one thing the Mariners need is depth at the rotation.  Someone who would potentially be okay signing a minor league deal with an option to make the big league club.  I wouldn't be opposed to either Woo or Miller starting 2024 in the minors, especially if they have a rocky spring.  But one thing that hurt the Mariners this past season was the lack of rotation depth.  They need to sign someone to bolster the rotation.  
Result: No one?  I can't think of anyone the Mariners acquired for rotation depth.  They briefly had Anthony DeSclafani before shipping him out for Jorge Polanco.  Grade: INC.

4) Right-handed/switch-hitting outfielder with range, contact
Possible candidates: Harrison Bader, Jurickson Profar
We absolutely should not be starting Dylan Moore or Sam Haggerty in the outfield while on a playoff run again.  They are bench guys.  Jerry and Justin tried to address this with Pollock and LaStella last off-season but to no avail.  I like Bader, and while he struggled in Cincy, I love his effort on defense.  And Profar is a switch-hitter, but hits better historically right-handed, and he would add even more culture to our locker room, being from Curacao.  
Result: We got Mitch back... yay?  I like Mitch, I just hope he can stay healthy.  But he does not have much range or contact.  We also got Luke Raley, but he's a lefty and he too does not have much range.  Grade: D

3) Infielder that can hit
Possible candidates: Rhys Hoskins, Amed Rosario
Our infield just seemed to be filled with black holes this year, not counting JP.  But it seemed someone was always struggling, whether it was Ty, Geno, or whoever was at second base.  Rhys Hoskins was out all of 2023, but if we shipped Ty for a prospect or in a package, I'd love to have Hoskins instead.  And Rosario still can hit around .250 with solid D.  Our infield just needs to improve.  We still haven't found our answer at second base since trading Cano.
Result: We got Jorge Polanco, and if you want to count him, Mitch Garver, but he's counted more for #1 (see below).  We also got the aforementioned Luke Raley.  Our infield should hit better next season.  But we did have to give up a lot to get Polanco.  Grade: B-

2) Veteran closer/bullpen help
Possible candidates: Will Smith, Craig Kimbrel, Ryne Stanek
With the trade of Sewald and the loss of Penn Murfee to the Mets, our bullpen is in need of help.  Brash was overworked, guys like Topa, Campbell, and Thornton were used in higher-leverage situations than they should be, and it showed.  I would love it if we could bring in a veteran guy to add a presence and help mentor some younger guys.  
Result: We got Gregory Santos, he'd be the closest thing to a "veteran" guy that we acquired.  Hopefully he'll fit right in, but he might take a while to do so since he came to us hurt.  Lovely.  Update: We also signed Ryne Stanek late, a guy who I really like, so I'll raise this a tad.  Grade: B+

1) Full-time legit Designated Hitter
Possible candidates: Shohei Ohtani, Jorge Soler, JD Martinez
The last good full-time DH the Mariners had was Nelson Cruz, in 2018.  Before that, it was Edgar.  This team absolutely should not go into the season with guys like LaStella, Hummel, or Haggerty DH'ing.  Obviously, Shohei would be the ideal choice, with him joining the rotation in 2025 due to injury.  Soler would be a nice substitute if his player option falls through.  And I wanted us to acquire JD Martinez last off-season, but of course, he goes to LA.  I doubt he'd come here, but you never know.  We just need SOMEONE at DH we can count on, someone we can put at 3 or 4 in the order and never have to worry about.  
Result: We got Mitch Garver, our one lone significant free agent signing.  Would it be too much to ask for another Nelson Cruz type hitter?  I guess so.  We'll have to see what Mitch does.  I'm more excited for his bat than Polanco's or Raley's, for what it's worth.  Grade: B

Well, that is my list of the top 5 needs the Mariners have this coming off-season.  Let's hope they address most, if not all, of these.  I feel like if they address most of these adequately, a return to the playoffs in 2024 will be in the cards.  I'm going to come back, perhaps around spring training time, and comment on what they did to address these needs, and if it was good enough.  

Where the Mariners Stand with Me

Last time I did a blog post on the Mariners, they were more than halfway into their 2015 season, but hadn't yet fired their GM or manager, which they eventually did.  I said I was done with them, done buying their merchandise or going to games and not watching them on TV as much.  I stood by that, not buying any Mariner merch since then and I didn't go to a game or really watch much in the last month or two.  As the season winded down, the Mariners made changes and it left Mariners fans like myself feeling an all too familiar feeling: Transition for the sake of progress.  We've seen this before with the M's, and it's gotten them nowhere, so that gives us little hope this time around it will be any different.

I think the general consensus after this offseason is muted optimism.  No one is expecting the Mariners to succeed this year, although some are saying they could be a surprise team.  The Mariners made a few good moves this offseason, but nothing too large like signing a huge free agent like has happened recently.  New General Manager Jerry Dipoto filled some holes at first, centerfield, catcher, and a corner outfield spot fairly well, with players that are more all-around players rather than big bats like Jack Zduriencik sought.  The lineup does look better and the rotation if healthy as a whole looks like a top 10 rotation, but the bullpen remains a question mark with new closer Steve Cishek.

Also, I won't be doing an official Mariners prediction blog post, because I don't want to burden this team with expectations nor be let down when or if they fail to meet them.  Consider this my predictions, more or less.

I don't really plan on going to any games this season, although there is the Star Wars weekend in August that I might have to attend, but other than that, my spending money will go very little if any towards the Mariners.  They need to prove to me that they're committed to winning and that the atmosphere in the organization has changed.  The Mariners are almost like the Cleveland Browns of baseball--no matter what moves they make, at least in the back of your mind you expect them to disappoint.

So what will happen this year?  It's hard to say.  A lot of things could happen, one of the worst possible things being a severe injury to Felix, Cano, Seager, or Cruz.  But if this team stays at least relatively healthy and plays as a unit, I could see this team surprising.  I really could.  I did, however, predict the Mariners to be in 2nd place in my MLB Predictions for 2016, although I had them missing out on the playoffs (again).

It's a wait and see approach with this team.  How this team does in the first few months will really show us the direction this team is headed.  Either fans will slowly hop on board the Mariners bandwagon or the Mariners will have lost all interest before the All-Star break.  Time will tell.  But, as a Mariner fan (more or less) until the day I die, I will finish with this: GO MARINERS!