Survivor 48 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 48 is a bit less than a month away, and with the official cast release, it's time for my cast review and predictions.  Like I've done in the New Era so far, I will give each player two comparables of who they remind me of, and then give them a placement I think they'll fall into with a range of 6 spots, such as 12th to 7th, 18th to 12th, etc.  Last season I only got 6/18 after routinely getting at least 8 or 9 right.  So I have to return to form this season.  I'll organize them alphabetically by first name so I can find them easier later on.  I'll be updating these as they get voted out to see if I'm right or wrong; those updates will be in BOLD.  Unlike last season, I'm not really going to watch videos of them ahead of time.  Just gonna go off of Entertainment Weekly's article about it done by Dalton Ross, which you can see here.  Also, I will color code these by tribe.  There is CIVA, LAGI, and VULA.  And lastly, I'll put together a boot order given my placements for them at the end of all this.  Without further ado, here's the cast:

Bianca Roses, 33, PR Consultant from Arlington, VA
Comparables: Moriah Gaynor, Sarah Wade
Bianca is one of the most high-variance players this season.  She could be an early boot or make it to the finale, or anywhere in-between.  Then I look at her tribe.  Oh yeah, that's my pick for the disaster tribe.  Therefore, I think I have to say Bianca is an early boot.  Possibly a mergatory or earlier boot, just like Moriah and Sarah were.  Sometimes tribe placement is just awful luck, and I think that'll be the case for Bianca.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 14th. Oddly her tribe was strong, but she got swapped to a bad one and lost her vote due to chance.  All luck here.  

Cedrek McFadden, 45, Surgeon from Greenville, SC
Comparables: Rocksroy Bailey, Josh Wilder
I chose Rocksroy because of the glasses and Josh because of them both being surgeons.  Neither Josh nor Rocksroy made it terribly far, so I'm leaning towards the same with Cedrek.  He seems to check most boxes, but I just have this feeling he'll either not be in the majority alliance or he'll be blindsided.  If he tries to assume too much of a leadership role and becomes a bit too bossy, the best I could see for him is a Bruce-type run in 45.  But that's unlikely.  I don't think Green will be a disaster tribe, but I do think they'll be going to multiple pre-merge tribals, with Cedrek being one of the casualties.
Predicted finish: 15th-10th
CORRECT, 11th.  He was not in the majority alliance like I predicted, but he did not go pre-merge.  I like how I said "I don't think Green will be a disaster tribe".  Whoopsie!

Charity Nelms, 34, Flight Attendant from St. Petersburg, FL
Comparables: Hannah Rose, Sierra Wright
I like how Charity says she doesn't quit, which is more than I can say for her first comparable.  But I don't like how she says her hidden talent is singing.  We saw how Soda's singing in 46 got under some of her tribemates' skins.  I'm not high on any of the women on the Orange tribe, but if I had to pick one, I guess I'd pick Charity.  If she can form a tight duo or trio with any of the men on her tribe, I can see her getting far.  But I do see Charity becoming a casualty of a vote somewhere along the way.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th
WRONG, 13th.  I actually overestimated her.  She was, however, in between Hannah's and Sierra's placements.  I should have gone for that.

Chrissy Sarnowki, 55, Fire Lieutenant, South Side of Chicago, IL
Comparables: Chrissy Hofbeck, Julie Wolfe
Chrissy Hofbeck is a comparable because of the name and Julie because she was also a female firefighter.  Anyway, Chrissy is this season's token older woman, so we know a losing finalist is certainly a possible spot for her.  She could also be an early boot.  But I think she'll be on a strong enough tribe and make a connection.  Someone: Kevin, Mitch, Kamilla, Charity, will want her as their #2.  She's making it fairly far, but not winning.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 10th.  So close, too!  Chrissy just got a tad too aggressive.  I thought she'd be passive and coast to the end as a zero vote finalist, but nope.

David Kinner, 39, Stunt Performer from Buena Park, CA
Comparables: Jonathan Young, Nick Maiorano
David is definitely a physical tank like Jonathan, but maybe not as much of a tank.  It should be enough to carry him to the merge, unless he's bad socially, which I can't rule out for him.  But here's the thing: If I had to bet on one player NOT winning this game.... I think I'd say David.  Either him or Thomas (see below).  Which is odd, because David would be one of the ones I'm most sure makes the merge.  He will have a ginormous bullseye on his back post-merge.  Even if the group consensus is that David isn't a threat, he'll then not be looked at positively enough, even if he gets to the Final Tribal Council.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
CORRECT, 9th.  If David had a decent social game, which it looked like pre-merge he did, he could've won.  But guys like this always ended up rubbing people the wrong way... eventually.

Eva Erickson, 24, PhD Candidate from Providence, RI
Comparables: Ashley Nolan, Noelle Lambert
Eva's a spunky former hockey player who is open about her autism.  It'll likely be a reason to root for her, like Noelle's disability was.  Physically, she reminds me of Ashley Nolan, and I believe both Ashley and Noelle were mid-jury boots.  I think Eva will be, too.  She's only 24, so she may get taken advantage of at some point.  I'd be mildly surprised to see her as a pre-merge boot, but I wouldn't rule it out.  I mean, she's on my predicted disaster tribe.  Possibly a casualty around the mergatory, as well.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
WRONG, 2nd.  I was wrong about Eva, I guess.  She ended up getting the 2nd most votes at the FTC, something I certainly didn't see happening, even up to the Finale.

Joe Hunter, 45, Fire Captain from West Sacramento, CA
Comparables: Danny Massa, Mike Turner
Sacramento, CA represent!  Sorry, my GF's from there.  Anyway, Joe is yet another firefighter in the New Era, hence the comparables.  I expect Joe to be kept around for his strength pre-merge, but then once the merge hits, the target gets put on his back, and I can't see Joe being one to shed it.  I also can't see him going on a crazy immunity/idol run.  He may be a fan favorite (possibly Facebook's favorite), but winning this game, Joe likely is not.  As I state perhaps a few times, I think Purple will be a disaster tribe yet again, so Joe has a 50/50 shot at being one of the pre-merge boots, roughly.  
Predicted finish: 13th-8th
WRONG, 3rd.  And oddly, it looked like he was going to win going into the Finale, so he should've been even further away from my prediction.

Justin Pioppi, 29, Pizzeria Manager from Winthrop, MA
Comparables: Cody Assenmacher, Kyle Ostwald
Justin will likely be at least somewhat of a fan favorite.  But will he be a favorite amongst the castaways?  Maybe not as much.  He's not only worked but managed in the service industry so he knows how to handle tense situations.  I'm sure he's had to calm down an angry customer or two.  I'd be surprised if he was an early boot.  In fact, I think Justin will blend into the background well enough to sneak on by to near the end.  But will he get there?  We'll just have to wait and see.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 16th.  Guess I'm surprised that he's an early boot.  But you put him on Civa or Lagi, and it's a different story.  

Kamilla Karthigesu, 31, Software Engineer from Foster City, CA
Comparables: Jem Hussain-Adams, Swati Goel
I hate to say it, but since Natalie Anderson, women of South Asian descent do not typically do well on Survivor.  I don't see it changing with Kamilla.  She may surprise me and get fairly far due to tribe strength and/or a strong alliance, but I'd be surprised to see her in the finale.  She seems funny, but also easily irritated.  Almost like a Venus from 46.  
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
WRONG, 4th.  Our fire-making casualty.  She did end up surprising me and got fairly far due to a strong tribe/alliance.  And she did make the finale.  Wow, wrong again.

Kevin Leung, 34, Finance Manager from Livermore, CA
Comparables: Austin Li Coon, Owen Knight
Yet another Asian male oozing with charisma.  I gotta say, I have a good feeling about this one.  For one, he was the most memorable castaway from the 48 promo that aired at the end of 47.  He seems like a guy no one hates.  Like the kind of guy who hears you're going on vacation and offers to water your plants and pick up your mail for you.  That's why Kevin is in huge consideration to be my winner pick for 48.  Something seriously must go wrong if Kevin is an early boot.  And he seems to me like a player a lot of others will gravitate towards.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
WRONG, 17th.  My goodness how wrong I was.  

Kyle Fraser, 31, Attorney from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Rome Cooney, Nick Brown
Fortunately for Kyle, the similarities to Rome are just physical.  But he personality-wise reminds me more of Nick Brown, another African-American male in the field of law.  Kyle seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and as an attorney, he should be willing to be ruthless if need be.  However, when it comes down to it, can I see him winning a jury vote?  I can't say I can.  He seems too bland and not charming enough.  Possible losing finalist?  
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 1st.  Dude... I was so close!  And honestly... a person with a better FTC performance relegates Kyle to runner up, which is where I had him.  Dag nabbit.

Mary Zheng, 31, Substance Abuse Counselor from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Lucy Huang, Carolyn Wiger
I chose Carolyn since they are in the same profession, if that wasn't obvious.  It's hard to pinpoint Mary.  I see her as another high-variance player.  It really depends on if she's on the outs early or if she joins a majority alliance.  I think she joins a majority alliance.  I could see her joining a group with Kevin, Stephanie, and/or Sai.  Really anyone on her tribe.  I think she becomes a mid-merge boot if I had to guess.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th
CORRECT, 7th.  She didn't ever join a majority alliance, not for good, anyway.  But she was a mid-merge boot (at least towards the end of the mid-merge boots).

Mitch Guerra, 34, PE Coach from Waco, TX
Comparables: Sean Edwards, Sol Yi
Fortunately for Mitch, I don't see him essentially quitting like Sean did.  That wouldn't be a good message for the students in his PE Class.  Although Sean is a principal... Anyway, I see him being on the outs early, like Sol.  Fortunately for Sol, he was able to navigate to the merge but not much further.  I'm going to say Mitch might not even make the merge.  Orange is usually a pretty strong tribe, but I could see Mitch being on the outs or being unlucky.  He seems like the kind of guy that has a smile on his face even when backstabbed and blindsided.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
WRONG, 5th.  He was in good spirits despite being the presumptive boot.  He did make the merge and was fairly lucky in the game.

Saiounia "Sai" Hughley, 30, Marketing Professional from Simi Valley, CA
Comparables: Soda Thompson, Sabiyah Broderick
Yet another "S" African-American female, and I think Sai will have around the same placements as Soda or Sabiyah.  Somewhere between late pre-merge to early merge.  She just seems like she'll come off in a similar way.  I can't see her pulling a Maryanne like she wants to.  
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
CORRECT, 12th.  And she did place near Soda (who was 11th).  She survived longer than I thought she would after seeing the first few episodes, though!

Shauhin Davari, 38, Debate Professor from Costa Mesa, CA
Comparables: Randen Montalvo, Ronnie Bardah
I'm going out on a huge limb here, preparing to be wrong.  But I think Shauhin will flame out early.  I don't know if it's the overconfidence or the beard or perhaps being on the disaster tribe (or all of the above), but I think Shauhin's not long for the game like his comparables weren't.  Again, I could be so incredibly wrong, but my gut is saying that his tribe makes the merge with at most 3 people.  Both Tika and Yanu were purple tribes who made the merge with only 3.  But they each contained the winner of the season.  But that is not Shauhin.  He's more Bhanu than Yam-Yam.  *Quick note, I wanted to add this was TheMeranianReview's winner pick (Check him out on YouTube), so one of us is likely going to be very wrong.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
WRONG, 6th.  I was incredibly wrong.  Shauhin had winner potential.  He was more Yam-Yam than Bhanu, and I was wrong.  TheMeranianReview was more on track, but his winner pick didn't win, either.

Star Toomey, 28, Sales Expert from Augusta, GA
Comparables: Tiffany Ervin, Katurah Topps
Star is a kooky one, I'll give her that.  She's on my disaster tribe pick, so the question is, does she survive it.  And I'm gonna say yes.  Black females tend to survive them.  Shan and Tiffany both survived them.  I think Star will.  And the good news is those that survive disaster tribes tend to make it far.  How far?  Time will tell.  What I didn't particularly like was that Star said she's an introvert and really shy.  That doesn't bode well for a game as social as Survivor.  But I think that'll help her fly under the radar.  Just a hunch.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 8th.  SOO close!  Her being an introvert made her not get screen time, but she really became an interesting character post-merge.  Dang, just needed her to survive one more vote!

Stephanie Berger, 38, Tech Product Lead from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Molly Byman, Lindsay Dolashewich
I wonder if Stephanie will lie about her age to try to fit in better.  She certainly looks like she could pass for younger, unlike a particular 59-year-old last season.  Anyway, Stephanie looks affable and has been in both business and teaching professions, so I think she'll be able to find a majority to fit in, perhaps with Mary, Kevin, and Sai.  However, I lose confidence in her with the merge.  She doesn't seem ruthless enough.  But she is saying a lot of the right things.  
Predicted finish: 11th-6th
WRONG, 18th.  It didn't help she was put on one of the worst tribes ever.

Thomas Krottinger, 34, Music Executive from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: Jon Lovett, Mike White
Ah, the successful white male who has no shot of winning.  Well, he should be a good narrator at least, for as long as he lasts.  So the question is: Is he more Jon Lovett or Mike White?  When I look at the tribes and see he's on my pick for the disaster tribe, it's obvious that Thomas is more likely to be Jon Lovett 2.0.  I could see him as a losing finalist a 'la Mike White if he's able to survive the pre-merge.  But that's a big "if" in the New Era.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 15th.  Although, he was a better player than I thought, and he was screwed over by a swap. 

All right, now a boot order, based on where I predicted them to finish:

18th: Thomas
17th: Shauhin
16th: Bianca
15th: Cedrek
14th: Sai
13th: Mitch
12th: Joe
11th: Kamilla
10th: Eva
9th: David
8th: Mary
7th: Charity
6th: Stephanie
5th: Justin
4th: Star
3rd: Chrissy
2nd: Kyle
1st: Kevin

My winner pick for Survivor 48 is Kevin!  Crazy how he is the first "Kevin" to ever play Survivor.  And I think it's a good sign.  I think perhaps Kevin and Kyle form a tight duo post-merge, bring in Chrissy, and run the table.  So far, my winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 16th, 1st, and 16th.  Let's hope I didn't pick another 16th placer.

I have placed actual winners of the season 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), 18th (Gabler), 3rd (Yam-Yam), 9th (Dee), 1st (Kenzie), and 18th (Rachel).  Either I rank them very high or I've ranked them last.  So, Thomas, you have a shot!

I will update this after each week under each player that gets voted out, saying if I was right or wrong in their placement range.  Any updates will be in BOLD.  Hoping to improve upon the paltry 6/18 I got last season.  Let's hope for half right again, at least.

TOTAL CORRECT: 6/18

Again, I get 6/18 placements correct.  Dang.  I used to be good at this!  I almost had the winner pick nailed in Kyle, at least.  It continues the streak of me ranking the eventual winner of the season either very high or very low, no in-between.  I was wrong about Kyle's ally being Chrissy, but instead it was Kamilla.  Should've had them switched.  Oh well.  Let's hope I can get back to close to half right next season.

Survivor 44 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 44 is just around the corner, and just like I did for Survivor 43, I'm going to go through each of the cast and predict where I think they'll land.  As before, I'll give a range of each player on where I expect them to finish.  Hopefully, I do better than the 33% (6/18) I did last season.  And yet again, I'll make a winner pick.  You'll have to wait and see at the end.  And now, here are the players, alphabetically by first name:

Brandon Cottom, 30, Security Specialist from Newtown, PA
Comparables: Danny McCray, Ryan Medrano
I do actually remember Brandon playing for the Seahawks, my favorite team.  Unfortunately, it was only in the preseason, as he never made a final 53-man roster.  I think he'll have a game similar to Danny and/or Ryan, where he gets fairly far, but not the end.  He'll be my favorite and the one I'm rooting for most, so I hope he wins.  But I just can't see it.
Predicted Finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 10th.  Damnit!  Couldn't you have survived one more vote, Brandon?

Bruce Perrault, 46, Insurance Agent from Warwick, RI
Comparables: Eric Abraham, Rocksroy Bailey
I genuinely feel like the best Bruce can do in this game is about Rocksroy's spot, getting eliminated shortly after the merge.  But I think it's more likely he's an early boot, like Eric Abraham.  Also, *SPOILER ALERT*, there's a strong likelihood that Bruce is the one down shown in the preview for 44, and this likely is the first challenge.  Bruce could be a medevac here, and yes, that did factor into my placement for him.
Predicted Finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 18th.  Although I did know that was him being attended to at the challenge, I did not know for sure if he was medically evacuated from the game or not.

Carolyn Wiger, 35, Drug Abuse Counselor from Hugo, MN
Comparables: Lindsay Carmine, Heather Aldret
Carolyn is one of those women who will either be an early boot or get very far.  There's no in-between.  And it's so hard to tell.  Two things: She compared herself to Noura (yikes, but maybe it's good to be that self-aware?), and also she was featured in the promo at the 43 Finale.  So I think she's likely a losing finalist or loses at fire-making like Heather.
Predicted Finish: 7th-2nd
CORRECT, 3rd.  She was indeed a losing finalist!

Carson Garrett, 20, Aerospace Engineering Student from Atlanta, GA
Comparabes: Zach Wurtenberger, Christian Hubicki
Can Carson avoid being an early boot?  On pure appearances alone, I don't think so.  He's going to have a tall task trying to convince his tribe he's older than he is (or more mature than his age).  I think he's got a good head on his shoulders, but I cannot see him getting far.  He's like a younger Christian, which isn't necessarily a good thing.  Also, the next youngest on his starting tribe is 27, so it's going to be tough for him to form bonds.
Predicted Finish: 16th-11th
WRONG.  Carson has already gotten better than 11th.

Claire Rafson, 25, Tech Investor from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Chanelle Howell, Liana Wallace
I see Claire as more of a UTR Liana or a Chanelle that fits in better.  Well, she's got to try to do one of those two things to get far.  I could see it.  Can she accrue just enough agency to get votes at the end and win?  Time will tell.  I think she'll get targeted for being a jury threat in the mid-merge.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 15th.  Claire was robbed!  

Danny Massa, 32, Firefighter from Bronx, NY
Comparables: David Voce, Jonathan Young
Danny is a gym rat who will definitely help his tribe in challenges early on.  But like Voce and Jonathan, I don't see him having too much game acumen.  Like Jonathan, he may slip by just because the others will know he won't win a jury vote or because others might use him as a meat shield.  I can't see him being an early boot due to his kindness and strength.
Predicted Finish: 11th-6th
CORRECT, 7th.  He was more of a strategist and social player than I thought, but he did slip by because people had other targets.

Frannie Marin, 23, Research Coordinator from Cambridge, MA
Comparables: Kellyn Bechtold, Evvie Jagoda
Frannie, the youngest female, may have a story to tell if she gets to the final 3.  It's hard to see her getting there, but it is a possibility.  She's one of several that I feel could literally be anywhere from first boot to a finalist.  But as the youngest female, it's hard to see her winning.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
CORRECT, 8th.  I knew she'd be somewhere in the middle.  Too good socially (and surprisingly good at challenges) to vote out early.

Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt, 42, Engineering Manager from Pittsburgh, PA
Comparables: Marya Sherron, Tiffany Seely
Heidi is another woman in her 40s cast to fulfill an archetype.  Tiffany in 41 has done the best of this archetype so far in the new era, which isn't saying much.  So it's fairly safe to say Heidi could be a pre-merge boot.  Hey, some people have to be.
Predicted Finish: 17th-12th
WRONG.  Heidi has already gotten better than 12th.

Helen Li, 29, Product Manager from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Jeanine Zheng, Erika Casupanan
Unfortunately, Asian women in recent seasons have been targeted for being smart.  Helen will somehow have to lower her threat level at some point.  I could see her being a major player if she survives the pre-merge, which I'm going to guess she will.  But since people on this season have seen Season 41, she'll likely become a target since people may see her as the next Erika.
Predicted Finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 16th.  Helen was robbed!

Jaime Lynn Ruiz, 35, Yogi from Mesa, AZ
Comparables: Elie Scott, Noura Salman
My gut feeling is that Jaime will have a tough time finding her footing in this game and will not be included in the majority alliance/vote.  She has a chance to perhaps make big moves and get far, but I don't see it happening.  Her dual profession of yogi/Tiktoker makes me think she's going to possibly annoy people out there.  She seems like the kind of player others won't feel guilty about betraying.
Predicted Finish: 16th-11th
WRONG.  Jaime Lynn has already gotten better than 11th.

Dr. Joshua Wilder, 34, Podiatrist from Atlanta, GA
Comparables: Dr. Peter Baggenstos, Wendell Holland
I'd recommend Dr. Wilder keep his occupation a secret, as people will think he's too smart, rich, or both.  I think he'll do a good job ingratiating himself, but I see a blindside/downfall episode for him in the post-merge.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 12th.  Not off by too much.  He did try to keep his occupation a secret, though.

Kane Fritzler, 25, Law Student from Saskatoon, SK
Comparables: Daniel Strunk
I only included one comparable because if this guy wasn't cast to be Strunk 2.0, then I'm an alien from outer space.  Both are pale, semi-nerdy-looking lawyers with patchy facial hair and light brown hair.  Hopefully for Kane, he will do better than Daniel, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.  The best case is he makes the merge but gets left out of the majority early on.
Predicted Finish: 15th-10th
WRONG.  Kane has already gotten better than 10th.

Lauren Harpe, 31, Elementary School Teacher from Mount Belvieu, TX
Comparables: Shan Smith, Drea Wheeler
I'm getting Shan vibes from Lauren.  She might play a similar game.  I think she has a chance to play a much more UTR game and has a chance of getting fairly far.  She is the perfect age to play Survivor, after all.  She's a divorced elementary school teacher, so she likely can handle conflict and drama.  I'm here for a deep run for Lauren.
Predicted Finish: 6th-1st
CORRECT, 5th.  I was pretty spot on in my assessment of Lauren, playing a UTR game.

Maddy Pomilla, 28, Charity Projects Manager from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Natalia Azoqa, Molly Byman
Maddy is another that is so hard to pinpoint.  She looks friendly enough, but like Cassidy in 43, I can't see her winning if she gets to the end.  I think she'll either be voted out shortly before the finale or right at the merge.  I'll lean towards merge.  She also could be a losing finalist like Cassidy.
Predicted Finish: 13th-8th
WRONG, 17th.  She continues the "M" curse for women!  I should've seen this coming.

Matt Blankinship, 27, Security Software Engineer from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Hai Giang, Owen Knight
We oddly didn't have a picture of him when the cast was first leaked.  That was also true of Rocksroy, so it leads me to believe Matthew won't get terribly far, either.  He must not have been as important of a player in 44.  
Predicted Finish: 13th-8th
CORRECT, 11th.  Although he should've gotten farther if not for a dumb twist...

Matthew Grinstead-Mayle, 43, Barbershop Owner from Columbus, OH
Comparables: Ben Driebergen, Mike Gabler
Matthew was featured in the season preview slipping on some rock he was trying to climb, so I wonder how that fall affected him.  I'm gonna go on a limb and say he's supposed to be someone we're supposed to remember.  He'll get far, and that fall will either not be enough to take him out or will occur late in the game.
Predicted Finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 13th.  Although I'd bet he would've made it to at least 7th had he not been med-evac'ed from the game.  Huge shame.

Sarah Wade, 26, Management Consultant from Chicago, IL
Comparables: Sarah Wilson, Cassidy Clark
And yet another female that I cannot pinpoint.  My gut says she's a pre-merge boot, like Justine from 43 or Sarah from 41.  She's just got a forgettable face.  Sorry, Sarah!
Predicted Finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 14th.  Although she played a bit better than I thought she would...

Yamil "Yam-Yam" Arocho, 36, Salon Owner from San Juan, PR
Comparables: Naseer Muttalif, Ricard Foye
Yam Yam was also featured in the preview, and he was featured last (as in he'll be the one we remember most).  He's got to get far, right?  I debated putting him as my winner pick, considering how out of the box the winners have been in this new era.  Could he?
Predicted Finish: 6th-1st
CORRECT, 1st.  I was so close to picking the winner, too!  Damn, I knew I should've picked Yam-Yam!

All right, based on ALL of that, how would a boot order go based on their predicted finishes?

18th: Bruce Perrault
17th: Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt
16th: Sarah Wade
15th: Carson Garrett
14th: Jaime Lynn Ruiz
13th: Kane Fritzler
12th: Matt Blankinship
11th: Maddy Pomilla
10th: Danny Massa
9th: Frannie Marin
8th: Dr. Joshua Wilder
7th: Claire Rafson
6th: Brandon Cottom
5th: Helen Li
4th: Carolyn Wiger
3rd: Yamil "Yam Yam" Arocho
2nd: Matthew Grinstead-Mayle
1st: Lauren Harpe

Yep, Lauren is my winner pick for 44!  So far, my winner picks in the new era have placed 9th, 1st, and 4th.  Let's hope she doesn't pull a Lindsay Carmine and go from favorite to pre-merge boot.  I decided against Yam-Yam because typically, in Survivor history, people with accents have not done well at the final tribal council (See Tai Trang).  The only winner in Survivor history you could say had a foreign accent was Sandra, which her accent is slightly Puerto Rican, but still very intelligible.  But I will be rooting for Yam Yam along with Brandon and Jaime (Follow her on Tiktok).  Yam Yam would be the first Hispanic male to win if he could.  

As for actual winners, my pre-season placement for them was 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), and 18th (Gabler).  Well, at least if a woman wins, I'm pretty close.  Watch Bruce end up winning now.  

Well, not too bad!  I placed 8/18 (44%) right this time!  And I was soooo close to the winner pick.  Now the people that ended up winning, I placed them 3rd, 1st, 18th, and 3rd again.  And my winner picks have finished 9th, 1st, 4th, and 5th.  This season, I most overestimated Matthew (left with injury, not my fault) and Helen.  I most underestimated Heidi, who went from 2nd boot (my prediction) to 2nd place.  Also Carson, who I thought would be more of a Zach Wurtenberger than a Sami or Xander.

Survivor 43 Preview and Predictions

I blogged about Survivor's 41 and 42 on another platform, and I thought I'd go here for Survivor 43.  The cast has now been fully revealed, and I definitely have some opinions on them.  I'm going to go through each of the Survivors, picking a range of placement that I think they will fall in.  I'll even provide a few comparables of Survivors I think they'll be like.  I'll come back throughout the season and update each castaway as they're voted out and see if they fell in the range or not.

I will also make a winner pick.  My winner pick for 41 was Evie (eh) and my winner pick for 42 was Maryanne (Spot on!).  So I'm 1 for 2 so far.  

Cassidy Clark, 26, Designer from Austin, TX
Comparables: Sydney Segal, Tori Meehan
Cassidy seems to be another one of those pretty white girls that'll finish around the time of the merge.  Or she could be an early boot if she doesn't integrate herself on her tribe well early.  But I'll lean towards the former.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
WRONG, 2nd
Yikes, I severely underestimated Cassidy, as I'm sure many others did.

Cody Assenmacher, 35, Elevator Salesman from Honolulu, HI
Comparables: Aaron Meredith, Jay Starlett
Cody's definitely got a big personality, and that'll either work for or against him.  I don't see him targeted too soon unless he does something dumb, which I must admit, is a legit possibility.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th
CORRECT, 6th
I did not see him being as good of a player as he was, but he was taken out before the end, which I predicted.

Dwight Moore, 22, Graduate Student from Collierville, TN
Comparables: Jacob Derwin, Jairus Robinson
I'm getting early boot vibes from him, hence the above comparables.  I think he's going to have a tough time forming bonds, and if his tribe struggles at all, he could be a goner.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 12th
He did slightly better than I thought he would.  

Elie Scott, 31, Clinical Psychologist from Salt Lake, UT
Comparables: Aubrey Bracco, Angelina Keely
Elie might not want to reveal her occupation as to not seem threatening.  I think she could make it far.  But winning?  That's another story.  Not sure if she seems like the type that can build up enough of a resumé.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 13th
I did not see Elie overplaying and putting herself out there that much.  I thought she'd be a bit sneakier.

Geo Bustamante, 35, Project Manager from Honolulu, HI
Comparables: Romeo Escobar, Joe Mena
Those comparables are quite different, but I think Geo's going to be like a bit of each of them.  He's going to let others make moves like Romeo but be a bit loud like Joe.  Not the best combination.  
Predicted finish: 13th-8th
WRONG, 14th
I was right in that he wasn't going to be the best player, but I actually gave him slightly too much credit.

James Jones, 37, Event Planner from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Rocksroy Bailey, Deshawn Radden
I think James will be a combination of Rocks and Deshawn.  His age is closer to Rocksroy, but I think he's going to ingratiate himself better like Deshawn.  But how will that means he fares?  Probably somewhere in between those two.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 10th
James was in a good spot but should've played a bit quieter early on.  He was seen running the show with Karla when he should've been seen as her right hand man.

Jeanine Zheng, 24, UX Designer from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Jenny Kim, So Kim
I don't see production/editing wanting us to get too close to her.  Too often, women of Asian descent have gotten an early boot and been screwed over by their tribe.  I could be totally wrong.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
WRONG, 11th
Another one I didn't miss by too much on.  I definitely underestimated her.  I had her and Morriah swapped in terms of how well they did.

Jesse Lopez, 30, Political Science PHD student from Durham, NC
Comparables: Tony Vlachos, Wardog DaSilva
This is my winner pick for 43.  I just have a good feeling about him.  We have never had a Hispanic man win Survivor.  Time for that to change.  As for his comparables, I see him being like Tony but quieter, and like Wardog perhaps in challenges but also with scheming.  
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
CORRECT, 4th
And he would have won if he could've made fire even quicker than Gabler.

Justine Brennan, 29, Cyber Security Saleswoman from Marina Del Ray, CA
Comparables: Stephanie Gonzalez, Alexis Maxwell
Justine is one that is hard to place.  She could be a very early boot or a mid-merge boot.  I think the latter, she seems to have a decent head on her shoulders.  
Predicted finish: 11th-6th
WRONG, 17th
I did say she could be a very early boot.  But then I said she could be a mid-merge boot and went with that.  Oops.

Karla Cruz Godoy, 28, Educational Project Manager from Newark, DE
Comparables: Lydia Meredith, Genie Chen
Karla is another LGBTQ player, and we haven't really had one that's done particularly well recently, including Evie (41) and Elaine (IotI).  She could buck the trend, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
WRONG, 5th
I underestimated Karla.  She was great player.  And she did buck the trend.

Lindsay Carmine, 42, Pediatric Nurse from Downington, PA
Comparables: Heather Aldret, Chrissy Hofbeck
Let's hope for Lindsay's sake she doesn't get purpled like Heather did.  I could potentially see her as a losing finalist like Chrissy, but no better.  She'll likely not be a threat to anyone, so if she can survive the pre-merge, she can make it far.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 15th
And she could not survive the pre-merge due to being too paranoid.  I think most Survivor fans had her getting at least somewhat far.

Mike Gabler, 52, Heart Valve Specialist from Meridian, ID
Comparables: Brad Reese, Chicken Morris
Guys like Mike don't tend to last very long, but we saw another "Mike" get all the way to 2nd place last season.  I think that was a bucking of the trend, and I don't think this Mike will last particularly long.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
WRONG, 1st
I could not have been more wrong.  Give it up for the old dudes!  If they can make the merge, nobody considers them threats.  And Gabler did enough at the end to win.

Morriah Young, 28, Teacher from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Chanelle Howell, Lyrsa Torres
Shoutout to Morriah for possibly being the player that I slowly start to think is attractive, like I did with Chanelle.  She seems colorful like Lyrsa, so we'll see how that affects her game.  I think she's around a mid-merge boot.
Predicted finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 18th
Well, I couldn't start developing an attraction because she was the first boot.  Like I said, I had Jeanine and her swapped.

Nneka Ejere, 43, Pharmacist from Weatherford, TX
Comparables: Francesca Hogie, Michaela Bradshaw
Not sure how she'll handle challenges, but if she's at all a liability and her tribe struggles, she won't get to the merge.  It's hard to say with her, but I can't see her getting extremely far.
Predicted finish: 15th-10th
WRONG, 16th
So close, but I give myself a range of 6 spots, so a miss is a miss.  If only Vesi could've done better in challenges early on.  She wasn't in a bad spot.

Noelle Lambert, 25, Paralympian from Manchester, NH
Comparables: Kelly Bruno, Elizabeth Beisel
We've never had a paraplegic get that far on Survivor, but could Noelle be the first?  Kelly Bruno was an early-ish boot, and Chad from Vanuatu was a boot soon after the merge.  We'll see.  She seems cheerful, which could both work for and against her.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th
CORRECT, 8th
Got her right in the middle of my range.  But her disability had little to do with her boot.

Owen Knight, 29, College Admissions Director from New Orelans, LA
Comparables: Woo Hwang, Jonas Otsuji
Owen apparently has applied many times and finally got on.  He also seems to have the support of many past players.  This tells me he will be a fan favorite and do fairly well.  Winning though?  Eh, maybe, but I already predicted Jesse to win.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
CORRECT, 3rd
I did see Owen as a potential losing finalist, so I got that right.  

Ryan Medrano, 24, Warehouse Associate from El Paso, TX
Comparables: Jonathan Young, Danny McCray
Ryan will likely be a physical force and carry his tribe in challenges.  Not as much as Jonathan, but I think even more than Danny.  How will his strategic game play out though?  Hard to say.  Can't see him getting extremely far, though.
Predicted finish: 9th-4th
CORRECT, 9th
I almost gave him too much credit.  He definitely played a game I was expecting, although I thought he'd be slightly more game savvy.

Sami Layadi, 19, Pet Cremator from Las Vegas, NV
Comparables: David Voce, Zach Wurtenberger
Teenagers have not done particularly well in Survivor's history.  They're just too young to adapt.  Sami reminds me of a younger Voce, who himself was an early boot.  If Sami gets really far, I'll be shocked.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
WRONG, 7th
I completely underestimated Sami.  If you can hide your age and play like a 20-year-old, you can get fairly far.

All right, now with those boot ranges, let's put together a boot order that fits everyone's range:

18th: Mike Gabler
17th: Jeanine Zheng
16th: Sami Layadi
15th: Dwight Moore
14th: Nneka Ejere
13th: Carla Cruz Godoy
12th: Geo Bustamante
11th: Cassidy Clark
10th: Justine Brennan
9th: Noelle Lambert
8th: Cody Assenmacher
7th: Morriah Young
6th: Ryan Medrano
5th: James Jones
4th: Owen Knight
3rd: Lindsay Carmine
2nd: Elie Scott
1st: Jesse Lopez

There you have it.  My predicted winner is Jesse.  My backups are Owen and Elie.  Should be a pretty fun season!  Again, I'll come back to this after every episode and update each contestant after they're voted out to see if they fell into my range or not.  I'm generally pretty good at that (right about 60-70% of the time).

Well, I predicted pretty badly for this season.  I only had 6/18 (33%) in their correct range.  Yikes.  Hopefully, I can do better for 44.  

Seattle Mariners in 2020 - Youth Movement Underway

The Seattle Mariners are in the process of a rebuild.  There's no getting around it.  That's what it is.  They are not expected to contend this year, and even asking for a playoff run next year may be too early.  But the youth movement is here and it is also the future.  Gone are Cano, Cruz, and now Felix Hernandez.  Seager and Gordon are close to gone.  Haniger could join them.

The 2020 season is for the young guys.  We get to see Evan White at first base.  Barring injury or significant struggles (knock on wood), we get to see full seasons from Shed Long, J.P. Crawford, Kyle Lewis, and Jake Fraley.  The 2020 Mariners won't make the playoffs (barring a miracle), but they will be interesting and worth a watch.  I'm certainly going to want to say that I watched the start of these young men's careers.  Hopefully they'll be leading our team to the playoffs in a few years.

I'm going to go over what I expect from each notable player, including the veterans.  Team success isn't quite as important as seeing progress in certain individuals; namely, the youngsters mentioned above.  At the end I'll assign them a tier number.  These tiers are in reference to their careers as a Mariner from 2020 onwards, so if they already had their success, they might have a surprisingly low tier.  Those tiers are:

- Tier 1: I predict them to be a future star with us.  I'd be surprised if they never made an All-Star team for us.  Might not be quite as iconic as Felix or Ichiro, but will become one of the faces of the franchise.

- Tier 2: They'll be a serviceable starter, maybe borderline All-Star.  We've had guys like Jose Lopez, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, and Daniel Vogelbach make the All-Star team just once and anyone in this tier will be like them.  Although Vogelbach only had a good half-season.

- Tier 3: They'll have a good season for us or two, but that's it.  Nothing all-star worthy.

- Tier 4: They really don't have much to give us and/or they'll be gone by the end of the season.

Catcher
Tom Murphy - With Murphy's emergence as the starting catcher, Omar Narvaez became expendable.  Murph will get the bulk of starts behind the dish in 2020.  He's not our future at catcher, but he's our starting catcher until Cal Raleigh is ready.  Interestingly, Murph is the only pure catcher on the 40 man roster, as Nola is listed as an infielder.  I expect Murph to have a similar 2020 as he did 2019, and hopefully he does not drop off (at least not significantly).  I'll give him a Tier 3 because I don't expect Murph to be our catcher in two years.

Austin Nola - I'm excited to see him catch more in 2020.  He may be used as a super utility player in 2020, going from catcher to first to third and maybe outfield.  Nola burst onto the scene in 2019, but he faded down the stretch.  Hopefully he can have a more consistent 2020 season.  If he rakes, Servais will find a spot for him in the lineup.  If he continues to do fairly well, which I hope, I'll give him a Tier 2.  I think he has potential to be our All-Star representative this season.  He's got to get starts somewhere, though.

First Base/DH
Evan White - I'm more excited to see this kid play defense than I am to see him hit.  His defense is constantly raved about, so I bet we'll see a sparkling play from him or two.  He doesn't need to absolutely light it up with his bat in 2020, but get at least some timely hits and show some pop.  I see him as a Tier 2.  I don't see a ton of star power in Evan.  I could see him being the next Eric Hosmer.

Daniel Vogelbach - He just completely fell apart last year.  After the All-Star break, he couldn't buy a hit, and our lone "All Star" ended up hitting .208 for the year.  He needs to have a more consistent 2020 for sure.  I do not see him as a regular in our lineup around the end of the season.  If he struggles, he'll get cut.  If he has success, he could get traded because he's turning 28 later this year and could be dealt for a prospect to a team needed a left-handed bat.  But I am very concerned for Vogey; his fall-off last year is concerning, so I while I'd like to give him a Tier 3, I am leaning more towards Tier 4.  If he doesn't get off to a decent start, we won't have the patience for him, and we could see Nola take a few of his starts.

Second Base
Shed Long - Apparently Shed will be given the bulk of the opportunities at second base over veteran Dee Gordon.  Shed showed some flashes last year with a surprising amount of pop in his 5'8" frame.  He needs to get better defensively, however.  He struggled mightily early on last year with his glove.  I'll give Shed a Tier 2.  Like Evan White, has some good qualities but lacks star power.

Dee Gordon - Dee is in a weird spot.  He's sort of going to be used as a utility man, spelling Shed and JP and maybe even playing outfield.  He'll also, I'm sure, be used as a pinch-runner.  But more than likely, Jerry Dipoto will find a suitor for Dee who will want to use his glove, legs, and contact ability.  I don't expect Dee to make it past the trade deadline, therefore I won't guess at his stats.  I expect Dee gone soon, so he gets a Tier 4.

Shorstop
J.P. Crawford - J.P. would have to really struggle to lose his job.  He did start off last season great, but finished kind of slowly (but so did most of the youngsters).  I'm sure we'll see quite a few more sparkling defensive plays this year from J.P. as he makes a name for himself in baseball.  I just hope he's able to hit for a fairly high average and stay at the top of the lineup.  I am torn between tiers 1 and 2 for J.P., but because of his defense I will give him a Tier 1.  If he turns out anything like Francisco Lindor, I'll be a very happy man.

Third Base
Kyle Seager - Seags is in a weird spot.  We can't really trade him because he has a poison pill in his contract; basically the option in his contract gets converted to another year automatically if he gets traded, and he is making way more than what he's worth at the moment.  He's the longest tenured Mariner now, and it'll be interesting to see how much the Mariners front office wants him to play.  They'll want him to play to hopefully increase his trade value.  But with how much he has put into this organization, I could see him staying for a while to also help mentor the younger players on both hitting and defense.  I'll give Seags a Tier 3.  

Outfield
Mitch Haniger - Unfortunately Mitch survived another set-back and will miss spring training and probably the start of the season.  You might think he's a bit injury-prone.  It's unfortunate; his career got off to such a great start with us.  Kyle Seager suffered a set-back at the start of last year, so hopefully Mitch has a similar hot streak to Seager's in him.  He could be trade bait if that happens.  Mitch literally could be any of the tiers, depending on how well he bounces back and if we trade him.  I'll go with Tier 3, because we have a lot of outfield talent in our system, and he is injury-prone.

Mallex Smith - I'd prefer him as a 4th outfielder and speed off the bench, but what can you do.  He'll probably share time in center with Jake Fraley, Haniger, and maybe even Dee.  I just wish he hit a bit more consistently.  He could be a potential trade piece if a team needs to replace an injured center-fielder or they need speed on the bench.  I'm going with Tier 4 because I expect Mallex to either be benched or traded.

Kyle Lewis - Hard to get off to a better start than Kyle did at the end of last season.  It was awesome to watch.  Can he carry that over to 2020?  Remember, Dustin Ackley got off to a really good start too, and we all remember how that turned out.  He's got potential to be a 5 tool player.  I am going to give him a Tier 1 because I feel optimistic when it comes to Kyle's chances.  He's been in our system a while and he finally gets his first full season to prove himself.  And I could see him like an Adam Jones type player.

Jake Fraley - I was not too impressed with Fraley last year.  In 40 AB's last year he hit .150 and did not get a home run.  He's surprisingly good defensively, but I worry about his bat.  He could surprise me this year and go on a tear, but I just don't feel like that will happen.  He didn't look wholely comfortable at the plate last year.  I know, that could change.  I'm going to give him a Tier 3.  I could see us trading him in a year or two, especially if Kelenic or Rodriguez come up and go on a tear.

Every other position player: I don't see anyone else having a lengthy or impactful career with the Mariners.  Dylan Moore, Tim Lopes, Patrick Wisdom, and Braden Bishop will battle it out for the remaining spots.  Haniger will probably start the season on the DL, so that opens a spot for someone, probably Bishop.  Usually, teams carry 12 or 13 position players, so there's not a ton of room for other players.  Wisdom is the newbie so I'll be most interested to see how he does.

Starting Pitchers
Marco Gonzalez - Marco is our presumed opening day starter since he was last year.  He just got a nice new contract as well, which I was happy to see.  Marco is a great guy to lead this pitching staff until we get some of the youngsters up, and then hopefully be able to pass on some knowledge to them.  I'll give Marco a Tier 2, only because I don't see Marco becoming a true bona fide #1 starter.  He could make one All-Star team as our lone representative.

Yusei Kikuchi - Yusei certainly had some moments in 2019, most notably in Cleveland and New York.  Otherwise, he mostly struggled.  He will need to make significant improvements in 2020, otherwise he won't be with us long.  He'll be given plenty of chances because A) We don't have too many starting pitching options and B) We're not expected to make the playoffs.  Unless Yusei makes a big jump this year, I give him Tier 3. 

Justus Sheffield - Justus didn't really impress me last year, but it was his first significant big league action.  He, along with Kikuchi, will need to make an improvement in 2020.  I give Justus a better chance due to his age.  I really hope he can become at least a serviceable starter, because when we acquired him in the James Paxton trade, he was supposed to be a legit frontline starter.  I'll give him a Tier 2, but I feel like I'm being optimistic with that.

Kendall Graveman - I really only know him by name, but I see he struggled a bit with the A's and then underwent Tommy John surgery.  He could either surprise us or cost us multiple games.  Even if Graveman struggles, Servais will probably be forced to stick with him due to lack of options.  I'm giving Graveman a Tier 4 based on recent history.

Justin Dunn - Dunn showed flashes last year in very limited time.  I honestly see him as more of a reliever than a starter, but maybe that's just me.  I like Dunn, he seems like he'll work hard and compete his butt off, but how well will he really do?  Time will tell.  I will give him a Tier 3, hoping to be proven wrong.

Bullpen: Much like with the bench, I'm not going to go over the bullpen individually.  I think our bullpen is going to see a huge amount of turnover the next few seasons until we find guys that stick.  I like Magill and Tuivailala.  We also brought in Carl Edwards Jr. and Yoshihisa Hirano, so it will be fun to see how those guys do.  There's also Erik Swanson, Brandon Brennan, and Dan Altavilla, who all pitched for us last year, but I don't really like any of them that much. 


It's odd how excited I am for this upcoming season.  I know at times it won't be pretty, but to see young players develop is fun to watch.  This season will remind me of the 2011 Seahawks, who had a lot of bright, young stars but not a lot of experience.  They were still really fun to watch, however. 

I'll predict a record of 69-93.  It's not great, but it's not awful, either.  I think there will be just enough talent to avoid 100 or even 95 losses.