Survivor 44 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 44 is just around the corner, and just like I did for Survivor 43, I'm going to go through each of the cast and predict where I think they'll land.  As before, I'll give a range of each player on where I expect them to finish.  Hopefully, I do better than the 33% (6/18) I did last season.  And yet again, I'll make a winner pick.  You'll have to wait and see at the end.  And now, here are the players, alphabetically by first name:

Brandon Cottom, 30, Security Specialist from Newtown, PA
Comparables: Danny McCray, Ryan Medrano
I do actually remember Brandon playing for the Seahawks, my favorite team.  Unfortunately, it was only in the preseason, as he never made a final 53-man roster.  I think he'll have a game similar to Danny and/or Ryan, where he gets fairly far, but not the end.  He'll be my favorite and the one I'm rooting for most, so I hope he wins.  But I just can't see it.
Predicted Finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 10th.  Damnit!  Couldn't you have survived one more vote, Brandon?

Bruce Perrault, 46, Insurance Agent from Warwick, RI
Comparables: Eric Abraham, Rocksroy Bailey
I genuinely feel like the best Bruce can do in this game is about Rocksroy's spot, getting eliminated shortly after the merge.  But I think it's more likely he's an early boot, like Eric Abraham.  Also, *SPOILER ALERT*, there's a strong likelihood that Bruce is the one down shown in the preview for 44, and this likely is the first challenge.  Bruce could be a medevac here, and yes, that did factor into my placement for him.
Predicted Finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 18th.  Although I did know that was him being attended to at the challenge, I did not know for sure if he was medically evacuated from the game or not.

Carolyn Wiger, 35, Drug Abuse Counselor from Hugo, MN
Comparables: Lindsay Carmine, Heather Aldret
Carolyn is one of those women who will either be an early boot or get very far.  There's no in-between.  And it's so hard to tell.  Two things: She compared herself to Noura (yikes, but maybe it's good to be that self-aware?), and also she was featured in the promo at the 43 Finale.  So I think she's likely a losing finalist or loses at fire-making like Heather.
Predicted Finish: 7th-2nd
CORRECT, 3rd.  She was indeed a losing finalist!

Carson Garrett, 20, Aerospace Engineering Student from Atlanta, GA
Comparabes: Zach Wurtenberger, Christian Hubicki
Can Carson avoid being an early boot?  On pure appearances alone, I don't think so.  He's going to have a tall task trying to convince his tribe he's older than he is (or more mature than his age).  I think he's got a good head on his shoulders, but I cannot see him getting far.  He's like a younger Christian, which isn't necessarily a good thing.  Also, the next youngest on his starting tribe is 27, so it's going to be tough for him to form bonds.
Predicted Finish: 16th-11th
WRONG.  Carson has already gotten better than 11th.

Claire Rafson, 25, Tech Investor from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Chanelle Howell, Liana Wallace
I see Claire as more of a UTR Liana or a Chanelle that fits in better.  Well, she's got to try to do one of those two things to get far.  I could see it.  Can she accrue just enough agency to get votes at the end and win?  Time will tell.  I think she'll get targeted for being a jury threat in the mid-merge.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 15th.  Claire was robbed!  

Danny Massa, 32, Firefighter from Bronx, NY
Comparables: David Voce, Jonathan Young
Danny is a gym rat who will definitely help his tribe in challenges early on.  But like Voce and Jonathan, I don't see him having too much game acumen.  Like Jonathan, he may slip by just because the others will know he won't win a jury vote or because others might use him as a meat shield.  I can't see him being an early boot due to his kindness and strength.
Predicted Finish: 11th-6th
CORRECT, 7th.  He was more of a strategist and social player than I thought, but he did slip by because people had other targets.

Frannie Marin, 23, Research Coordinator from Cambridge, MA
Comparables: Kellyn Bechtold, Evvie Jagoda
Frannie, the youngest female, may have a story to tell if she gets to the final 3.  It's hard to see her getting there, but it is a possibility.  She's one of several that I feel could literally be anywhere from first boot to a finalist.  But as the youngest female, it's hard to see her winning.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
CORRECT, 8th.  I knew she'd be somewhere in the middle.  Too good socially (and surprisingly good at challenges) to vote out early.

Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt, 42, Engineering Manager from Pittsburgh, PA
Comparables: Marya Sherron, Tiffany Seely
Heidi is another woman in her 40s cast to fulfill an archetype.  Tiffany in 41 has done the best of this archetype so far in the new era, which isn't saying much.  So it's fairly safe to say Heidi could be a pre-merge boot.  Hey, some people have to be.
Predicted Finish: 17th-12th
WRONG.  Heidi has already gotten better than 12th.

Helen Li, 29, Product Manager from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Jeanine Zheng, Erika Casupanan
Unfortunately, Asian women in recent seasons have been targeted for being smart.  Helen will somehow have to lower her threat level at some point.  I could see her being a major player if she survives the pre-merge, which I'm going to guess she will.  But since people on this season have seen Season 41, she'll likely become a target since people may see her as the next Erika.
Predicted Finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 16th.  Helen was robbed!

Jaime Lynn Ruiz, 35, Yogi from Mesa, AZ
Comparables: Elie Scott, Noura Salman
My gut feeling is that Jaime will have a tough time finding her footing in this game and will not be included in the majority alliance/vote.  She has a chance to perhaps make big moves and get far, but I don't see it happening.  Her dual profession of yogi/Tiktoker makes me think she's going to possibly annoy people out there.  She seems like the kind of player others won't feel guilty about betraying.
Predicted Finish: 16th-11th
WRONG.  Jaime Lynn has already gotten better than 11th.

Dr. Joshua Wilder, 34, Podiatrist from Atlanta, GA
Comparables: Dr. Peter Baggenstos, Wendell Holland
I'd recommend Dr. Wilder keep his occupation a secret, as people will think he's too smart, rich, or both.  I think he'll do a good job ingratiating himself, but I see a blindside/downfall episode for him in the post-merge.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 12th.  Not off by too much.  He did try to keep his occupation a secret, though.

Kane Fritzler, 25, Law Student from Saskatoon, SK
Comparables: Daniel Strunk
I only included one comparable because if this guy wasn't cast to be Strunk 2.0, then I'm an alien from outer space.  Both are pale, semi-nerdy-looking lawyers with patchy facial hair and light brown hair.  Hopefully for Kane, he will do better than Daniel, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.  The best case is he makes the merge but gets left out of the majority early on.
Predicted Finish: 15th-10th
WRONG.  Kane has already gotten better than 10th.

Lauren Harpe, 31, Elementary School Teacher from Mount Belvieu, TX
Comparables: Shan Smith, Drea Wheeler
I'm getting Shan vibes from Lauren.  She might play a similar game.  I think she has a chance to play a much more UTR game and has a chance of getting fairly far.  She is the perfect age to play Survivor, after all.  She's a divorced elementary school teacher, so she likely can handle conflict and drama.  I'm here for a deep run for Lauren.
Predicted Finish: 6th-1st
CORRECT, 5th.  I was pretty spot on in my assessment of Lauren, playing a UTR game.

Maddy Pomilla, 28, Charity Projects Manager from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Natalia Azoqa, Molly Byman
Maddy is another that is so hard to pinpoint.  She looks friendly enough, but like Cassidy in 43, I can't see her winning if she gets to the end.  I think she'll either be voted out shortly before the finale or right at the merge.  I'll lean towards merge.  She also could be a losing finalist like Cassidy.
Predicted Finish: 13th-8th
WRONG, 17th.  She continues the "M" curse for women!  I should've seen this coming.

Matt Blankinship, 27, Security Software Engineer from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Hai Giang, Owen Knight
We oddly didn't have a picture of him when the cast was first leaked.  That was also true of Rocksroy, so it leads me to believe Matthew won't get terribly far, either.  He must not have been as important of a player in 44.  
Predicted Finish: 13th-8th
CORRECT, 11th.  Although he should've gotten farther if not for a dumb twist...

Matthew Grinstead-Mayle, 43, Barbershop Owner from Columbus, OH
Comparables: Ben Driebergen, Mike Gabler
Matthew was featured in the season preview slipping on some rock he was trying to climb, so I wonder how that fall affected him.  I'm gonna go on a limb and say he's supposed to be someone we're supposed to remember.  He'll get far, and that fall will either not be enough to take him out or will occur late in the game.
Predicted Finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 13th.  Although I'd bet he would've made it to at least 7th had he not been med-evac'ed from the game.  Huge shame.

Sarah Wade, 26, Management Consultant from Chicago, IL
Comparables: Sarah Wilson, Cassidy Clark
And yet another female that I cannot pinpoint.  My gut says she's a pre-merge boot, like Justine from 43 or Sarah from 41.  She's just got a forgettable face.  Sorry, Sarah!
Predicted Finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 14th.  Although she played a bit better than I thought she would...

Yamil "Yam-Yam" Arocho, 36, Salon Owner from San Juan, PR
Comparables: Naseer Muttalif, Ricard Foye
Yam Yam was also featured in the preview, and he was featured last (as in he'll be the one we remember most).  He's got to get far, right?  I debated putting him as my winner pick, considering how out of the box the winners have been in this new era.  Could he?
Predicted Finish: 6th-1st
CORRECT, 1st.  I was so close to picking the winner, too!  Damn, I knew I should've picked Yam-Yam!

All right, based on ALL of that, how would a boot order go based on their predicted finishes?

18th: Bruce Perrault
17th: Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt
16th: Sarah Wade
15th: Carson Garrett
14th: Jaime Lynn Ruiz
13th: Kane Fritzler
12th: Matt Blankinship
11th: Maddy Pomilla
10th: Danny Massa
9th: Frannie Marin
8th: Dr. Joshua Wilder
7th: Claire Rafson
6th: Brandon Cottom
5th: Helen Li
4th: Carolyn Wiger
3rd: Yamil "Yam Yam" Arocho
2nd: Matthew Grinstead-Mayle
1st: Lauren Harpe

Yep, Lauren is my winner pick for 44!  So far, my winner picks in the new era have placed 9th, 1st, and 4th.  Let's hope she doesn't pull a Lindsay Carmine and go from favorite to pre-merge boot.  I decided against Yam-Yam because typically, in Survivor history, people with accents have not done well at the final tribal council (See Tai Trang).  The only winner in Survivor history you could say had a foreign accent was Sandra, which her accent is slightly Puerto Rican, but still very intelligible.  But I will be rooting for Yam Yam along with Brandon and Jaime (Follow her on Tiktok).  Yam Yam would be the first Hispanic male to win if he could.  

As for actual winners, my pre-season placement for them was 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), and 18th (Gabler).  Well, at least if a woman wins, I'm pretty close.  Watch Bruce end up winning now.  

Well, not too bad!  I placed 8/18 (44%) right this time!  And I was soooo close to the winner pick.  Now the people that ended up winning, I placed them 3rd, 1st, 18th, and 3rd again.  And my winner picks have finished 9th, 1st, 4th, and 5th.  This season, I most overestimated Matthew (left with injury, not my fault) and Helen.  I most underestimated Heidi, who went from 2nd boot (my prediction) to 2nd place.  Also Carson, who I thought would be more of a Zach Wurtenberger than a Sami or Xander.

Top 20 Survivor Players who (still) deserve a second shot

Survivor is my all time favorite reality show.  They've now gone on for 40 seasons and 20 years.  There have been 487 different players in Survivor's 20 year run.  103 have played multiple seasons.  Of the remaining 384, there are certainly some who deserve a second shot.  Some are interesting characters and some are actual good players.  I have come up with 20 players who deserved a second shot.  I even went to the trouble to make it 10 men and 10 women, with some diversity as well, as if this could be a future season of Survivor.  And to make it even more interesting, I divided them into two tribes: Characters and Players.  

The ten on the character tribe are known more for their interesting personalities than being good players.  This certainly would be an interesting and fun to watch tribe.  Would they struggle?  Probably.  But it would be so much fun to watch.

Characters:

Shane Powers (Exile Island/Panama)
I believe Shane was in the running to be a Villain on "Heroes vs. Villains", but was a last minute cut, probably for Russell Hantz.  Who knows if he even is on good terms with CBS, but it still would be interesting to see Shane return.  He might be on the cusp of being too old, but we've seen older returning players.

Nate Gonzalez (Cook Islands)
Nate was sure fun to watch and I liked his personality.  He also gave us some of the best jury member reactions we've still ever seen.  I would love to see Nate brought back, if just for his reactions as a jury member.

Erik Cardona (Samoa)
Erik would definitely be a "villain" type of player.  He did, however, do his best to persuade the jury to vote for Natalie to win over Russell, which may have resulted in Natalie's victory.  He would have been a great player that could have potentially stopped Russell Hantz had he not been blindsided when he was.  

Dave Ball (Samoa)
Yet another male player from Samoa, and they were on the same tribe, too.  Dave was an interesting character, and he had some great one-liners.  My favorite was "He [Erik] got clotheslined... by the clothesline!"  They should bring Dave Ball back.  Mostly because Jeff often used his full name.

Hayden Moss (Blood vs. Water)
Hayden finished with the 2nd best position of any "loved one" on Blood vs. Water, yet he has never been brought back.  He played a hard game and even managed to sway Ciera to his side to force a rock draw.  I loved his banter with Tyson about "russelling feathers".  He would be an interesting character to bring back.

Heidi Strobel (Amazon)
I'm surprised they brought back Jenna but never Heidi.  Heidi was just as interesting of a character, if not more so.  I still think Heidi could come back, but instead of being the hot, ditzy blonde she's the hot, ditzy mom.  She stays active as can be gathered from her posts on Instagram.  Her being married to a famous baseball player (Cole Hamels) would probably work against her, though.

Michelle Yi (Fiji)
Fiji actually had a pretty good cast, despite only one player (Yau Man) ever returning to play again so far.  There's only a small handful that could work in bringing them back, and one of them is Michelle.  Michelle was screwed over by a twist in the game, which was an impromptu tribal council with a group of random players in which she was on the wrong side of the numbers.  She was adorable and also started fire with basically nothing, so she would be awesome to have back.

Natalie Bolton (Micronesia)
Natalie was definitely a villainess on her season, which didn't really show until after the merge and the Black Widow alliance formed.  She was the one who got the immunity necklace from Erik.  She also gave some confessionals to show her true colors.  I'm a bit surprised she was never brought back.  I'd love to see her back.  

Alicia Rosa (One World)
Sure, Alicia said some mean things and didn't seem like a good person, but she still made for an entertaining villain.  She went through breast cancer and a double mastectomy in the past few years, which probably made her appreciate the smaller things in life more.  I'd love to see her given a second chance.    

J'Tia Taylor (Cagayan)
She may have dumped out her tribe's rice, but I'm sure she's matured since then.  She has since gotten married.  Perhaps with a second shot, her tribe would do better?  Probably not, but it would be interesting to see her again.

Players:

Jonas Otsuji (One World)
Jonas was well-liked, which ultimately was the reason for his demise.  The guy reminded me of a good-natured Boston Rob.  I always thought he deserved a second shot.  He gave some pretty funny confessionals, too.

Ian Rosenberger (Palau)
I think Ian is someone CBS has definitely wanted back, and he was asked back for Cambodia: Second Chance but he declined.  He's still fairly young and could come back if he changes his mind.  

Rafe Judkins (Guatemala)
I thought Rafe was playing the best game of his season, and I'm a bit surprised he never played again.  He's a television writer now, so it's unlikely he'd ever leave that comfortable job to play Survivor again.  But Rafe seems like someone intelligent enough to adapt to the faster-paced game.

Kenny Hoang (Gabon)
Kenny was undoubtedly playing the best strategic game in Gabon.  He tried to make Bob out to the be the bad guy, but it backfired.  I would love to see him given a second shot.  I could see him controlling a game if he was brought back.

Reynold Toepfer (Caramoan)
Reynold was a huge part of the Three Amigos alliance.  He became a force in challenges as well.  He just got on the wrong side of the numbers.  He seemed like a strong and vocal player who was in hot water the entire game.  Yet he made it a lot further than people were expecting.  It might be hard to bring him back as Reynold has settled down and started a family.

Darrah Johnson (Pearl Islands)
I loved Darrah on Pearl Islands.  She wasn't a very vocal or strategic player, but she went on immunity run semi-late into the game, which once it ended, resulted in her being voted out.  She's still under the age of 40.  She also was the Morgan tribe member that got the furthest in the game before being voted out for the first time.  

Sherea Lloyd (China)
I remember Sherea being the strongest female of her struggling Zhan Hu tribe.  When the tribes had to pick the other tribe's two strongest players they'd like, Sherea was chosen.  Yet, she has never returned to play again.  I think she could still be a force.  

Ashley Underwood (Redemption Island)
Of the two girls under Boston Rob's wing, Ashley was definitely the stronger player, which resulted in Natalie making it to the end and not her.  She started being a huge force in challenges late in the game.  If she had somehow managed to take out Boston Rob and went to the end with Natalie and Phillip, I think she wins.  I would like to see her given a second shot.

Chelsea Meissner (One World)
I think Chelsea played a pretty darn good game.  It's just that Kim Spradlin was controlling everything and was playing an even better game.  I'd love to see Chelsea given a second shot if she wanted.  I think she would learn to be more vocal and more aggressive.

RC Saint-Amour (Philippines)
The funny thing is, RC was supposed to be on "Blood vs. Water" with her dad, but he had a medical issue and they couldn't go and were replaced by Candice and John.  So CBS has definitely wanted her back, yet she still has yet to come back.  She's still fairly young, so why not?