I will, at the very least, keep up my tradition of predicting the NFL season, even though I'm always wrong about many things. But hey, it's fun. I'm going to get straight to it, the predicted records, the playoff predictions, and then, a short bit about the Seahawks, my favorite team. A heads up, I'm going to try to predict a few surprises, so some of these records may surprise you. After all, we always see several surprisingly good and bad teams each season.
* = Wild Card
AFC EAST
1. Miami Dolphins 11-6
2. Buffalo Bills 10-7*
3. New England Patriots 8-9
4. New York Jets 6-11
Comment: The Dolphins win a mediocre at best division as the Bills have a few setbacks. The Patriots and Drake Maye surprise some people. Aaron Rodgers either struggles or gets hurt and the Jets are, well, the Jets.
AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati Bengals 12-5
2. Baltimore Ravens 11-6*
3. Cleveland Browns 8-9
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-10
Comment: The Bengals are back on top and Burrow plays all season. The Ravens regress slightly, most notably on defense after losing Mike Macdonald. The Browns are okay, but Watson proves to not stay healthy or consistent. The Steelers regress without a solid QB as both Wilson and Fields struggle against the tough defenses of the AFC North.
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts 11-6
2. Houston Texans 10-7*
3. Tennessee Titans 9-8
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-11
Comment: Yep, you heard it here. The Colts surge with a healthy Anthony Richardson. The Texans are still decent, but slightly lose their grasp on the division. The Titans surprise people with their underrated D and Will Levis competing his butt off. The Jaguars again struggle to find consistency.
AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs 10-7
2. Los Angeles Chargers 9-8
3. Denver Broncos 7-10
4. Las Vegas Raiders 4-13
Comment: The Chiefs win the worst division in the AFC despite a bit of a Super Bowl hangover. The Chargers show flashes under new coach Jim Harbaugh, but look like they'll take a year to make a big stride. The Broncos are competitive, and Bo Nix establishes himself as the starter. The Raiders struggle mightily, even under Minshew.
NFC EAST
1. Dallas Cowboys 10-7
2. Philadelphia Eagles 8-9
3. Washington Commanders 8-9
4. New York Giants 7-10
Comment: In a very mediocre division, Dallas remains on top. The Eagles struggle and continue their slide from last season. The Commanders show some flashes but it's not enough. The Giants aren't terrible, but are missing a star QB.
NFC NORTH
1. Detroit Lions 12-5
2. Chicago Bears 9-8*
3. Green Bay Packers 7-10
4. Minnesota Vikings 5-12
Comment: The Lions win the division two years in a row thanks to the best roster in the division. The Bears surprise people and Caleb Williams looks like the real deal. Jordan Love shows a bit that last year was a bit of an abberration. The Vikings struggle without JJ McCarthy and having to go with Darnold.
NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons 10-7
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-10
3. New Orleans Saints 6-11
4. Carolina Panthers 6-11
Comment: The Falcons win a very winnable division thanks to the addition of Cousins. The Bucs struggle in year 2 under Mayfield. The Saints and Panthers have different stories: The Saints suffer massive disappointment while the Panthers remain optimistic under new head coach Dave Canales.
NFC WEST
1. San Francisco 49ers 13-4
2. Seattle Seahawks 10-7*
3. Los Angeles Rams 10-7*
4. Arizona Cardinals 6-11
Comment: The 49ers remain very tough and win a formidable division. My Seahawks surprise people and win 10 games, largely thanks to an improved defense. The Rams also win ten games, but more on the back of their offense. The Cardinals aren't awful, but struggle to beat any somewhat decent teams.
Before I get to the playoffs, here are the coaches in this scenario I'd expect to get fired:
Robert Saleh, Jets
Doug Pederson, Jaguars
Antonio Pierce, Raiders
Nick Sirianni, Eagles
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers
Dennis Allen, Saints
With Mike Tomlin as an outside possibility (possibly steps down instead of getting fired).
Now onto the NFL Playoffs! Who is my prediction for Super Bowl LIX?
AFC WILD CARD
(7) Texans at (2) Dolphins: Dolphins win
(6) Bills at (3) Colts: Bills win
(5) Ravens at (4) Chiefs: Chiefs win
NFC WILD CARD
(7) Bears at (2) Lions: Lions win
(6) Rams at (3) Cowboys: Rams win
(5) Seahawks at (4) Falcons: Seahawks win
AFC DIVISIONAL
(6) Bills at (1) Bengals: Bengals win
(4) Chiefs at (2) Dolphins: Chiefs win
NFC DIVISIONAL
(6) Rams at (1) 49ers: 49ers win
(5) Seahawks at (2) Lions: Lions win
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
AFC: Chiefs at Bengals: Bengals
NFC: Lions at 49ers: 49ers
SUPER BOWL LIX
Bengals vs 49ers: 49ers win, 23-17
Yup, I hate to admit it, but the 49ers finally win another Super Bowl. Turns out, third time is the charm for Kyle Shanahan, at least as a head coach.
And now, my Seahawks. I don't want to predict each game, because I'll be wrong about some wins and I'll be wrong about some losses. I'll just go over three aspects of the team:
Offense: Slow start, but shows more explosiveness than last season. There's not a ton of consistency with the offense. Some games they may score 30+, others less than 20. Geno has a bit of a bounce back season. The lack of quality tight end depth hurts. The run game could still be improved and show more consistency, as K9 breaks a few home run type runs but struggles to gain consistent yardage.
Defense: The defense is improved without the secondary of Diggs and Adams dragging them down. The loss of Wagner's leadership is felt, but a few young players emerge, such as Derick Hall and of course, Byron Murphy. The D-Line proves to be a Top 10 D-Line in the NFL. The linebackers have their ups and downs, while the secondary is mostly decent.
Coaching: I expect the growing pains that usually come with a rookie head coach/new coaching staff, but I do expect a new energy in this team. I think they'll be in the middle of the league in terms of penalties (perhaps still bottom half) but I expect the Time of Possession to improve, largely due to the defense getting off the field, rather than the offense sustaining drives. All in all, I expect a solid first season with a bright future in front of us.
Well, that does it for my 2024 NFL Predictions. I'll take the Hawks having a good first year under Mike Macdonald, even if it means a 49ers Super Bowl... I guess. But it should be a fun season. Go Hawks!
Monday, August 19, 2024
Condensed 2024 NFL Predictions!
Thursday, February 1, 2024
NFL Coaching Hirings Grades and Thoughts
With my Seahawks in the process of hiring a new head coach, I'm more invested in the NFL teams hiring head coaches than ever. So, I thought I'd react and grade each head coach hiring, including the Seahawks', which I will go more in-depth on than other teams. In order, chronologically:
Patriots hire Jerod Mayo: B-
NFL Linebackers have done well as NFL coaches in recent history. Vrabel was good in Tennessee up until his last few seasons. Demeco Ryans did fantastic in his first year in Houston. Antonio Pierce did well as an interim coach (see below). This is what you call a very safe move. Mayo will keep the team from chaos, futility, and disorder, but I definitely think he may be a bridge coach. The roster is one of the worst in the NFL and one offseason won't fix it. Mayo learned from Belichick as a player and a coach, so for the players that remain it will be a fairly easy transition. Maybe, if they make the right moves in the next couple of offseasons, they can return to contention around 2025-2026, but that is my optimistic view for them.
Raiders hire Antonio Pierce: B+
Could they have done better? Maybe. But you had their best player, Maxx Crosby, publicly state if they didn't stick with Pierce that he'd likely request a trade. That speaks volumes. Pierce definitely seems like an excellent motivator, but we haven't seen too much of him as an in-game strategist or decision-maker. It'll be interesting to see. I could certainly see the Raiders as a potential wild card next year under Pierce. He's certainly better than McDaniels, and it's good to see Mark Davis learned his lesson.
Titans hire Brian Callahan: B
I'm always lukewarm on coaches who have never been head coaches before unless they have an amazing pedigree, but Brian Callahan has a few things going for him. One, he is the son of a coach and obviously learned a bit from him. Two, he coordinated one of the league's best offenses in Cincinnati, and even made Jake Browning look decent. But again, I am skeptical on new coaches, but as far as new coaches go, Callahan is a pretty darn good one.
Chargers hire Jim Harbaugh: A
Harbaugh has had success wherever he has gone as a head coach. He went from bowl success with Stanford, to making the Super Bowl with the 49ers, to winning a national title with Michigan. Next, Super Bowl win with the Chargers? Hard to be upset with this hire unless you're a Chiefs, Raiders, or Broncos fan. I can't give it an A+ because Harbaugh has been away from the NFL for a few years, and it has changed in that time. We've seen coaches away from the NFL game struggle on a return *cough* Jon Gruden *cough*. I doubt it'll be Harbaugh, but that is a possibility.
Panthers hire Dave Canales: C
I don't know why this hire doesn't sit particularly well with me. You have to give Canales some credit for helping revive the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Can he do the same for Bryce Young? We will see. Here's the thing: The Seahawks' offense in 2022 and the Buccaneers' offense in 2023 weren't exactly lighting up scoreboards, and had great receiver talent already in place that helped, and both teams barely snuck into the playoffs. Does Canales get this job if one thing goes wrong for the Hawks in 2022 or the Bucs in 2023 to prevent them from reaching the playoffs? And he was an OC for only 1 season. This is a boom or bust hire, so either Canales will join the ranks of McVay, Shanahan, and LeFleur, or he will get fired in a few seasons. Good luck.
Falcons hire Raheem Morris: D+
I can't wrap my mind around this. This is a guy who was in the Falcons' organization a bit over 3 years ago, and he was even their interim head coach after they fired Dan Quinn, and they easily could've shed the interim tag and made him full-time. Instead, they went out and got Arthur Smith, which turned out to be a mistake. Now they've gone full circle and re-hired Morris. I just don't get it. I think Arthur Blank, the Falcons' owner, panicked and hired the guy he was most familiar with. This is an incredibly safe and low-risk hire. But I can almost guarantee the Falcons won't do any better than a borderline playoff team under Morris, and possibly a weak division winner if the division sucks (like Tampa Bay this year). There's no way they'll do better than that. And more realistically, they'll likely hover around 6-8 wins, just like they did with Smith.
Seahawks hire Mike Macdonald: A+
A young coach being installed in a place with a support system and decent owners? That usually works out. The only time it really hasn't was with Brandon Staley and the Chargers, although you could argue the "decent owner" front. Let's hope we don't have another Brandon Staley, but something tells me we don't. I love John Schneider's willingness to go young, and I wonder (we will never likely know) who his plan B would've been. Macdonald had some amazing defenses in Baltimore, and he made stars out of Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey. I think he fits in very well in Seattle, and I, as well as many fans, will be willing to give him time. I'm betting we'll see a quick turnaround on our defense, but the offense might be a work in progress, depending on who he picks for offensive coordinator. I fully believe he was chosen due to the success his defense had against the NFC West last season, and JS is hoping he replicates that with the Hawks.
Commanders hire Dan Quinn: C-
His defenses have done very well in recent years, and I'll say this: we have seen coaches have success when given a 2nd or 3rd shot. Look at Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick (although, to be fair, DQ is no Carroll or Belichick). I can see why Commanders' fans would not be too happy. But hey, they poached him from a division rival, so DQ is certainly familiar with the opposing offenses in the division. The key to his success will be the OC hire and if they can get a star quarterback. Sam Howell is a fairly capable starter, but defensive-minded coaches need star QBs, which Howell is not. This hiring can end up being a success, but so can all of these. DQ will need to prove he can win without Kyle Shanahan as his OC.
Tuesday, November 21, 2023
NFL Teams Ranked--Again
We're midway through the 2023 season, and it sure is an interesting one. I thought I'd rank each of the 32 NFL teams in terms of my personal preference. As a Seahawks fan, a lot of these rankings are self-explanatory, but most are not. I'll try to keep it brief, especially if it's self-explanatory.
FAVORITE
1. Seattle Seahawks - Always my #1, always my ride or die.
I LIKE THESE TEAMS (Not too surprisingly, all AFC teams)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Team I've adopted as my #2, or my favorite AFC team. The Seahawks have no reason to hate them. I like their new resurgence with Trevor Lawrence, and I really hope they accomplish some things.
3. Miami Dolphins - I'm high on them for three reasons: 1) My girlfriend's 1st cousin once removed is their kicker, Jason Sanders. He's her dad's cousin. 2) Salvon Ahmed, one of their backup running backs, grew up in Kirkland, WA, just like me. 3) One of their safeties is Jevon Holland, who shares a last name with me, the only Big 4 sports professional athlete I know of who has that distinction.
4. Kansas City Chiefs - I can't help it, they're so easy to root for and fun to watch. Mahomes, Kelce, Andy Reid, what's not to like?
5. Buffalo Bills - I love Josh Allen; he's one of my favorite NFL players. The Bills remind me of my Seahawks in a way: loyal to a fault and will brave the elements.
I'M HAPPY FOR YOU WHEN YOU WIN (Usually, unless you beat my Hawks)
6. Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow is easy to root for, and finally Cincy has a consistent winner.
7. Minnesota Vikings - The Jon Bois/SB Nation documentary vaulted them up a bit, plus how big a fan Marshall on How I Met Your Mother is of them, and he's one of my favorite sitcom characters ever.
8. Cleveland Browns - I don't like how they got Watson, but I love lovable losers. They still deserve to have success someday. One of my favorite YouTubers, KTO, is a big Browns fan.
9. Detroit Lions - They are easy to like and their win over Green Bay last year enabled the Seahawks to get to the playoffs. Thanks again, Detroit!
10. Atlanta Falcons - Again, the Jon Bois/SB Nation documentary. Highly recommend.
NO BIG REASON TO DISLIKE, MAYBE A SMALL REASON TO LIKE
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I still think of those late 90s/early 2000s teams that just dominated on defense. They were fun to watch. They're still fairly likable. Guess I just like Florida NFL teams.
12. Los Angeles Chargers - Never really had a reason to dislike them, except for the fact that as of writing this post, the last time I saw a Seahawks game in person, they lost to the Chargers. But I don't hold that against them too much. We should have done more.
13. Dallas Cowboys - I know, I know. I just find large market teams (Lakers, Yankees, Cowboys) appealing and fun to root for on occasion. But it is also funny to see them lose, too.
14. Houston Texans - They would be higher, but they share a city with a certain MLB team I would rank 30 out of 30, so that drops them a bit. I like their uniforms, stadium, but they haven't always made the best personnel decisions.
YOU'RE OK, SO LONG AS YOU DON'T BEAT MY HAWKS
15. Washington Commanders - First off, I wish they'd change their name again. "Commanders" is so generic and uninspiring. But I like how Dan Snyder is no longer a part of this team. Now they just need a new stadium. But I don't really have a reason to hate them.
16. Las Vegas Raiders - Cool stadium, classic uni's. I'm not a Raider hater. Although, like the Cowboys, it's funny to see them lose.
17. Indianapolis Colts - They were featured on Parks and Rec, so that's cool. The Colts may be the one NFL team I've never felt much emotion towards at all, so it's fitting that they're square in the middle.
18. Arizona Cardinals - What? A division rival? Yep. I don't mind the red birds all that much, so long as we can at least split our season series with them.
19. Chicago Bears - They may be the one NFL team that has never had a legit franchise quarterback in the Super Bowl era, it's crazy. I wish them the best someday in finding that guy. I don't mind the Bears too much, classic franchise and I find their games oddly entertaining, even when they are struggling.
I DON'T HAVE SYMPATHY FOR YOU WHEN YOU LOSE
20. Tennessee Titans - There's the Music City Miracle, at least, one of my favorite NFL plays of all time. I watched that live as an almost 11-year-old. But I just have never found a reason to like the Titans all that much.
21. New York Giants - Another one of my favorite YouTubers, FivePointsVids, is a Giants fan, but that's about it. Their classic uni's are nice.
22. Denver Broncos - This team has probably moved the most in recent years, considering the Russell Wilson trade and all. I'm coming back around on them, and they move back up for me. In the earlier part of this century, I had them as a Top 5 team.
23. New Orleans Saints - Part of me forgot about them, part of me just doesn't care. I find them incredibly overrated as a franchise, considering they were nothing before the Payton/Brees era.
24. Carolina Panthers - They beat my Seahawks in the playoffs once, so there's that. But so have the Cowboys, Dolphins, Falcons, and Bears, all of who are higher on this list. I just haven't forgiven them, I guess.
I ALMOST ALWAYS ROOT AGAINST YOU WHEN I WATCH
25. Philadelphia Eagles - Their fans are just awful. I wish them nothing but misery. I like Jason Kelce, but that's about it. Die, Eagles, Die.
26. New York Jets - Again, not likable fans, and they're just incredibly boring and inept. And I hate their color scheme--green and white? Yuck.
27. Baltimore Ravens - They recently beat my Hawks, but moreover, they used to be the Browns, who were stolen from Cleveland and moved to Baltimore (Thanks, Art Modell). And they've been rewarded with two Super Bowls. It reminds me of how my Sonics were stolen from me.
28. Green Bay Packers - A lot of defeats at the hands of these guys, but they've lost to us, too. I just hate when we lose to them when, because of the refs or a bonehead play by our QB (Thanks Hasselbeck), we lose. I almost always root against the Packers. Their fans are a bit obnoxious, too.
DIE, CHUMPS (I seriously wish nothing but bad things for these teams)
29. Pittsburgh Steelers - Three words: Super Bowl 40 (XL). Yeah. Still not over it. I know, it's been almost 18 years now. I may never get over it. Plus, like the Packers, their fans are obnoxious. But the sting of the Super Bowl certainly hurts less now that we have a ring ourselves.
30. New England Patriots - Another team we lost to in the Super Bowl. Plus, they had so much success with Brady and Belichick, it was sickening. Their struggles right now are so incredibly hilarious.
31. San Francisco 49ers - Our biggest rival. I can't stand their fans on social media--they are the absolute worst. Reminds me of Astros fans. Oddly, this is my girlfriend's favorite team, being from that area, which probably saves them from the final spot. But I can never come around on them, especially now that they are a very tough team to beat.
32. Los Angeles Rams - Too many agonizing defeats to these guys. The blowout at home which was our first big loss at home in years. The phantom holding call on the first game in Sofi. The loss in the playoffs in 2020. And the two games this year. Also, I hate Aaron Donald--he's a dirty player. At least when the Niners struggle, we can beat them. Even when the Rams struggle, we struggle to beat them ourselves. Also, they're yet another franchise that has moved, so screw them.
Friday, May 13, 2022
Initial Thoughts of Seahawks 2022 Schedule
The Seahawks 2022 schedule just came out, so I thought I'd give my thoughts on it. I'll go game by game and give at least one thought or comment on each matchup, it's timing/network and sum up our schedule overall at the end.
Week 1: vs. Denver (MNF)
Well, we might as well get it out of the way week 1! Russ comes back and I like that we see him early as he may not be fully situated in the Broncos offense. I think this will be low-scoring.
Week 2: at 49ers
I never like giving the 49ers the advantage, and we'll be playing them on a short week. Yuck.
Week 3: vs. Falcons
Some nice skill players (Kyle Pitts, DK Metcalf) but no legit QB's to throw to them. Yawn.
Week 4: at Lions
I worry about this game, actually. The Lions may be an improved team next season.
Week 5: at Saints
Three beatable opponents in a row finishes with the Saints. The best QB the Hawks will see in this time is Jared Goff. But knowing the Hawks, they'll find a way to lose one or two at least.
Week 6: vs. Cardinals
Let's hope the Cards are in the midst of a rough start like I think they might be. We could catch them at a great time (for us).
Week 7: at Chargers
I'll be shocked if we win this. But it'll be fun to watch Justin Herbert.
Week 8: vs. Giants
Takes place the day before Halloween, and the Hawks hope to deliver their fans a treat.
Week 9: at Cardinals
Both Cardinal matchups before week 10 and both before we play the Rams once. Hopefully the Hawks won't be looking ahead to the following week before playing this one...
Week 10: vs. Tampa Bay in Munich, Germany
Too bad the Hawks couldn't be at home before this game, but oh well. This was announced a week ago and it should be a game we'll remember for a while. It will likely be the last time Tom Brady faces the Seahawks.
Week 11: BYE
The NFL was smart to put our BYE next to our trip to Germany. I like how the team pranked players by showing them schedules where the BYE wasn't anywhere near the trip, haha.
Week 12: vs. Raiders
The Raiders could be in an offensive groove by this point, or missing a key starter to injury. Either way, I'm not big on our chances.
Week 13: at Rams
We finally play the defending champs in Week 13. Let's hope the refs don't screw us like they did last year.
Week 14: vs. Panthers
This will either be a Panthers team on the cusp of a wild card or a Panthers team that's out of it. Let's hope for the latter.
Week 15: vs. 49ers (TNF)
I was hoping to take my girlfriend to a 49ers game, but seeing as they're playing on Thursday, that'll be hard to do. Let's hope at least the Hawks are somewhat competitive at this point for a national viewing audience.
Week 16: at Chiefs (Saturday)
Can we pencil in an "L" already? Unless something crazy happens before then, the Hawks won't be headed home on Christmas Eve very happy...
Week 17: vs. Jets
Playing New York on New Year's Day. I kinda like the sound of that. Hopefully the Hawks first game in the calendar year of 2023 is a W.
Week 18: vs. Rams
I like how the Hawks play their final two games at home, so if there's any chance they're competing for a playoff spot, they'll be fairly rested (from travel). Unfortunately, we finish with the Rams, which could be a blessing in disguise, as their playoff seeding may already be determined by this point.
Overall, not a bad schedule. Only two primetime games (yikes) and only one on a regular network and not a streaming service. That's what happens when you trade your star quarterback away, I guess. This must be the first time since we drafted Russell Wilson that we don't have a single Sunday Night Football game. Crazy.
Saturday, November 28, 2020
My NFL Team Tiers
Way back in the day, I ranked NFL teams from 1 to 32 on how much I like them. I thought about doing an updated list, but I realized it makes more sense just to group teams together based on what I think of them. So, I grouped them into as few tiers as I could, which is 7. I'll explain my rationale as to why each team is in each tier. I'll also rank the tiers from favorite group to least favorite. Generally, teams in a higher tier I will like more than teams in a lower tier, but not always.
1. My all-time #1 favorite team and always will be:
Seattle Seahawks
Being from the Seattle area and being the son of a huge Seahawks fan since their inception, I will always be a Seahawks fan, and they will always be #1 in my heart. I'll always be a 12, and I'll always bleed blue and green.
2. The Lovable Losers Tier
Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars
Detroit Lions
Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans
I could probably count the number of playoff wins in the past 15-20 years between all these teams on one hand. The teams in this tier tend to lose more than they win, and I have a soft spot for them. Being a fan of a lovable loser in baseball (The Mariners), I can relate to fans of these teams. Whenever these teams have a rare bit of success, I tend to root for them. The Browns, Bills, and Texans have had recent "success", but who knows how long it will last for each of them.
3. The Lovable Winners Tier
Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints
I tried to get more teams in this tier, but I couldn't. I also couldn't put either of them anywhere else. Unless either of these teams beat my Seahawks bad in the playoffs, I don't see me disliking them anytime soon. The Chiefs have great fans and with Patrick Mahomes, they should be fun to watch for a long time. And I've had a soft spot for the Saints since they had to deal with Hurricane Katrina. Drew Brees may be retiring soon, which may cause me to move them to another tier.
4. The "At Least You're Usually Entertaining to Watch" Tier
Dallas Cowboys
Las Vegas Raiders
Baltimore Ravens
Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons
I don't really care either way if these teams win or lose, but for the most part the NFL is better when these teams win, because they are usually entertaining teams to watch. The Cowboys are "America's Team" and have a huge fanbase. The Raiders have the Black Hole and are one of the NFL's most storied franchises. The Ravens either have an exciting offense, dominating defense, or both. The Eagles are always well coached and are usually a good-all around team. And the Falcons usually have a high-flying offense, whether it be through the air or ground.
5. The Has Beens
Denver Broncos
Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts
Chicago Bears
Miami Dolphins
These are all teams that I used to like more than I do now. None are having quite the success they used to. Denver in the late 90's was when I first liked them, and I even (sort of) rooted for them in the early 2010's, except of course when they played my Hawks. The Vikings in the early 2000's were fun to watch with Culpepper, Moss, and Carter. The Bucs in the early 2000's had an amazing defense. The Colts with Peyton Manning were always fun to watch. The Bears had a dominating defense in the mid 2000's, and the Dolphins in the late 90's (and even for a brief period in the mid 2000s) were pretty good.
6. The "You Suck and I Don't Have Sympathy for You" Tier
Arizona Cardinals
Washington Football Team
Cincinnati Bengals
New York Giants
New York Jets
Los Angeles Chargers
This is like the lovable losers, except I don't have sympathy for when these teams lose. Arizona's in the Seahawk's division, so no further explanation needed there. Washington has a terrible owner. Cincinnati just has never appealed to me. The two New York teams are questionably run at best at the top, and the Chargers shouldn't have moved from San Diego.
7. The "I Love to Watch You Lose Even If It's Rare" Tier
Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers
Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots
My most hated tier. The teams that (despite my wishes) still usually have success. I can't even really explain why I dislike the Titans, except perhaps that my Hawks usually lose to them. The Panthers have been a "rival" of the Hawks for a while, plus I have no reason to root for them. The Packers have been a rival for the Hawks as well, beating us a few times. The Rams and Niners should be self-explanatory. The Steelers beat the Hawks in Super Bowl XL, and the Patriots beat the Hawks in Super Bowl XLIX. I will never forgive those two teams for that.
I can see some changes happening. If Buffalo has long term success with Josh Allen, they could move to the Lovable Winners tier. I could see some of the Has Beens moving up to another tier if they become more exciting to watch or have more success. But this is how I feel right now, and I'm sticking to it.
Thursday, January 2, 2020
Outlook for Non-Playoff NFL Teams in 2020
Atlanta Falcons: I’m glad they held onto Dan Quinn. He’s a very good coach, and he probably would’ve quickly been given another head coaching opportunity elsewhere had he been fired, much like Ron Rivera. Their defense needs to improve greatly in 2020 as that is Quinn’s specialty. Matt Ryan continues to put up numbers, but doesn’t seem quite capable of carrying a team when things are kind of going bad, like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson can. I do expect them to improve in 2020 because of how well-run they generally are.
Arizona Cardinals: Not a bad first year for Kyler and Kliff. With a few more additions, they may avoid the NFC West basement in 2020. Unfortunately, the Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers are all well-built teams with elite head coaches, so it will be tough to avoid 4th place no matter how much the Cards improve. I like Kyler Murray a lot, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him take a Lamar Jackson-type leap in 2020, although I don’t expect the Cardinals to be as good as the Ravens have been in 2019.
Carolina Panthers: Firing Ron Rivera was a very questionable move, but I just think the new owner wanted a fresh change (and perhaps an offense-focused head coach). I'd give David Tepper, the owner, a grade of B for hiring David Tepper. He's a proven college coach, but will that translate to the pros? It didn't for Nick Saban, that's for sure. We'll see if Matt Rhule will want to work with Cam Newton at all, or find his own guy. I don’t expect the Panthers to be awful in 2020, but it will take another year at least to get back to playoff contention… I think.
Chicago Bears: The way the last calendar year has gone for the Bears has not been pretty. They lose in heartbreaking fashion in the playoffs and followed that up with a lackluster season. Is Trubisky really their guy at QB? Matt Nagy’s stubbornness to stick with him may cost him his job some day. In a tough division, the Bears will have to improve at least slightly in 2020 or changes may be on the way. I think Trubisky needs someone pushing him and someone Nagy could go to if he struggles. Perhaps Marcus Mariota? He would fit well in Matt Nagy's schemes.
Cincinnati Bengals: Having the number one pick can turn a franchise around pretty quickly (See Indianapolis in 2012). Is Joe Burrow capable of doing that? He’s not a sure-fire QB prospect like Andrew Luck, though. I’d say he’s more in the mold of a Matthew Stafford/Matt Ryan, and he will probably get to being in the top half of QB’s in the league. Don’t expect the Bengals to succeed right away, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Zac Taylor work some magic with their new QB, especially in his first year or two.
Cleveland Browns: So, they fire their coach and general manager, after a season in which the players didn’t perform up to expectations… ok. I understood firing Freddie Kitchens, but not Dorsey. It would take a terrific hire at both spots in order for this team to compete in 2020. They should be hopeful for an 8-8 or 9-7 season in 2020, with a legit shot at the playoffs maybe coming in 2021. Whoever they hire as head coach is going to have his hands full and has to be able to discipline his players and keep them in check. And Baker Mayfield has got to bounce back from his lackluster 2019 season, even though he will technically be on his fourth head coach in his third season in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys: Hiring Mike McCarthy is a very "meh" move. Yes, he's a proven winner as a coach, but he's very much like Jason Garrett and might not challenge his players or take risks when need be. Meanwhile, Dak had his best statistical season and needs to be re-signed to a long-term contract. I think things will work well in the first year because everything will be new to the players and they'll respond well to McCarthy at first. But after that, we'll have to wait and see.
Denver Broncos: Drew Lock is already the best young quarterback John Elway has found, although that is not saying much at all. I think Lock has a fairly low ceiling, but I see the Broncos as a team that could surprise people in 2020 if they draft right and maybe fill a couple holes. It will be interesting to see how Lock does in his first full season next year. As for Vic Fangio, he is constantly lauded for being one of the best defensive minds in the game, and next year he needs to prove it, or he might go the route of Vance Joseph.
Detroit Lions: I’m pretty surprised they gave Matt Patricia another year, but the Lions were playing really competitive football before Stafford’s injury. If not for a couple bad calls, they would have beaten the Packers in Green Bay, and they almost beat the Chiefs. Next year, this Lions team, provided Stafford can stay heathy, needs to compete and get at least near .500, or Patricia will be gone. I like their offensive weapons, and their defense isn’t bad, so if they can play inspired and healthy football, they will be a hard team to beat in 2020.
Indianapolis Colts: I’m sorry, but Jacoby Brissett is not a franchise quarterback. I do, however, think he makes one of the best backup QBs in the game. The Colts need to find someone to compete with Brissett for the starting QB job. They would be wise to draft someone, and Brissett could start while they learn, or they could go after someone like Teddy Bridgewater or Philip Rivers. The Colts were just instantly screwed in 2019 when Andrew Luck suddenly retired, and they still have a lot of good, young players. Once that offense gets its franchise QB, these Colts will be back.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Doug Marrone was one of a few coaches I thought for sure was getting fired. Nope. Instead, they fired Executive VP Tom Coughlin. They may forgive Marrone for this season because of the injury to Nick Foles, and he was the coach to lead them to the AFC Championship game just a couple seasons ago, but they can’t ignore how it seems the team quit on him in the second half of the season. If I’m being honest, I think the Jags might be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2020 and will get a top pick in the 2021 draft. Then the rebuild can commence with a new coach and QB.
Los Angeles Chargers: They’re in a weird spot. They have a lot of talent still, but an aging quarterback whose contract is up. They had perhaps the worst luck of any team in 2019, losing a ton of games by one score. If they are unable to find a legit QB for 2020, expect another 6-10/5-11 type season from them. Anthony Lynn seems to be a decent coach, but may fall victim to being the coach of a team in the middle of a transition at QB.
Los Angeles Rams: They were the only 9-7 team to not make the playoffs, so that’s something. But it certainly was a disappointing follow up to a Super Bowl appearance. Sean McVay and Jared Goff are safe for now, but what if they regress even more next year? They do play in a very competitive division, with the Cardinals looking to improve in 2020. Someone has got to be in last place. There is a major problem lurking in the future with this team: They mortgaged a lot of their future by trading away some first-round picks, and they have a lot of money tied up to a few players, so there is a possibility this team could see a major collapse in the next couple seasons.
Miami Dolphins: Boy they sure turned their season around. After starting out the year getting blown out by everyone, they finished the season with five wins, including beating the division champion Patriots in Foxborough. They will need to find their future at QB in the draft, as it apparently isn’t Josh Rosen. Fitzpatrick seems to be the starter in 2020 until their future starter takes over. Brian Flores, meanwhile, will probably be given plenty of time to turn this team fully around after turning the 2019 season around for them.
New York Giants: Apparently Pat Shurmur is a really good offensive coordinator, but not a good coach. They are struggling now to find a good coach since Tom Coughlin left. It is very risky hiring Joe Judge, who had never been a head coach anywhere before. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones started out great, but then kind of fizzled out. We’ll see how he does with Joe Judge in 2020, but I expect something similar to what we saw from Sam Darnold in 2019: Just not enough talent around him, and the offensive mind not be enough help. Their roster is also still lacking compared to their division rival Cowboys and Eagles.
New York Jets: Speaking of Sam Darnold, he looked good at times in 2019, but he is now third at best in terms of QB’s from his draft class, trailing Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Hopefully he can get some help on the offensive side of the ball, mainly on the offensive line. Perhaps Adam Gase isn’t that great of a coach as Peyton Manning says he is? Ryan Tannehill on the Titans sure seems to be doing better without him. I don’t have a ton of confidence in this team going into 2020 right now.
Oakland Raiders: For a brief stretch, the Raiders seemed to be playing some really good football. Perhaps a new environment will be able to motivate them all season long? I think they are headed in the right direction, but they certainly need to take a legit step forward in 2020. Derek Carr is definitely an above average quarterback, but Jon Gruden may want something more. I wouldn’t be shocked if they drafted a mid-round QB. Next season is pivotal for them; a winning season would be huge.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Big Ben should be able to play in 2020, but they have to find his successor and soon. In my “NFL Quarterbacks Who Will Get New Homes in 2020” post, I predicted they will draft Jacob Eason out of Washington. They’re not at code red to find a new quarterback, but the sooner (and earlier in the draft) they draft one, the better. Mike Tomlin did a great job in 2019 with what he had, and I expect them to return to form in 2020, as long as Big Ben stays healthy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Either they need to replace Jameis or get him to make smarter throws. That latter option may not be possible, however. They may want to go after a QB who protects the ball better, someone like Teddy Bridgewater. They’ve got a decent roster and a really good head coach, but it’s uncertain who the leader of this team is if not Jameis. Bruce Arians has done well with veteran quarterbacks in the past (Big Ben, Carson Palmer), so perhaps the Bucs will go after a veteran, maybe Philip Rivers?
Washington Redskins: What’s this? The Redskins making good decisions?! They hired Ron Rivera to be head coach and Jack Del Rio for defensive coordinator. That defense next year should be much better. As for their offense, well, they’ve got some pieces. They can’t rely on an aging Adrian Peterson anymore, and they need a legit QB. I don’t think that’s Dwayne Haskins. I predicted they might sign Jameis Winston, who I think could have success there, especially under Ron Rivera, who led Cam Newton to the playoffs many times (and to the Super Bowl once).
Before I conclude, I want to pick my top 3 teams from this list and bottom 3 teams. The top 3 teams are teams that I expect to bounce back and have good 2020 seasons and probably make the playoffs. The bottom 3 teams are teams I expect to continue to struggle and probably even get worse. First, the bottom 3, to get that out of the way:
3. Cleveland Browns
Unless they hire someone who is absolutely perfect (and let’s face it, we have no reason to believe they will), they will probably struggle again next year. Baker Mayfield doesn’t seem capable of carrying a team, and there are too many undisciplined players on this team. It could get ugly. Cleveland has a bad track record of turning hopefulness into absolute despair.
2. New York Jets
I just don’t trust the Jets front office. I don’t like Adam Gase as a head coach. He is one of the coaches I predict to be fired next season. And they play in a division with the Patriots, a good young Bills team, and a Dolphins team that’s slowly improving. It could go either way, but my gut tells me it won’t go the way they want.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Number one pick incoming? That’s my prediction, at least. They just don’t seem like their old 2017 selves anymore. They will regret bringing Doug Marrone back for another season. However, if they do get that number one pick, it could result in drafting Trevor Lawrence if he declares for the draft in 2021. Trevor Lawrence is talked about being the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck.
All right, and now for my top 3 teams to make a turnaround next season:
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Whenever they have an off season, they always bounce back. They are just too well-run of an organization to struggle for long. If they have a legit QB in 2020 (Big Ben, probably), they will more than likely be a playoff team. I think they could battle Baltimore for the division crown next year.
2. Atlanta Falcons
Hopefully Quinn can lead these guys back to playoff contention. With Tampa and Carolina having uncertain futures, and New Orleans being due for a disappointing season, the division could be there for the taking. The defense will be the biggest question. They showed flashes in 2019 (stopping the Saints offense in New Orleans for one), but will need to play more consistently in 2020, and I think they will.
1. Dallas Cowboys
I think the Cowboys players will be playing extremely motivated in 2020. What Jason Garrett was telling them and coaching them about was probably getting old and stale. But with a new head coach in Mike McCarthy, they could become one of the best teams in the NFL in 2020. I see them having a year like the 2019 Packers; new head coach brings fresh and positive results. They have a really good roster still, just needed the coach to match. It will also be interesting to see how McCarthy uses Dak and Zeke next year. He's never had a running back of Zeke's caliber.
Wednesday, August 7, 2019
My 2019 NFL Predictions!
Edit: With Andrew Luck's abrupt retirement, I had to adjust a few things, mainly the Colts season but also a couple others who are in their division.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots 11-5: Won't stop anytime soon
Is there any question? The Patriots still remain the favorites in the AFC East. Towards the end of last year Brady showed some signs of his age, and I think that'll creep in earlier this year, costing the Patriots a few games down the stretch. They'll still win the AFC East easily, of course because they have a bunch of young, talented players. Not until Brady and Belichick retire will this train stop and they have given zero indications that they will soon. However, for the first time in years they will not have a first round bye.
2. New York Jets, 8-8: Offensive progress or bust
The Jets are many people's dark horse team. Every year we see teams come out of nowhere to claim a playoff spot or division title. I'm unsure if that will be the Jets. They have Bell and C.J. Mosely, and Sam Darnold will be going into his 2nd year and is now under the tutelage of first year head coach Adam Gase. So this offense needs to make strides otherwise it could be a LONG time before the Jets make the playoffs again. Odds are they will, however. This team could go 10-6, but I'll stick with the safe pick of 8-8.
3. Buffalo Bills, 6-10: Old backs, young gun
Josh Allen goes into his second year (hence the young gun), but unlike Mayfield and Darnold won't taste too much success in his sophomore season. The old backs are LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore. The Bills will be competitive and shouldn't get blown out much, but they just don't have enough talent to win many games late.
4. Miami Dolphins, 5-11: Rosen gets screwed... again?
The Fins continue their QB carousel, as they moved on from what they hoped to be the first legit QB since Marino in Ryan Tannehill, but he never could get them over the hump. Now they'll go with a combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen. I expect to see a bit more of Rosen. I'll be honest, the Dolphins could be a team that surprises and wins 8 or 9 games, especially if Rosen breaks out. But if Rosen doesn't and the Fins struggle, they could draft a QB with their first pick next year, meaning Rosen gets screwed over by his team again.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-6: Less entertaining, so what?
First off, I don't expect the AFC North to be that good this season. Too many teams lost significant players. The Steelers were one of them. But they still have a great core of players. They still have James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster, two Pro Bowl caliber players. But their quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, will show signs of age. Despite that, yet again they'll win just enough to secure a division title thanks to lesser competition in their division.
2. Cleveland Browns, 9-7*: Hot start, cool finish
I think the Browns are a bit overhyped. I also think OBJ is a bit of locker room cancer. There's just too many egos on this team, and Mayfield is not the type of leader to keep things level-headed and calm the storm. I think they could get off to a good start and get people thinking Super Bowl (7-2 maybe?) but then come crashing back down to earth and lose a lot of their remaining games to fall to 9-7. This team is built to win early, but not late, but it will just be enough in a bad AFC.
3. Baltimore Ravens, 6-10: Lamar gets figured out
One of my bolder predictions this season is I predict the Ravens to have a bad year, culminating in a losing record. I don't think Lamar Jackson can succeed in the NFL long term. Much like his understudy, RGIII, he will have a disappointing sophomore season. The losses of Suggs and Moseley hurts them, and Earl Thomas probably gets hurt again, showing he just can't stay healthy anymore.
4. Cincinnati Bengals, 4-12: Hurt for Justin Herbert?
The Bengals are considered an afterthought right now. Not many people are going to want to tune in to watch a Bengals game. I don't see them going 2-14 or 1-15 but they are going to find it very difficult to pass any team in their division this year. I expect them to get a high draft pick and pick a QB in the 2020 draft, possibly Justin Herbert. They'll need to find Dalton's successor soon if he struggles at all in 2019, which is to be expected.
AFC South
1. Tennessee Titans, 10-6: Mariota's health is key
This team is just solid. I don't know what else to say. I like Mike Vrabel as a coach and I think the Titans get a few lucky breaks this year. Also, Mariota doesn't put up scoreboard shattering numbers, but he does make a lot of clutch plays late in games to make the Titans organization believe in him even more. But the main concern is his health, and if he can play solid quarterback with few to no injuries, the Titans will have a real good shot at the playoffs.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-8: Strive for mediocre, well...
These cats are mad. They had to be disgusted with themselves, following up a AFC Championship-berth season with 5 win season. However, they will face too much competition in the AFC and will only be average at best. They went out and got Nick Foles, who has yet to prove he can win outside of Philadelphia. He's an average quarterback at best when he's not on the Eagles. So when you strive for average, that's what you get.
3. Indianapolis Colts, 7-9: No More Luck Here
The Colts literally no longer have Luck after his abrupt retirement. You could expect this team to collapse and crumble, but I don't think they will. I think they play mostly inspired football, but without a true franchise quarterback, they'll struggle to win close games. Fortunately for them, Jacoby Brissett is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL, but there's a reason he's a backup.
4. Houston Texans, 6-10: Good luck Deshaun... seriously
You probably weren't expecting the reigning AFC South division champs here, were you? Well, did you expect the Jaguars to go from division champs to 5-11? Probably not. Anyway, my reasoning is something unfortunate that happens in the NFL: Injuries. Namely, I'm talking about an injury to Deshaun Watson. I hate predicting injuries, but with his horrible offensive line, I'm afraid it might happen. I hope I'm wrong. Good luck Deshaun. Also, losing Lamar Miller hurts, and their running game takes a hit as a result.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 13-3: Gotta beat the best
Going into 2018, the Chiefs didn't exactly know what they had in Patrick Mahomes so they weren't sure how to feel about the season. Now that they do, they've got nothing less of Super Bowl aspirations. They added the Honey Badger and former Seahawk Frank Clark. And, I think one of the surprises for 2019, Mecole Hardman. Remember that name. He's a speedster in the mold of Tyreek Hill. And speaking of Hill, boy are the Chiefs lucky he wasn't suspended. There was thought the Chiefs might have to cut him like they did Kareem Hunt. Now, with Hill and Hardman, if teams double Hill, Mahomes will be able to get the ball easily to Hardman. Watch out. In order for this to be a successful season, they'll have to beat the best, which of course is the Patriots. Couldn't do it last year in two opportunities. They'll get at least one shot this year.
2. Los Angeles Chargers, 10-6*: Chiefs in the way
I know this Chargers team expects big things in 2019, with notable young stars like Derwin James and Mike Williams. Barring injuries, they should compete well enough to get a winning record and a wild card spot. Like with Brady and Roethlisberger, however, I think Rivers could show signs of age as well. Hey, someone's bound to. However good they do, the Chiefs will probably do just as well. They'll either need a significant injury or collapse from the Chiefs, or just go on a run in the playoffs.
3. Denver Broncos, 8-8: Stuck in just average
Boy would it suck for Flacco if he lost his job to a rookie two years in a row. Flacco will begin the season as the starter but Drew Lock could take over if the team or Flacco struggle. I think they'll have an up and down season, but ultimately will have to look towards the future with Lock. This team screams average, with only a few notable exceptions like Von Miller.
4. Oakland Raiders, 6-10: Hard Knocks the highlight
Boy will it be fun to watch the Raiders on "Hard Knocks" this season. If Antonio Brown can stay healthy and out of trouble, he should add a spark to the Raiders offense and make them entertaining. But if the Raiders struggle too much, Gruden might have to make a tough decision to move on from Derek Carr and draft a QB in 2020. But more than likely the Raiders will struggle, leaving Hard Knocks as the lone highlight.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-6: Wentz healthy or else
Can Carson Wentz finally stay healthy all year? If he doesn't, Eagles fans will be very concerned for their future at the QB position. The Eagles are a good team, but it's not like their division is going to be really tough, especially the bottom 2. Jordan Howard will prove the Bears should never have let him go. The Eagles have enough talent to succeed, but with Foles no longer available as a security blanket, they'll need Wentz to stay healthy for a successful season.
2. Dallas Cowboys, 9-7: Zeke is not needed
I'm torn on these guys. On one hand, I want to predict a first round bye, but on the other, I want to predict them missing the playoffs entirely. I went with the latter. There's too much drama around this team thanks to Ezekiel Elliot. He's holding out, but the Cowboys don't need him. They're still a very good (if not better) team without him. And Dak Prescott is a very solid QB and improved once he got Amari Cooper. Will Garrett finally get the axe? Maybe Jerry Jones will just figure enough is enough and move on after the season.
3. Washington Redskins, 6-10: Jay Gruden, Sitting Duck
The only reason I'll want to watch a Redskins game this year is if they start Dwayne Haskins. Honestly I just see him as another EJ Manuel/Geno Smith type, but there is potential. Their defense isn't half bad, but I think if these Skins struggle to win games (which they probably will), we could see Jay Gruden shown the door. He's long been on a semi-hot seat, which will only get hotter the more the Skins lose. But we all know the real problem with this team is the owner, Dan Snyder.
4. New York Giants, 5-11: What are they thinking?
Oh, the Giants... boy I would not want to be a fan of them right now. They've drafted a running back and quarterback with their first picks the last two years, but haven't surrounded them with any kind of talent yet. This year will be all about transitioning from Eli Manning to Daniel Jones. So their QB will either be a washed-up has-been or an unpolished rookie. Yikes. And they may end up wasting the best years of one of the best running back talents in years in Saquon Barkley.
NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings, 11-5: Kirk on a mission
I feel like the division champ of the NFC North is usually the one team people don't see coming, excluding the Lions of course (Sorry, Lions fans). Last year it was the Bears. People are sleeping on the Vikings this year and I could see them pulling off some Minnesota magic. Kirk Cousins will be out to prove he can win in this league. Last year was him getting used to a new team, new system, and new teammates. Now that he's got a year under his belt with them, watch out.
2. Chicago Bears, 10-6*: Doink in the past
The Bears are still a well built team and were a kick away from winning a playoff game. Can't forget they have one of the best defensive players in the game in Khalil Mack. I could see the Bears hanging with the Vikes all the way to the end. They'll have to put last year's heartbreaking playoff loss way in the past to have success in 2019.
3. Green Bay Packers, 8-8: New coach, so what?
Aaron Rodgers is going to realize he had it good with Mike McCarthy. I'm not too impressed still with Green Bay's roster compared to Minnesota's and Chicago's. Also, I'm not too sure about the durability of Aaron Rodgers anymore. I hate to say it, but I think Aaron and Green Bay's best days are behind them. Matt LaFleur can only do so much as a rookie head coach, and he won't make that much of a difference.
4. Detroit Lions, 6-10: Someone's got to lose
The Lions aren't a bad team, there's so much competition in the NFC and specifically the NFC North. If they were in the AFC East they'd be 2nd place, easily. I like Patricia as a coach and they've made some solid additions. Just won't be enough... again. If another team in their division collapses they have a shot, but still a small one.
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons, 11-5: LI in the past
The Falcons will finally be able to put Super Bowl LI behind them and make a valiant effort to get back to the "big game". I like their roster and Matt Ryan always seems to be a bit underrated, in my opinion. Julio Jones will have a monster year, but more importantly their defense will have a great year and take big strides. I expect the Falcons to have their best season since their Super Bowl LI season in which... well we all know what happened.
2. New Orleans Saints, 9-7: Heartbreak catches up eventually
I hate to say it, but the Saints aren't making it back to the playoffs. Two heartbreaking playoff losses in a row is just killer. Brees is 40 and will be nearing 41 at season's end. They've got a good team, but they also have a tough schedule and I'm predicting a couple bad breaks for them. Just narrowly missing the playoffs. Heartbreak will catch up to them eventually.
3. Carolina Panthers, 7-9: Stuck with immature Cam
My oh my how far Cam Newton's stock has fallen. Remember when he was MVP? Seems like ages ago. He's now ranked 87th in the NFL's Top 100 after being #1 just THREE YEARS AGO. Yikes. My gut says Cam will not retire a Panther unless he retires early due to health concerns. Meanwhile, I'm still not sold on the Panthers as a team and I think they'll be so-so at best.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6-10: Not so famous Jameis
Will the Bruce Arians experiment work? Hard to say. Perhaps not with Jameis Winston. Like the Lions, Tampa Bay's not a bad team, they just play in a really tough division. I think their defense will be solid, but can Winston lead them to victory enough? Doubtful. I think Jameis' career will follow that of Josh Freeman's, where he ultimately becomes a journeyman backup quarterback, so not as famous.
NFC West
1. Los Angeles Rams, 12-4: Still too darn good
I hate to say it, but I think the Rams are going to be good again. I know I said in a post two months ago that I think the entire division (minus the Hawks of course) could struggle a bit in 2019. I really want to believe the Super Bowl hangover curse will happen to the Rams. They just have too much talent to go 8-8. They may have another great regular season, but that doesn't always mean they'll have a great postseason as well. Stay tuned.
2. Seattle Seahawks, 10-6*: Patience is a virtue
For the first time ever I reveal what I predict the Hawks record to be in my NFL predictions (usually I keep it in the separate Seahawks predictions). I see another winning season and another playoff berth. The Hawks could really challenge the Rams for the division title, but the Rams may just be too much. They are slowly getting better and better, filling holes left by the departed LOB and guys like Avril, Bennett, and Baldwin. We may not see too much success in 2019, but it's a slow ascent back to Super Bowl contention. For more on the Hawks 2019 season you'll have to see my other post on the Hawks HERE.
3. San Francisco 49ers, 8-8: Still don't like Jimmy
Well many are predicting the 49ers to double their 4 wins from last year and I think they will... barely. I'm still not sold on Garoppolo as a franchise quarterback. Dating a porn star? Also he doesn't seem to be able to stay fully healthy. The 49ers team isn't awful anymore, but will they be good enough to avoid another losing season? I think it'll be close. They'll have to wait another year to try to return to the playoffs.
4. Arizona Cardinals, 4-12: Kyler the right choice?
I'm taking a bit of a risk here and saying Kyler Murray just won't succeed in the NFL. At least not in his rookie season. He's small and unlike Russell Wilson doesn't have the stature to take hits constantly in the NFL. It doesn't help the Cards hopes that they play in a division where two recently made the playoffs and the other team is on its way up and could vie for a playoff spot. Also, I'm not sold on Kliff Kingsbury as a coach, but we'll see.
So those are all of my predicted regular season records in the NFL for 2019. Here's how the playoff seeding shapes up:
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 13-3
2. New England Patriots, 11-5
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-6
4. Tennessee Titans, 10-6
5. Los Angeles Chargers, 10-6
6. Cleveland Browns, 9-7
NFC
1. Los Angeles Rams, 12-4
2. Minnesota Vikings, 11-5
3. Atlanta Falcons, 11-5
4. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-6
5. Seattle Seahawks, 10-6
6. Chicago Bears, 10-6
All right, and how would these playoffs shape up? Let's find out.
WILD CARDS
AFC:
(6) Browns at (3) Steelers: Steelers win
These AFC North rivals face off, and the Steelers prove maturity and experience matters big in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield leads a spirited comeback attempt but comes up short.
(5) Chargers at (4) Titans: Chargers win
First upset of Wild Card weekend is the Chargers upsetting the Titans. Again, the Chargers go on the road and take care of an only somewhat decent division winner.
NFC:
(6) Bears at (3) Falcons: Falcons win
Yet again Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky struggle to win a playoff game. But this time is on the road in a tough environment in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Julio Jones and Matt Ryan's air attack is too much for the Bears.
(5) Seahawks at (4) Eagles: Seahawks win
The battle of the two blue/green birds. The Hawks come out on top late thanks to the defense making a big stand. Eagles fans start to wonder if Carson Wentz can win a playoff game.
DIVISIONAL ROUND
AFC:
(5) Chargers at (1) Chiefs: Chiefs win
I like the Chargers a lot, but they'll be hard-pressed to win at Arrowhead Stadium in January. They got blown out by the Patriots who were just barely able to do it last year.
(3) Steelers at (2) Patriots: Patriots win
The Steelers are still a very solid team, but are nowhere near dynamic or great enough to beat the Patriots on the road in the playoffs. Terrific Tom again makes it to the AFC Championship game.
NFC:
(5) Seahawks at (1) Rams: Rams win
I hate to say it... but Rams take it. I just don't think the Hawks have enough experienced players to win a playoff game against the Rams, especially on the road. In the two divisional matchups between Western division rivals, the home team comes out on top each time.
(3) Falcons at (2) Vikings: Falcons win
I hate to say it, but Vikings fans are so accustomed to heartbreak this should come as no surprise. They probably lose in heartbreaking fashion here in some fashion.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
AFC:
(2) Patriots at (1) Chiefs: Chiefs win
In a rematch of last year's Conference Championship Game, the Chiefs come out on top this time to finally claim the Lamar Hunt trophy. I'd expect a close game yet again, but this time luck swinging in the Chiefs' favor.
(3) Falcons at (1) Rams: Rams win
In another playoff rematch (from 2 years ago), the Rams get revenge from that loss to claim the George Halas trophy. The Falcons put up a tough fight, but ultimately come up short as both #1 seeds make it to the Super Bowl... again.
SUPER BOWL LIV: Chiefs vs. Rams: Chiefs win
In what will be one of the most entertaining Super Bowls ever, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs come out on top to claim the Lombardi trophy. The Rams, meanwhile, become this generation's Buffalo Bills of the 90s as they lose their second Super Bowl in a row.
So my Super Bowl pick is Rams vs. Chiefs, with the Chiefs coming out on top. Who will win the awards? Let's find out:
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Offensive Player: Patrick Mahomes
Defensive Player: Darius Leonard
Coach: Andy Reid
Offensive Rookie: N'Keal Harry
Defensive Rookie: Devin Bush
Comeback Player: Carson Wentz
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Thursday, May 9, 2019
Over/Under Wins for Each NFL Team
Arizona Cardinals: 5.5 wins
Prediction: More
New head coaches with new QB's tend to do better than people expect because people don't have game tape or a game plan for them. Expect Murray to have a modicum of success. I'll say 6 or 7 wins.
Atlanta Falcons: 9 wins
Prediction: Less
Hard to say. The Falcons certainly have talent, but they don't always play to their ability or they suffer from injuries. I almost said the same, but they just haven't been the same since their SB loss. I'll say less. 8 wins.
Baltimore Ravens: 8 wins
Prediction: Less
Lamar Jackson is taking a slight step back in his sophomore season. They also lost Weddle, Suggs, and Moseley. None of those guys are easy to replace. I'll say a down season for the black birds. 7 wins
Buffalo Bills: 6.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I predict Josh Allen will be among the three sophomore QB's (Jackson and Rosen the others) who doesn't really take a step forward in year 2. He's gonna find out it's extremely tough to win in Buffalo. 4 or 5 wins.
Carolina Panthers: 8 wins
Prediction: More
I once watched a Jon Bois video (If you haven't heard of him, look him up on YouTube, he's AMAZING) about the parity of NFL teams. It ranked how consistent teams are year to year with their win totals. Carolina was dead last. Meaning, they go from a bad season to a good season to a bad season, etc. They had a fairly down year last year so I expect better things this year. 9 wins.
Chicago Bears: 9.5 wins
Prediction: Less
Teams are going to figure out Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky. They're still a decent team, but won't live up to last year's run. 8 or 9 wins.
Cincinnati Bengals: 6 wins
Prediction: Same
I honestly don't know. I haven't watched the majority of a Bengals game in so long. They could be awful, but I won't say that. 6 wins is good.
Cleveland Browns: 9 wins
Prediction: Less
To go from a winless season to just two years later predicted to have the most wins in your division? That's some turnaround. Too bad for the Browns it won't be THAT fast of a turnaround. They'll be improved and be more fun to watch, but will be too inconsistent and may have too many big ego's (at least on offense). 8 wins.
Dallas Cowboys: 8.5 wins
Prediction: More
Dallas is one of those fairly inconsistent teams. They find it hard to string together back-to-back playoff seasons. They'll do it this year. They've got the best young core of players in the NFL. 10 wins or so.
Denver Broncos: 7 wins
Prediction: More
Odds are either the Chiefs or Chargers take a step back this year (or both). When that happens, the teams behind them generally do better, it's just how it works in the NFL. I see the Broncos as around a .500 team, so 8 wins.
Detroit Lions: 7 wins
Prediction: Less
They unfortunately play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, the young and up-and-coming Bears, and the well-constructed Vikings. Someone's gotta lose a bunch of games. 5 or 6 wins
Green Bay Packers: 9.5 wins
Prediction: Less
A lot of people on the post which inspired this said the Packers had too many predicted wins. I'd have to agree. First year head coach and too many new faces. Will take a year to adjust. 7 or 8 wins.
Houston Texans: 8.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I like Deshaun Watson, but I don't like the Texans as an organization. Offense will struggle without a ton of help. 7 or 8 wins
Indianapolis Colts: 9.5 wins
Prediction: More
I think Indy will prove they're in it for the long haul. They won't be quite as dominant as some of those Peyton Manning teams from the 2000s but still will be quite good. 10-12 wins
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8 wins
Prediction: Less
Nick Foles has only had success in his career in Philly under a keen offensive mind. There's no way him alone can take the Jaguars back to a winning record... right? 7 wins, give or take.
Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 wins
Prediction: Less
Maybe Patrick Mahomes is the next elite quarterback. Hard to say. But the Chiefs more than likely won't have Tyreke Hill due to his off the field issues. They don't have a running back with Kareem Hunt's talent. Moreover, their defense went through a TON of turnover. They'll still be good, but not THAT good. 9 or 10 wins.
Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 wins
Prediction: More
This was one of the toughest calls for me. I could see it going either way. On one hand, the Chargers aren't an organization known for sustaining success. But on the other hand, they have one of the best young rosters in the NFL. I'll say more, but I'm not entirely sure. 10 wins.
Los Angeles Rams: 10.5 wins
Prediction: Less
You heard it here first, I am predicting a Super Bowl hangover for these guys. One, the division as a whole will be tougher, and two, they're playing another first place schedule. Can't see them being awful, but they take a step back. I hate calling injuries... but they might suffer a significant one. 8 wins.
Miami Dolphins: 5 wins
Prediction: More
Just when you think the "Fins" are gonna have a "tank" year, they go out and trade for Josh Rosen. They still have a few talented youngsters. I can see them competing yet again to get near .500. 6 or 7 wins
Minnesota Vikings: 9 wins
Prediction: Same
I'm sure Kirk Cousins is pretty peeved with all the talk of him not living up to his contract. But I think he'll settle in, now that he's in a system for a 2nd year. I don't see the Vikings quite doing as well as 2017, but they should be just as good or better than last year. I'll say same, maybe one win more.
New England Patriots: 11 wins
Prediction: More
Ugh, these guys again. At what point does winning become boring? I think the Dolphins will still be decent and I see the Jets improving, but they still won't match up to these Goliaths. 12 or 13 wins.
New Orleans Saints: 10.5 wins
Prediction: Less
If I had to bet real money on one of these predictions, it would be this one. They're coming off back-to-back heartwrenching playoff losses. They lost quite a few players, notably their starting center Max Unger. And their division is going to be TOUGH to win in, with improvements expected from all. 7 to 9 wins.
New York Giants: 6 wins
Prediction: Less
I honestly feel bad for Giants fans. Their GM Dave Gettleman just makes moves that don't make sense. They finally draft a QB of the future at #6 overall, and he could've been had in the second round. He'll be another Blake Bortles or Christian Ponder. And they're not a very complete team, still. 5 wins.
New York Jets: 7 wins
Prediction: More
Sam Darnold SHOULD take a big step forward in year 2. Two years ago Goff came onto the scene. Last year it was Mahomes and Trubisky. Who will it be this year? Best bet is Darnold. They also added a bunch of talent, a lot on defense. They'll be a borderline wild card. 8 or 9 wins.
Oakland Raiders: 6.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I'm starting to feel this "experiment" with Jon Gruden as coach and Mike Mayock as GM won't turn out well. Too much flash, not enough sizzle. Gruden's gonna realized Derek Carr may not be THE guy after all. 5 or 6 wins.
Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I could be wrong but I'm in the minority thinking the Cowboys will win the division and not the Eagles. I'm fearing Carson Wentz may be one of those guys that can just never stay fully healthy. They'll be good because the talent's there, but not good enough. 8 or 9 wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 wins
Prediction: More
If there's one division I think is overrated, it's the AFC North. And not because of the Steelers (although they missed the playoffs last year). As I said earlier, I expect the Ravens to have a down year and the Browns won't be as good as they look on paper. As for the Steelers, they won't miss the playoffs two years in a row, and without the distraction of Antonio Brown they just play hard, distraction-free football.
San Francisco 49ers: 8 wins
Prediction: Less
This could go either way. Depends on the luck they have. Last year they were not lucky (as I predicted), even though most predicted them to succeed. So as long as Garropolo stays healthy, they should be decent. But the problem is I don't think Garropolo is that great of a QB; he still hasn't proven much. 7 wins.
Seattle Seahawks: 8.5 wins
Prediction: More
This could be a long one. I think this year's team has the best all around depth in years. Sure, we lost Baldwin and Clark and Thomas, but we've filled in a ton of holes with draft picks (Metcalf, Collier, Blair) and free agents (Iupati, Ansah, Taylor, Myers). Depending on how the rest of the division does, the Hawks could very well win it (even though a lot are predicting us to battle Arizona for 3rd!). The Hawks have a great blend of young players with veteran presences. 9 to 11 wins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I debated on this one. When it came down to it, I don't think the Bruce Arians experiment will work. I think Jameis is a lost cause and they play in a tough division. I hate to say it, but I think the next team to have 2 or fewer wins will be the Buccaneers. Although I don't necessarily think it will be next season. 4-6 wins.
Tennessee Titans: 8.5 wins
Prediction: Less
They're a tough team that's not easy to beat. However, they just don't have that player that can take over a game, or that player that can make a few clutch plays late. I'm mainly referring to their QB, but other players as well. They won't roll over, but they won't go on any winning streaks, either. 7 or 8 wins.
Washington Redskins: 6 wins
Prediction: More
Boy, when are the Redskins going to get it together? Maybe Haskins will end up being their guy. I'll bet money he gets some starts this year, and he could even do well. I could see them stealing some wins. 7 wins.
Monday, September 3, 2018
My Extensive 2018 NFL Predictions!
I have divided this up into FOUR parts. First part is Ten Surprising predictions. These are predictions I like to make each year that only have a small chance of happening in hindsight, but last year I got 4/10 right. The one I was most proud of getting was the Seahawks having a better road record than home record. I also got right that a well-respected coach got fired before season’s end, that every division winner would have a better record than every wild card team, and that the AFC South would have a wild card team.
The second part will be my predicted records for each NFL team. Again, I made sure that all team records add up to a total of 256-256. The third part is my predictions for each Seahawk’s game, and what I expect to happen in each one. And lastly, I will predict the NFL playoffs, predict my Super Bowl matchup and ultimate Super Bowl Champion, as well as hand out the end-of-the-year awards.
Firstly, though, is my ten surprising predictions for the 2018 season:
1. The San Francisco 49ers will NOT have the rousing success everyone thinks they will this year, and they will lose more than they win.
The 49ers are everyone’s dark horse team for 2018, but I don’t think they will be much, if it all better this year. One, I don’t think Jimmy Garoppolo is as good as everyone thinks. He was a second round and not a first round pick for a reason. He also is dating a porn star and has already signed his lucrative contract, so he doesn’t have too much more to play for. Also, aside from Richard Sherman, the 49ers didn’t add a whole lot in the offseason. I think expectations will be too high and they will go 7-9 at best.
Well, I was right. But it wasn't all because they weren't ready. Most blame could be pointed to the Jimmy Garoppolo season-ending injury. However, I was right, so that's one.
2. No team will lose 13 or more games in 2018
The Browns have been the worst team the last two seasons, but with most expecting them to improve greatly and win a handful of games, there may not be THAT bad of a team this year. I predict the worst team will go 4-12 in a very competitive league.
I was SOOO close on this one! Only one team lost 13 or more games, and it was the Arizona Cardinals, and they lost 13.
3. The team that finishes with the worst record (or tied for worst record) in 2018 will have had a winning record in 2017.
Speaking of the worst record in the NFL, I’m not going to say who (you’ll have to see below), but the team that finishes with the worst record (and thus gets the #1 overall pick) will be a team that had a winning record in 2017. That is always a surprise to see. It doesn’t have to be the team I picked for this to be right, just a team that had a winning record in the 2017 season.
Again, SO CLOSE. The Cardinals, who had the worst record in 2018, went 8-8 in 2017. Figures.
4. The AFC representative in the Super Bowl won’t be the Patriots. Or the Steelers. In fact, it will be a team who hasn’t made it to the Super Bowl this millennium.
I think the AFC is due for a new Super Bowl contender. They haven’t had a team represent their conference minus Peyton Manning and Tom Brady since the Ravens made it in 2012. And they haven’t had a team win the Super Bowl that hadn’t already this millennium since the Colts in 2007.
Welp. I may have predicted the Patriots demise too early. For a while my prediction looked good as the Kansas City Chiefs would've made this prediction correct, but they came up so close in the AFC Championship.
5. The Seahawks AGAIN finish with a better road record than home record
I can make the same prediction two years in a row, can’t I? It’s my predictions. Just looking at the Seahawks schedule, I’ve noticed most of their tough non-divisional opponents (Dallas, GB, Minnesota, Kansas City) are at home while they face their easier divisional counterparts on the road (Oakland, Denver, Detroit, Chicago). It would be surprising for this anomaly to happen two years in a row for the Seahawks, but I think it will indeed happen again.
Not this time. The Seahawks lost winnable road games (San Francisco, Denver) and won some home games against decent opponents (Minnesota, Kansas City, Green Bay).
6. Neither team in the Super Bowl will have multiple Super Bowl wins
I think we’re going to see a Super Bowl with semi-inexperienced teams. There are plenty of teams with one or no Super Bowl titles (20 to be exact), but it’s not too likely that both Super Bowl participants will be like that. So that means no Patriots, no Steelers, no Packers.
If it was any matchup from the conference championship games OTHER than the Patriots, this would have been correct. The Rams, Saints, and Chiefs all have one Championship. Damn Patriots.
7. Among QB’s in their rookie or sophomore seasons, Mitch Trubisky will have the best (or tied for best) record
There are a lot of new and young faces at QB in the NFL. There were five rookie QB’s taken in the first round of this year’s draft, plus Mahomes in KC and Trubisky in Chicago will be playing their first full seasons. I expect Trubisky among all of those QB’s to have the best record as a starter or tied for the best.
Second one correct! He tied with Mahomes of the Chiefs for best record among first or second year QB's. I didn't foresee Mahomes's success but I saw the Bears making a run.
8. The AFC will have multiple divisions with only one team with a winning record.
Anyone paying attention to the NFL the past few years may have noticed most of the talent resides in the NFC. The NFC has more talented QB’s and better defenses. Therefore, I think there will be a couple divisions in the AFC with only one winning team. There will be a lot of sub-par AFC teams.
Only one division, I'm afraid. The AFC East only had one. The next closest was the AFC North, where the Steelers were second best at 9-6-1.
9. The Offensive Rookie of the Year won’t be one of the five QB’s drafted in the first round. It won’t even be Saquon Barkley.
I’m not positive on who it is, but I don’t see any of the first-round QB’s having rousing success in their first season (at least not enough to win Offensive ROY). I also don’t see a ton of success for Saquon Barkley, the first running back drafted. It will either be a QB drafted in the 2nd round or later, a different running back, or a different position altogether. Usually the OROY is a top QB chosen or the best running back, but it won’t be this year.
It was Saquon Barkley. I knew I was going out on a limb. The runner up was Baker Mayfield and he wouldn't have made my prediction correct, either.
10. No team will win more than 12 games, and there won’t be more than one team per conference with 12 wins.
There is a ton of parity in the NFL (especially the NFC), and I expect a lot of competitiveness, few blowouts, and a lot of upsets in the league this season. Therefore, there won’t be a team that runs away with its conference, and the most any team will win is 12 games, and there won’t even be two teams that do that in a conference. Maybe one per.
Oops. The Saints AND Rams both won 13, and they are both in the NFC. The Chiefs also won 12 in the AFC. Oh wells.
So after those ten bold predictions, you might have some idea as to how the divisions and records shape up. Here we go, with some comments on each division:
* = Wild Card
AFC EAST
1. Patriots: 10-6
2. Jets: 8-8
3. Dolphins: 6-10
4. Bills: 5-11
Comment: The Patriots have a rebuilt offensive line and very inexperienced receivers, so they’ll take a minor step back more than likely. But in a weak division, they’ll recapture the AFC East crown barring major injuries. The Jets should be competitive even though they are starting a 21-year-old rookie in Sam Darnold. The Fins, however, keep losing stars and Tannehill has a huge uphill climb to make coming back from injury. The Bills have decided to start Nathan Peterman Week 1, and there’s little chance that goes well.
AFC NORTH
1. Steelers: 12-4
2. Ravens: 8-8
3. Browns: 6-10
4. Bengals: 5-11
Comment: The Steelers beat up on their division, which frankly, I don’t see much competitiveness in outside of the Steel City. The Ravens do OK but may not play well enough for their head coach to keep his job. The Browns get off to a decent start and hover around .500 but suffer many losses in late November and December. The Bengals crash and burn, not being able to play complete and disciplined football.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans: 10-6
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-6*
3. Indianapolis Colts: 9-7*
4. Tennessee Titans: 4-12
Comment: This should be one of the more competitive divisions in football and in my opinion, one of the most entertaining. The Texans get Watson back and he’ll be out to prove he’s no fluke. The Jags are out to prove last year was not a fluke themselves, and they should still be hungry after last year’s AFC Championship loss. The Colts get Luck on their side and become more competitive, but Luck will take some time readjusting to NFL game speed. The Titans have some new cool uni’s and a new coach, but I don’t like Derrick Henry as the sole featured back, and I have a bad feeling last year isn’t a fluke for Mariota and it will constantly be lingering in the back of his mind.
AFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-5
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 9-7
3. Oakland Raiders: 6-10
4. Denver Broncos: 6-10
Comment: The Chargers boast one of the best all-around rosters in the NFL and had a great offseason. The Chiefs still have a great roster themselves, but made a major QB change, and with Mahomes in his first season as a starter, they will have some hiccups along the way. The Raiders will compete but their defense and run game will struggle at times; Beast Mode will show his age. The Broncos will realize Case Keenum was a one-year wonder and must go in search of their future franchise signal caller.
NFC EAST
1. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6
2. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-8
3. Washington Redskins: 7-9
4. New York Giants: 6-10
Comment: The Cowboys play well and capitalize by winning a lot of games in-division. The Eagles, who struggled in the preseason, have a letdown season and Carson Wentz has a setback with his injury. They also struggle with too many players with big egos, such as Michael Bennett. The Skins will do moderately well with Alex Smith at QB, but struggle against the better NFC teams. The G-Men will realize Eli Manning needs to be replaced sooner rather than later.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers: 10-6
2. Minnesota Vikings: 10-6*
3. Chicago Bears: 9-7
4. Detroit Lions: 6-10
Comment: The Vikings and Packers should be in a battle all season long for the NFC North crown, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the lead changed in the last couple weeks. Aaron Rodgers, fresh off signing the largest contract in NFL history, leads the Pack and has an MVP type season. The Vikings just have too much talent to not win a bunch of games. The Bears and their new pass rusher Khalil Mack have a breakthrough season, but still ultimately miss the playoffs, but are optimistic going into 2019. The Lions become the odd man out in the division, as former Belichick assistants don’t tend to do well as head coaches (See Josh McDaniels, Romeo Crennel).
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints: 12-4
2. Atlanta Falcons: 10-6*
3. Carolina Panthers: 7-9
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-12
Comment: The Saints, perhaps more than anyone, should be seething after how last season ended, so I expect them to play their hearts out. The Falcons still have a good roster all around, and many expect them to make a playoff run again. The Panthers, however, don’t have a real reliable running back, and a defense that is slowly losing pieces, and they usually don’t have back-to-back playoff seasons, and I still don’t expect them to. The Bucs aren’t going to have Jameis Winston for their first four games, and even when he gets back they won’t be much better.
NFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Rams: 11-5
2. Seattle Seahawks: ????
3. San Francisco 49ers: 7-9
4. Arizona Cardinals: 6-10
Comment: The Rams may have acquired some headache players like Suh and Marcus Peters but have too much talent to not win the division. As for the Seahawks, you’ll have to wait until my game-by-game predictions for them below. You know they’ll do at least 7-9 but no better than 11-5, based on their positioning above. The 49ers won’t be as good as many people think because teams that are this hyped usually don’t live up to the hype, and they have a QB, roster, and coach that haven’t proven anything yet. The Cardinals should compete, regardless of their quarterback, but their talent just doesn’t match up to most teams in the NFC.
So there you have it for the regular season! Now on to the Seahawks game by game predictions. How will they do? Find out below.
I’m not doing scores, because there’s a very very slim chance they’ll end up correct.
At Denver Broncos: Win (1-0)
The Hawks come out fighting. The Broncos show they’re not quite there and Case Keenum struggles at times. The last time the Hawks won in Denver, it was 2006. So they are due.
At Bears: Loss (1-1)
I originally had this game as a win, but I changed it after the Bears traded for Khalil Mack. I don’t think the Hawks will have too much success against him and the resurgent Bears D. It’ll be a close and tough defeat. Possibly low-scoring as well.
Vs. Cowboys: Loss (1-2)
The 12th Man can’t help the Hawks overcome the Cowboys in their home opener. The defense has trouble containing Ezekiel Elliott and the running game never gets going against Dallas’ tough front seven, leaving fans worrying about how bad this season will end up being.
At Cardinals: Win (2-2)
Hard to say which QB will start this game for the Cards, but I don’t think it matters too much. Again, could be a low-scoring game.
Vs. Rams: Loss (2-3)
The Hawks start the year with two straight home losses, and people start to wonder if the 12th Man is losing its touch. The Hawks go into this game seeking revenge for last year’s embarrassment at home, and while they do succeed in making it a closer game, still ultimately end up falling.
At Raiders in London: Win (3-3)
First game outside of North America for the Seahawks results in a W. Seahawks fans show up in droves as there appears to be many members of the 12th Man in the UK.
At Lions: Win (4-3)
The Hawks, well-rested after their bye, air it out in a shootout against Detroit and come out on top. Matt Patricia and Pete Carroll, two defensive coaches, end up wishing their D’s had done better.
Vs. Chargers: Win (5-3)
This will be a tough matchup, but the Hawks will have gone into November without a home win. They won’t allow it to continue. This will be like the Texans game last year: close, exciting, and the Hawks come out on top at home.
At Rams: Loss (5-4)
The Hawks fail to get 3 games above .500. They always play the Rams tough in L.A., and after last year’s lucky win I don’t think luck is in their favor this time, as the Rams end up sweeping the Hawks in 2018.
vs. Packers: Loss (5-5)
Aaron Rodgers has too many bad memories at Century Link. The Fail Mary game where he got sacked at least a half dozen times. The loss in the NFC Championship game. He’ll be out to rid himself of those demons. The Hawks fall to 1-3 at home.
at Panthers: Win (6-5)
There was a period near the beginning of the Seahawks renaissance where the Hawks beat the Panthers three straight years, all games in Carolina. I think they recapture some of that old magic and win. I also expect the Panthers to disappoint in 2018.
vs. 49ers: Win (7-5)
This should be a loud and exciting game that I see the Hawks winning in close and dramatic fashion. Like I said earlier, I don’t expect the 49ers to be as good as a lot of people think.
vs. Vikings: Loss (7-6)
This might be the most important game on the Seahawks schedule, based on its position in the schedule and who they’re playing. But the Hawks offense does not get much going against the stout Vikings defense, and Janikowski misses a late field goal.
At 49ers: Loss (7-7)
This proves to be a devastating loss towards the Seahawks playoff hopes. But they can’t stop Jimmy Garoppolo this time. Not in Santa Clara.
vs. Chiefs: Loss (7-8)
Another devastating loss. Pat Mahomes airs it out and the Chiefs rack up points on a tired and weary Hawks defense. This knocks the Hawks out of the playoff race for the second straight year.
vs. Cardinals: Win (8-8)
In what is now a meaningless game, the Hawks come out on top. They provide some hope for next season, knowing they must fill holes on D and on the offensive line.
So the Seahawks finish 8-8, no playoffs for the 2nd straight year. A three game losing streak in December ultimately does them in. The defense is not bad, but they are inconsistent. The running game and offensive line shows marginal improvement. Luck just won’t be on their side this year. But how does the rest of the NFL do in the playoffs? Let’s find out!
AFC Wild Card Round:
(6) Colts at (3) Patriots: Patriots win
This was a common playoff matchup in the 2000’s between Manning and Brady. Now it is Brady and Luck (again) and again Brady comes out on top. And yes, the Patriots do NOT get a first round BYE.
(5) Jaguars at (4) Texans: Jaguars win
I really like Deshaun Watson and the Texans, but they are not the most complete team in the AFC. The Jags defense torments Watson relentlessly and secure a trip to the divisional round.
NFC Wild Card Round:
(6) Falcons at (3) Cowboys: Cowboys win
The ‘Boys finally shake off their playoff woes and give fans of “America’s Team” reason to be optimistic. They win on a bad call by the refs (let’s face it, the NFL wants the Cowboys in as many high-profile games as possible).
(5) Vikings at (4) Packers: Packers win
It's always exciting when these two meet in the regular season. Add that it’s a playoff game and… woah. The Pack come out on top in the frigid temps of Green Bay as the Minnesota offense can’t get anything going, while the Green Bay offense does enough.
AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND:
(5) Jaguars at (1) Steelers: Steelers win
The Steelers win the rematch of last year’s AFC divisional matchup. They will want the game more, simply.
(3) Patriots at (2) Chargers: Chargers win
The Chargers win, with Phillip Rivers having no flashbacks to the 2000’s when they lost to the Patriots in the playoffs. The Patriots just won’t have as good of a roster. Coaching and strategy can only get you so far.
NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND:
(4) Packers at (1) Saints: Saints win
The Saints win a close and exciting game between two of the game’s best QB’s.
(3) Cowboys at (2) Rams: Cowboys win
In a battle of Hollywood’s team vs. America’s team, the ‘Boys come out on top because they play slightly more disciplined and hard-nose football. The Rams start to wonder what it will take to get their team to win a single playoff game.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: (2) Chargers at (1) Steelers: Chargers win
Like I said earlier, the AFC will be represented by someone new. That will be the Chargers. They stun the Steelers fans who go home again disappointed.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: (3) Cowboys at (1) Saints: Saints win
In a battle of two underdog QB’s (Prescott vs. Brees), the wily veteran Brees comes out on top. The Saints crowd proves to be too much for the Cowboys. The Saints move on to their 2nd Super Bowl.
SUPER BOWL LIII: Chargers vs. Saints: Saints win, 37-34
In a Super Bowl matchup of two bad-luck franchises and two QB’s who used to be teammates, Brees comes out on top. This ends up being one of the most entertaining Super Bowls, with a late score or defensive stop in the final seconds. Your 2018 and Super Bowl LIII champions are the New Orleans Saints!
Finally, some awards to hand out:
NFL MVP: Drew Brees (finally!), Saints
Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Defensive Player of the Year: Joey Bosa, Chargers
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Calvin Ridley, Falcons
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Derwin James, Chargers
Coach of the Year: Anthony Lynn, Chargers
Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Thanks for reading all the way through if you did! I’m very excited for this upcoming season, even if I didn’t predict my Seahawks to make the playoffs. They still have the potential to surprise a lot of people and prove me wrong by making the playoffs for the 6th time in 7 seasons. Here’s to an awesome 2018 NFL season!