With my Seahawks in the process of hiring a new head coach, I'm more invested in the NFL teams hiring head coaches than ever. So, I thought I'd react and grade each head coach hiring, including the Seahawks', which I will go more in-depth on than other teams. In order, chronologically:
Patriots hire Jerod Mayo: B-
NFL Linebackers have done well as NFL coaches in recent history. Vrabel was good in Tennessee up until his last few seasons. Demeco Ryans did fantastic in his first year in Houston. Antonio Pierce did well as an interim coach (see below). This is what you call a very safe move. Mayo will keep the team from chaos, futility, and disorder, but I definitely think he may be a bridge coach. The roster is one of the worst in the NFL and one offseason won't fix it. Mayo learned from Belichick as a player and a coach, so for the players that remain it will be a fairly easy transition. Maybe, if they make the right moves in the next couple of offseasons, they can return to contention around 2025-2026, but that is my optimistic view for them.
Raiders hire Antonio Pierce: B+
Could they have done better? Maybe. But you had their best player, Maxx Crosby, publicly state if they didn't stick with Pierce that he'd likely request a trade. That speaks volumes. Pierce definitely seems like an excellent motivator, but we haven't seen too much of him as an in-game strategist or decision-maker. It'll be interesting to see. I could certainly see the Raiders as a potential wild card next year under Pierce. He's certainly better than McDaniels, and it's good to see Mark Davis learned his lesson.
Titans hire Brian Callahan: B
I'm always lukewarm on coaches who have never been head coaches before unless they have an amazing pedigree, but Brian Callahan has a few things going for him. One, he is the son of a coach and obviously learned a bit from him. Two, he coordinated one of the league's best offenses in Cincinnati, and even made Jake Browning look decent. But again, I am skeptical on new coaches, but as far as new coaches go, Callahan is a pretty darn good one.
Chargers hire Jim Harbaugh: A
Harbaugh has had success wherever he has gone as a head coach. He went from bowl success with Stanford, to making the Super Bowl with the 49ers, to winning a national title with Michigan. Next, Super Bowl win with the Chargers? Hard to be upset with this hire unless you're a Chiefs, Raiders, or Broncos fan. I can't give it an A+ because Harbaugh has been away from the NFL for a few years, and it has changed in that time. We've seen coaches away from the NFL game struggle on a return *cough* Jon Gruden *cough*. I doubt it'll be Harbaugh, but that is a possibility.
Panthers hire Dave Canales: C
I don't know why this hire doesn't sit particularly well with me. You have to give Canales some credit for helping revive the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Can he do the same for Bryce Young? We will see. Here's the thing: The Seahawks' offense in 2022 and the Buccaneers' offense in 2023 weren't exactly lighting up scoreboards, and had great receiver talent already in place that helped, and both teams barely snuck into the playoffs. Does Canales get this job if one thing goes wrong for the Hawks in 2022 or the Bucs in 2023 to prevent them from reaching the playoffs? And he was an OC for only 1 season. This is a boom or bust hire, so either Canales will join the ranks of McVay, Shanahan, and LeFleur, or he will get fired in a few seasons. Good luck.
Falcons hire Raheem Morris: D+
I can't wrap my mind around this. This is a guy who was in the Falcons' organization a bit over 3 years ago, and he was even their interim head coach after they fired Dan Quinn, and they easily could've shed the interim tag and made him full-time. Instead, they went out and got Arthur Smith, which turned out to be a mistake. Now they've gone full circle and re-hired Morris. I just don't get it. I think Arthur Blank, the Falcons' owner, panicked and hired the guy he was most familiar with. This is an incredibly safe and low-risk hire. But I can almost guarantee the Falcons won't do any better than a borderline playoff team under Morris, and possibly a weak division winner if the division sucks (like Tampa Bay this year). There's no way they'll do better than that. And more realistically, they'll likely hover around 6-8 wins, just like they did with Smith.
Seahawks hire Mike Macdonald: A+
A young coach being installed in a place with a support system and decent owners? That usually works out. The only time it really hasn't was with Brandon Staley and the Chargers, although you could argue the "decent owner" front. Let's hope we don't have another Brandon Staley, but something tells me we don't. I love John Schneider's willingness to go young, and I wonder (we will never likely know) who his plan B would've been. Macdonald had some amazing defenses in Baltimore, and he made stars out of Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey. I think he fits in very well in Seattle, and I, as well as many fans, will be willing to give him time. I'm betting we'll see a quick turnaround on our defense, but the offense might be a work in progress, depending on who he picks for offensive coordinator. I fully believe he was chosen due to the success his defense had against the NFC West last season, and JS is hoping he replicates that with the Hawks.
Commanders hire Dan Quinn: C-
His defenses have done very well in recent years, and I'll say this: we have seen coaches have success when given a 2nd or 3rd shot. Look at Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick (although, to be fair, DQ is no Carroll or Belichick). I can see why Commanders' fans would not be too happy. But hey, they poached him from a division rival, so DQ is certainly familiar with the opposing offenses in the division. The key to his success will be the OC hire and if they can get a star quarterback. Sam Howell is a fairly capable starter, but defensive-minded coaches need star QBs, which Howell is not. This hiring can end up being a success, but so can all of these. DQ will need to prove he can win without Kyle Shanahan as his OC.
Thursday, February 1, 2024
NFL Coaching Hirings Grades and Thoughts
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Ranking the remaining Seahawks head coaching possibilities
The Seahawks head coach search is winding down, and we should be hearing an announcement in the next few days. As I'm writing this on Tuesday the 30th, I wouldn't be surprised if I heard an announcement made before I finish this post. But I thought I'd rank the head coaching options from my most desired to the least desired, and talk about each. I am only considering actual possibilities, so anyone that's been ruled out (Ben Johnson... sadface) or is just a virtual impossibility (Bill Belichick) will not be considered.
1. Mike Macdonald (Ravens DC)
He's been called the "defensive Sean McVay", so getting him would be huge, since McVay is in our division. With Johnson bowing out, Macdonald becomes the hot commodity between the Hawks and Commanders. Unfortunately for us, he's got East Coast roots, so I think he's more likely to be the Commander's head coach. But, you never know. I've seen players/coaches choose teams that were further away from their roots because it suited them better.
Edit: We got our guy! I'm stoked. Glad to see he was okay with relocating to the west coast. If anyone is going to figure out how to stop McVay and Shanahan's offenses, it's him. His defenses beat both of their teams this year, and I wonder if that factored into the decision to hire him. Good job JS! Look out for my further thoughts in my other post where I grade the head coach hires.
2. Mike Vrabel (Former Titans HC)
The more I think about it, the more I like Vrabel. But... we haven't apparently interviewed him yet. Would we if we lose out on Macdonald? Possibly. JS has to explore all options. Vrabel won in Tennessee, and I would really fault an aging core and lack of talent as to why the last couple years didn't go well for them. He's a player's coach, being a former long time player himself. Hope JS gives him a shot if we miss out on McDonald.
3. Ejiro Evero (Panthers DC)
I guess? He's got a good defensive mind and his Panther's defense kept them in a lot of games this year. Their offense just stunk. The Seahawks haven't had a black head coach, so I would applaud that aspect of it. I know if he became our head coach I'd call him EE. I looked him up and all I see are other teams that want to hire him--as their DC. Not head coach. So he might not be it.
4. Mike Kafka (Giants OC)
I remember when he was a backup QB in the NFL. He was not particularly good. Why is he being considered? I have no idea. His Giants' offenses weren't particularly great. But I would love to have a younger offensive mind. If he wins the job, it must be because he has the right plan and will do things the right way. I worry about his leadership skills, but we wouldn't know until we saw it.
5. Patrick Graham (Raiders DC)
This is who I have felt for over a week now who the Seahawks will hire. Just a gut feeling. Again, would applaud the hire of a black head coach. I just wouldn't be over the moon about this, and it would be a very ho-hum kind of hire. But I'd be willing to give him a shot.
6. Dan Quinn (Cowboys DC)
Yes, he was our DC as well, but here's what I don't like: His only real success with the Falcons came when Kyle Shanahan was his OC, and he blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. What I do like is that he may be able to get some of his Cowboys players to come over, either after they become free agents or getting JS to trade for them.
7. Anyone else
Depends, obviously. The above (outside of Vrabel) are the only ones who have been reported to have had an interview. You think about the best units in the NFL, and a lot of them are headed by a failed head coach. If I had to pick one not on this list I'd love to see get a shot, I'd say Frank Smith, Dolphins OC. Or if I had to go on the defensive side of the ball, I'd say Jeff Ulbrich, Jets DC, who used to be an assistant coach under Pete Carroll. He'd be a lot like Vrabel, but unproven. Unfortunately, he wasn't granted any interviews, which is puzzling.
I'm excited to see how this pans out, and I trust in JS. I'll give whoever he chooses a fair shot (and not be calling for his firing too soon, lol). I might even update this with my thoughts if the guy we choose is someone I talked about on here.
Friday, January 12, 2024
My Thoughts on the Seahawks moving on from Pete Carroll
When the Seahawks announced on Wednesday, January 10, 2024, that they were moving off of Pete Carroll as their head coach, I was, to say the least, surprised. I knew Pete had built something in this organization that had never been seen before: A culture that kept players like Sherm, Kam, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Marshawn Lynch, and others coming back and visiting and lending their expertise to the current Hawks. Therefore, I really felt that when it was time, Pete would leave on his own terms. Instead, he was essentially removed as head coach. Yes, it came across as more mutual, but I'd be willing to bet that had Pete not accepted it, they would have been forced to fire him, and he would not have left on as good of terms. Instead, he will stay on in an advisory role. (Supposedly)
I understand why it was done. I think the main sticking point, the main reason it happened was due to Pete not being able to keep up with the modern game and compete against the younger coaches in the league. If you listen to his press conferences or interviews, you hear that he wanted so badly for the team to do better in certain areas (like stopping the run), but they couldn't. And it was not due to lack of talent. They weren't picking guys off the street or relying upon undrafted free agents. Also, Pete continued to struggle to come out on top against Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay's teams. He had way more experience and was twice their age, but more often than not, the Hawks would come off looking worse in the divisional matchups with their teams.
The next hire could not be more important. The Hawks have a lot of young pieces and could easily make a Super Bowl run next season under the right leadership. Alternatively, the wrong hire could lead to disastrous results where we could see this team head to a larger rebuild, a possible sale of the team, and a very uncertain future. The wrong hire could set off a chain of events that spell doom for this organization. But it could also continue the winning culture set forth not only by Pete Carroll but one of his predecessors, Mike Holmgren. We cannot forget the impact coach Holmgren had, taking a perpetually mediocre team and elevating them to occasional contenders.
Whoever they hire has to be able to enter and immediately command the locker room and garner respect. I don't think he can be too different from Pete Carroll, but he can't be too similar, either. If he's too similar, the players will simply think this guy is trying to be the next Pete Carroll and won't respond as well. However, a coach who is too different will be a bit of a culture shock to players like Geno, Tyler, DK, and Bobby (if he's here) and they won't respond well in that regard, either.
I don't want to get into the specific candidates out there. That's either for another post or maybe I'll evaluate each coaching hire once they are all done.
Honestly, I'm excited. The Hawks haven't had to actually search for a coach really in my NFL-viewing life. Jim Mora Jr. was the heir apparent to Mike Holmgren, and Pete Carroll was hired to replace Mora after he became available. There was never a real thorough process of bringing in multiple coaching candidates for interviews at that time. I'll be excited to hear who flies in for an interview. I'm sure some I'll be wishing they don't get the job and some I'll be wishing they do get the job, and some I'll be in-between on.
Time will tell. I'll definitely detail my thoughts once the hire is made. Whoever it is, the 12s will give their full support and hopefully he can keep the Seahawks as consistent contenders. GO HAWKS.
Monday, September 7, 2020
2020 NFL Predictions
The MLB season is only in it's third month, but the NFL season is less than a week away. Seems weird. That's what happens when a global pandemic postpones or cancels different sporting leagues.
I usually do fairly well with these predictions, so I will continue, going division by division, giving each team a predicted Win/Loss record. I'll predict the playoffs under the new seven team per conference playoff format, and then some predicted award winners.
I usually go game by game for the Seahawks, but I'm usually way off. The Hawks will no doubt win some games I predict them to lose, and they will lose a game or two (at least) that I predict them to win. Instead, I will just talk about the team briefly and what I expect from each position group.
So without further ado, the NFL win/loss record predictions:
* = Wild Card
AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills, 10-6
3. Miami Dolphins, 9-7*
3. New England Patriots, 7-9
4. New York Jets, 6-10
Summary: For the first time since 2000, Tom Brady does not enter the season as the Patriots starting quarterback. This is a huge opportunity for anyone else to claim the division, and with Buffalo being a 2019 playoff team, they have the best opportunity. I think they will be solid, if unspectacular. The Dolphins surprise a lot of people and make the playoffs, riding a win streak after switching to Tua at QB. The Patriots aren't awful, but they are a far cry from the team that won the Super Bowl a few years ago. That leaves the Jets as the odd man out. Sam Darnold does decently, but the defense falls apart and Adam Gase is fired.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens, 14-2
2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-6*
3. Cleveland Browns, 9-7*
4. Cincinnati Bengals, 3-13
Summary: The Ravens enter as clear favorites. Can Lamar repeat his 2019 regular season success? Odds are yes. The Steelers, being a (mostly) veteran team and getting their veteran QB back, return to the playoffs and play solid ball. The Browns barely make the playoffs, but only because the rest of the AFC is trash. The Bengals tread water but realize they like Burrow; it's just they need to get him help.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts, 11-5
2. Houston Texans, 8-8
3. Tennessee Titans, 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1-15
Summary: Probably the weakest division in the AFC (again). The Colts, with new QB Philip Rivers, claim the title. The Texans struggle a bit without many offensive weapons. The Titans realize they shouldn't have handed Ryan Tannehill that contract. The Jaguars, meanwhile, struggle mightily but are a fun watch with Gardner Minshew, and they win their first game in week 17 against a Colts team whose playoff position is settled at that point.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 12-4
2. Denver Broncos, 8-8
3. Oakland Raiders, 8-8
4. Los Angeles Chargers, 6-10
Summary: This might be the most surprising division I've predicted. The Chiefs are still clear front-runners, although as defending champs they will be the target of many. The Broncos aren't able to really make a statement as injuries and opt-outs hurt them. The Raiders have an up and down season and they are still left with many questions (Is Carr the future?). The Chargers bad luck rears its ugly head again (they've lost Derwin James to injury already again), and Tyrod Taylor is unable to do anything to right their sinking ship. Justin Herbert is given the reigns in the later part of the season.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles, 9-7
2. Dallas Cowboys, 7-9
3. Washington Football Team, 6-10
4. New York Giants, 4-12
Summary: The worst division in football again. The Eagles struggle with injuries and inconsistency again, but are decent enough to win the division. The Cowboys are fun to watch for the most part, but are clearly missing their once dominant O-Line. Washington is surprisingly good defensively, with Chase Young breaking Jevon Kearse's rookie sacks record. The Giants aren't awful, but Daniel Jones has a set back and the Giants start to wonder if he's the future.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers, 11-5
2. Minnesota Vikings, 9-7*
3. Chicago Bears, 7-9
4. Detroit Lions, 7-9
Summary: Hell hath no fury like an Aaron Rodgers scorned. The Packers as a whole aren't quite as good, but Aaron Rodgers clearly carries them to a few wins, as drafting a possible successor is enough to light a fire under him. The Vikings keep pace all year but fall a tad short. The Bears and Lions show flashes, but it's still not enough.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints, 13-3
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 10-6*
3. Atlanta Falcons, 6-10
4. Carolina Panthers, 6-10
Summary: The Saints prosper in times of uncertainty, so why not now? The Bucs with Tom Brady are fun to watch, but lose some games they probably should have won. The Falcons struggle with the Todd Gurley experiment, and the Panthers aren't awful in Matt Rhule's first year as coach.
NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers, 11-5
2. Seattle Seahawks, 10-6*
3. Arizona Cardinals, 8-8
4. Los Angeles Rams, 8-8
Summary: In the NFL's most well-rounded division, the 49ers come out on top again. They prove they are clearly too well-built to be a one-year wonder. The Seahawks, meanwhile, fall one game short of the division title (again) as they lose in week 17 to those 49ers. The Cardinals have some bright moments and surprise some teams, while the Rams falter down the stretch and are left scratching their heads.
Before we get to the playoffs, what happens before the playoffs every year? Oh yeah, "Black Monday". The day many coaches get fired. These are the following coaches I think will be fired by season's end:
Adam Gase, Jets
Doug Marrone, Jaguars
Matt Patricia, Lions
Dan Quinn, Falcons
And one coach resigns/retires...
Bill Belichick, Patriots
That's it. Usually it's closer to half a dozen, but I feel the rest of the coaches are either a possible future hall of famer (Reid, Carroll, Harbaugh), will have or recently had success, or will be given more time to turn things around (any coaches hired this offseason, Taylor). But yes, Bill Belichick retires after this season, not wanting to go through a rebuild.
Now the NFL seedings:
AFC
1. Ravens, 14-2
2. Chiefs, 12-4
3. Colts, 11-5
4. Bills, 10-6
5. Steelers, 10-6
6. Dolphins, 9-7
7. Browns, 9-7
NFC
1. Saints, 13-3
2. 49ers, 11-5
3. Packers, 11-5
4. Eagles, 9-7
5. Seahawks, 10-6
6. Buccaneers, 10-6
7. Vikings, 9-7
AFC Wild Card Round
(7) Browns at (2) Chiefs: Chiefs win
Would be a very high-scoring and exciting game, but the Chiefs come out on top, predictably. The Browns aren't good enough in the back end of their defense to stop Mr. Mahomes.
(6) Dolphins at (3) Colts: Colts win
In a battle of a veteran against a rookie, the veteran usually wins in the playoffs. That remains the case. Colts advance.
(5) Steelers at (4) Bills: Steelers win
The Steelers beat the young Bills to prevent them from their first playoff win in 25 years.
NFC Wild Card Round
(7) Vikings at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
In a rematch of last year's divisional round game, the 49ers win again, although perhaps not quite as easily.
(6) Buccaneers at (3) Packers: Packers win
Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady in the playoffs, does it get better than that? Rodgers prevails as Brady's old bones can't handle Lambeau's cold.
(5) Seahawks at (4) Eagles: Seahawks win
Yet another rematch from last year (and at the same locale as well). The Hawks prevail again, this time with a healthy Carson Wentz under center all game. Russ goes off, hitting DK and Tyler for long bombs.
AFC Divisional Round
(5) Steelers at (1) Ravens: Ravens win
Lamar Jackson finally gets his first playoff win in his third try. The Ravens entire team is too much for the team from Pittsburgh.
(3) Colts at (2) Chiefs: Chiefs win
The Chiefs are too much for the Colts, but it's fairly close.
NFC Divisional Round
(5) Seahawks at (1) Saints: Saints win
Will there even be a crowd (and therefore crowd noise) in this instance? Either way, I think the Saints beat the Hawks. I can't remember the last time the Hawks won a playoff game in a dome (if ever).
(3) Packers at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
The 49ers prove too much for the Packers yet again. I think this would be a closer contest, but the same result as last year's NFC Conference Championship matchup.
AFC Championship Game
(2) Chiefs (1) Ravens: Ravens win
The Ravens take control early by harassing Patrick Mahomes and claim their first AFC Championship since 2012.
NFC Championship Game
(2) 49ers at (1) Saints: Saints win
Think of last year's matchup between these two teams in the regular season. Exciting like that, except this time it's in the Saints' favor. The Saints return to the big dance.
Super Bowl LV
Ravens vs. Saints: Saints win
In a fantastic matchup, the Saints prevail, giving Drew Brees one more Super Bowl ring before he retires. He rides off into the sunset a happy man.
Well, if my Seahawks couldn't win it all, I'd be happy for the Saints and Drew Brees. Now some award predictions:
MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Offensive PotY: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Defensive PotY: Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers
Offensive RotY: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Defensive RotY: Chase Young, Washington Football Team
Coach of the Year: Sean Payton
Seahawks:
Well, I know they've made moves to try to reclaim the NFC division title (trading for Jamal Adams), but the 49ers are just going to be a tough hurdle to get over. Plus, the line play will prevent the Hawks from soaring to heights or even establishing any kind of long winning streak. Position by position though, here's what I think:
Quarterback - Russ will be magical once again. He will have to be decisive and quick in his decision-making, and sometimes he won't be. He'll be in the talks for MVP yet again, but without winning the division it will be difficult to even get votes.
Running back - Can Carson stay healthy all year? Will we see Rashaad Penny at all? How will Carlos Hyde be? All those questions will be answered, and I think we'll get a mixed bag. Carson will probably do another 1,000 yards or close to. Deejay Dallas may even see some time and surprise, prompting for us to probably move on from Penny.
Wide Receiver - This may be the best receiving corps we've had in my time watching the Hawks. We all know about Lockett. DK should take a giant step forward this year, and hopefully he can hold on to the ball a bit better. Dorsett should be like a flashier Jaron Brown. Will we get Josh Gordon back? Even if we do, he probably won't have a huge impact.
Tight End - This is an interesting group. As long as either Dissly or Olsen are healthy, we should be fine, although preferably both remain healthy. Hollister will make a good #3 or 2 if need be.
Offensive Line - It will be interesting to see. Can Duane Brown hold up still at his age? Time will tell, but he might miss some games I feel. I've never really liked Ethan Pocic, and I think he'll struggle. Damien Lewis will be interesting to watch as he's a rookie. As long as this line isn't god awful, the Hawks should be fine.
Defensive Line - Can they get some pressure on the quarterback this year, please? I don't care who. It sucks that another rookie lineman is again injured (Taylor), but hopefully Collier proves why we drafted him so high. I just want the D-Line to be adequate, that's all.
Linebacker - Man what a loaded unit. This group is so stacked Shaquem Griffin had to go to the practice squad. Jordyn Brooks will hopefully get some time to shine. Will Cody Barton get some time as well? We shall see.
Defensive Backs - My what a stacked unit they've become. Will Dunbar be able to start all year? Hopefully. And Jamal Adams... well I bet his impact will be felt quickly. Can't forget about Diggs or Griffin, two very capable players.
Special Teams: Jason Myers, don't miss gimmie field goals. Mike Dickson, don't shank any punts. Cover teams, don't allow any return touchdowns. That's all I ask. Thanks.
Well, that is it for my 2020 predictions! Hopefully the Hawks exceed my predictions for them. If the line play is decent and the rest of the units play to their potential, there's a shot the Hawks could get the division and a top seed. Should be fun to watch (despite no fans, at least for now).
Monday, January 13, 2020
Seahawks Position by Position Overview for 2019-2020
Quarterback: I think Russell Wilson had his best season. He carried the team more than ever, especially when injuries hit late in the season and we could no longer run the ball effectively. For this reason, he deserves MVP, because there is literally no other player that is more valuable to their team. There's really only one thing about his game I wish he'd improve, and that's throwing the ball away instead of taking sacks. He took a ton of sacks this year, which largely (but not entirely) can be attributed to the offensive line. But late in the year, you can see he occasionally held the ball too long and had opportunities to either find a receiver or throw the ball away. I don't think Geno saw the field at all this year, which is fine with me.
Need: 1
Grade: A
Running Back: Boy it is unfortunate Carson, Penny, and Prosise all went down within a few weeks. Before they went down, Carson and Penny were really doing well. The silver lining to them going down is that it gave us an opportunity to see Marshawn Lynch again and Travis Homer. Homer is a very capable back, and he could very easily be a #2. I think the Hawks consider trading Penny in the offseason. They don't have to, however. Seeing the injury bug hit this position hard will probably make John Schneider want as much depth as possible. I don't think Marshawn returns. And I think the Hawks finally part ways with Prosise. If the Hawks trade Penny, they'll bring in an undrafted rookie to compete for a backup role.
Need: 2
Grade: B
Wide Receiver: Lockett's not a true #1, but he doesn't have to be. With the emergence of D.K. Metcalf, I think the Hawks finally found a #1 guy. Boy was he a steal, and he should only get better. The rest of the group leaves a lot to be desired. Moore, Turner, and Brown all had just ok seasons. I think the Hawks only keep one, maybe two of those guys. I wish John Ursua had gotten more of a shot, but I expect him to in 2020 (Let him work the slot like Doug Baldwin did!). This unit was one of the healthier all year, which is mainly why Ursua was mostly inactive in 2019. I think the Hawks draft a mid-late receiver, hoping he can develop into a legit #3 some day. Overall, this group was criticized for their failure to get open at times, despite Wilson prolonging plays with his scrambling.
Need: 2
Grade: B
Tight Ends: Dissly gets hurt...again. If he hadn't, I think the Hawks win the NFC West and are still in the playoffs. He's a legit all-around tight end, but he just has to stay healthy. Jacob Hollister had his moments, but he also had drops and fumbles. I think the Hawks need to acquire a tight end for depth in case Dissly gets hurt yet again. Wilson to Dissly sure was fun to watch while it lasted in 2019.
Need: 3
Grade: C+
Offensive Line: The shakiest position group on the team, and it has been for years. They weren't as awful as past years, but injuries to Britt, both guards, and Brown really hurt this unit. The Hawks have to address this group in the offseason and make it a primary concern. Depth is needed, as well as a new right tackle, with Ifedi probably on his way out. The Hawks also need more youth at the guard positions and will soon need to find Duane Brown's successor.
Need: 5
Grade: C-
Defensive Line: I have to start out by saying boy LJ Collier has been a disappointment so far. He was mostly inactive all year, and I don't think he made any big plays. Acquiring Jadeveon Clowney was huge, but will he remain a Hawk? I like the rest of the guys in Green, Jefferson, and Reed. Ziggy Ansah was largely a disappointment. This unit did not get enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks in 2019, and it will have to improve somehow in 2020. Unless they expect Collier to live up to his first round status, they need to address this position in the offseason with a fairly significant addition.
Need: 4
Grade: C
Linebackers: Bobby was All-Pro and KJ was pretty solid himself. Kendricks was doing ok, but Carroll/Norton asked him to cover routes more than anything, which included covering wide receivers. Cody Barton had a very solid rookie campaign, and he could be given a starting role in 2020. Ben Burr-Kirven was only seen on special teams but did well. Shaquem Griffin was used in pass rush situations to some effectiveness. This is a group I'm not concerned about going into 2020, but they'll need better coaching next year.
Need: 2
Grade: B
Defensive Backs: Shaquill Griffin had his best season in 2020. He only got flagged once in the regular season, a remarkable achievement for a starting cornerback. Tre Flowers, however, got burned multiple times, got flagged a lot more, and missed more tackles. Most Hawks fans don't think he should be starting in 2020. Quandre Diggs was an excellent addition, and he reminded me of an Earl Thomas/Kam Chancellor hybrid. Bradley McDougald did well, especially with tackling. We'll see what role Tedric Thompson has next year after being hurt for most of the season. I expect more out of this unit as it is Coach Carroll's specialty, and I grade them harshly as a result.
Need: 4
Grade: D+
Special Teams: Myers was certainly shaky at times, but with kicking the way it is in today's NFL, that's honestly about average and the Hawks would be foolish to move on from him. Dickson had a decent season, although not quite as good as his rookie campaign. The coverage was mostly good all season, except for perhaps the Saints game. The return game left a ton to be desired, as I don't think we had an electrifying return all season. I think the Hawks have sorely lacked a return specialist for a while, and with Lockett getting older, he cannot be relied on anymore. The Hawks need to draft some kind of return specialist, maybe KJ Hamler out of Penn State. But otherwise, they are set on ST.
Need: 2
Grade: C-
Coaching: This was both a great and terrible coaching job by the Seahawks coaching staff this season. Being able to get to the divisional round despite a ton of injuries is at least partly indicative of a good coaching job. However, Ken Norton Jr's schemes were largely exposed and he was often left adjusting and trying to fix things, rather than being the aggressor and making offenses adjust to him. Schottenheimer had an up and down season as coordinator, and he did fairly well late in the year given the circumstances. Carroll had some questionable coaching decisions, most notably not going for certain fourth down attempts. I really think this defense needs a different leader, but I can see Carroll wanting to stick with KNJ, unfortunately.
Need: 3
Grade: D+
Overall GPA: 2.33 (C+)
Overall, this team did better than most people expected, and most position groups did a good job. If certain areas are addressed, mainly the lines and secondary, and we can stay relatively healthy next season, I can see this team doing really well. Coordinators aside, if you have good enough players, they will succeed. I think a certain strength and conditioning coach should be fired (Ivan Lewis), even though he was hired less than a year ago. There's a reason they call him "Ivan the Terrible". Let's hope Pete and John address the right needs in the offseason, and there are far less injuries in 2020.
Thursday, January 2, 2020
Outlook for Non-Playoff NFL Teams in 2020
Atlanta Falcons: I’m glad they held onto Dan Quinn. He’s a very good coach, and he probably would’ve quickly been given another head coaching opportunity elsewhere had he been fired, much like Ron Rivera. Their defense needs to improve greatly in 2020 as that is Quinn’s specialty. Matt Ryan continues to put up numbers, but doesn’t seem quite capable of carrying a team when things are kind of going bad, like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson can. I do expect them to improve in 2020 because of how well-run they generally are.
Arizona Cardinals: Not a bad first year for Kyler and Kliff. With a few more additions, they may avoid the NFC West basement in 2020. Unfortunately, the Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers are all well-built teams with elite head coaches, so it will be tough to avoid 4th place no matter how much the Cards improve. I like Kyler Murray a lot, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him take a Lamar Jackson-type leap in 2020, although I don’t expect the Cardinals to be as good as the Ravens have been in 2019.
Carolina Panthers: Firing Ron Rivera was a very questionable move, but I just think the new owner wanted a fresh change (and perhaps an offense-focused head coach). I'd give David Tepper, the owner, a grade of B for hiring David Tepper. He's a proven college coach, but will that translate to the pros? It didn't for Nick Saban, that's for sure. We'll see if Matt Rhule will want to work with Cam Newton at all, or find his own guy. I don’t expect the Panthers to be awful in 2020, but it will take another year at least to get back to playoff contention… I think.
Chicago Bears: The way the last calendar year has gone for the Bears has not been pretty. They lose in heartbreaking fashion in the playoffs and followed that up with a lackluster season. Is Trubisky really their guy at QB? Matt Nagy’s stubbornness to stick with him may cost him his job some day. In a tough division, the Bears will have to improve at least slightly in 2020 or changes may be on the way. I think Trubisky needs someone pushing him and someone Nagy could go to if he struggles. Perhaps Marcus Mariota? He would fit well in Matt Nagy's schemes.
Cincinnati Bengals: Having the number one pick can turn a franchise around pretty quickly (See Indianapolis in 2012). Is Joe Burrow capable of doing that? He’s not a sure-fire QB prospect like Andrew Luck, though. I’d say he’s more in the mold of a Matthew Stafford/Matt Ryan, and he will probably get to being in the top half of QB’s in the league. Don’t expect the Bengals to succeed right away, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Zac Taylor work some magic with their new QB, especially in his first year or two.
Cleveland Browns: So, they fire their coach and general manager, after a season in which the players didn’t perform up to expectations… ok. I understood firing Freddie Kitchens, but not Dorsey. It would take a terrific hire at both spots in order for this team to compete in 2020. They should be hopeful for an 8-8 or 9-7 season in 2020, with a legit shot at the playoffs maybe coming in 2021. Whoever they hire as head coach is going to have his hands full and has to be able to discipline his players and keep them in check. And Baker Mayfield has got to bounce back from his lackluster 2019 season, even though he will technically be on his fourth head coach in his third season in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys: Hiring Mike McCarthy is a very "meh" move. Yes, he's a proven winner as a coach, but he's very much like Jason Garrett and might not challenge his players or take risks when need be. Meanwhile, Dak had his best statistical season and needs to be re-signed to a long-term contract. I think things will work well in the first year because everything will be new to the players and they'll respond well to McCarthy at first. But after that, we'll have to wait and see.
Denver Broncos: Drew Lock is already the best young quarterback John Elway has found, although that is not saying much at all. I think Lock has a fairly low ceiling, but I see the Broncos as a team that could surprise people in 2020 if they draft right and maybe fill a couple holes. It will be interesting to see how Lock does in his first full season next year. As for Vic Fangio, he is constantly lauded for being one of the best defensive minds in the game, and next year he needs to prove it, or he might go the route of Vance Joseph.
Detroit Lions: I’m pretty surprised they gave Matt Patricia another year, but the Lions were playing really competitive football before Stafford’s injury. If not for a couple bad calls, they would have beaten the Packers in Green Bay, and they almost beat the Chiefs. Next year, this Lions team, provided Stafford can stay heathy, needs to compete and get at least near .500, or Patricia will be gone. I like their offensive weapons, and their defense isn’t bad, so if they can play inspired and healthy football, they will be a hard team to beat in 2020.
Indianapolis Colts: I’m sorry, but Jacoby Brissett is not a franchise quarterback. I do, however, think he makes one of the best backup QBs in the game. The Colts need to find someone to compete with Brissett for the starting QB job. They would be wise to draft someone, and Brissett could start while they learn, or they could go after someone like Teddy Bridgewater or Philip Rivers. The Colts were just instantly screwed in 2019 when Andrew Luck suddenly retired, and they still have a lot of good, young players. Once that offense gets its franchise QB, these Colts will be back.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Doug Marrone was one of a few coaches I thought for sure was getting fired. Nope. Instead, they fired Executive VP Tom Coughlin. They may forgive Marrone for this season because of the injury to Nick Foles, and he was the coach to lead them to the AFC Championship game just a couple seasons ago, but they can’t ignore how it seems the team quit on him in the second half of the season. If I’m being honest, I think the Jags might be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2020 and will get a top pick in the 2021 draft. Then the rebuild can commence with a new coach and QB.
Los Angeles Chargers: They’re in a weird spot. They have a lot of talent still, but an aging quarterback whose contract is up. They had perhaps the worst luck of any team in 2019, losing a ton of games by one score. If they are unable to find a legit QB for 2020, expect another 6-10/5-11 type season from them. Anthony Lynn seems to be a decent coach, but may fall victim to being the coach of a team in the middle of a transition at QB.
Los Angeles Rams: They were the only 9-7 team to not make the playoffs, so that’s something. But it certainly was a disappointing follow up to a Super Bowl appearance. Sean McVay and Jared Goff are safe for now, but what if they regress even more next year? They do play in a very competitive division, with the Cardinals looking to improve in 2020. Someone has got to be in last place. There is a major problem lurking in the future with this team: They mortgaged a lot of their future by trading away some first-round picks, and they have a lot of money tied up to a few players, so there is a possibility this team could see a major collapse in the next couple seasons.
Miami Dolphins: Boy they sure turned their season around. After starting out the year getting blown out by everyone, they finished the season with five wins, including beating the division champion Patriots in Foxborough. They will need to find their future at QB in the draft, as it apparently isn’t Josh Rosen. Fitzpatrick seems to be the starter in 2020 until their future starter takes over. Brian Flores, meanwhile, will probably be given plenty of time to turn this team fully around after turning the 2019 season around for them.
New York Giants: Apparently Pat Shurmur is a really good offensive coordinator, but not a good coach. They are struggling now to find a good coach since Tom Coughlin left. It is very risky hiring Joe Judge, who had never been a head coach anywhere before. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones started out great, but then kind of fizzled out. We’ll see how he does with Joe Judge in 2020, but I expect something similar to what we saw from Sam Darnold in 2019: Just not enough talent around him, and the offensive mind not be enough help. Their roster is also still lacking compared to their division rival Cowboys and Eagles.
New York Jets: Speaking of Sam Darnold, he looked good at times in 2019, but he is now third at best in terms of QB’s from his draft class, trailing Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Hopefully he can get some help on the offensive side of the ball, mainly on the offensive line. Perhaps Adam Gase isn’t that great of a coach as Peyton Manning says he is? Ryan Tannehill on the Titans sure seems to be doing better without him. I don’t have a ton of confidence in this team going into 2020 right now.
Oakland Raiders: For a brief stretch, the Raiders seemed to be playing some really good football. Perhaps a new environment will be able to motivate them all season long? I think they are headed in the right direction, but they certainly need to take a legit step forward in 2020. Derek Carr is definitely an above average quarterback, but Jon Gruden may want something more. I wouldn’t be shocked if they drafted a mid-round QB. Next season is pivotal for them; a winning season would be huge.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Big Ben should be able to play in 2020, but they have to find his successor and soon. In my “NFL Quarterbacks Who Will Get New Homes in 2020” post, I predicted they will draft Jacob Eason out of Washington. They’re not at code red to find a new quarterback, but the sooner (and earlier in the draft) they draft one, the better. Mike Tomlin did a great job in 2019 with what he had, and I expect them to return to form in 2020, as long as Big Ben stays healthy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Either they need to replace Jameis or get him to make smarter throws. That latter option may not be possible, however. They may want to go after a QB who protects the ball better, someone like Teddy Bridgewater. They’ve got a decent roster and a really good head coach, but it’s uncertain who the leader of this team is if not Jameis. Bruce Arians has done well with veteran quarterbacks in the past (Big Ben, Carson Palmer), so perhaps the Bucs will go after a veteran, maybe Philip Rivers?
Washington Redskins: What’s this? The Redskins making good decisions?! They hired Ron Rivera to be head coach and Jack Del Rio for defensive coordinator. That defense next year should be much better. As for their offense, well, they’ve got some pieces. They can’t rely on an aging Adrian Peterson anymore, and they need a legit QB. I don’t think that’s Dwayne Haskins. I predicted they might sign Jameis Winston, who I think could have success there, especially under Ron Rivera, who led Cam Newton to the playoffs many times (and to the Super Bowl once).
Before I conclude, I want to pick my top 3 teams from this list and bottom 3 teams. The top 3 teams are teams that I expect to bounce back and have good 2020 seasons and probably make the playoffs. The bottom 3 teams are teams I expect to continue to struggle and probably even get worse. First, the bottom 3, to get that out of the way:
3. Cleveland Browns
Unless they hire someone who is absolutely perfect (and let’s face it, we have no reason to believe they will), they will probably struggle again next year. Baker Mayfield doesn’t seem capable of carrying a team, and there are too many undisciplined players on this team. It could get ugly. Cleveland has a bad track record of turning hopefulness into absolute despair.
2. New York Jets
I just don’t trust the Jets front office. I don’t like Adam Gase as a head coach. He is one of the coaches I predict to be fired next season. And they play in a division with the Patriots, a good young Bills team, and a Dolphins team that’s slowly improving. It could go either way, but my gut tells me it won’t go the way they want.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Number one pick incoming? That’s my prediction, at least. They just don’t seem like their old 2017 selves anymore. They will regret bringing Doug Marrone back for another season. However, if they do get that number one pick, it could result in drafting Trevor Lawrence if he declares for the draft in 2021. Trevor Lawrence is talked about being the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck.
All right, and now for my top 3 teams to make a turnaround next season:
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Whenever they have an off season, they always bounce back. They are just too well-run of an organization to struggle for long. If they have a legit QB in 2020 (Big Ben, probably), they will more than likely be a playoff team. I think they could battle Baltimore for the division crown next year.
2. Atlanta Falcons
Hopefully Quinn can lead these guys back to playoff contention. With Tampa and Carolina having uncertain futures, and New Orleans being due for a disappointing season, the division could be there for the taking. The defense will be the biggest question. They showed flashes in 2019 (stopping the Saints offense in New Orleans for one), but will need to play more consistently in 2020, and I think they will.
1. Dallas Cowboys
I think the Cowboys players will be playing extremely motivated in 2020. What Jason Garrett was telling them and coaching them about was probably getting old and stale. But with a new head coach in Mike McCarthy, they could become one of the best teams in the NFL in 2020. I see them having a year like the 2019 Packers; new head coach brings fresh and positive results. They have a really good roster still, just needed the coach to match. It will also be interesting to see how McCarthy uses Dak and Zeke next year. He's never had a running back of Zeke's caliber.
Monday, December 23, 2019
Pete Carroll's Time May Be Up
Pete Carroll has never been known for being a great coach with in-game decisions. He challenges what clearly won't be overturned, he calls questionable timeouts at best, and worst of all, he is ultra-conservative and coaches as if he has a journeyman quarterback. Hawks fans have lost track of the number of times he has chosen to kick a field goal or punt rather than go for a fourth down attempt. He's earned the nickname "No Balls Pete" from many Hawks fans. In just this past Cardinals game I referenced, he sent out his field goal unit on a 4th and one from about the 32 yard line. But after the field goal unit got "messed up up front" (his quote), they had to take a delay of game and then punt the ball away. That's a coaching issue, and that's on him. But the point I'm trying to make is that Carroll time and time again won't let his star quarterback make a play on a 4th down attempt. Even when the Hawks go for it on 4th down (which is rare), he'll usually have Wilson hand the ball off, which the defense often sees coming and stops it. Compare that to the Raven's John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson, who in their game against the Hawks, John actually asked Lamar if he thinks they should go for a 4th down attempt. Lamar said yes, they attempted and converted with Lamar getting the first down himself. Pete instead will take the ball out of his quarterback's hands, whether that be in favor of a punt or field goal, or handing off to a running back.
Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are both perfect and horrible for each other at the same time. They're perfect because they both stay optimistic no matter what and have a same outlook on the game. However, they're also horrible for each other because Carroll restricts Wilson and doesn't give Wilson the opportunities he deserves. Carroll hired an ultra-conservative offensive coordinator in Brian Schottenheimer, and "Schotty" has largely restricted Russell himself. Carroll has always been a run-first or run-heavy type coach, but his failure to adapt to his star quarterback is costing the Hawks. Carroll and General Manager John Schneider have also failed to surround Wilson with much talent, especially on the offensive line. Since the Super Bowl years, they have still yet to put together even an average offensive line. Instead, Wilson has had to make due with a run-heavy offense and a below average offensive line at best in the five years since then.
Fortunately for coach Carroll, even if the Hawks season ends from this point on in the worst way possible (which would be losing to the 49ers and a first-round exit at the hands of the Cowboys or Eagles), he will be saved because people will point to the massive amount of injuries as to the reason the Seahawk's season, once so full of promise, ended so poorly. But I ask you to look at the Pittsburgh Steelers and their coach, Mike Tomlin. He loses his superstar quarterback for the year, shortly after losing his two best offensive playmakers to other teams. Tomlin also deals with injuries to his team's starting running back, next best receiver, and several other key players. They are still contending for a playoff spot. Think the Hawks would be contending for a playoff spot if they lost Wilson Week 2 and Carson for a few games? Heck no. The injury bug hits the Seahawks and Carroll does not weather the storm as well as Tomlin did.
The Hawks will lose to the 49ers. There is no doubt in my mind. The Hawks will probably play better than they did against the Cardinals, but may still lose by more than one score. The Hawks will then get a #5 seed, and may even beat the Eagles or Cowboys. But they will not beat the 49ers or Saints or Packers in the divisional round. This team is stuck in a state of "pretty good" and have been since Super Bowl XLIX. They're better than the average team because of Russell Wilson, but they can't get any better because Pete is holding them back. We know he can't draft well anymore, and I think he cannot be a Super Bowl-caliber coach anymore. Carroll's best fit is with a team with a great defense and a team built around the run. He can't afford to have money tied up to his quarterback. He'd be a great coach on teams like Chicago or Buffalo. But here, it's just not a good fit anymore.
Edit: Well, the Hawks did lose to the 49ers, but they also almost won. I am still convinced Pete Carroll needs to go. He is unable to get his guys prepared and able to start out strong. We'll see how they do against the Eagles in the playoffs. Technically, the Hawks are still in a rebuild despite still making the playoffs, but without being able to draft capable starters, it's going to be VERY hard to break through and get to a conference championship (or better).