SURVIVOR 47 FOUR WORD GAME

 Survivor 47 has had its premiere, and wow, what a shocking first boot (More on that later).  Like past seasons, I'm going to give each player remaining in the game (and the booted player) four words to describe the current state of their game, what they need to do, what I noticed, and anything that might stand out about them to me.  I'll then elaborate a tiny bit on that, especially early on considering I have a lot of players to get through.  

As always, I'll be starting with my lowest-ranked player, then going sequentially to my highest ranked player.  This first week is based off of my pre-season rankings from my other Survivor 47 post.  Let's go!

EPISODE 1 FOUR WORD GAME

Rachel: Smartly kept her distance
Andy tried to really bring in her in, and honestly, I don't know the full extent of what Andy was trying, especially that one time he seemingly woke her up to talk to her.  Is he interested in her romantically?  I doubt it, since she's married.  But Rachel smartly kept her distance from him, and they have an easy target should they go to tribal again.

Sue: Best positioned player--somehow
At least on her tribe.  She made bonds with Gabe and Caroline, and she seems to be in the mix.  She's the only other person to know about Gabe's idol other than Gabe himself.  I was quite surprised Sue wasn't instantly on the outs.

Anika: Leadership prowess a curse
Sometimes people are good at directing others, and Anika couldn't help but allow that part of her in the game.  Well, it got her a vote.  And she might be next to go after Andy, or hey, maybe even before.  She tried deflecting this at tribal, but it was a feeble attempt, in my opinion.

Sol: Wanted to see more
Didn't get a whole lot of Sol.  He wasn't the only one with only one confessional, but he felt like the most invisible player.  I was worried he might be on the bottom, but that appears to be Rome.  But I still think he's on the bottom of the alliance he's in.

Kishan: No strategic ability seen
At least not yet.  He just seems like a guy that's happy to be there and happy to contribute.  I need to see more.

Rome: Too hard too fast
My dude is digging, and not just for the idol.  He's digging himself an early hole.  He better hope his tribe doesn't go to tribal before he can repair what he's done.  I don't think we saw him fully get to the idol yet, so hopefully next episode.

Caroline: Not very memorable, unfortunately
She made a bond with Sue, and that's about it.  They seemed to bond over their mother-daughter relationships in their regular lives, which was nice.  But I need to see more.

Sierra: Well-insulated, terrible tribe
Sierra's pretty well-insulated on her tribe.  I think she would stay before Andy and possibly Anika or Rachel.  She and Sam are the most well-insulated.  I guess it was the right move to get rid of Jon, presuming Andy can help them in challenges.

Genevieve: Connection could doom her
We saw Genevieve make a connection with Rome, who is now on the outs.  We saw Jon go over Andy because Jon wasn't as good in challenges, apparently.  Well, Genevieve probably isn't as good as Rome.  I bet her name will come up if they lose, so she has to distance herself from Rome.

Teeny: Likable, smart, going far
Teeny was smart to want to keep Aysha in the mix despite Aysha being gone on the "journey".  Teeny also seems to be in with Kishan and Sol.  I think Teeny's the best-positioned on the Lavo tribe.  

Sam: Glue guy: Smart play
I like Sam wanting to be the "glue guy".  That's exactly what you want to be on your pre-merge tribe.  He smartly decided not to work with Andy and Jon, although he'll have to make sure if it's just the girls and him left that it's not him.  It shouldn't be.  

TK: Won some favor over
By getting the supplies on his own.  They may have edited it weirdly, but it sure seemed like TK came from behind to find the final key.  He seems to be a good challenge competitor.

Gabe: His idol a curse
I bet it'll be a curse.  I wonder if others will know about its power?  Even if not, he'll have a target on his back once he plays it once.  He almost for sure will go home without using it fully.  I like his play to get it, but now he's gotta work on the social game.

Andy: Almost worst first episode
What an almost terrible start for Andy.  I feel like 9/10 tribes vote him out after what he did.  Fortunately for him, he was on the one tribe that didn't.  But he's going to have to win them some immunities if he wants to make the merge.  

Tiyana: Our next worm queen!
So if I'm not mistaken, that's Jaime Lynn, Kendra, and now Tiyana that have eaten worms.  Hey, this is all I could really remember!  

Kyle: Needs more air time
Didn't see much.  Kyle seemed to make bonds and work well in camp, but that's all I remember.  He mentioned his small town with four traffic signals, but that's really about it.

Aysha: Volunteering almost bad call
If I heard correctly, it seems Aysha volunteered to try to win her tribe supplies.  Rome was right, not very smart to miss out on those first few bonding hours.  Fortunately for her, I don't think that'll hurt her in the long run.

And to our departed player...

Jon: Most surprising first boot
To me, perhaps.  Jeff hyped him up as a great storyteller, Andy was clearly set up all episode to be the guy going, and yet the rest decided on Jon.  Sigh.  He would've been a good narrator for the season.  Someone else will have to step up.  Fortunately, we have four other people who speak into a microphone for a living in Aysha, Gabe, Sam, and Rome.

As Jeff Probst says, "All right!" Time for my new power rankings.  I factor in a lot of things, like who I think has a chance of winning, who I think might be next to go, who is in a bad spot, etc.  And I share how far off they were from my previous ranking, which in this case would be my pre-season ranking, so definitely a few I moved a lot.  And without further ado, here they are!

17. Andy (-12)
16. Rome (-3)
15. Anika (+1)
14. Genevieve (-4)
13. Caroline (-1)
12. Gabe (-6)
11. Sol (+4)
10. Rachel (+8)
9. Kishan (+5)
8. Aysha (-7)
7. Sierra (+4)
6. Sam (+2)
5. TK (+2)
4. Tiyana (-1)
3. Teeny (+6)
2. Kyle (0)
1. Sue (+17!)

Biggest rise: Sue (+17!)
Biggest fall: Andy (-12)

I was way off on Sue, or so I think.  I thought she'd come off as more abrasive, but she's actually been sweet and welcoming to others.  Yes, she'd likely be a huge target mid-merge, but it's still very early.  Andy fell off with his disastrous episode, and he's clearly on the outs of a possible disaster tribe.  There's always a lot of movement early on, so expect a lot of movement next week as well.  See you then!

EPISODE 2 FOUR WORD GAME

Andy: Recovery was okay, considering
Andy could've spiraled further, but I think he recovered okay.  Sure, he could've kept the idol to himself, but he didn't have too many people on his side to help him.  Fortunately for him, there seem to be some cracks within Gata.

Rome: Too much for some
I can see why Survivor cast him.  But Rome is too much to handle at times.  Also, with him losing trust in Teeny for her showing Kishan his idol (box), does he have any close allies?  Is Genevieve even there?

Anika: Impending paranoia extremely likely
Anika was shown accusing Sam and Sierra of being a couple (WTF) and she seems like someone that's going to maybe be the next on Gata to go paranoid.  I don't have a great feeling about her chances with Sam wanting to protect Andy.  At least Sam included her on his idol find.

Genevieve: Invisible lady, not good
Genevieve was the only one not to get a confessional in Ep. 2.  Not good for her chances.  She seems like a forgettable boot, at best early merge.  We need more!

Caroline: Solid alliance, but underling
I believe Caroline will be perceived as Sue's sidekick rather than the other way around.  So it's good Caroline has a tight bond with someone, and she should definitely stick with Sue for a long time, but if she wants to win she'll have to betray Sue before FTC.

Gabe: Right call it seems
Gabe didn't have much of a choice, but he could've aligned with TK, Kyle, and Tiyana and taken out Sue.  But he would've easily been the #4 there.  Now, he's one of the two men who will be counted on for challenge strength.  He lost a shield, but he has people to work with.  And I think it was smart to play the idol in case of a tie.  He wasn't sure where Tiyana was going.  And, it gets the target off his back and he can always find another (Hopefully more stealthily).

Sol: Sifu of this season
Sure, Sifu really only had character moments, but we never really saw any strategy from him and he was the mergatory boot.  I think the same might happen to Sol.  We just aren't getting much.

Rachel: Puzzle gooddess--watch out
Not sure if anyone noticed, but Rachel killed it in the puzzle in the premiere episode in the very first challenge.  Then she kills it in the maze puzzle with the peg.  I think Rachel could be one of the best puzzle players the show has ever seen--up there with Spencer and Rob.  

Kishan: Being included, that's good
Kishan's lone "highlight" was Teeny showing him Rome's idol box.  It seems people want to include him since he's likable.  He'll just have to use that and start being a little more aggressive when the time comes.

Aysha: Quiet episode, slight worry
My winner pick had a quiet episode, but the red Lavo tribe basically all had a quiet episode, outside of Rome.  I do worry about her chances, but a lot of winners have had quiet episodes.  Erika, Gabler, and Maryanne all did.

Sierra: Will get targeted eventually
For being Sam's #2.  It may not be until post-merge, but I think she goes before Sam to weaken him.  Their bond will no doubt be seen by others, and I think Sierra will be a casualty of Sam's game.  Her choice on whether to turn on the girls when the time comes will be interesting to see.

Sam: Sloppy but effective game
Sam's playing a decent but sloppy game, pretty common among those below 27 years of age or so.  It'll be hard for him to win a FTC vote, and it'll be harder for him to get there.  For the most part, I like how's he handling his game, and yes, it's smart to keep Andy because otherwise he's the lone guy and clearly the #4 in the tribe.

Tiyana: Played with emotions, possibly
Tiyana said she wanted to play a game where she could separate her emotions from the game.  But she didn't, as she voted for someone in TK who she didn't like.  But it could also have been strategic.  Had she voted with them, it would've forced a tie, and if she backtracks after that, it only looks worse.  Likely smart move, but I worry this may be a sign of things to come for her.

Teeny: Trustworthiness the biggest key
Teeny lost some trust with Rome after showing Kishan Rome's idol.  It'll be hard for Teeny to win back that trust, but Teeny seems to have it with Aysha, Kishan, and Sol (it seems, at least).  Hard to say where Genevieve stands.  But I like where Teeny stands and I don't see Teeny going anytime soon.

Kyle: Huge blow to game
Losing your closest ally in your first vote is a huge blow to Kyle's game.  I can't remember any winners that has happened to, at least not in the new era.  He's got a long way to go to recover.  And with an episode where they went to tribal and Kyle still didn't have too much to say, I'm not feeling so hot about his chances.

Sue: Gabler type game coming?
I could see it.  Sue, like Gabler, survived the first vote despite their name being out there (Gabler threw his own name out there, but that's beside the point).  She has Caroline and Gabe like Gabler had Sami and Owen.  She'll have to lay low come the merge and strike when the time is right.  I could see it... but I worry about this tribe's strength without TK.

And to our departed player...

TK: Overconfidence a death knell
One thing that cost TK his game was his overconfidence.  He felt he had both Tiyana and Gabe (along with Kyle), when he had neither.  He also didn't vibe too well with his tribe outside of Kyle and him talking on the beach when Tiyana and Sue were trying to rest certainly didn't help.  Doesn't matter if you're the best athlete on your tribe--you have to have a good head on your shoulders.

New power rankings!  Clearly, there's going to be a lot of changes.  I have to consider screen time and which tribe may be going to tribal next (I don't think Red/Lavo is going next week, either).  It's going to be crazy.  Here it is:

16. Anika (-1)
15. Rome (+1)
14. Andy (+3)
13. Genevieve (+1)
12. Sol (-1)
11. Kishan (-2)
10. Kyle (-8)
9. Caroline (+4)
8. Rachel (+2)
7. Aysha (+1)
6. Sierra (+1)
5. Gabe (+7)
4. Tiyana (0)
3. Sue (-2)
2. Teeny (+1)
1. Sam (+5)

Biggest rise: Gabe (+7)
Biggest fall: Kyle (-8)

This is basically broken up into sections.  #16-14 are the ones I'm most worried about leaving.  #13-10 are the invisible bunch.  #9-6 are the sidekicks or people that aren't invisible but we need to see more of.  Gabe and Tiyana are outside winner contenders (would need to do a lot more) with #3-1 being my winner contenders at the moment.  Sam grabs the top spot after a 16 confessional episode (Wow!).  I know he had the idol, but my goodness.  It'll be interesting to see if anyone can hold the top spot for more than one week.  My thoughts are it'll be tough--I'm feeling like changing that spot nearly every week.  We'll see!

EPISODE 3 FOUR WORD GAME

Anika: Clearly her or guys
Anika went on a journey and lied to the tribe about being able to refuse to play and saving her vote, then confided in just the girls the actual truth.  Now, she said she's against Andy, but we can tell she's also against Sam, although they're connected through Sierra.  It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out if they go to tribal again.

Rome: Power saving him--temporarily
Rome's idol and now steal a vote are saving him for the moment.  But you know his tribe would turn on him, even Teeny and Kishan if they had full opportunity to.  He's really becoming a villain, something we haven't had much of in the New Era.  I'm looking forward to his downfall.  I just hope it's not at FTC and he's a zero vote finalist.  That's not satisfying enough.

Andy: Maybe create chaos yourself
Sure, there's some underlying tension in the tribe, mainly between Anika and Sam.  But what Andy could do is create even more tension between them himself.  The most common thing people have done is telling one person what the other said about them.  Andy could really put himself in the driver's seat of the tribe if he did that.

Genevieve: At tribal, still nothing
I feel like I don't know Genevieve at all.  She now has the fewest confessionals of the season, and three episodes in, she still has fewer than Jon got in his one episode.  Make it make sense!  Her tribe goes to tribal and she's barely a part of the talks.  We got affirmation of a core four, with two pairs (Teeny and Kishan, Rome and her), so we know she's still tight with Rome.  But that's it.  We saw her on the sit out bench looking for an idol/advantage, but I really can't recall much else.

Sol: Becoming quiet fan favorite
Killing it in challenges.  Providing a voice for the people at home.  Dude is quietly becoming a fan favorite.  I was really worried for him at the last tribal.  Now there's going to be a clash between him and Rome.  Will they even go to tribal again before mergatory?  I don't think they will.  But perhaps that rift will still be there at that time.

Kishan: Most level-headed member
If there was one person on Lavo I was not worried about in the vote, it was Kishan.  Dude has zero enemies, and even though he struggled a bit (along with Teeny), there was no talk of him name being written down.  He's level-headed and he's got a majority alliance.  He should at least make the jury.

Kyle: Longshot in current tribe
I hate to say it, but after what we saw in Episode 3, I worry about Kyle.  He tried to win Sue back over, but she didn't seem to want to budge at all.  She is going to hold a grudge against him for voting for her until one of them's out of the game, it seems.  And we know Caroline will stick with her.  So, he's going to have to get Gabe and Tiyana on his side, somehow.  Or just hope the four of them turn on each other.

Caroline: Still the number two
Don't know what else to say about her.  Caroline and Sue's bond seems pretty strong.  I believe it was Gabe saying if you have them you have two votes, but he really should be looking at it like they're two that won't turn on each other, so they need to be broken up.

Rachel: Again, carrying her tribe
It's largely gone unnoticed since no one has verbally spoken it on the show, but Rachel is literally carrying Gata in the challenges.  If not for her, they may have gone to three straight tribals.  This last episode, Tuku was ahead in the puzzle, but then Gata got to it and passed them at the puzzle stage, clearly thanks to Rachel.  They cannot vote her out.  Period.

Sierra: Fire clue in intro
I'm not gonna talk too much about the game for Sierra, but instead the intro/theme.  In it, I noticed a machete striking flint right after her name was shown.  Does she maybe go out in fire at Final 4?  I'm going to try to remember that for the future.  I think she could get that far, especially if she sticks with Sam.

Gabe: Needs a number one
Sue and Caroline are each other's number one, it seems.  Who is Gabe's?  Tiyana?  It's not Kyle.  I think he needs a number one, because even if he sticks with Sue and Caroline, they'll turn on him before turning on each other.  

Tiyana: Positive comment, purpled episode
Two things.  One, Tiyana was the only one to not get a confessional in Episode 3.  Not good.  Two, her comment to Kyle for carrying them was awesome to see, and basically the only notable thing she did this episode.  

Sue: Stubbornness could be downfall
It just seems like Sue is one of those stubborn... middle-aged ladies who once they believe something they refuse to go another way.  That's not particularly good in the game of Survivor.  I really hope she can get past Kyle voting for her and move on.  We'll see.  By the way, that was not Sue's "blood" in the preview for next week.  It was too bright and vivid to be blood; more like paint.

Teeny: Strategic leader of tribe
Teeny seems to be the one we hear most of regarding strategy and voting on their tribe.  That's good news.  Teeny is well-insulated and even though they struggled in the challenge, the other members in the tribe decided not to punish Teeny for it.  I still like Teeny's chances.

Sam: Bond will cause target
Way to go, Anika.  She let slip that Sierra and Sam are close, so their bond may be targeted at the mergatory or soon after the merge.  That's not good for Sam.  He'll have a lot of work to do to downplay his threat level.  Also, dude needs to try more foods, lol.

And to our departed player...

Aysha: Journey sunk her game
I honestly think her going on the journey sunk her game.  A foursome formed while she was gone and she could never fully recover.  It sucks.  And this is my second winner pick to not even make the merge.  ARGH!  Coincidentally, both have been African-American women.  I got too hyped up into thinking I was picking the next Maryanne.  Oh well.

New power rankings!  It's crazy how all three boots have been unexpected, from a narrative perspective.  We may eventually get a string of invisible players booted, but we're sure getting our money's worth for the players being voted out.  I might have to change things up.  Here's the list:

15. Genevieve (-2)
14. Kyle (-4)
13. Sol (-1)
12. Rome (+3)
11. Anika (+5)
10. Andy (+4)
9. Caroline (0)
8. Tiyana (-4)
7. Sierra (-1)
6. Gabe (-1)
5. Kishan (+6)
4. Sue (-1)
3. Sam (-2)
2. Rachel (+6)
1. Teeny (+1)

Biggest rise: Kishan and Rachel (+6), Also Anika (+5) and Andy (+4)
Biggest fall: Kyle and Tiyana (-4)

Yet another new #1!  Again, I have my rankings in groups.  15-13 are too invisible (Yes, even Kyle).  12-10 are chaotic and could go in the next vote or last until the end of the game.  Hard to say.  For 9-5, I don't really see a winning game for them, but it's not impossible.  4-1 are my winner contenders.  Yes, Rachel has entered my winner contenders.  She's very smart, and I think she could win over a jury.  If she gets a group and gets to the end, watch out.  Can't make her #1 yet, but perhaps if she has a good episode.  

AFTER EPISODE 4 FOUR WORD GAME

Genevieve: Out of literally nowhere
I'm sure most fans of Survivor were thinking, "Who is this chick?" as Genevieve seemed to come out of nowhere to make a move.  Good on her.  She wasn't happy with Kishawn throwing her name out, and she acted on it.  She'll certainly be jumping up a bit for me.  

Kyle: The next one skunked
The term "skunked" I take from Once Upon an Island and their podcast, and it means when a player gets 0 confessionals in an episode.  No one got skunked episode 1.  But Genevieve was in episode 2, Tiyana in episode 3, and now Kyle in this past episode.  That's never a good sign.  But maybe they're changing things and hiding the true contenders from us early.

Sol: Patience of a saint
Seriously.  How he didn't lash out at Rome, perhaps even physically, is beyond me.  I wouldn't have been able to restrain myself.  I know... physically lashing out at someone is a one-way ticket to getting ejected from the game, but Sol showed true patience and composure.  He even voted the correct way, realizing where the votes were headed.

Rome: Most villainous recent player
Rome went from annoying to straight-up villainous.  We haven't had a villain like this in a long time.  If there's a Heroes vs. Villains 2, he has to be on there.  His ultimatum/threat to Sol severed any chance they had of working together and he better hope Sol doesn't get an army come the merge.  I can't see Rome surviving long past the merge unless he gets completely nerfed and ends up being an afterthought goat.

Anika: "Breadwinners" not particularly smart
I believe(?) it was Anika who came up with the name for their alliance.  You don't really want to do that unless you're in control or the person who you share it with you trust 100%.  It just looks like you're flaunting your alliance.  You want to downplay it always.  Not a very smart thing to do.

Andy: Finale goat best case
Andy's becoming that lovable klutz that isn't threatening, which isn't completely bad for him.  But the down side to it is that no one will think he deserves to win if he gets to the end.  Think Owen 2.0, if you will.  I can see Andy losing at the end.  Also, smart of him to not back down with the amulet.  And this version of the amulet means he or Caroline or Teeny will be targeted come the merge.  Watch out.

Caroline: Amulet play surprisingly smart
Caroline didn't need her vote as much as the other two, yet she stood her ground.  If I had time to think after the scenario for the amulet was revealed, I would've thought Caroline would've caved, not Teeny.  But now she has a small target on her back.  But she did the best she could given the circumstances.

Tiyana: Lacking content since vote
First she was skunked and now she's forgettable.  It's not a good look for Tiyana.  Fortunately, Genevieve came out of nowhere to make a move, and Tiyana can too.  All I can remember is the Sue idol situation.  Good for her to question Sue and not really trust what she was saying.  But she and Kyle alone won't be enough to take on the other 3.

Sierra: Tension in the middle
Sierra is trying to play both sides, and she's starting to get a little heat or tension for it.  She and Sam had a bit of a spat over her telling Andy about her girl's alliance and not him.  Sometimes playing the middle ends up blowing up in people's faces (Sarah in Cagayan, most notably), so she has to be careful.

Gabe: Screen time down consistently
Gabe has gone from 11 confessionals to 7 to 3 to 1, dropping each week.  Not good.  But hey, at least he hasn't been skunked.  Also, I question his apparent blind loyalty to Sue.  I'm not sure I would be that loyal to her.  

Sue: Crazy side coming out
I think as the days go on, the lack of food and sleep is making Sue crazier and crazier.  Yes, she got an idol, but her covering it up was too funny.  Also, her telling Kyle(?) that she's 45 is hilarious.  I wouldn't buy that for a second.  I worry about her being taken seriously later in the game.  She may be a finale goat.  She's becoming like an older Carolyn.

Sam: Shouldn't have accosted quickly
When Andy told Sam about the "Breadwinners" alliance, Sam shouldn't have accosted Sierra so quickly.  He should've kept it in his back pocket.  Maybe pull it out when he decides to turn on the girls.  He could've used that against her later in the game.  Oh well.

Rachel: Puzzle queen reigns supreme!
Yet again.  I don't recall if they got to the puzzle third or second, but Rachel again got Gata in first with her puzzle prowess.  If puzzles were as common in individual challenges, I'd have Rachel pegged as a potential immunity challenge threat, but they are not.  One thing I just realized, the four words for this game have the initials PQRS, which is tough to do, get four in a row in the alphabet.  

Teeny: Down, but not out
Wow.  Not a good episode for Teeny.  First they cave quickly and lose their vote.  Then, Teeny is completely on the outs when Kishawn is voted out and Teeny loses their closest ally.  Yikes.  It's definitely something Teeny can recover from, especially if they rope in Sol and go against Rome and Genevieve.  

And to our departed player...

Kishawn: One tiny fatal mistake
You never want to casually throw someone's name out there, even as a fake target.  You don't know what they're capable of and how they might react when it inevitably gets back to them.  You almost have to play the game as if everyone can hear what you're saying, because no one keeps their mouth shut in Survivor.  

And now our new power rankings!  Crazy how the players who have been voted out I had ranked 4th, 5th, 7th, and 5th, the episode before they left.  Just crazy.  I have no idea who to put at #1... we'll just see how it goes.

14. Sol (-1)
13. Anika (-2)
12. Kyle (+2)
11. Tiyana (-3)
10. Rachel (-8)
9. Rome (+3)
8. Caroline (+1)
7. Andy (+3)
6. Sue (-2)
5. Gabe (+1)
4. Genevieve (+11)
3. Sierra (+4)
2. Teeny (-1)
1. Sam (+2)

Biggest rise: Genevieve (+11!)
Biggest fall: Rachel (-8)

Sam is back to the top spot, somehow.  I don't feel particularly comfortable with that, but it is what it is.  Rome jumps up slightly, but I'm still worried about the ginormous target he's painted on his back.  Genevieve makes a HUGE jump and she's become a dark horse contender for me.  And by the way, the rankings are grouped as such: 14-11: Longshots, potential upcoming targets.  10-5: Not the best winner's chance, but not an upcoming target, either (Or so I think).  4-1: Winner contenders.  Seems weird having Sierra there, but if she turns on Sam at the right time, I could see it.  

AFTER EPISODE 5 FOUR WORD GAME

Sol: Absolutely no winning equity
All of our winners in the new era (minus Gabler) have had winning equity up to the mergatory.  Not Sol.  He's done well in terms of being affable and patient, but hasn't made any moves.  I think he'll either be a mergatory casualty or an easy boot for the majority once they've gotten rid of the legit threats.  I hope the latter for Sol, but fear the former.

Kyle: Targeted for challenge strength?
We still haven't seen much of Kyle's social or strategic game since the TK vote, and that doesn't bode too well for him.  The same thing happened to Hunter last season, who was eventually targeted and voted out at final 9.  I think a similar thing will happen to Kyle.

Tiyana: Keep your mouth shut!
Tiyana only hurt herself by spilling the beans about Gabe, and then lying to him about it later, saying she revealed less than she actually had.  Ugh.  Did she not think Gabe would fact-check with Sue, a known ally of his?  I once thought of Tiyana as a Dee-type player... certainly not anymore.

Rachel: Cross tribal connections vital
After losing Anika, Rachel's connections she made at the reward will be extremely important for her survival in the game.  She made connections with Teeny and Caroline, and they'll have to band together.  If the Tuku tribe comes together and brings in Rachel and Teeny, that would be enough for majority.  Of course, stupid mergatory always has to split them up.

Rome: More human side showing
Wow, he's not complete evil! (Lol JK).  Rome showed emotion after winning immunity, which was a bit surprising to see from him.  Also, I think he handled the chaos after tribal fairly well.  He's still not trusting of Teeny, which is fine.  But he'll have to bond with players on other tribes to get far.

Caroline: Becoming more vocal presence
I think?  Caroline being on the winning reward team helped her build cross-tribal connections, and I'd argue she did the best of almost anyone there.  She has Sue, and Gabe through Sue, plus connections now to Teeny and Rachel.  Not bad.

Andy: Brilliant play, underestimated completely
Andy setting up the "Breadwinners" to feed him a fake plan was brilliant.  Typically, players won't expect to be fed a fake plan, but he was.  He then acted perfectly up until the vote, not acting too desperate, but desperate enough to fool Anika and Rachel.  And in the days leading up to the vote, he proved to Sierra and Sam his loyalty and just did it brilliantly.  How far he's come.

Sue: Not winning, but important
I don't think Sue can win anymore.  I just don't see it.  However, I do think she will play a very important role in determining the winner.  How?  I'm not sure yet.  Maybe her idol will be a part of it.  She handled the Gabe/Tiyana situation fairly well, and I can't see her being a threat for a bit.  Plus, she has numbers.

Gabe: Damage control to do
Gabe will likely be a threat come the mergatory, so he'll have some damage control to do.  He smartly didn't confront Tiyana right away, at least about her lying to him.  I'm sure he'll seek (and likely get) his revenge on her.

Genevieve: Needs control, can't fade
Genevieve's game is at a crossroads, as all players' games are at the merge.  She'll need a move, to control a vote, to make a play, something.  If she just fades into the background and goes with the majority, she has no chance of winning.  This last episode wasn't bad for her, but it wasn't good enough for me to think she's winning... yet.

Sierra: Repairing relationship hugely important
Can Sierra repair her relationship with Rachel?  She took out Rachel's closest ally and turned on their Breadwinners alliance.  Rachel may say they're good, but will they actually be?  Will Sierra be able to see through it?  All questions that will likely get answered.  If it's just her, Sam, and Andy, I don't like their chances.

Teeny: Winner or final boss
I'm still on the fence about what kind of season 47 is.  I keep thinking it might be a 43-type season where we have an unexpected winner and all the threats go out before Final Tribal Council.  Either way, I keep seeing narrative hints that Teeny will play a huge role.  Sure, she's not in the best position, but a lot of winners weren't come the merge, like Yam-Yam, Maryanne, and even Kenzie.

Sam: A smart move regardless
It was smart to take out Anika, and Sam got his way.  Surely Anika would've turned on him come the merge.  But it's good Sam got his way and not Sierra.  But like I said for Sierra, they'll need more than just the three of them.  I don't recall Sam making a big connection, but I could see him maybe picking up Kyle and Tiyana, for starters.

And to our departed player...

Anika: Don't underestimate anyone ever
And that's what she did with Andy.  She assumed he wasn't that smart and would go along with their plan they made up.  Even if people have an outburst, it could be for show.  You never know.  People don't just get on Survivor for being incompetent crazy cooks (well, usually).  Her underestimating Andy and not solidifying herself with both Sierra and Sam cost her.

And now, our pre-merge power rankings.  How are things shaping up right before they come together, only to get split apart again, because... reasons?  Here are my pre-mergatory rankings.

13. Tiyana (-2)
12. Kyle (0)
11. Sol (+3)
10. Sue (-4) 
9. Rachel (+1)
8. Rome (+1)
7. Gabe (-2)
6. Genevieve (-2)
5. Sierra (-2)
4. Caroline (+4)
3. Andy (+4)
2. Sam (-1)
1. Teeny (+1)

Biggest rise: Caroline and Andy (+4)
Biggest fall: Sue (-4)

Tiyana takes my bottom spot due to her opening her big mouth.  And yes, I have 3 of the bottom 4 being Tuku members.  I believe their tribe is about to be demolished come the merge due to lack of cohesion.  Sue falls for me simply because I just thought I had her ranked too high, and honestly everyone in front her stands a better chance of winning in front of a jury.  Remember, she's like an older Carolyn (44).  Caroline and Andy rise; I think they're both in a good spot now.  Caroline didn't make a big move, but she was the center point of the trio that talked outside of the cornhole game.  Teeny and Sam flip flop again.  I might just keep that up for a while.  

AFTER EPISODE 6 FOUR WORD GAME

Tiyana: Laying low then striking
I'm guessing that's her strategy, at least.  Her name was brought up by Rome (technically Kyle, but Rome made it worse).  I think she'll lay low and try not to have a target, then perhaps make a move when the time is right.  Also, what will she do with that information about Sue?  It's pretty clear Sue has the idol from Tiyana's perspective.

Kyle: Calling it, challenge beast
I think Kyle's going to be a challenge beast.  We saw a few hints of it in the pre-merge, such as when Tiyana praised him.  I think that could be his downfall, because once he loses he might be "on the chopping block".

Sol: Won war, now what?
It'll be interesting to see where Sol's mind is now and who he next wants out.  Likely a non-Lavo this time.  Rome did throw his name out, but not one person voted for him.  So it seems like he might be safe for a while.

Sue: Truth can't come out
It really will make or break Sue's game, whether or not the truth about her idol and the red paint comes out.  So far, Caroline knows and Tiyana seems to know as well.  It might behoove Sue to tie up that loose end with Tiyana.

Rachel: Another number... anything more?
Rachel seems to be part of what I'm guessing will be a Lavo/Gata majority, perhaps with a few Tuku members.  She'll likely be in the majority for a while, but what else?  She'll need to do something to make an impact post-merge.

Gabe: Keep target level low
Gabe had a surprisingly quiet mergatory episode.  Guess his name might come up next episode.  If his close ties to Sue go undetected, watch out.  I do worry about Tuku falling apart, but we'll see.

Genevieve: Always check odd things
Survivor has taught us to always check things that are odd, or sticking out, or unusual.  Genevieve did that and it earned her an advantage and food and a chance at immunity.  I wonder if those smarts she showed there will cause someone to think she's a threat.  We'll see.

Sierra: Holding Gata together crucial
There might be the start of some cracks on Gata considering Andy got some votes as the backup target.  He's shown in the preview to be upset about this, possibly turning on Sam and Sierra, which wouldn't be good for them.  I think if anyone is to reel Andy in, it's Sierra, not Sam.  She seems to have the better temperament for it.

Caroline: Smartly kept idol secret
Caroline figured out Sue's idol secret, and she smartly confided in her and (so far) has kept it to herself.  I like the way Caroline's playing, but I also must say it doesn't seem like a winning game... yet.

Andy: Doesn't have winning temperament
I mean, we knew that after episode 1, frankly.  But Andy possibly going after Sam or Sierra would just be foolish and an emotional decision that will cost him the game.  Sure, it's a move to pad his resumé, but who is he going to rely upon to continue to vote with him? 

Sam: Next episode most crucial
For Sam's winning chances.  He's already been talked about as a threat to win.  Everyone knows it.  Now Andy is going to be mad at him for not sticking up for him more, which frankly, Sam could have.  The next episode will sink Sam's chances or he'll remain a legit threat to win.

Teeny: Obvious winner is obvious
I'm sorry, but Teeny almost seems to obvious as a winner at this point.  She's clearly not going to be targeted for a while, if ever.  She clearly has winner clues and is being framed narratively in a positive light.  I might keep her #1 until she does something dumb or the show paints her in a bad light.  

And to our departed player...

Rome: Most entertaining early boot
By far.  Dude was meant for TV.  I don't think he'd be perfect for hosting Survivor, more like a Survivor aftershow or reunion.  If they ever bring back the live reunions, have Rome host them.  Anyway, Rome stirred the pot WAY too much post-merge, and he should've realized people would fact-check.  He treated everyone like they were kids that would instantly believe anything he says.  Good personality, bad Survivor player.

All right, new power rankings!  A shake-up, possibly?  Oh yeah.  There's a few people moving quite a bit!

12. Tiyana (+1)
11. Andy (-8)
10. Sam (-8)
9. Kyle (+3)
8. Rachel (+1)
7. Sue (+3)
6. Sol (+5)
5. Genevieve (+1)
4. Sierra (+1)
3. Gabe (+4)
2. Caroline (+2)
1. Teeny (0)

Biggest rise: Sol (+5)
Biggest fall: Andy and Sam (-8)

Yep, I did that.  I worry about Andy and Sam.  Andy's volatile, and Sam is a huge threat.  This season has had blindside after blindside.  I'm calling either Andy or Sam going next week, or one of them going at a split tribal (whether that be at 12 next episode or 10).  Tiyana is still in a terrible spot so she remains at the bottom.  The rest is a bunch of fluff and I'm just waiting for someone to emerge.  Caroline at #2 is not a typo.  I like her chances.  She is slowly emerging as a very smart player, like Erika did in 41.  Teeny will remain at #1.  

AFTER EPISODE 7 FOUR WORD GAME

Andy: No fact checking, dude?
We didn't even see Andy go to Sam or Sierra to fact-check what Sol told him.  What Sol said was basically a lie.  Sam didn't throw his name out there.  But he also didn't defend him, either.  Andy does seem to be getting more focus but it's unbridled focus, if that makes sense.  Like his game is going to blow up at some point.  But we're getting so much focus on him that it makes me think he may be in the show for a while.

Sam: Connections with others key
Sam seems to have built some connections with Teeny, but we're unsure if he has Rachel and Andy seems to have jumped ship.  He'll need more if he's going to survive the next few votes.

Kyle: Target once he loses
It's pretty clear that once Kyle doesn't win immunity, he's going to be a target.  He's shown himself to be a challenge threat, and I'm sure everyone finds him likable.  I'll be surprised if he survives multiple votes without the necklace, to be honest.  

Rachel: Almost completely screwed over
Thank goodness she wasn't.  She had no chance to save herself, so I wonder if she would've played her SITD.  Maybe she'll answer that in a post-game interview.  Anyway, it seems the Sol-Rachel bridge may form a bond between the old Gata and Lavo tribes to team up on Tuku.  We shall see.

Sue: Becoming just another number
Sometimes there are players that go along with the majority and scoot along each vote without ever being in danger.  That seems to be Sue.  I think she'll last until near the finale, but I don't see much winner equity at this point.  She's clearly in a good spot.  Of four people that could be voted for, she was the only one whose name did not come up.  But she also didn't get any confessionals this last episode, which is not good.

Sol: Becoming fan favorite mastermind
We love a person making moves behind the scenes, putting on a good show and getting us to root for them.  That's Sol for us this season.  Like Genevieve (see below), he may become too likable for his own good, but it'll be fun to root for him until it's his time to go.

Genevieve: She likes chaotic men
Apparently!  First Rome now Andy.  If she successfully dumps Andy, and maybe uses Gabe to her advantage as well, watch out.  She could build a good jury case for herself.  But I'm thinking other players might see this before it's too late.

Sierra: Too invisible post merge
This is what I was worried about for Sierra, that she'd become too invisible post-merge.  However, that is largely due to the focus not being on a vote surrounding her or someone she's targeting, so it's not the worst thing.  We're just not really getting anything from her.

Gabe: Likely an upcoming target
Gabe knows it.  We might see an idol hunt from him.  With Tuku not even able to show they're not that strong of a fivesome, they still had to turn on each other.  And I'm not the most confident that Sue and Caroline will have his back.

Caroline: Her seat warming up
Caroline's Tukus are going to start to get targeted and her name came up this episode... by Gabe!  Someone who she is kind of in an alliance with.  I had her so high because I was so sure she'd be lasting a long time in this game.  Now I'm not so sure.

Teeny: Still in zero danger
It's funny, almost.  We may have a winner whose name never comes up as a threat nor as a target.  Unlikely, but so far that's the case for Teeny.  Can't remember if that's ever happened in Survivor history.

And to our departed player...

Tiyana: Unlucky, but bad positioning
Yes, Tiyana got unlucky with the tribe configurations.  It seemed like only the Tukus would turn on her.  She also got unlucky Rachel was saved.  But she was on the bottom of Tuku since the TK vote essentially, and we saw hints of it way back.  Not entirely luck-based, but it didn't help, either.

New power rankings!  Again, I'm gonna shake things up.  I Gata.  Get it?  Haha.

11. Kyle (-2)
10. Gabe (-7)
9. Caroline (-7)
8. Sam (+2)
7. Sierra (-3)
6. Sue (+1)
5. Rachel (+3)
4. Genevieve (0)
3. Sol (+3)
2. Andy (+9)
1. Teeny (0)

Biggest rise: Andy (+9)
Biggest fall: Gabe and Caroline (-7)

This has been the hardest season for me to pinpoint the next tier of players after my winner pick (Teeny).  I somehow have Andy and Sol top 3.  I think the Tukus are in big trouble, which is why 3 of them make the bottom 3 and Sue isn't too high.  I think Rachel's scare will make her safe for a while, so I'm not too worried about her anymore.  Sam and/or Sierra, though, I feel could get targeted in one of the next few votes.

AFTER EPISODE 8 FOUR WORD GAME

Kyle: Realization is there, fortunately
Kyle knows he's a challenge threat.  Not everyone does or says they do.  But we got that from Kyle.  It doesn't mean I think he's going far, but it's better than him being unaware of it.

Gabe: Still an outside target
Gabe and his Tuku's may have won the initial battle over Gata, but he's still someone I could see the Lavo's flipping on.  Well, either him or Kyle.

Caroline: Sneaky players in danger
I think it's pretty clear from what we heard that the Lavo's want to get out the sneaky players in the game (i.e. strong women).  Caroline could be in danger then.  I also wanted to throw out I didn't love how they rushed through her part of the auction when she got the fish eyes.  They spent a lot more time with Austin when he got those in 45.

Sam: Safe, but not forgotten
Sam may be safe for now, but he still has to be near the top of most people's lists.  Also, I hope they show his and Andy's conversation after this, and if Sam is smart, he'll be the one groveling to Andy and apologize for underestimating him.  But he still shouldn't trust him.

Sue: Fading into the background
Sue has had no personal content the last few weeks and a total of one confessional the last two weeks.  It's not great.  To me, this could be the start of a finale goat arc.  I think the younger players are going to forget about her, but I don't think she can win.  And I know, she won immunity this week, but I know many viewers were like, "Oh yeah, Sue's in this game".  

Rachel: Tremendous episode, played perfectly
I keep seeing nothing but praise online for Rachel's play this last episode.  Could it be the best single episode for a player since Tony's extortion episode in WaW?  Possibly.  Rachel was perfectly sneaking in not only getting the idol clue but the idol itself, not an easy task.  She has distanced herself from the rest of the Gatas.  And, she played her Shot in the Dark, not to save herself, but to see people's reaction to her being safe or not.  It also lowers her threat level of having an idol.  Just an awesome episode.  However, I still worry about her being a target since the Gatas took a hit.

Genevieve: Gameplay but not content
If Genevieve had more focus or personal content, I'd have her near the top for sure.  But she's more a background character this season.  She's playing one of the better games out there, but she's not being framed as a potential winner.  I do like her current spot, though.

Sol: Dark horse winner pick
Sol is playing one of the most underrated games out there.  I loved how he told us he wants people to think of him as goofy but in reality he's a bit of a strategic mastermind.  ALSO... he got his way this episode.  Each of the remaining Lavo's wanted a different Gata out.  Teeny wanted Sam.  Genevieve wanted Rachel.  But only Sol wanted Sierra, and he got his way.  That's huge.  I wonder how he did it.  They couldn't have shown it, since that would've given the result away, but perhaps will have some talk about it next episode.  Also, his name was thrown out in the preview next episode so I'm a bit worried, but that's likely a red herring.

Andy: Has everything except seriousness
Andy has the gameplay now after taking out Sierra, which he could argue was his move.  He has the personal content with the "He's All That" bit this episode.  But my worry for him is if the jury would take him seriously enough in a final tribal council.  I'm not sure they would.  He's still got work to do to repair his reputation.

Teeny: Too comfortable a spot?
Teeny is still the best-positioned player, we've still yet to hear Teeny's name as target.  So, that generally means the most likely to win.  But in this new era, the players are smart and can sense when someone is too comfortable and in too good a spot and the game can flip around in a moment.  I still see no reason to move Teeny down, but I want to see more personal content or a move she can take credit for.  

And to our departed player...

Sierra: Alliance doomed her game
I doubt Sierra goes home here if she was never connected to Sam or if she did a better job of distancing herself from him.  They should have convinced others that they weren't working together and perhaps even been on separate sides of a vote one time.  That might've fooled some.  It's unfortunate for Sierra as it cost her her game.

All right, new power rankings.  Not sure if there'll be much of a shake-up, but I gotta move some players around.  Here it is:

10. Caroline (-1)
9. Kyle (+2)
8. Sam (0)
7. Gabe (+3)
6. Sue (0)
5. Genevieve (-1)
4. Andy (-2)
3. Sol (0)
2. Rachel (+3)
1. Teeny (0)

Biggest rise: Rachel (+3)
Biggest fall: Andy (-2)

Weird how Andy was the only one to fall multiple spots, but I think I had him too high last week and I think Sol and Rachel deserve to be above him.  The Tuku's make up 4 of the bottom 5 spots, as I still think we're gonna have a run on Tuku's being voted out.  I wouldn't be surprised if none of them make the final tribal council.  I'm not sure if Caroline is the next boot, but I'm not loving how the show has framed her in recent weeks.  We shall see.

AFTER EPISODE 9 FOUR WORD GAME

Caroline: Lost vote, easily safe
Somehow doesn't make a ton of sense.  Caroline lost her vote at the summit or journey or whatever (stupid twist, btw), so she would've been an easy target, or at least a former member of Tuku would've been.  Yet, they weren't.  They're running the show, it seems.  

Kyle: No immunity, no problem
Another thing that didn't make sense was Kyle not being the target when he finally didn't win immunity.  His name did come up, but he survives to see another few days.  He doesn't have many close friends (like Sol didn't), so he's not long for the game, though.

Sam: Valiant effort, too late
Sam sure scrambled last minute after hearing the plan was Sol.  I give him credit for all the scrambling he did, but he could not get the vote on Sue.  That doesn't bode particularly well for Sam, but Sue seems to have it out for Kyle, not Sam, based on next week's preview.

Gabe: Immunity not a factor
If it was, Kyle would've gone.  Yes, Gabe's name came up, but are the remaining non-Tuku's going to target him?  They'd all have to work together.  The Tuku 4 or 3 (if you don't count Kyle) could be the new Tika 3 or Reba 4, and Gabe would be the ringleader.

Sue: Well insulated, but vulnerable
Sam pointed out the reason he wanted Sue gone is because she's the most well-insulated player in the game.  Little does he know how right he is, since she also has an idol.  Still, I could see the vote shifting to her and her maybe not playing her idol.  Will be interesting.

Genevieve: Another vote she decided
First the Kishan vote now Sol.  She's getting out her former tribemates and not looking back.  Keep in mind, she's a corporate lawyer, so she is extremely comfortable persuading the toughest people in the world to persuade.  Will the target ever shift to her?  If the Tuku's get control, possibly.

Andy: People cautious of him
Still.  Both Sam and Rachel seem reluctant to trust him anymore, and for good reason.  I still think Andy has losing FTC finalist written all over him.

Rachel: Now becoming forgotten, perhaps?
Rachel was a target, then she was sort of a target and played her SitD, now she's not a target.  Perhaps she'll float along?  I do like how she has inroads with a lot of people and she's a good speaker.  She should use Genevieve as a shield, if she can.  

Teeny: Always forced to turn
First Kishan, then Sierra, now Sol.  Anyone she gets close to gets voted out.  This was not good for Teeny at all.  Yes, they can get far, but their win equity took a hit.  I'm starting to see Teeny more as a losing finalist, if they can even get that far.

And to our departed player...

Sol: Too nice for Survivor
Perhaps.  He was a bit too chill and not ruthless enough.  But he was extremely likable for us viewers at home.  I think Sol will join a growing list of entertaining one-time players, which for me includes Shane Powers, Judd Sergeant, Marty Piombo, and Joonas Otsuji.  And I think Sol only plays once due to his age.  

New power rankings, and I gotta say.  There's a shake-up.  I had Tuku pegged as the next ones to go, but they might last a while.  There's definitely some surprises here.

9. Kyle (0)
8. Sam (0)
7. Teeny (-6)
6. Andy (-2)
5. Sue (+1)
4. Caroline (+6)
3. Rachel (-1)
2. Genevieve (+3)
1. Gabe (+6)

Biggest rise: Caroline and Gabe (+6)
Biggest fall: Teeny (-6)

Had to do it.  This might be just for one week, but I have a new #1 in Gabe.  He has a "winner quote", when he said he wants to be on Survivor's New Era Mount Rushmore.  That's something.  He doesn't fall into my "Winners always have great smiles" theory, but that's why I have Genevieve right below him.  If Genevieve gets more focus next week, I might have to consider her as my new #1.  And as for Teeny, well it was bound to happen at some point.  Teeny just isn't doing enough post-merge to win over a jury.  And, if you want to believe the "Mat Chat" theory, well, Gabe had a mat chat.  Teeny did as well, but Gabe's game is looking better to me at this point.

AFTER EPISODE 10 FOUR WORD GAME

Kyle: Shield gone, immunity mandatory
As Kyle mentioned, Gabe was like a shield for Kyle, so he was hesitant to vote Gabe out.  Now, immunity is almost mandatory for Kyle.  But as I'm seeing it, best case scenario is FTC goat for Kyle.  He may have the best story, but there's no way he'll have the best gae.

Sam: In community, staying there?
Sam mentioned how he wanted to be a part of the community again.  The question is: Is he there for good now?  It'll be interesting to see if the men continue to get targeted or if a sly female gets targeted next.  I like how Sam is willing to turn on anyone in the game.  

Teeny: Fire lit, time's now
Huge comeback episode for Teeny, and they needed it.  Even got the emotional backstory, which winners very often have.  I still worry that Teeny may not get enough jury support to win, so I want to see something Teeny can put on their resumé. 

Andy: Sneakiness may bite him
Andy talking to basically everyone and making deals left and right may end up hurting him in the long run.  He's sort of part of the majority, but he's certainly not a leader of it.  We already know Sam is willing to get him out, so I feel Sam and Andy may have a face-off at some point soon.

Sue: Left out, basically forgotten
Sue has gotten SIX, count 'em, SIX confessionals since the "merge".  That's easily the fewest of anyone in still in the game.  Sierra got that many in her two merge episodes.  The next lowest is Kyle with 12, then Caroline with 13.  Everyone else has at least two, three or even FOUR times as many.  No one with that low of an amount post-merge can win.  It's eerily similar to Heather in 41.  Also, she was left out of the Gabe vote, so she really has no agency in the game.  She may get a group together to take out Kyle, but that'd be it.

Caroline: Repairing relationship fairly crucial
Surely, Sue will be a bit upset that Caroline didn't vote with her and turned on Gabe.  But at least Caroline didn't write Sue's name down.  How Caroline handles Sue will be important.  She could still use Sue as a number if Sue is willing to forgive her.  

Rachel: An eerily similar game
I think Rachel's game is eerily similar to another player from last season--Kenzie.  In the majority, slight danger at one point, likable, and well-spoken.  Good at the mental side of challenges (puzzle) but not physical so she's not intimidating in the least, at least not physically.  I could see Rachel pulling it off just like Kenzie did.  It'll come down to if she can sit next to the right people on the jury.  

Genevieve: Not safe just yet
She may have survived this past vote, but she will still be front and center in people's minds.  We know Rachel really wants her out.  They even mentioned getting her out after Gabe.  Perhaps Genevieve will luck out and find an advantage or win an immunity, but she is certainly in danger.

And to our departed player...

Gabe: Got way too comfortable
Gabe even said he had never felt better in the game.  Oops!  That seems to be what does people in in the New Era.  You can never get comfortable.  But surely Gabe realizes with Kyle and Caroline voting for him that even if he had survived to 8, his game was not made.  He was too much of a schemer and he thought others wouldn't notice.

Power rankings time!  There's a bit of a shake-up again.  I don't know what I was thinking last week.

8. Genevieve (-6)
7. Kyle (+2)
6. Sue (-1)
5. Sam (+3)
4. Caroline (0)
3. Andy (+3)
2. Teeny (+5)
1. Rachel (+2)

Biggest rise: Teeny (+5)
Biggest fall: Genevieve (-6)

This feels better than last week's.  Genevieve was an alternate target and is clearly in people's minds as the potential next target.  Everyone is aware she is well-spoken and can control a vote, so she's certainly in danger.  Kyle rises above since he keeps winning immunity or they forget about him.  Teeny rockets back up due to being a large focus and having an emotional backstory.  Rachel is my new #1--I feel like the show is showcasing her as the dark horse winner pick.  I see a similar arc between Rachel and Kenzie.  So, we shall see!

AFTER EPISODE 11 FOUR WORD GAME

Genevieve: Needs a small coalition
Gen is on the bottom and needs to get a few players with her somehow to vote with her.  It won't be easy, but she's a corporate lawyer, so it's time to put those skills to good use.  If she doesn't get a small group with her, she's not long for this game.

Sue: Finally got her way
I swear, if she gets to final tribal she'll be bragging about how she got Kyle out.  Big whoop.  She still has no game agency and no win equity at this point.

Sam: Has nothing, show others
What I mean is Sam needs to show other players that he's not this big threat.  He needs to lower his threat level while raising the threat level of someone else.  He has nothing going for him in the game and he needs to show the others this.  

Caroline: Needs a defining moment
I wouldn't say she has zero agency or win equity, but she needs a defining winners moment.  I kind of see her game similar to Maryanne's in 42.  She needs to take out her own Omar, who I guess would be... Genevieve?  She just needs a moment like that and get to the end, of course.

Andy: Set up for fall
Whether it be shortly before Final Tribal Council, or AT Final Tribal Council, Andy is being set up for a fall.  His cockiness has shown the last few weeks, and they typically don't do that for winners.  

Teeny: Game agency still needed
Teeny has all the winners hints in the world (Mat Chat, name high in into, always getting her perspective), but just doesn't have the game agency.  But this could be a situation where Teeny sits next to two people not very deserving of a win (Sue, Andy?) and Teeny basically wins by default.

Rachel: Biggest threat nobody sees
At least not yet.  Rachel is starting to build quite the resumé and no one is talking about of, that we see, at least.  She is being set up for either the final boss or as the winner.  At this point, I cannot see her losing if she is able to get to Final Tribal Council.

And to our departed player...

Kyle: Another likable player gone
It's a shame.  First Sol, now Kyle.  I see why they were under edited, but both of their likability still shown through and it's tough to now see Kyle be voted out.  Let this be a lesson to future players--don't establish yourself as a challenge threat.  Well, not if you're as likable as Kyle is.

New power rankings!  Final 7.  A bit of a shakeup?  A tad.  Some places remain basically the same.

7. Sam (-2)
6. Sue (0)
5. Genevieve (+3)
4. Andy (-1)
3. Caroline (+1)
2. Teeny (0)
1. Rachel (0)

Biggest rise: Genevieve (+3)
Biggest fall: Sam (-2)

Everyone else moved one spot or not at all.  Genevieve rises because while she is on the bottom, if anyone can claw her way out of it, it's her.  She has win equity as well.  Sam falls because he's now the perceived #1 target.  Caroline and Andy swap because I feel Caroline not only has more staying power but a better chance of winning.

AFTER EPISODE 12 FOUR WORD GAME

Sam: Reward choices not dumb
Boy Teeny sure thought Sam made some terrible choices regarding his picks to go on reward with him.  I don't think they were dumb.  If he had taken Teeny and Caroline, they wouldn't have been swayed by Sam, he would've broken his word to Andy, and not solidified his bond with him and Genevieve.  Operation Italy doesn't happen without those exact two choices.

Sue: Deer in headlights game
That's how I see Sue's game.  She's watching it pass by.  Sure she's saying what she wants and agreeing with people, but is ever actually doing anything?  Her biggest opportunity came to play her idol on Caroline, which she even mentioned, but failed to do so.  I doubt she's being set up for a Gabler-style win, but it wouldn't absolutely shock me.

Genevieve: Victory not yet clear
She's only been given personal content when mandatory (such as the letters from home), and she still has a ways to go.  Not sure if the jury fully respects her.  I think she did great in working with Sam and Andy.  Her showing the idol to Teeny was a bit questionable, as Teeny should have thought "Why is she showing me her idol if it's real?"  The next episode will be hugely telling for everyone's chances, but I think mostly Genevieve.

Andy: Epic move, not respected
Still!  I think it was Gabe who made a comment that Andy flip-flopped again.  Jury's don't tend to reward flip-floppers.  They want to see some loyalty in a player's game.  But Operation Italy was a success, and if Andy gets to the end, I definitely could see him getting a vote or two.  Winning?  That's another story.

Teeny: From narrator to villain
Crazy how in one episode Teeny went from the main character/narrator to villain.  Does this mean she doesn't even reach the end?  I thought once Rachel won immunity the target might shift to Teeny, but instead, they chose Caroline.  I was just seeing a lot of displeasure for Teeny from Survivor fans online.  I can't see her winning.  

Rachel: Winning chances take hit
Caroline was a supporting number for Rachel, so her winning chances took a hit, albeit a small one.  I think it will come down to how Rachel uses her idol.  If she uses it in a good way and gets to the end, the game is hers.  Winning immunity proved to be huge since it very easily could've been Rachel with the three votes.  

And to our departed player...

Caroline: Should've seen it coming
Not Caroline, but us.  Caroline was largely invisible in the show's edit, so we should've known she'd be the victim of a great move (see J.Maya in 45).  I had a feeling that Operation Italy was going to work once they narrowed on Caroline, since the show never framed her in the best light (like we should be rooting for her).  

Second to last power rankings of the season!  I will do another after Part 1 of the Finale, but here are my rankings of the Final 6:

6. Sue (0)
5. Sam (+2)
4. Teeny (-2)
3. Andy (+1)
2. Genevieve (+3)
1. Rachel (0)

Biggest rise: Genevieve (+3)
Biggest fall: Teeny (-2)

I haven't had Teeny outside the Top 3 only once all season, but she drops outside again.  She has not had a signature move and now she's being framed in a negative light.  Genevieve and Rachel are the two I think with the best win equity.  The question will be who gets there, because clearly, as the show set up in next week's preview, only one of them can make it.  I predict one will get to the end against two of the three of Sue, Teeny, and Andy, and take most of the votes.  So, that's why they're #1 and #2.  

AFTER EPISODE 13 (FINALE PT. 1) FOUR WORD GAME

Sue: Idol play an afterthought
It's so blatantly obvious the other players don't respect her enough as a player to win.  There is the slightest chance that she can pull off a Gabler-style win, but she'd have to beat Rachel in fire and have a great FTC.  And we know she's not the best speaker in the world.  Her odds are slim to none.  Her idol play was a nice touch, but some argue she should've just held onto it and revealed it at FTC.

Sam: Had to do it
He had to turn on Genevieve and reveal it's lack of authenticity.  It's a shame, I liked them as a duo.  They seemed like a better power couple in the game than him and Sierra.  Anyway, Sam really should've convinced everyone more, because he was one vote away from leaving.  Oddly, the one person we saw him telling was the one who voted for him (Teeny).

Teeny: Completely lost, possibly returnee?
Teeny's arc has been interesting.  It's not too often we see a player have a really solid pre-merge and then to come unraveled post-merge and be on the wrong side of the votes so many times.  I think Teeny could benefit from more life experience, and if she were to ever return a few years from now, I would have her as my winner pick.  I think she'll reflect on her game and learn from it.

Rachel: Obvious winner or shock
We're either going to have an obvious winner or a shock at firemaking/final tribal.  Rachel dominated this last episode, idoling out Andy, winning immunity, and is just virtually a firemaking challenge away from winning.  It's gonna take something crazy for her to lose.  

And to our two departed players...

Andy: His ego doomed him
I fully believe Rachel was going to Idol out Sam before Andy went and told her he was voting for her and was trying to jury manage her.  We saw so many hints of his ego post-merge.  Once the Anika blindside happened, this dude was not destined for a happy ending because he wasn't grounded enough.  Operation Italy only further inflated his ego, which cost him.

Genevieve: Authenticity of idol inconsequential
At least, once Sam revealed it.  She had no reason to keep saying it was real, because then it can just further make her look bad.  She did invent a nice backstory for it, finding a clue under a slice of pizza.  I think Gen played a great game and there were times I thought she could've run away with it.  I think if she had gotten Rachel instead of Sierra or Sol early merge, she's possibly still in the game.  Who knows.

Final power rankings!  Just the final 4!  There are a couple ways I could do this.  I could do it the way I think they'll finish, or order them on their chances of winning.  I'm going to do something inbetween.  I'll explain below.

4. Teeny (0)
3. Sue (+3)
2. Sam (+3)
1. Rachel (0)

Not going to do biggest rise/fall since that's obvious.  I think the likeliest order is Sam 4th, Teeny 3rd, Sue 2nd, and Rachel 1st.  I think their odds of winning, from least to most, is Teeny, Sue, Sam, Rachel.  But this order above is one I could see happening, if Rachel or Sam wins immunity, does not put themselves in fire, and Teeny loses at fire.  So I'll stick with that.  

Now like I do before each final episode, I'm going to rank the final 4 based on how much I think the each of the jurors like them, from most to least.  I could be completely wrong on some of these, but here they are:

Sierra: Sam, Rachel, Sue, Teeny
Sol: Rachel, Teeny, Sam, Sue
Gabe: Sue, Rachel, Sam, Teeny
Kyle: Sam, Rachel, Teeny, Sue
Caroline: Sue, Rachel, Teeny, Sam
Andy: Rachel, Sam, Sue, Teeny
Genevieve: Rachel, Teeny, Sam, Sue

Now I'm going to tally up the marks for the final four.  If someone was ranked first they get 4 points, second gets 3 points, third gets 2 points, and last gets 1 point.

Teeny: 13
Sue: 15
Sam: 18
Rachel: 24

Not as large of a runaway for Rachel as I thought it'd be.  But now let's have the Final 4 rank the other 3 still in the game, since one more person is joining the jury.

Teeny: Rachel, Sue, Sam
Sue: Rachel, Teeny, Sam
Sam: Rachel, Teeny, Sue
Rachel: Sue, Sam, Teeny

Now let's add those points to the previous totals, considering a first above is 3 points, second is 2 points, and third is 1 point.

Teeny: 18
Sue: 21
Sam: 22
Rachel: 33

Little bit more of a runaway for Rachel, while Sue narrows the gap between her and Sam.  

Finally, I'm going to give my top 3 scenarios as to what I think will happen.  Hopefully one of these will be spot on.

1. Rachel wins F4 immunity, takes Sue, Sam beats Teeny in fire, Rachel wins over Sam (runner-up) and Sue.
2. Sam wins F4 immunity, takes Teeny, Rachel beats Sue in fire, Rachel wins over Sam (runner-up) and Teeny.

And my third one is crazy...

3. Sam wins F4 immunity, takes on Rachel in fire, Sam loses fire, Rachel wins over Sue (runner-up) and Teeny.

I think one of those three happens.  Regardless, I have Rachel winning.  We shall see next week!

AFTER FINALE PT. 2 FOUR WORD GAME

Teeny: The wind has spoken
Jeff totally should've said that when snuffing her torch.  If the elements/wind were not a factor, surely Teeny's fire burns through the rope.  I think that's a first for their fire-making challenges.  I know they had to have Devens and Chris go to a separate area because it was so windy--perhaps they should've done the same for Teeny?  Regardless, Teeny likely gets shut out, just as Sue did.  At least with Sam making it to the end, Rachel didn't completely sweep the votes.  

Sue: Loyal, proud, head high
Good for Sue for playing the game she did.  It's not a game that can ever win in the New Era, but good for her.  Surely if you're an older woman (40+), you know you can't play a loyal game and not backstab/make a move and expect to win.  Well, that's true for most anyone.  Again, good for Sue.  Also, not too many people were surprised at her age reveal, although I think Sam's reaction was genuine.  Why hype up your competitor's reveal?  Anyway, good game, Sue.  One of the best ones a woman 50+ has ever played.

Sam: Needed better FTC performance
Sam had to kill it at Final Tribal Council, and he didn't.  He didn't do badly, but there's two things he should've done differently.  One, he should've emphasized that Rachel got by on luck.  He kind of did, but needed to more.  I don't think he pointed out that Rachel was saved by Sol.  But two, he should've lauded his own game more, saying that he was the true Survivor who got by on grit, social game, and social awareness.  Could he even have swayed enough people?  Well, we saw Sierra and Gabe were torn on their decisions.  I think he could've maybe swayed one more person.  But Sue likely votes Rachel in a 4-4 tie.  Perhaps Sam didn't have a chance at all.

Rachel: Another iconic female winner
The new era is now filled with iconic female winners, from Erika, to Maryanne, to Dee, to Kenzie to now Rachel.  Each won with a different game.  Erika was the ultimate underdog--lamb to lion.  Maryanne was the late bloomer and killed it at FTC.  Dee was the dominator--did well in every facet, mostly strategically.  Kenzie was the social butterfly who won over her competitor's closest ally.  And now Rachel, who mostly dominated the physical and "outplay" portion of the game, but also built close bonds to establish herself in the game.  To me, Rachel played the 2nd best game of the New Era, behind only Dee.  

Well, that does it for Season 47.  I gotta say, it was a fun season.  Definitely one of the better ones of the New Era.  Enjoyable, solid, respectable winner, good cast.  Here's hoping 48, starting in February, is just as good.  

Survivor 46 FOUR WORD GAME

 As always, I will be doing my usual Four Word Game, inspired by Colin Cowherd's former game on his show "The Herd" called the Three Word game.  In this, I will briefly summarize in four words each player's week, their outlook, what they need to do to succeed at their current juncture, etc.  Then I'll explain upon it a bit.  Lastly, I'll re-rank each remaining player, which is a combination of where I think they'll finish and how likely they are to win the game.  

And we will always go in ascending order, from lowest ranked to highest ranked the previous week.  The order my first week is based on my pre-season ranking of the players (before I saw any content).  The eliminated player will always be the last one talked about.

After Episode 1 Four Word Game

Moriah: Already off on her
My thought was she would be too nerdy or weird and also a potential challenge liability, so I pegged her as the first boot.  Whoops.  I could definitely see Moriah making the merge now.  Good on her to align with Jem and Maria.

Randen: Doomed from the start
Not a lot of content, already got a player (Venus) not liking him... yeah not a good start for Randen.  If Nami loses a pre-merge challenge, he's very likely a goner.  The thing is though, they look like a very strong tribe.

Soda: Maryanne the second, possibly?
Soda screams Maryanne to me: bubbly personality, annoys some players, and not a physical threat at all.  Like Maryanne, if Soda can survive to the merge, she's got a good chance.  I definitely underestimated her as well.

Bhanu: Emotions may cost him
We've already seen him cry at the first vote, we see him yelling at Jess in the next episode... Bhanu is a much more emotional player than I thought he'd be.  Fortunately for him, he seems to have replaced Jelinsky in the majority alliance, but I wouldn't be shocked if they chose Jess over him next vote.

Ben: All character, no player
Ben was all about "good vibes" and stuff like that, and while that's good for morale early on, I'm not seeing much game-savvyness from him.  He might end up being the first boot on his tribe due to the women's alliance.  When Jeff snuffs his torch, you better believe he'll be smiling and in good spirits.

Charlie: In lose-lose situation
Yes, Charlie is in the middle on his tribe, and whatever he does, I think he loses.  If he goes with the women, he's at the bottom of their alliance and they will jettison him as soon as they can.  If he goes with the men, he'd be hoping for a miracle since Maria has an extra vote.  

Venus: No long-term plans
Granted, it was only episode 1, but Venus doesn't seem to have any long-term plans.  She wants to get out Randen--great.  But if Nami goes to tribal multiple times, she will definitely be on the chopping block.  She's not in the Hunter-Soda-Tevin alliance, so it would be either her or Liz.

Liz: Zero chance of winning
Yep.  Already saying it, after one episode I declare Liz as having zero chance of winning the game.  Well, her, Randen, Jess, all pretty much at or near 0.  But Liz saying she's owned four businesses rubbed Tevin the wrong way, and he's already clearly a power player.  Even if she gets to the end, it'll be as a goat.

Jess: Saved by terrible player
In most seasons, Jess and her lack of her ability to function would easily make her the first boot, but Jelinsky saved her.  Now Jess has a chance to redeem herself, but she has a terribly steep hill to climb.  Not only does she have to hope her tribe doesn't become the Lulu Losers 2.0, but she'll have to work really hard to save herself if they lose just even one more pre-merge challenge.  I'm not liking her chances.

Q: Kaleb of this season
On a terrible tribe?  Check.  Forced to carry tribemates?  Check.  Black charismatic male who will likely get targeted early post-merge?  Check.  Q checks all the boxes for being this season's Kaleb.  However, I do think he's more athletic than Kaleb, although Kaleb has more charm.  

Hunter: Solid start, lay low
Hunter will undoubtedly be a possible target at some point, I mean just look at him.  He had a solid start, agreeing to work with Tevin and Soda despite not being a huge fan of their singing.  He did well with tolerating it.  He'll need to lay low and not make any flashy moves too early, and hope they'll be bigger fish for people to fry.

Maria: Another mom killing it
Just like Julie last season, I have a good feeling about Maria getting fairly far.  We've technically only had one "Mom" of the season ever win, and that was all the way back in Season 2 with Tina.  Could Maria do it?  She birthed three babies without any meds, nothing's too painful or difficult for her.

Tiffany: Advantage and idol queen 
In my pre-season analysis, I compared Tiffany to Drea from 41, who memorably had a crap ton of advantages and idols.  Tiffany already has one idol.  She clearly wanted it, did what it took to get it, and I bet she'll be hungry for more.

Jem: Too quiet a premiere
I can't remember too much of what Jem did in the premiere, and for me, that's too quiet of a start for someone I was considering as a potential winner.  I know she formed an alliance with Maria and Moriah, but that's about it. 

Tevin: Face of the season
When you think "faces" of a season, you think maybe not of the winner but of one of more memorable characters.  Carolyn of 44.  Cody or Jesse of 43.  I think Tevin will be the face of 46.  I fully expect him to at least get near the finale.  He not only was featured in the preview, but got the freaking opening narration this season.  

Tim: In a tough spot
So if his tribe loses, who will be the target?  Likely Ben or Tim.  Unfortunately for Tim, his chances fell significantly for me because his chances of making the merge dropped that much.  I really hope he can somehow find a way to pull through.  Maybe he'll find his tribe's idol?  He might have to go on a search soon.

Kenzie: Still my winner pick
Spoiler alert, I'm going to keep Kenzie at #1.  She had a great premiere, she had a winner-like confessional or two, and she is in the majority alliance easily.  The problem is, she's on a sucky tribe.  But so was Yam-Yam, and we saw how he did.  His tribe was also purple.  If Yam-Yam can do it, Kenzie can.

And to our departed player...

Jelinsky: Worst new era player?
Hard to think of a way Jelinsky could have played worse without actually quitting.  He should not have been so eager to volunteer for both the Sweat challenge and the journey.  Had he played it cool and slow, it would've been Jess going, and not him.  His youthfulness and eagerness for the game cost him.  A wiser, more mature player would've held back on voluntereing, knowing the consequences of failure.  

All right, new power rankings!  Obviously will be a few players moving a lot of spaces after the first week.  Here it is:

17. Jess (-8)
16. Randen (+1)
15. Ben (-1)
14. Bhanu (+1)
13. Tim (-11)
12. Venus (-1)
11. Charlie (+2)
10. Moriah (+8)
9. Liz (+1)
8. Q (0)
7. Soda (+9)
6. Jem (-2)
5. Hunter (+2)
4. Tiffany (+1)
3. Maria (+2)
2. Tevin (+1)
1. Kenzie (0)

Biggest rise: Soda (+9)
Biggest fall: Tim (-11)

Jess and Tim fall significantly, while Soda and Moriah jump up a ton.  Everyone else stayed within 2 spots of my original ranking.   I love the top 5, and if any go pre-merge I will be shocked, although Tiffany and Kenzie are on a terrible tribe.  The first 5 or 6 are who I largely expect at this point to be the pre-merge boots, based on tribe make-ups and alliances. 

After Episode 2 Four Word Game

Randen: Alliance and idol find?!
What a good episode for Randen, which I was not expecting.  He formed an alliance with Venus and has the start of an idol.  I don't know if I would've told Venus that early; it was risky and she easily could've run off and told someone like Soda.  But if they lose, I'm feeling okay about Randen's chances.  Although an idol misplay could happen.

Ben: Endearing, but no bonds
Sure, Ben endeared us and his tribe with his ability to name Metallica songs.  But who is he close to?  He's semi-close to Charlie and Tim, but that's it.  We don't see him personally bonding with any one person.  That's not good.  He's got early merge boot written all over him.  Think Sifu and Danny (44).  

Bhanu: Dude needs to chill
Funnily, we saw him meditating and chanting at the start of the episode, so imagine if he didn't do that.  But Bhanu's emotions are all over the place, and if Yanu loses again, he's in big trouble.

Tim: Capable of surviving early?
It'll all depend on if and how Siga loses and if there's a tribe swap.  But oddly, I think Tim's chances on this tribe may be the worst.  Ben's extremely likable and not a threat, whereas Tim is shadier and more likely to be targeted.  

Venus: Focus setting up run?
She got a ton of focus tonight, which leads me to thinking she's either going to be a force in this game... or the first boot from her tribe.  It's hard to say.  Given Nami won, I'm actually leaning towards the former.  She needs to trust Randen and maybe try to rope in someone else.  Maybe Liz?

Charlie: Best positioned person playing
He might just be.  His alliance with Maria and the girls insulates him quite a bit.  He also won't be turned on by the guys.  He also is on a strong tribe.  And, if Maria and him were targets, she'd likely be targeted first due to her likely being seen as the leader of their duo.  He's in a terrific spot and he's in this game for the long haul.

Moriah: Leaning towards potential blindside
For Moriah, that is.  If Siga loses, I could see Charlie and Maria turning on the girls, and likely Moriah.  I just have that gut feeling.  Funny how she and Liz are so similar and were the two sit-outs.  I'd really hope they could either get on the same tribe or make the merge together.

Liz: The odd woman out
It's strange how on Nami, Liz is the only one who hasn't been shown how she really fits in.  If anything, it's how she doesn't fit in.  I don't like her chances.  I feel like Randen/Venus are likelier targets, but if Randen gets his idol and plays it successfully... watch out.

Q: Made the right choice
In not turning on Kenzie.  It would've been way too soon.  Yes, she kinda turned on him in suggesting to Bhanu and Jess to get out Tiff and Q, but Q had to be the bigger man.  He can worry about taking out Kenzie later.  Jess was a liability and she needed to go.  

Soda: Losing likability, potential blindside
Venus has seemingly lost faith in her, not listening to her during challenges and taking the idol away from her after they won.  I compared her to Maryanne last week, but she's more like a less likable version of her.  Meaning, I don't think Soda can win really.

Jem: Not enough focus, yet
I worry about Jem's winner chances at this point.  Yes, two episodes in.  For having 4 hours, she's gotten very little focus.  I had her as a potential winner coming in, but not anymore.  I also worry she could be a blindside victim if Siga loses.

Hunter: Confessional count crazy low
He only had one confessional this past episode and is tied for the lowest this season.  It's crazy for someone of Hunter's archetype.  I wonder what this means.  Maybe they're trying to hide the winner?  Also, in the intro package, his name was displayed higher than everyone else's, just like Dee's was last season.  Coincidence?  Possibly.  But maybe not.

Tiffany: Smartly kept her cool
I don't think the other tribes will remember how upset she got.  If anything, if I was one of them, I'd have empathy and know she was only that way because of how poorly her tribe was doing.  She's still perhaps the best-positioned player in her tribe, like Shan on Ua in 41.

Maria: Finally another mom powerhouse?
You can probably name the number of moms that have been powerhouse strategic players in Survivor history on one hand.  Tina, Denise... uh... that's all I got.  She may be a target come the merge, but we'll see.  I like her positioning with Charlie.

Tevin: Kaleb if tribe's successful
Most on Tevin's tribe are aware of Tevin's charisma and connections to basically everyone.  So that paints him as a social threat.  Kaleb was in a similar spot last season, but got taken out shortly after the merge due to not having numbers.  We may see what would've happened if he had had numbers and been on a good tribe.

Kenzie: Name being thrown out
I don't like it, since Kenzie was my winner pick.  Q mentioned multiple times that he was likely going to take out Kenzie.  Now it's too late, fortunately.  Although, I still don't like Kenzie's name being thrown out there.  Also, it was not smart of her to throw out turning on Q and Tiff to Bhanu and Jess.  She should've known better.  Now Q will try to get revenge when they merge.

And to our departed player...

Jess: Survivor's not her game
Jess seems like someone who'd be wildly successful at other games, but Survivor is not it.  When she has a lack of sleep and food, she's like a zombie.  She didn't even see the idol that Tiffany almost led her to.  Survivor's not her game, but I enjoyed what we got from Jess in the two episodes we had with her.

All right, new power rankings!  Perhaps even more of a shake-up than last week!  I'm not shy to move a lot of people a lot of spots.  Here they are:

16. Bhanu (-2)
15. Liz (-6)
14. Moriah (-4)
13. Ben (+2)
12. Randen (+4)
11. Tim (+2)
10. Venus (+2)
9. Jem (-3)
8. Kenzie (-7)
7. Q (+1)
6. Soda (+1)
5. Hunter (0)
4. Tiffany (0)
3. Tevin (-1)
2. Maria (+1)
1. Charlie (+10)

Biggest rise: Charlie (+10)
Biggest fall: Kenzie (-7)

Yep, I did that.  Charlie's my new winner pick.  Loved his content this past episode.  His naming of Taylor Swift songs reminded me of Dee's big toe last season.  And of course, showing how insulated he is in the tribe and having a tight #1 in Maria.  Liz and Moriah moved down since they were their tribe's sit-outs, and if either of their tribes loses and they want to focus on challenge strength, they are the likely targets.  Funny how my top 6 stayed largely intact outside of Charlie jumping in and basically replacing Kenzie.  Now, people of Charlie's archetype don't do well at final tribals (see Spencer), but he's in law school and I could see it happen.  You never know.

After Episode 3 Four Word Game

Bhanu: History repeats itself, different?
I had to use this for Bhanu since he was the one most affected, but history sure repeated itself.  In 44, Matthew was pulled from the game, which saved Josh from certain elimination.  Now a very similar thing happens here.  The similarities: The pulled player was from the dominant orange tribe, and the saved player is a gay minority who was certainly going on a struggling purple tribe.  It only saved Josh for a little bit.  Now it's up to Bhanu to see if this can save him further.  But I doubt it.

Liz: Not really on bottom
With Randen's departure, Liz isn't really on the bottom.  Maybe she never really was.  But Venus certainly is with no ties to the rest of the group.  Liz should make it to around the merge, at least.  Although I could see her being an easy vote at some point.

Moriah: Too quiet, fewest confessionals
Moriah is now tied with the fewest confessionals with Jem and Hunter.  That can't be good.  We got good content from Jem and Hunter tonight, but not Moriah.  That doesn't bode well.

Ben: Journey puzzle was doable
Yet Ben couldn't solve it.  He doesn't seem like the puzzle-solving type.  I doubt that lost vote will end up biting him in the butt, but it was a doable puzzle.

Tim: Slowly fading into obscurity
Tim went from 4 to 2 to 0 confessionals from Episodes 1 to 3.  That's not good.  But hey, even Tevin went down to 0.  But Tevin is in a much better spot.  I just worry Tim's not being set up well at all.

Venus: Odds stacked against her
But she's not out.  I have a feeling Venus might do better than most people give her credit for, but I could be wrong.  She really has to work on forming bonds with other people on the tribe.

Jem: Beware advantage perfectly executed
Hid it perfectly, nobody that we know of suspected a thing, and she looked at night.  Just perfectly done.  She's not a long-time Survivor fan, but she knew what to do.  

Kenzie: Bhanu tanked her chances
Bhanu called Kenzie the mastermind to both Ben and Liz, which, I think, just sunk Kenzie's game.  She's going the way of Kaleb I feel.  I do feel she played well this episode, consoling Bhanu, but her stock fell thanks to him.

Q: Some liabilities aren't salvageable
Q keeps trying to improve Bhanu, but eventually, he's going to realize that Bhanu can't keep his big mouth shut.  Why he wants Kenzie out when she's done nothing but vote with him baffles me.  

Soda: Most annoying cheerleader ever
Let's hope she doesn't sit out of another challenge.  That was painful.  Also, I hate to say it, but would she have been able to get over the barrel in the water?  I dunno....

Hunter: Built for Survivor, but...
Not to win.  Hunter is extremely crafty, and we saw how he dominated the bag toss at the challenge.  He was built for this game.  However, his social game seems to lack.  I can't see him winning at the end and earning enough jury votes.  I love Hunter and wish him the best, but he's losing most final 3's.

Tiffany: Most sane Yanu member
Easily.  Kenzie's not bad, but she's definitely getting targeted before Tiff.  I wonder if Yanu gets decimated, will Tiffany be able to slip by or will it be a complete Pagonging?

Tevin: Next episode will reveal
A lot of Tevin's future in this game.  He was shown saying "Soda got to go-da", which is an awesome quote, by the way.  If he can get his way, he'll definitely be a frontrunner.  If not, he might not have as much leverage as I thought.

Maria: Every mom gets purpled
At some point, right?  Happened to Heather, happened to Heidi, happened to Julie, now it's happening to Maria.  One confessional combined in the last two episodes.  And they've had 3.5 hours to work with.  Shameful.

Charlie: Most visible winning player
That is, the most visible player on the two tribes that haven't gone to tribal.  The Yanu tribe obviously gets the most visibility due to going to tribal all the time, but Charlie has the most visibility in terms of confessional count outside them.  That's still good to have.

And to our departed player...

Randen: Not way we predicted
Most Survivor fans predicted Randen to be a pre-merge boot due to how he came off in pre-game press.  But this is not the way we predicted at all.  He was actually doing better than we thought he would.  It's a shame his injury took him out of the game.

New power rankings!  How do things stack up after 3 episodes?

15. Bhanu (+1)
14. Venus (-4)
13. Moriah (+1)
12. Tim (-1)
11. Liz (+4)
10. Kenzie (-2)
9. Q (-2)
8. Ben (+5)
7. Jem (+2)
6. Soda (0)
5. Tiffany (-1)
4. Charlie (-3)
3. Maria (-1)
2. Hunter (+3)
1. Tevin (+2)

Biggest rise: Ben (+5)
Biggest fall: Venus (-4)

Bhanu remains in dead last, and Venus falls due to losing her closest ally.  Liz rises due to Venus falling and being a more obvious target.  Ben rises due to his likability and willingness to share with his camp and pulling off that lie about losing his vote.  Soda stays where she was despite Tevin seemingly wanting to get her next episode, but I think that was either a red herring or Nami won't go to tribal council.  Tevin does take the top spot from Charlie, despite Tevin not having any confessionals last episode.  But I think it was an anomaly.  Charlie is still a top contender for me, but I want to see a tad more.

After Episode 4 Four Word Game

Venus: Saved by bigger target?
Now Venus basically got zero content, but the target seems to maybe be shifting to Soda, which would be huge for Venus.  Hard to say since they still haven't been to trbal.

Moriah: See you can jump!
Granted a big jump was not necessary to succeed in the challenge, but the whole bit about Moriah training on how to jump was unnecessary and could've easily been cut since it didn't factor in the slightest.

Tim: Unknowingly playing awful game
That's not good.  He's now suspected of having the idol and planting the fake (GREAT move by Jem), he struggled in the challenge, and he's only sort of close to Ben.  Not great!

Liz: Go with the flow
That seems what Liz will do.  She seems like someone who will go with whatever the majority decides come the merge, even if it's to take out a Soda or Venus.  She very well could slip by until the end, but she's still not winning.  Possible FTC loser?

Kenzie: Perhaps in larger danger
Yes, Bhanu is gone, but he was kind of like a shield for Kenzie.  Kenzie's going to have to make friends fast or find another shield come the merge, IF she can make it there.

Q: Cut the dead weight
Had to.  I know he wanted to take out Kenzie, but she's a number, and his numbers have dwindled to very little.  If Q is going to succeed, he's going to have to make friends on another tribe.

Ben: Funnily caught in lie
I just thought it was funny how he was one of the main diggers for the "idol" box, and I believe he was the one who voiced that it may have been planted.  He who smelt it dealt it?

Jem: Rising fast for me
Jem is a dark horse winner contender, but perhaps she's even shedding that dark horse mantle.  If she uses Maria and possibly Charlie as shields, she could get very far and do very well.  I like what I've seen the last few episodes from her.

Soda: Fine line, endearing/annoying
Maryanne in 42 walked that line perfectly, and stayed just enough on the side of endearing.  Soda is trying the same thing, but she's not doing as well and is coming off as more annoying.  Even if she makes the end, I can't see her winning, at least against someone decent.  Her name will likely come up if Nami goes to tribal, but I think what we saw in the last episode may have been a bit of a red herring.

Tiffany: Just survive each vote
Tiffany is someone I could see winning a FTC vote, but she's just got to find a way to survive each vote.  It's the name of the game, right?  The odds and numbers are stacked against her, but if anyone can do it, "Tiff" can.

Charlie: Needs more winner content
Don't know what it is specifically he needs, but the more I watch since Ep. 2, the more I think Charlie's now not winning.  He's too much like a Drew or Spencer, good narrator, but almost 0% chance of winning a FTC vote.

Maria: Challenge not on her
The immunity challenge was not all on Maria, who struggled to get her ring off the pole.  It was also on Tim, who struggled to get the key or whatever off the floating platform.  Yet that seemed to get forgotten about.  Maybe we weren't supposed to feel bad for him, but feel bad for her...

Hunter: The quiet challenge beast
We get these sometimes on Survivor.  I'd argue Joe and Jonathan (42) were in this category as well.  Problem is, these players cannot win.  I love Hunter and wish him the best, but his social and strategic game are severely lacking.  He's still yet to have an episode with more than 2 confessionals.  He is the ONLY player you can say that about.  Bhanu has almost 6 times as many confessionals--insane.  I know, it doesn't help Nami hasn't gone to TC, but that's certainly where this season has struggled.

Tevin: No target on him
It's got to be a good thing that no one on their tribe has really targeted him.  I think Venus did for a brief moment, but I could be mistaken.  He's got decent chances, especially if he can get out Soda and call it one of his signature moves.

And to our departed player...

Bhanu: All time terrible player
I feel like I've said that about each of Yanu's vote-offs.  Jalinsky was overconfident, Jess was not cut out, and Bhanu was awful at the game.  Perhaps the producers should've thought better about putting these three on a tribe together.  Bhanu couldn't keep his mouth shut, got overly emotional, and was an all-out terrible player.  May he never grace our screens on Survivor again.


New rankings!  I'm really gonna try to shake it up this week:

14. Tim (-2)
13. Kenzie (-3)
12. Ben (-4)
11. Soda (-5)
10. Moriah (+3)
9. Q (0)
8. Liz (+3)
7. Venus (+7)
6. Hunter (-4)
5. Charlie (-1)
4. Maria (-1)
3. Tevin (-2)
2. Tiffany (+3)
1. Jem (+6)

Biggest rise: Venus (+7), also Jem (+6)
Biggest fall: Soda (-5)

Yep, almost previously unheard of Jem is my #1 this week.  I like to change my #1 around a lot, give a lot of different players a time to shine.  Numbers 13-7 are almost all interchangeable and I could swap any of them anywhere and be fine with it.  Tim for me, though, is the likeliest to go, so long as Yanu somehow avoids tribal, which at this point... they almost have to, right?  Hunter drops due to just not having content.  Tiffany rises because I can see her potential, and if she loses Q and Kenzie, she may be able to slip by as a non-threat without them.  I like her chances.

After Episode 5 Four Word Game

Tim: Still likely going soon
I still believe Tim is likely going soon.  He got skunked so badly the previous two episodes, he's still likely someone we shouldn't get too attached to.  However, he just had a great episode despite failing at the end with the challenge.  Good thing for him is no one seemed to blame him in the slightest.  But the only reason he wasn't the target was because they thought he had the idol.  We could see a split-vote where Tim is the main target in hopes of flushing his "idol".

Kenzie: Prove Bhanu's words disparaging
We are getting the mergatory next episode, so Kenzie will need to go to everyone and convince them Bhanu was throwing her under the bus.  If she does a good job of it, she could still go far.  It was good to see Kenzie also win a challenge, I think she needed it most.

Ben: More Danny than Sifu
For a while I've thought of Ben's arc similar to Sifu's, but I think he's gotten more content than Sifu.  Now I'm thinking he's more a Danny from 44.  He'll likely be a mid-merge if not early merge boot.  But good for him, I now expect him to make the jury phase.  But here's another thing.  He may be kept around because people like him so much for his good vibes. 

Soda: Rubbing people wrong way
I'm sorry, but her calling Venus a stick bug during the challenge is not much better than someone calling her a heavier animal like an elephant or hippo.  I wonder if that'll come up in the future.  I can see her as someone Nima players are willing to turn against even post-merge.

Moriah: Lost ally, now what?
It was not good for Mo who lost her closest ally in Jem, and who I believe was also left out of the vote.  So Charlie's Angels is dissolved since Charlie and Maria chose the boys.  It'll be interesting to see how Mo recovers, but she's likely going to be an easy boot along the way.

Q: Meat shield alliance unlikely
I can't see it holding up or working.  But it was a good idea.  It could end up being the majority group post-merge, but I feel like we saw something like this in recent seasons only for it to be dissolved rather quickly.  Q will need it if he wants to get far, though.

Liz: Ammo for Soda blindside
Liz voiced in Ep. 4 that she wants Soda gone, so if it's Tevin or Hunter leading the charge, she will be extra ammo for them in terms of vote numbers.  But that's all she's gonna be, and she could get dragged to the end, but Liz is not winning.  At least not from what we've seen so far.

Venus: Lay low, find bond
Venus is still seemingly missing a tight bond with another player.  Maybe she can join up with the Yanu 3, maybe she can join up with Siga.  But unless she does, she'll be an easy post-merge boot.  Also, she should've stuck on Hunter a little longer.  Shame for her.  It could've been much later in the day Hunter found the advantage, but it didn't look like it by the sun.  

Hunter: From fewest to most
Confessionals on his tribe, that is.  Crazy how that happened in one episode this close to the merge.  But Hunter got 10 confessionals, helped by the Journey he went on and the fact he was the one to risk his vote.  Awesome of him to also find the Beware Advantage without anyone knowing.  Like Bruce last season, he'll probably be given a chance to find the key before they have to leave.  Or perhaps everyone else'll be coming to Nima beach.  They likely have the best camp.

Charlie: Keep Ben around long
That's what Charlie needs to do.  He's set up well, with Tim and Ben as likelier targets before himself.  Would Maria be a target before him as well?  Hard to say.  Fortunately, Charlie got his way and got to keep his bromance with Ben.

Maria: Why waste extra vote?
It is puzzling.  Her decision to vote out Jem wasn't as much, but her decision to waste her extra vote on her was not as clear.  Will it be clear to the rest of her Siga tribemates that she used her extra vote and not Ben having a vote?  Also, her decision to turn on Jem will loom large and will likely be one of a few that'll make or break her game.

Tevin: Lack of recent content
He had a little bit in the prior episode when he voiced how he wanted Soda out.  But he hasn't gotten too much since Ep. 3.  He had stuff about his dad and cleaning the fish, which was good.  I just worry we're maybe being set up for a potential blindside for him...

Tiffany: Best positioned player left?
She might be.  First off, Yanu will not be looked at as threats come the merge since there'll only be 3 of them.  Second, if a Yanu member is targeted, it'll likely be both Kenzie and Q before her; Kenzie for her social game and Q for his physical game.  Tiffany might be the Yam-Yam of this season...

And to our departed player...

Jem: Couldn't be more off
Last week I was singing Jem's praises, and even made her my #1.  Whoopsie!  That has maybe only happened once before to me.  I'll try not to make the same mistake.  Anyway, Jem way overplayed and didn't foster enough trust with Maria.  She probably in this situation should've shared her idol with Maria and Mo so the target could have shifted to Tim.  The key to surviving the pre-merge is laying low and going with the flow, and Jem played the pre-merge like the post-merge.  Not smart.  Oh well.

New power rankings!  Obviously there'll be a new #1, but what else will change in the order?

13. Tim (-1)
12. Soda (-1)
11. Moriah (-1)
10. Liz (-2)
9. Kenzie (+4)
8. Venus (-1)
7. Q (+2)
6. Ben (+6)
5. Tevin (-2)
4. Maria (0)
3. Charlie (+2)
2. Hunter (+4)
1. Tiffany (+1)

Biggest rise: Ben (+6)
Biggest fall: Liz and Tevin (-2)  Although if Jem was here she'd be minus 13. 

Another week, another new #1.  Hopefully, I'm not starting a curse and I didn't just curse Tiffany.  I like Yanu's players' chances now that the merge is coming, as they all rose this week.  They just need to survive the divided tribes.  I like Ben's chances a lot more.  He's right at that fine line of being too likable to be voted out.  Hunter rises a bit, he'll likely get an idol and hopefully he'll be able to get some immunities through challenges.  And Tiff... well, I like her chances of being able to fly under the radar and avoid the target.  We'll see.

After Episode 6 Four Word Game

Tim: Becoming a bigger player
Tim went from invisible to being a focal point of the game.  I do still worry about his short-term chances, as Yanu could stick with Nami and keep picking off Siga.  Doubtful, but it wouldn't shock me.  It was, however, good to see Tim being more involved.  Although I feel like he should've told Maria about the plus one alliance before Q approached her.  

Soda: Felt bad for orange
During the challenge.  For obvious reasons.  But she and they did surprisingly well, but it wasn't enough.  I was pretty surprised to see Soda's name NOT come up at the vote.  I was thinking some of the Nami would turn on her, but I think they wanted a Siga out first.  Will they be willing to turn on each other now?  Possibly.

Liz: Finale goat in making
Like Heather in 41, Romeo in 42, Heidi in 44, and Jake in 45, Liz is a finale goat in the making.  Sometimes you can just see these players from a mile away.  She was the only player shut out of confessionals for the merge episode, so not good. 

Kenzie: Mastermind not mentioned, yet
We know that Bhanu outed Kenzie as a "mastermind" at the journey he went to with Ben and Liz, yet that didn't seem to come up.  That could be because Kenzie was safe.  I still worry she may become a target, but there is that chance it becomes forgotten about and isn't mentioned again and Kenzie can get by in this game.  My original winner pick still has a shot.

Venus: Cold can't warm up
Venus even mentioned in a confessional she has a cold heart, and while she tried to warm up to Siga and Bhanu players, it didn't seem to work.  Q seemed frustrated with her, and it seems Siga will learn like Nami that she can't be trusted.  She may have survived this past vote, but in the new era, these players don't last long.

Q: Took too much control?
It did seem like Q was almost too much of a focal point, like he's being set up for a downfall.  I don't like it for him.  He had that direct conversation with Mo at tribal and I could see the other non-Yanu players bring his name up, with Tiffany maybe having to debate on whether to play her idol on him.  

Ben: Personable guy largely absent
Ben was maybe the most invisible player this past episode after Liz, which was surprising.  He was featured at the feast, shown being unwilling to throw out a Siga name.  I do still like his chances since there will be larger threats than him, but could he win a jury vote?  Over certain people, maybe...

Tevin: Needs a big move
Doesn't he?  Or at least an episode where he takes control, like orchestrating a blindside of Soda.  It seems like Tevin has just been there.  He's still a frontrunner to win for sure, but he'll need something on his résumé.

Maria: Turned on both women
Two episodes in a row Maria turned on Jem now Mo.  It sure seemed like they were being set up as a power alliance in the first couple episodes, but she's chosen the men.  And honestly, it might actually be the smart move.  I think it'd be easier for Maria to beat Ben and Tim in the finals than Mo or Jem.

Charlie: Name up, not concerning
I knew when Venus threw Charlie's name out that he wasn't going to actually be a serious target.  It's very rare in Survivor when someone's name comes up that late and they end up going or even getting multiple votes.  I'm not sure what Charlie's plan is, which is concerning for his chances.  Is he Siga strong or go with the flow?  He doesn't seem to be a part of the plus one alliance.  But I will say that was smart of him to vote Venus in case Mo's shot in the dark worked.  Someone should've done that last season in the Kaleb SITD vote.

Hunter: Tevin causing threat level
It has now been two episodes in a row that Tevin has made a slight jab at Hunter in the challenge.  He's doing it on purpose so people see Hunter as the bigger threat between the two.  I do believe the editors included these instances on purpose and I believe Hunter's threat level will become an issue, and likely soon.  Good thing he was able to find that idol just in time.  And I think Hunter will know when to or not to play it.

Tiffany: Can't lose allies soon
Tiffany will likely have two shields in Q and Kenzie, unless she gets targeted to make them weaker.  But she cannot afford to lose them too quickly.  It'll be interesting to see if the old Yanu tribe members get targeted next episode or not, with perhaps someone bringing up the Tika 3 from 44.  I would.  

And to our departed player...

Moriah: Bad luck, poor play
Mo got screwed by being on the worst of the two teams for the mergatory challenge.  And the fact her tribe didn't really back her sucked too.  But she played the mergatory pretty poorly, first lying about their past vote and being Siga strong, then attempting to come clean at tribal.  By that point, it was too late, and Siga members took that as a sign that they were making the right move in cutting her loose.  

New Power Rankings!  Double boot next episode, so I kind of have to factor that in.  

12. Tim (+1)
11. Venus (-3)
10. Q (-3)
9. Soda (+3)
8. Liz (+2)
7. Charlie (-4)
6. Kenzie (+3)
5. Ben (+1)
4. Maria (0)
3. Tevin (+2)
2. Tiffany (-1)
1. Hunter (+1)

Biggest rise: Soda and Kenzie (+3)
Biggest fall: Charlie (-4)

The bottom 5 are pretty interchangeable to me, and I feel like Tim, Venus, Q, and Soda are likely next potential targets, with Liz being a dispensable vote at some point.  The next four are also interchangeable, and I just moved Charlie down since his name came up.  Tiffany and Hunter switch, although I like Hunter's chances a tad more.  He may be a bigger target and threat, but he has numbers and he's been showcased a lot in the last two episodes.  I think Q and Tim like him.  Also, I like having new #1's. :)

After Episode Several Four Word Game

Venus: Unliked target somehow surviving
And it's not really through her own doing.  There have been other or bigger fish to fry.  How long Venus lasts will depend on how well the current group is vibing and if they want to turn on each other or just go with the easy vote in Venus.  Her taking credit for Soda's blindside was not smart and will only lead to her being a bigger target.  But everyone knows she can't win, so she's not a threat to win. 

Q: Commanding demeanor overwhelming some
Q has a way of almost demanding votes go a certain way, which is starting to rub people the wrong way, including his former Yanu tribemates in Kenzie and Tiffany.  They obviously want to keep him as a number as he won't turn on them (at least not for a while), but they'll need to cut ties with him if a majority of the rest want him gone.  I can't see Q making it too much further.

Liz: Purpled player this season
I hate to say it, it's Liz.  There's always someone who gets fairly far who does not get enough screen time.  It's been Heather, Romeo, Cassidy (sort of), Lauren, and Julie.  This season it's definitely Liz.  I feel bad for her.  She's a tagalong with no shot of winning.  But I don't think she's there to win.  She's there for the adventure and to her daughter what she could be capable of.

Charlie: Crap hand, great result
Charlie could not have been screwed over more with the way the teams were divided and the fact that Maria won immunity.  However, his name was almost instantly thrown out and not considered.  This could be attributed to the massive cracks on Nima, but I think it's also due to Charlie's social game.  He's playing great.

Kenzie: Crazy good social game
Here's the thing: If Kenzie lost at the finale or was an upcoming boot, they would not have shown the scene where she comforts Ben after his anxiety attack.  That easily could've been cut.  So I think she either wins or is the final boss.  Her social game is crazy good, and even if she loses Q and/or Tiff, I think she'll still be in a great spot.  And my theory about all the new era winners having great smiles would ring true if Kenzie wins.

Ben: That did not rock
Had to quote Ben on this one.  He lost a close ally in Tim and his numbers are dwindling.  However, the silver lining in that is that he's less threatening.  I still think Ben can win, but his odds keep getting slimmer since Siga's numbers keep dwindling.  But he definitely comes off with people better than I thought he would.

Maria: Another unlikely Mom winner
I say "Mom" since older lady takes up two words, but it still applies.  Anyway, I do respect Maria's game, but it's getting harder to envision her winning a jury vote if she gets to the end.  I'm thinking she'll join the likes of Heather, Heidi, and Julie, and either fall short of FTC or lose it at the end.

Tevin: Smart move, save later
Tevin clearly was the one who orchestrated the Soda blindside, yet he voted for Venus.  This keeps his hands clean, although if he wants to take credit for it at a FTC situation, his credibility may be questioned.  Still, I think it was smart and hopefully he keeps his mouth shut about it until the FTC, if he makes it there.

Tiffany: Not enough winner content
I don't know what it is, but I don't think we've gotten enough winner-focused content on Tiffany, if that makes sense.  She's playing a really good game, but she doesn't scream "winner" to me.  A late-merge blindside, possibly.  She'll definitely need to cut Kenzie if she's gonna win.

Hunter: Threat level somehow manageable
If Hunter really had a large level of threat in the game, he likely goes home last night.  Q stated he thinks he can take Hunter in challenges, which honestly, is laughable.  He didn't do any better than Hunter in the tribe portion of the game.  Hunter smartly did not play his idol, but I'm sure he was tempted.  Shows he trusts Q and the Yanu's.  I could see the finale made up of only Yanu's and Nima's.

And to our two departed players...

Tim: Needed more funny moments
Tim showed on occasion he has a good sense of humor, and I wish we could've seen more of it.  But when he got skunked in the pre-merge, we knew it was likely he was the final boot before the jury.  Weird how often it's been a black man.  Dwight, Sifu, now Tim.  

Soda: Fantastic exit, likable player
Over recent weeks I grew to dislike Soda, which was the editors hope, I assume.  But she had a great exit and I felt bad for her.  It made me wish Venus had gone instead.  I'm sure Soda will make for some great reaction moments on the jury; I can't wait.

New power rankings!  Down to the final 10.  I'm going to shake things up again.  I mean, I always do.

10. Q (0)
9. Venus (+2)
8. Liz (0)
7. Ben (-2)
6. Maria (-2)
5. Charlie (+2)
4. Hunter (-3)
3. Tiffany (-1)
2. Tevin (+1)
1. Kenzie (+5)

Biggest rise: Kenzie (+5)
Biggest fall: Hunter (-3)

Oddly, Hunter had the biggest fall, but he had a really good episode, considering.  It's just the two that jumped him had better ones, in my opinion.  To me, Q and Venus are very likely upcoming targets, with the remaining Siga (Ben, Maria, Charlie) in the middle due to me not knowing if they'll be targeted next or forgotten about.  Kenzie rises up and my OG winner pick is back at the #1 spot.

After Episode 8 Four Word Game

Q: Always must get way
Q seems like the kind of guy that always has to get his way.  He's used to it in his professional life, clearly.  As soon as he heard he'd be in the minority, he wanted to throw in the towel because he couldn't get his way.  I was starting to think he may be getting almost a winner's edit this episode, but the ending ruined it.

Venus: Always the second option
It seems like Venus is going to almost always get votes as long as she's in the game, in case the target plays an idol or SITD.  She may set a record of some kind, either for total votes or for consecutive tribals getting votes.  But Tevin was constantly throwing a vote her way and now he's gone.

Liz: Most OOLF move ever
I had to abbreviate, because I had to include this all.  OOLF meaning Out Of Left Field, meaning it came out of nowhere.  Liz was the most invisible character but came out of nowhere to make this blindside.  We haven't seen a move like this ever.  The closest thing would be Erika taking out Shan in 41.  This will definitely make her rise in my rankings, but others may take notice of this move and target her next.  That wouldn't surprise me.

Ben: May get forgotten about
Which is a good thing, at least for him to get further in the game.  I believe Ben's connections to Charlie and Kenzie will keep him safe.  And I am so with him in being done with the tribal council shenanigans.  It was too much.  

Maria: Will be a kingmaker
I don't believe Maria is going to win.  Yes she's very smart and has the chops to do it, but so did Boston Rob in Winners at War.  I think she's going to be someone's kingmaker, whether it be Charlie, Q, or Ben.  I think she'll end up being a kind of sacrifice for one of their winning games.

Charlie: Most level-headed player
This season is pretty crazy.  It's crazy enough that I think a very level-headed player will win.  Someone who can survive and stay calm in the chaos.  That could be Charlie.  Everyone else seems to either get too chaotic or doesn't have enough strategic game acumen.  

Hunter: Not enough strategic acumen
Hunter may become a challenge beast, but a couple clues stood out from this past episode for me that made me realize he probably won't win, even if he gets to the end.  One, Kenzie's comment about being surprised Hunter was strategizing.  And two, him being left out of a majority of the conversations (and the vote) at the live tribal.  He lost his closest ally and it would take an insane social and strategic game from this point for him to win.

Tiffany: Name throwing not terrible
Not like Q made it out to be.  Q blew a ton of things out of proportion this past episode, including the fact that Tiffany threw out Maria's name.  Although, she maybe should've known Q well enough by that point than to do that, since she had been with him since Day 1.  She survived this scare with her name being thrown out there, can she possibly do it again?  And can her relationship with Q be repaired?

Kenzie: Social butterfly floats on
Like Ben, I think Kenzie will get by due to people liking to talk with her and wanting to work with her.  She's not one to act rashly or with too much emotion, although she can get teary-eyed pretty easily.  For her sake, we can only hope she can stay this way and make smart moves going forward.

And to our departed player...

Tevin: Most shocking recent ouster
In my opinion, Tevin's "ouster" was one of the more shocking and out-of-left-field vote outs in quite some time, perhaps in the entire new era.  He had the opening narration, he was featured fairly heavily in the promo for this season, yet... he's an early merge boot.  Guess you can't fully trust those things.  

New power rankings!  Oh man, I have no idea how I'm going to rank them now.  If Tevin can be voted out... yikes.  I have to be careful.

9. Venus (0)
8. Hunter (-4)
7. Q (+3)
6. Liz (+2)
5. Maria (+1)
4. Ben (+3)
3. Tiffany (0)
2. Kenzie (-1)
1. Charlie (+4)

Biggest rise: Charlie (+4), also Ben and Q (+3) and Liz (+2)
Biggest fall: Hunter: (-4)

I had to do it.  I had to move my boy Hunter down to 8.  He was the only other one who didn't vote for Tevin.  Is the Six/Plus One Alliance finished?  Probably.  Charlie shoots up because I feel his law background will really help him stay cool in moments of chaos, and I feel this season is only getting started with the chaos.  Would he beat either of the Yanu women in the final 3?  Maybe not, but who's to say they even get there?  

After Episode 9 Four Word Game

Q: Respect all but gone
Q is going to need some sort of miraculous recovery if he is going to win.  Not only does he lose in most final 3's, but he's also a likely upcoming boot.  Crazier things have happened.  He is a very good persuader.  But no one wanting to talk to him this past episode is very telling.

Venus: She's trying, credit her
I give Venus all the credit in the world--she may be the most active player in the game, or one of them at least.  Problem is, no one respects her.  At least she isn't sitting on her hands like Romeo.  

Liz: Ultimate underdog story there
Sure, she got upset that Q "stole her thunder", but she can still bring it up at the end if she makes it there.  I'm liking her chances a lot more now, but she's been too under-edited to be our likely winner.

Maria: Slightly vocal, still shadowed
Still in Charlie's shadow, so she'll have to take him out before the end if she's gonna have a shot.  We do occasionally get to hear from her, but not enough.  She's still viewed as Charlie's #2.

Ben: Most middling game here
Like Austin last season, Ben is playing a very middling game and could garner a few jury votes.  He'd need the ideal F3, which I'm not sure can include Charlie or Maria.  But I feel he could beat Liz, Venus, or Q.

Tiffany: Target ever still present
She didn't play her idol even though she said she would, but fortunately for her, she didn't even get one vote.  She may be able to slip on by since no one will want to vote for her due to the threat of her idol.

Kenzie: Bhanu was absolutely right
She's the mermaid dragon, just like Bhanu said.  Nice and pretty up front but will get you from behind.  Reminds me a lot of Dee last season.  Will anyone notice and target her, though?

Charlie: Shades of Tommy, perhaps?
Charlie's game is starting to remind me of Tommy's from 39, who of course ended up winning, with Maria being Lauren.  I think that is a more apt comparison than Malcolm and Denise.  No one wants to target Charlie because they like having him around and working with him.

And to our departed player...

Hunter: ALWAYS play your idol!
When you're likely in danger, always play your idol.  He heard his name.  He told people about his idol.  Dude, just play it.  Huge blunder and misplay by Hunter, and honestly, he couldn't have handled it much worse.  It's a shame.

New power rankings!  A lot the same, with a couple changes.

8. Q (-1)
7. Maria (-2)
6. Venus (+3)
5. Liz (+1)
4. Tiffany (-1)
3. Ben (+1)
2. Kenzie (0)
1. Charlie (0)

Biggest rise: Venus (+3)
Biggest fall: Maria (-2)

Maria falls due to her lack of content, although I don't think she'll get targeted anytime soon.  I think the majority are going to let Venus get by since they don't consider her a threat, which is why I moved her up.  Tiffany falls due to being a target, although she still has her idol and likely has more game savvy than Hunter to know when to play it.  Ben moves up because middling games often win if all the threats turn on each other.  

After Episode 10 Four Word Game

Q: Choices both good, bad
Now, Q was under no obligation to take Liz on the reward, but he had a chance to mend a bridge with her and possibly gain an ally.  He really could've used it to potentially build a connection, and I bet it would've factored in to Liz's decision making in the future.  I did like him taking Maria, but I didn't like him taking Tiff and Kenzie, who both had already severed ties with him.  

Maria: That her "Shan" move?
Erika made a name for herself with the Shan blindside in 41.  Did Maria do the same with the Tiff blindside?  Possibly.  That was her move.  She also got a lot more content.  I feel better about a Tiff win at this point than I did a Heidi or Julie win.

Venus: Becoming the quiet goat
There's now two loud goats in Q and Liz, so I guess that makes Venus the quiet goat.  The majority must be careful, otherwise the goats will outnumber them and we'll get a Gabon-type finish.  I still don't think Venus has a shot, but I don't think she's on anyone's radar, either.

Liz: Wrong emotion to display
Imagine if instead of screaming at Q, Liz started bawling and sobbing.  That would've looked much better for her, and would've had more people feeling sympathetic.  Instead, you had Q feeling like he still owed her nothing.  She handled it fairly decently afterward, but I think for her long-term game, sadness/crying would've been better.  I get it, she is so depleted she wasn't in much control of her emotions.  But she should've channeled her outburst into sadness, not anger.  

Ben: Sympathy for Liz unsurprising
Ben's a good guy, but I wasn't completely on board with how sympathetic he was toward Liz.  She was owed nothing.  Q promised her nothing.  That didn't exactly paint Ben in the best light.  Ben's likely a casualty of Charlie and Maria's near the finale.

Kenzie: Shield gone, now what?
Left out of the vote, lost her shield in Tiffany, no idol, and Kenzie is not particularly good at challenges.  She's not sunk, but she'll have to work hard to recover her game.  I think she's built good enough connections with Ben and the Sigas, but she no longer has anyone in the game, really.  One good thing, she'll likely get Tiff's vote at the end since she didn't turn on her.

Charlie: Challenge threat status unlocked
Two immunity challenge wins means Charlie may get talked about as an immunity challenge threat.  Fortunately, he has Maria and Ben in his corner, and they'd be unwise to turn on him even at this point.  But I worry around F6 or F5, that he may become a target.  Good thing Hunter is out, and Q likely soon too.

And to our departed player...

Tiffany: Suspicion should have risen
Tiffany mentioned she heard no other names being mentioned, which should have been a bit of an alarm bell/red flag for her.  Yes, Q was a huge target, but your idol is common knowledge.  Either play it or talk to people and see if you can suss them out.  She kept saying she was gonna play it.  Let this be a lesson to future players.  Play your dang idols!

And our new power rankings.  Down to 7!  Crazy how there are technically 3 "goats" in the game.  They are one vote away from making up half the players left.  Crazy.  You could call Ben "half" a goat, since he's mostly been tagging along.  

7. Q (+1)
6. Liz (-1)
5. Ben (-2)
4. Venus (+2)
3. Kenzie (-1)
2. Maria (+5)
1. Charlie (0)

Biggest rise: Maria (+5)
Biggest fall: Ben (-2)

I so debated on putting Maria at #1, but I couldn't do it.  I feel like others will catch on to her, too.  And I want one more decent episode from her.  Liz falls due to her outburst likely causing her to lose at FTC.  Ben and Venus are just kind of there, and Charlie retains the top spot.  He's still in a great spot.  But he could be similar to Matty in Gabon, where he might have to win fire or he's done.  We shall see.

After Episode 11 Four Word Game

Q: Maria's protection saving him
We still have to wait and see for Maria if aligning with Q was smart, but Q choosing to accept her help certainly was smart for him.  He is still in the game despite being mentioned or getting votes at the last four tribals.  Crazy.  She might go before him.

Liz: Burying the hatchet, temporarily
Liz does not like Q, clearly.  But she seems to have buried the hatchet for the betterment of her game.  If she's smart enough, which I think she is, she'll realize she can beat him at the end.  But I'm actually starting to feel a bit bad for her and her lack of food.

Ben: Vote wasn't indicative, clearly
Ben made it clear he wanted Venus out, yet he voted "Kensie".  Which is a bit surprising, since they bonded over his nighttime panic attack not too long ago.  But it was merely a vote in case Venus whipped out an idol, so that they wouldn't be behooved to who Venus voted for.

Kenzie: Unthreatening, need F3 Path
Not too long ago I thought Kenzie was the best-positioned player in the game.  She had Tiff, and she had a closer bond with Ben.  Now, she's kind of on her own and it seems she'll need to join up with a couple others.  But here's the thing: She's not a threat... at all.  She's not labeled to being too close to anyone, so if she can find a way to get to F3, she may be golden.

Maria: Threat level too high
It always happens.  Either the mom figures make no moves and they don't get respected for their gameplay, or they make a move and get labeled a huge threat and get taken out.  It's not fair.  Fortunately, Maria has Q and kind of Ben, but Charlie is thinking of making a move to turn on her.

Charlie: So much focused content
We have gotten so much content from Charlie's perspective and his point of view.  He's either being set up for a Jesse-like downfall or he's winning.  Usually the winners aren't this obvious, which worries me for Charlie.  He is getting his way and no one is considering him a threat, somehow.  But I worry that day may come soon for him.

And to our departed player...

Venus: Be forthcoming or nothing
What I mean is, Venus was too wishy-washy and too in the middle with how she negotiated with Charlie.  She dangled that she had an idol/advantage with Charlie but didn't say exactly what, which is just as bad since now Charlie is picking up a red flag without the benefit of earning your trust.  She should've either told him outright or not said anything and been more diplomatic.  It's like dangling food in front of a starving dog.  If you don't do it, the dog probably won't bite you.  If you give it to him, again, won't bite you.  But if you dangle it and take it away, it'll probably bite you.  She dangled it in front of Charlie and it cost her.

New power rankings!  Another bit of a shakeup.  I think just 2 episodes left.  Wow.  Anyway, here's the ranking:

6. Q (+1)
5. Maria (-3)
4. Liz (+2)
3. Ben (+2)
2. Charlie (-1)
1. Kenzie (+2)

Biggest rise: Liz, Ben, and Kenzie (+2)
Biggest fall: Maria (-3)

Q stays at the bottom... again.  Maria falls due to her exceedingly high threat level.  Liz and Ben are just there, and it's almost a guarantee one or both are Final Tribal Council goats.  Charlie and Kenzie remain the frontrunners, and if either can get to the end without the other, they're winning.  Assuming Maria is taken out by then, as well.  Kenzie rises higher because she's likely to be seen as less threatening and likelier to not be a target at F6 or F5 than Charlie.

After Episode 12 Four Word Game

Maria: Rock, hard place, Maria
I think Maria just put herself in a really tough spot by sticking with Q so much and by targeting Charlie.  Now he knows he can't work with her again, so she's on her own now and essentially has to win immunity.  Not only that, after that vote, I don't believe Maria can win if she sits next to Charlie or Kenzie at the end.

Liz: Happy to be there
Liz is just happy to be there, isn't she?  She just wants to prove to her daughter she can last all 26 days, so she probably will get to the Final Tribal Council.  Her comment at tribal council saying, "so don't vote me out, please!" just screamed someone who just wants to get as far as possible, regardless if they win.

Ben: Biggest potential Kenzie cheerleader
Again, we saw a segment of Ben's night terrors, and I think the editors are trying to reinforce in our minds why Kenzie wins, and also how Ben is likely her biggest cheerleader.  So perhaps he does not make it to the final tribal council, and ends up being the best jury member Kenzie could possibly have.

Charlie: Threat level finally noticed
Took long enough, didn't it?  But Charlie seems to be lesser of a target than Maria, so if she doesn't win F5 immunity, he should be safe.  Kenzie and Liz will want to take her out over him.  But Charlie will likely have to either win F4 immunity or Fire to get to the end, but I think he stands a decent chance at doing one of those.

Kenzie: Her winning path set
The last three seasons (Counting this one), the eventual winner has had a winning path and navigated it and won.  Yam-Yam and Dee did what they needed to do.  I think Kenzie has that winning path.  I think she even beats Charlie in a FTC vote, although it might be 5-3 like Dee's was over Austin last season.

And to our departed player...

Q: Entertaining to the end
Leave it to Q to complete the Four-peat of people being voted out with idols in their possession.  Amazing.  This one season will have ripple effects in future seasons, where idols will be played much more often, whether they need to be or not.  But Q, well I hope he returns because he was a heck of a player and character.

Final power ranking!  Who is winning this thing?  I think I made that obvious, but here's my final ranking:

5. Ben (-2)
4. Maria (+1)
3. Liz (+1)
2. Charlie (0)
1. Kenzie: (0)

Biggest (and only) rises: Maria and Liz (+1)
Biggest fall: Ben (-2)

Feels weird pushing Maria up after that episode, but I had to drop Ben down.  Ben isn't beating Maria at the end, and I think he too has a tough time getting to the end, although maybe not quite as tough.  He just has virtually no game, unlike everyone else, including Liz.  She at least will get some sympathy from the jury for her struggles with lack of food.  Ben has his night terrors, but if he's sitting next to Kenzie, that'll only make her look better.  So my F3 prediction is Liz, Charlie, and Kenzie.  

So like I've done in seasons past, I'm going to rank the remaining players with the jury to see how likely they are to get their votes.  Again, this is just my gut feeling and I could be completely wrong.  I mean, I had Austin ranked last for Kendra last season, and she ended up voting for him.  

Soda: Kenzie, Maria, Charlie, Liz, Ben
Tevin: Kenzie, Liz, Charlie, Maria, Ben
Hunter: Charlie, Kenzie, Liz, Maria, Ben
Tiffany: Kenzie, Maria, Charlie, Liz, Ben
Venus: Kenzie, Charlie, Liz, Ben, Maria
Q: Maria, Charlie, Ben, Kenzie, Liz

So I'll give 5 points if someone is someone else's favorite, 4 if they're 2nd favorite, and so on.  Here's how they'd stand here:

Kenzie: 26
Charlie: 22
Maria: 18
Liz: 15
Ben: 9

Kenzie the frontrunner, followed not too far behind by Charlie.  Maria, even if she gets there, needs to get there against Liz and Ben.  Now let's see how the Final 5 views everyone else in the Final 5, in case they get voted out (or eliminated at fire) before Final 3.

Kenzie: Ben, Charlie, Liz, Maria
Charlie: Maria, Ben, Kenzie, Liz
Maria: Charlie, Ben, Kenzie, Liz
Liz: Kenzie, Charlie, Ben, Maria
Ben: Kenzie, Charlie, Maria, Liz

Now using 4 as the favorite and 3 as the 2nd favorite, we add those to their previous scores and get...

Kenzie: 26 + 12 = 38
Charlie: 22 + 13 = 35
Maria: 18 + 8 = 26
Liz: 15 + 5 = 20
Ben: 9 + 12 = 21

One change is Ben does slightly better now than Liz.  But Kenzie retains her lead, although it's slightly narrower.  So she's the favorite in my opinion, with Charlie as the next best chance.  We shall see next week.  I'll update after the finale with a final 4 word game and my closing thoughts.  See you then!

After Finale/Episode 13 Four Word Game

Ben: Rocked hard, underrated game
If I was on the jury, I seriously would've considered throwing a vote Ben's way.  He didn't betray anyone in the game, he was virtually always a man of his word, and he had a great social game.  Anyone who knows Ben should be proud of him and his game, despite getting 0 votes.  IMO, his and Carolyn's games are the two best 0-vote finalist games of the New Era. (Sorry Xander, Romeo, Owen, and Jake).

Maria: Remaining cast against her
Maybe not so much Charlie, who warmed back up to her, but Kenzie and Liz were against her enough to conspire together in a challenge to take her out.  Liz, obviously going out to get Kenzie's plank was proof, but Kenzie also could've stopped it and said no.  Anyway, it took that to get her out of the game, otherwise, Maria was likely winning.  She was likely either winning F4 immunity or fire.  Also, her vote for Kenzie instead of Charlie spoke volumes--but she shouldn't be blamed for who she felt deserved to win.

Liz: Most delusional player ever?
Liz might be.  She's up there with Coach, Debbie, and Phillip.  She thought she would've won if she made Final 3 and thought she had the best game.  She probably even loses to Ben in a F2 situation.  Hey, she made it 25/26 days, so if she was playing for her daughter, that's certainly something to prove to her.

Charlie: Gamebots can't beat butterflies
Social butterflies, that is.  And what I mean by Gamebot is someone who plays a very solid game, lays it out well, but doesn't do much to win over the jury emotionally.  Spencer had this problem in 31.  Stephen did in 18 as well.  A jury will always pick a social butterfly, someone who just connects with people, over someone who played a solid game but didn't connect to people as much, which is why I think Yam-Yam still would've beaten Carson in 44.  

Kenzie: Social mastermind never targeted
Kenzie is up there with Yam-Yam in terms of social games in the New Era.  Crazy enough, she was outed by Bhanu as this social mastermind, so Ben and Liz were extremely aware of it (the two that went on that one journey with Bhanu), but they chose to ignore it and work with Kenzie instead of targeting her.  That's likely due to Kenzie warming up to them, which likely won her the game.  She had a stray vote from Ben, but that's it.  You don't have to pull off blindsides, execute 3-2-1 votes, or any flashy moves like that to play a great game.  You just have to get people to like you.  

Well, that does it for 46.  It had a rough start with the Bhanu episodes and Yanu struggling, but it sure got better around the merge.  And for the second time in the New Era, my winner pick won!  My other winner pick that won being Maryanne.  That also makes 4/6 New Era winners female, but continues the trend of two females, two males, so will we see a male winner next season?  Time will tell.  See you then!