Survivor 46 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 46 is almost here and the cast has been released, and as always, I will be making my predictions for the season.  I'll go through each cast member, give them a couple comparable players (who they either remind me of or may play like or have a similar result to), and talk about what I expect from them.  I'll also give them a predicted range of 6 spots, such as 12th-7th, 16th-11th, etc., like I always do.  Last season, I got 9/18 right, which was an improvement from 8/18 the season before, so I hope to get 10 right for this season.  I'll organize them alphabetically by first name so I can find them easier later on.  And for the first time, I'm going to watch a video of theirs that Survivor posted to get more of a feel for them as a player.  Hopefully, that'll help my accuracy.  And also for the first time, I'll indicate their starting tribe to even further help me narrow down who may be on a weak tribe.

Ben Katzmann, 31, Musician from Miami, FL SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: Benjamin "Coach" Wade, Cody Assenmacher
Ben is certainly "out there", with a personality that will undoubtedly take up television screens.  The question is if he will rub people the wrong way like Coach (also, oddly, named Ben) or if he will fit in like Cody.  I think there will be one person who is annoyed by him like Katurah was with Bruce.  I think that'll be either Jem or Moriah.  But either way, I don't see him gelling as well as Cody or having control over a group like Coach had.  I wouldn't be shocked at an early boot, but I'd be shocked if he won.  
Predicted finish: 14th-9th

Bhanu Gopal, 41, IT Quality Analyst from Acton, MA YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Sean Edwards, Yam-Yam Arocho
Bhanu, like Yam-Yam, is gay with an accent.  But I cannot see him having as much success as Yam-Yam.  I see him having a similar arc to Sean from 45.  I don't expect him to quit at all, but I could see Bhanu being swap-screwed or being left out of a vote.  He is one of the oldest.  If he's with Jess (which I predict) and the other four are against them, he may be in trouble.  But if his tribe is strong, he could make the early part of the merge.  Funny how his first name rhymes with his tribe name.  Wonder if that'll be mentioned.
Predicted finish: 15th-10th
CORRECT, 15th.  Although barely, and I have Randen's med-evac to thank for Bhanu lasting to 15, haha.

Charlie Davis, 26, Law Student from Boston, MA SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: Carson Garrett, Spencer Bledsoe
I swear they only look for certain white guys, and often they have a law background.  Anyway, I don't see Charlie winning; at best I see him as a losing finalist like Jake last season or Spencer in 31.  He may be able to luck his way into a majority alliance, which would certainly help carry him further, but even then I can't see him winning.  I can see him being slightly annoying to his tribemates based on what I saw in his video, so I could see him being a late pre-merge/early merge boot.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

David "Jelinsky" Jelinsky, 22, Slot Machine Salesman from Las Vegas, NV YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Sami Layadi, Will Wahl
Jelinky is a young male from Las Vegas, just like Sami.  He also reminds me a bit of Will Wahl, and I think he'll be likable and personable enough to get by in this game.  Unless he's dumb, he should get to the merge, and as you may see, I think he'll ride the coattail of Kenzie.  I think he's going to think he has more power in the game than he actually does.  He's got a lot of potential for being a big blindside.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
WRONG, 18th.  Guess he was dumb!  All he needed to do was lay low, not volunteer for things, and if he had to do something (like "Sweat"), give it his all and not give up and he'd still be in the game.

Hunter McKnight, 28, Science Teacher from French Camp, MS NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: Tommy Sheehan, Jake O'Kane
Hunter would have to do something incredibly stupid to get voted out pre-merge.  He's almost too perfect of a player.  His main issue will be lowering his threat level, and if he doesn't, he will be a target come the merge, unless he always finds himself in the majority, which I doubt.  I'll definitely be rooting for him, but I just don't see him getting to the end due to the threat level he will undoubtedly obtain.  He may save himself from the first few pre-merge tribals due to twists, immunity, or having the majority at the time, but I can't see it all the way to the end.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th
CORRECT, 9th.  I was right that his main issue would be lowering his threat level.  Too big a threat to win.

Jemila "Jem" Hussain-Adams, 32, International Brand Mentor from Chicago, IL SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: J.Maya, Sandra Diaz-Twine
She seems like someone who will go with the flow and maybe try to make a big move late, which is certainly a potential recipe for success.  Her biggest obstacle will be surviving the pre-merge, which is never a guarantee for females/weak males.  However, I do not think she is the weakest person in her tribe, and I see her likely making the merge unless her tribe really struggles, which you can never rule out.  But I think she may come across as too likable (and become an eventual target) or she won't make big enough moves to win.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 14th.  She overplayed her hand, big time.  Her tribe did not "really struggle", yet she did not survive the pre-merge.  Yikes.

Jessica "Jess" Chong, 37, Software Engineer from San Francisco, CA YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Jenny Kim, Gabby Pascuzzi
She's a software engineer, so she's definitely smart and we'll definitely see her on the puzzle section of challenges.  Her tribe is potentially stacked and well-rounded, so hopefully, for her, they won't be attending too many pre-merge tribals.  I have this nagging feeling that she may demonstrate her smarts or puzzle prowess and it'll put a target on her back shortly after the merge.  But she's got this silliness that may endear her to others and get her to last further.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th 
WRONG.  17th.  I'm laughing at the "potentially stacked and well-rounded" part.  I could not have been more wrong about their tribe.  I also overestimated her ability to handle the game.

Kenzie Petty, 29, Salon Owner from Charlotte, NC YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Carolyn Wiger, Victoria Baamonde
Yes, I'm using those comparables because of the tattoos (Carolyn) and the red hair (Victoria).  Anyway, the more I think about Kenzie's chances, the more I like them.  I get similar game vibes from her as I do Dee last season, someone who can win or if they sit on their hands can still be a losing finalist.  I am strongly considering her as my winner pick.  One thing I've noticed about basically all of the new era winners is that they have a great smile.  Erika?  Check.  Maryanne?  SUPER CHECK.  Gabler?  Eh... better than Owen or Cassidy.  Yam-Yam?  CHECK.  Dee?  SUPER CHECK.  Kenzie?  CHECK!
Predicted finish: 6th-1st

Liz Wilcox, 35, Marketing Strategist from Orlando, FL NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: Aubrey Bracco, Emily Flippen
Liz is one of those zany ladies who is extremely high-variance.  I could see her as a pre-merge boot, a late merge boot (like Emily), or a losing finalist (like Aubrey).  I can't really see her winning, but that's not completely outside the realm of possibility.  I'll pick her to go around the time of the merge, maybe getting lucky enough to get somewhat far in the game.  I have a feeling she'll be outside my range, but the problem is, I don't know which side she'd be on.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th

Maria Shrime Gonzalez, 48, Parent Coach from Dallas, TX SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: Heidi Legares-Greenblatt, Marya Sherron
Maria is another high-variance player.  Again, I could see her as high as a losing finalist or as low as an early boot.  I was torn on her or Moriah on who would be the first female targeted, and I actually think it'll be Moriah, not Maria.  I think Maria will form connections like Julie did in 45; I'm guessing with Tim and/or Jem, at least.  I therefore will pick her to go further than I originally thought, but still not to the end.
Predicted finish: 9th-4th

Moriah Gaynor, 28, Program Coordinator from San Diego, CA SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: Sarah Wade, Aubrey Bracco
I couldn't help but use Aubrey a 2nd time, even Moriah referenced her in her intro video.  I see some potential with Moriah, but I just do not have a good vibe about her as a Survivor player.  Think Justine from 43, or Sarah or Maddie from 44.  I think she will go down as another forgettable pre-merge boot.  But like most of them, there's potential there.  I look at her tribe and it's either her or Charlie/Ben going first, depending on how alliances shake out.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 13th.  Although, just barely.  Even a reference to Aubrey in the show, and clearly they didn't want another one of those.

Q Burdette, 29, Real Estate Agent from Memphis, TN YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Danny McRay, Brandon Cottom
Q is someone that should survive the pre-merge, given he's easily the strongest member on his tribe.  But I could easily see him play himself out of the game shortly after the merge.  I'm not envisioning a winning game from him, as for some reason, former athletes don't win or even come that close.  I think he'll be on the jury due to being a physical threat.  He says he'll have the best final tribal council performance we've ever seen if he makes the final 3--problem is, he won't make it there.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th

Randen Montalvo, 41, Aerospace Tech from Orlando, FL NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: Gio Bustamante, Jesse Lopez
Randen may be the most high-variance player ever.  He's a guaranteed early boot or finalist.  Either way, he ain't winning.  His best hope is working behind the scenes and pulling strings, like an Omar or Jesse, but I think he'll be more a Gio and think he has more connections than he actually does.  If I had to place a bet on anyone on this cast being a pre-merge boot, it's Randen.  Even his own family doesn't think he'll do well.  His tribe should do fairly well in the pre-merge, but if they go to any tribals, Randen is in trouble.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 16th.  Although it was due to him being medically pulled from the game.  However, I've had people finish outside my predicted range because they were pulled too early, so it's only fair.

Soda Thompson, 27, Special Ed Teacher from Lake Hopatcong, NJ NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: Morriah Young, Katurah Topps
Soda seems too pleasant for the game of Survivor.  She's deathly afraid of butterflies?  Well, Cirie was afraid of leaves... but this is a new era.  If she can survive the first few votes, she might be able to make waves in this game.  However, I simply cannot envision a winning scenario for her.  Her best case scenario would be making the finale like Katurah.  Worst case is sharing the same fate as Morriah from 43.  I'm leaning more towards the latter.  She doesn't scream "Survivor" to me.
Predicted finish: 16th-11th
CORRECT, 11th.  Although barely.  She was more game savvy than I thought she would be, but her social game was similar to what I was imagining.

Tevin Davis, 24, Actor from Richmond, VA NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: JD Robinson, Brice Johnston
First off, Tevin basically got the only on-screen content in the season preview.  That has to mean he is one of the more memorable characters.  Although, to be fair, Brandon last season was featured heavily (along with Jake).  Yam-Yam was featured heavily too, though... but I don't think that means Tevin will win.  I did strongly think about making him my winner pick for the longest time.  But I think he's just slightly too young.  I don't think we'll see a male under 27-ish win in the new era, at least not for a while.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 10th.  Wow, I think most people were wrong about Tevin.  He got opening narration and everything, yet... blindsided.

Tiffany Nicole Ervin, 33, Artist from Elizabeth, NJ YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Drea Wheeler, Shan Smith
I gave her the above comparables because I expect Nicole to be a power player.  But the problem is, those kind of powerful women don't even tend to make the final 3 or even the finale.  I'm gonna predict the same for Tiffany.  She's certainly going to be one of the more interesting characters of the season, I predict.  She'll be good for some soundbites/confessionals, and possibly some Sia money.  
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd

Tim Spicer, 31, College Coach from Atlanta, GA SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: Jeremy Collins, Rocksroy Bailey
I gotta say, Tim gives me good vibes.  I love his attitude; he's my kind of funny (dry sense of humor).  I hope he does well, and I think he will.  I love that he put Shamar from 26 as his comparable--guarantee that's never been done before.  I can see him being someone people go to and trust, which is a very good thing, unless they realize he's too good at being that.  I have to consider him as a winner.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
WRONG, 12th.   I misread Tim.  I definitely thought he'd be a more likable Deshawn type.  I should've realized he was a possible mid-game boot when I used Rocksroy as a comparable.  

Venus Vafa, 24, Data Analyst from Toronto, ON NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: Justine Brennan, Dee Valladares
Our last player is Venus, who is yet another high-variance player, as noted by her above comparables.  She comes off as strong but also a bit bossy, which I think could spell her early doom.  But here's the thing, no Canadian in the new era has not at least made the jury (Kaleb and Kane), and two have won (Erika and Maryanne).  I will give her the slight benefit of the doubt, but barely.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

So with that, I will make a boot order that would fit all of those placements:

18th: Moriah
17th: Randen
16th: Soda
15th: Bhanu HE WAS 15th!
14th: Ben
13th: Charlie
12th: Jelinsky
11th: Venus
10th: Liz
9th: Jess
8th: Q
7th: Hunter
6th: Maria
5th: Tiffany
4th: Jem
3rd: Tevin
2nd: Tim
1st: Kenzie

There you have it, my winner pick for Survivor 46 is Kenzie!  Let's hope my winner pick does better this season than last (Sabiyah... yikes).  My winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, 5th, and 16th.  Still, that's an average placement of 7th.  Not bad.  My next winner pick was Tim, who I think people will really like, but not too much.  

Actual winners I have placed 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), 18th (Gabler), and 3rd (Yam-Yam), and 9th (Dee).  So a bit all over the place, but mostly good.  

I will update this after each week under each player that gets voted out, saying if I was right or wrong in their placement range.  Any updates will be in BOLD.  Hoping to keep improving; let's shoot for 10/18!