Survivor 49 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 49 is less than a month away, and with the official cast release, it's time for my cast review and predictions.  Like I've done in the New Era so far, I will give each player two comparables of who they remind me of, and then give them a placement I think they'll fall into with a range of 6 spots, such as 12th to 7th, 18th to 13th, etc.  The last two seasons I have gotten 6/18 correct, so I am really hoping to not make it 3 in a row and hopefully improve back to where I used to be, which was around 8 or 9 correct.   So I have to return to form this season.  I'll organize them alphabetically by first name so I can find them easier later on.  I'll be updating these as they get voted out to see if I'm right or wrong; those updates will be in BOLD.  I'll be going off of Entertainment Weekly's article about the cast done by Dalton Ross.  Also, I will color code these by tribe.  Red is for Uli, Blue is for Kele, and Yellow is for Hina.  And I'll put together a boot order given my placements for them at the end of all this.  

Lastly, I wanted to note that I do know the two players from this season who will be returning for Survivor 50, so that does give me a bit of an advantage that I don't normally get.  Since I'm only competing against myself, I will take it.  I won't mention who those players are here or in my comments on them, but do note that they are very likely one of the players that I predict to go far in this game.  Without further ado, the cast:

Alex Moore, 27, Political Comms Director from Washington D.C.
Comparables: Dwight Moore, Jon Lovett
For Alex's comparables, I chose two New Era players whose careers also have to do with politics.  Surprisingly, players in the political field tend to not do so well on Survivor.  And I'm sorry to say that I think the same will be true for Alex.  At best, I think he overplays his hand mid-merge as a possible blindside.  At worst, he's an early boot.  I'll try to give him the tiniest benefit of the doubt.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

Kimberly "Annie" Davis, 49, Musician from Austin, TX
Comparables: Sue Smey, Carolyn Wiger
Annie is a force, having commanded a company and now is a musician, reminding me a lot of Sue Smey in owning her own flight company.  Annie is the oldest woman on the cast, so as always with someone like that, they are very high variance.  Meaning, they could be one of the first boots or they could be a losing finalist, like Sue.  But what usually decides it is tribe strength.  It's heavily reliant on their starting tribe, and I think Annie will be saved by being on a good tribe, skirting on by, possibly all the way to FTC.  But I think it's a safe bet to say she is not winning this season.  
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd

Jake Latimer, 36, Correctional Officer from St. Albert, Alberta, Canada
Comparables: Danny Massa, Jonathan Young
Oh boy, Jake and I are the same age, but man, he has accomplished so much in his life compared to me.  He's like Forrest Gump.  I fully expect Jake to make the merge, barring him doing something dumb.  But I can't see that happening; he has been watching since he was a kid and should know the game well enough to avoid that.  However, I expect his threat level to be a huge issue for him, as I believe others will see and recognize that he could very well win if he gets to the end.  Possible final boss, possible early to mid-merge boot.
Predicted finish: 9th-4th

Jason Treul, 32, Law Clerk from Santa Ana, CA
Comparables: Kenny Hoang, Matt Blankinship
I had to take Kenny from Jason's "Who he will most play like", since they also look alike.  They're also both computer/video game nerds who don't get out much.  He also looks like Matt from 44, so I had to add him.  I think Jason is on the disaster tribe, which is usually the Yellow tribe when they do the three primary colors, so even if he's in the power alliance, he's not getting terribly far.  I think he could be screwed by a split tribal when he's perhaps the only Hina tribe member.  
Predicted finish: 14th-9th

Jawan Pitts, 28, Video Editor from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: James Jones, Tim Spicer
Jawan definitely seems like the kind of guy who either gets overconfident/overplays like James or he gets forgotten about/purpled like Tim.  I cannot see him getting terribly far, unless he scoots on by like DeShawn did in 41.  I think he'll be fine getting to the merge, but once he gets there, all bets are off.  
Predicted finish: 12th-7th

Jeremiah Ing, 39, Global Events Manager from Toronto, ON, Canada
Comparables: Tai Trang, Yam-Yam Arrocho
Jeremiah was featured in the 49 promo, so possibly good things for him.  Although, so was Brandon in 45, so that doesn't mean everything.  But I do believe he'll link up with a girl or two on his tribe and get by to the merge, possibly even getting far.  But there's just something that tells me he's not making the FTC or maybe not even the finale.  Seems too big for him, perhaps.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th

Kristina Mills, 36, MBA Career Coach from Edmond, OK
Comparables: Taj George, Cirie Fields
Kristina is on my predicted disaster tribe, so the first vote will be crucial.  I bet she links up with MC and possibly brings in another, so her going early is no guarantee.  I could see yellow voting out their physical strength early despite them needing them early, and forcing production to induce a tribe swap, because they always swap when there's a disaster tribe (After 41, that is).  So I could see Kristina being saved by a swap and getting far-ish, but how far?  Hard to say.  I'll say not terribly far.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

Matt Williams, 52, Airport Ramp Agent from St. George, UT
Comparables: Mike Gabler, Brad Reese
Matt's the cooky older white guy, like his comparables.  But like Broccoli Brad and unlike Gabler, I expect Matt to go early.  He's on a bad tribe, and I can't see him surviving multiple early votes.  They'll likely go 3 votes before the swap, and I can't see him making it.  He might even be the first boot.  Sorry, Matt.  I just don't see him being in an alliance with more than one person, who he will likely bring down with him.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th

Michelle "MC" Chukwujekwu, 29, Fitness Trainer from San Diego, CA
Comparables: Tiffany Ervin, Drea Wheeler
MC is the athletic chick who will almost for sure make the merge, unless something crazy happens like she gets swap-screwed or plays extremely paranoid.  How far she gets is another story.  I could see her linking up with Kristina and possibly outlasting her... they each are threats, but in different ways.  I'll give MC the slight edge.  
Predicted finish: 12th-7th

Nate Moore, 47, Film Producer from Hermosa Beach, CA
Comparables: Cedrek McFadden. Nick Brown
Now I highly doubt Nate is going to be as wacky and unpredictable in the game as Cedrek.  I expect him to come across calm and laid back like Nick, but I do expect him to be more active than some of the older guys from the past.  I bet Nate will be hiding his occupation, unless he has zero desire to win.  I can't imagine him lasting too too long.  He probably has a multi-million dollar home to go back to.  If Uli goes to a pre-merge tribal, I could easily see Nate being a target and the one who goes.  
Predicted finish: 16th-11th

Nicole Mazullo, 26, Financial Crime Consultant from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Teeny Chirchillo, Lyida Meredith
There aren't many I would put money on being an early boot, but Nicole might be one of them.  She doesn't seem to be in the greatest shape, could cost her tribe a challenge, and seems like someone who could rub others the wrong way.  Best-case scenario is a Teeny-type run where she gets to the finale.  But I don't think Nicole will even do that.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th

Rizo Velovic, 25, Tech Sales from Yonkers, NY
Comparables: Xander Hastings, Carson Garrett
A young, confident guy?  Haven't seen that before.  Rizo calls himself the "Rizgod", and oh my word I hope he doesn't use that too much with his tribemates.  Heck, I hope he doesn't use that too much toward us in his confessionals.  Please, no third person.  But he seems like a good kid at heart, and I bet he will surprise some people.  I can't explain why, but he seems like someone who will make the move of the season.  Whether it works or blows up in his face, I don't know.  But he seems like he'd have the balls to do it.  Possibly just for the meme.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd

Sage Ahren-Nichols, 30, Clinical Social Worker from Olympia, WA
Comparables: Kendra McQuarrie, Jennifer Lanzetti
Who collects pimples, honestly?  Sage is certainly a kooky one, and she definitely seems more character than player.  The worst-case scenario would be that she is mostly invisible, and the few times we actually see her speak, she says something crazy.  Honestly... I could see that happening.  I chose Jennifer from Kaoh Rong as a comparable because Sage seems like someone who would stand on her seat at tribal as well.  
Predicted finish: 15th-10th

Savannah Louie, 31, Former Reporter from Atlanta, GA
Comparables: Michele Fitzgerald, Kim Spradlin
Savannah is the complete package.  I see winner written on her forehead.  Not literally, obviously.  That's why I chose two winners as comparables for her.  She's got experience, the right amount of cunning and villainy, and, she's on a good tribe.  I could see her linking with Sage and stabbing her in the back.  I could see her "putting up" with Rizo, and using Nate and Jawan.  She's got it all.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st

Shannon Fairweather, 28, Wellness Specialist from Boston, MA
Comparables: Stephanie Berger, Sarah Wade
I compared Shannon to Stephanie and Sarah, two blondes who got booted before the merge.  She comes off as too spiritual and not a great listener.  She's on what I think will be a good tribe in challenges, but if they lose just 1 challenge, Shannon would be my pick from their tribe to go.  Nate and Jawan are likely together.  Rizo and Savannah seem like they'd be safe.  And they'll need Sage for challenges.  
Predicted finish: 17th-12th

Sophi Ballerdi, 27, Entrepreneur from Miami, FL
Comparables: Dee Valladares, Abi-Maria Gomes
We got another Latina fireball here, everyone.  Sophi is certainly going to try to wiggle her way into some guy'(s) heart(s).  I could easily see her wooing Alex, who mentioned in his intro video he might be looking for love.  And they're the same age.  I could see him crushing on her while she plays along for the game, like Dee and Austin in 45.  Calling it now.  However, their duo will not do as well.  I think Sophi will do better than Alex, but not too much better.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th

Sophie Segreti, 31, Strategy Associate from New York, NY
Comparables: Rachel LaMont, Erika Casupanan
Sophie seems like the perfect Survivor player.  Social, but not too social.  Shows good game acumen but does not come off as intimidating.  That's why I chose two winners for her comparables, who fit that description as well.  Does Sophie, win, however?  You'll have to wait and see.  I would not be the least bit surprised by a Sophie win, I will at least say.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st

Steven Ramm, 35, Rocket Scientist from Denver, CO
Comparables: Danny Massa, David Voce
I hate to say it, but Steven, being on my disaster tribe pick, also doesn't have a ton of lasting power in this season.  I think possibly Matt goes, and then Steven is on the outs.  I could see the two of them aligning, but being in the minority.  Perhaps they won't be as bad of a tribe as I think.  But I think it's more common than not that, in the New Era, one tribe loses a lot more than the other 2.  That was the case in 41, 44, 45, 46, and 48.  That's 5/8, and 4 of the last 5 seasons.  It's a trend that seems likely to continue.  
Predicted finish: 17th-12th

All right, now a boot order, based on where I predicted them to finish:

18th: Matt
17th: Steven
16th: Nicole
15th: Shannon
14th: Nate
13th: Sage
12th: Jason
11th: Kristina
10th: Alex
9th: MC
8th: Jawan
7th: Sophi
6th: Jeremiah
5th: Jake
4th: Annie
3rd: Rizo
2nd: Sophie
1st: Savannah


There you have it, my winner pick for Survivor 49 is Savannah!  She definitely seems like the complete package, and I could see her, Rizo, and Sophie running the game together come the merge.  I mentioned Sophie as having all the traits, but I think Savannah will have more of a killer instinct, which nets her the win over Sophie.  By the way, I have Rizo beating Annie in fire, but it's not enough to get him the win.  

So far, my winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 16th, 1st, and 16th. 17th

Here are my winner picks and how they've done so far:
41 - Evie, 9th
42 - Maryanne, 1st WINNER
43 - Jesse, 4th
44 - Lauren, 5th
45 - Sabiyah, 16th
46 - Kenzie, 1st WINNER
47 - Aysha, 16th
48 - Kevin, 17th

Yikes!  Three bad ones the last 4 times and one good one in correctly picking the winner.  My winner pick averages a placement of 8.6, so at least I have a jury average. 

Here's how where I had the actual winners placed at the start of each season:

41 - Erika: 3rd
42 - Maryanne: 1st
43 - Gabler: 18th (yikes)
44 - Yam-Yam: 3rd
45 - Dee: 9th
46 - Kenzie: 1st
47 - Rachel: 18th (Another yikes)
48 - Kyle: 2nd (So close)

With an average placement of 6.875, so this one's a bit better.  I have a slightly better read on how well the winner actually does than I do picking someone out who will go far and win.  

I will update this after each week under each player that gets voted out, saying if I was right or wrong in their placement range.  Any updates will be in BOLD.  Hoping to improve upon the paltry 6/18 I have gotten the last two seasons.  Let's hope for half right again!