My Thoughts on American Idol's Top 12 and My Predictions

Here we go, my thoughts on each American Idol contestant and how far they will go in the competition. They are ordered by last name, alphabetically first going first. As for predicted finish, the first number I give is the worst I think they could do. The last number is the best I think they could do. So if I give someone a 7-3 that means I think they’ll be anywhere from finishing 7^th to finishing 3^rd. So here they are:

- Didi Benami
Kind of a wild card we have here. She could either do really well or really poorly. I like her voice. She’s got a bit of a Megan Joy type voice and vibe. I don’t see her winning, but she could get far. She has a good attitude, unlike the next contestant.
Predicted finish: 10-5

- Crystal Bowersox
Clear frontrunner. She’s got the judges on her side, confidence, and a great voice. Her fan base could use more support. She will make it far. However, her major downside is her attitude. Not too many of the other contestants seem to like her. When she was announced to go into the Top 12, no one gave her a hug. She also never smiles. That could really hurt her. I can’t imagine her winning, but I can imagine her going far.
Predicted finish: 6-2

- Lacey Brown
One of the surprises in the Top 12. I had her out at the Top 24 elimination week. She doesn’t have a good enough voice to win. She’s got a huge fan base though apparently so that will help her. But a fan base really can only help you so far. Unless you’re Taylor Hicks.
Predicted finish: 11-8

- Lee Dewyze
Simon says he has the best male voice but I wouldn’t say that. He’s definitely got the most unique male voice though, at least now that Alex is gone. He’s a rocker and will draw comparisons to Chris Daughtry and David Cook, which might hurt him. But he will definitely be one of the last guys left in the show, if not win it all. He definitely can, but it’s going to take some work and luck. A big plus for him is that he has an ever growing fan base.
Predicted finish: 5-1

- Andrew Garcia
He has struggled a bit, but America will not regret letting him through. He knows how to make songs his own and that will greatly help him. He just needs to really show off his vocal range more. If he does that, he’ll go VERY far. He is a lot like Danny Gokey, and not just in appearance. Like Gokey, he’s good enough to get far, but not great enough to win. But he won’t be voted out early.
Predicted finish: 7-3

- Casey James
He actually has one of the weaker male voices. He doesn’t stand out, and I don’t ever see him wowing us with a performance. So that will really hinder him. He’s a good entertainer, but I don’t see him winning or even coming close to winning. But his looks and charm will prevent him from leaving early.
Predicted finish: 9-5

- Aaron Kelly
This year’s token youngster. We’ve had Covais, Sanjaya, Archuleta, and now Aaron Kelly. None of those previous contestants won, and Aaron won’t either. I say he’s most like Kevin Covais, but perhaps a little better. But he’s not as good as Archuleta. His cuteness can only get him so far, just like with Kevin Covais.
Predicted finish: 11-6

- Michael Lynche
He finished on a VERY strong note, but he’s not anyone’s vision of an American Idol, although Reuben Studdard did win. But Reuben has a better voice than Mike. Mike’s fan base is average. As we know, a lot of the voters are pre-teen and teenage girls, so I can’t seem them throwing many votes Mike’s way, unfortunately. But his big voice and big personality will get him to at least the middle of the Top 12.
Predicted finish: 8-4

- Siobhan Magnus
My early favorite. She has the voice, the personality, and the confidence. She isn’t a dark horse anymore. She is a favorite. Unless she stumbles and blows it in consecutive weeks, expect to see her for a LONG time. I think she’ll be much like Katharine McPhee this year. She’ll just sail on through to the end.
Predicted finish: 4-1

- Paige Miles
Vote for the worst picked her, and will probably dump her in favor of Tim Urban. She doesn’t pick great songs, but since she is the only African-American girl in the Top 12, that might get her some votes. But I can’t see her lasting long at all.
Predicted finish: 12-9

- Katie Stevens
I do like this girl. She’s got a great voice. She just doesn’t know what to do with it yet. If she manages to pick the right songs and use her big voice, she could go far. But she has been on the decline and that has to be taken into account. I think she is the most variable contestant left. What I mean by that is she could either go the first night (not too likely, but possible) or make it to the finals. It all depends on if she can fix her problems.
Predicted finish: 11-4

- Tim Urban
At first, I thought this guy was dead meat. But surprisingly he has picked it up and has managed to make it to the Top 12. Perhaps with a little help from VFTW. He doesn’t have a good enough voice to win and VFTW will try to carry him as far as they can. Perhaps they can “Pull a Sanjaya”. We’ll see. But there’s no way he makes it far.
Predicted finish: 12-7

So now that that’s done, I’ll be taking my predicted finishes for each contestant and averaging them. The contestant with the lowest average I will predict does better than a contestant with a higher average. So here they are, with their averages in parenthesis (and if they tied I broke the tie by predicting who probably makes it further):

12. Paige Miles (10.5)
11. Lacey Brown (9.5)
10. Tim Urban (9.5)
9. Aaron Kelly (8.5)
8. Didi Benami (7.5)
7. Katie Stevens (7.5)
6. Casey James (7)
5. Michael Lynche (6)
4. Andrew Garcia (5)
3. Crystal Bowersox (4)
2. Lee Dewyze (3)
1. Siobhan Magnus (2.5)

So there you have it. My prediction is Siobhan over Lee for the title of American Idol 2010.