Here we go again, another season in the NFL.
Last year, I predicted a Packers-Ravens Super Bowl, and I wasn’t even
close. I also predicted the Giants to
miss the playoffs, and they won the Super Bowl.
Hopefully I will be closer this year.
First, team by team analysis and W/L record predictions, then playoff
predictions, then some awards.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers: I again expect this team to win their division, because they still have a solid quarterback and a solid defense. There won’t be any dominant team in the AFC West this year, but the Chargers are again my pick to win it, even though they were extremely inconsistent last year.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 35%
Denver Broncos: We all know what the Broncos did this offseason: signing the best quarterback of his generation, Peyton Manning, but also trading Tim Tebow, their catalyst and leader last season. These moves will have both positive and negative effects, but more negative as I predict the Broncos to miss the playoffs.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 35%
Kansas City Chiefs: Romeo Crennel was the right pick to be their head coach, even though he did not do too well as coach of the Browns a few years ago. But this Chiefs team should be competitive as long as they stay healthy. In fact, they could very well win the division. But I just see last year as too much of a setback.
Predicted record: 7-9
Odds of winning division: 15%
Oakland Raiders: Really Raiders? ANOTHER new coach? How do you expect to stay relevant when you can’t hold onto a coach for more than two years? But I will say that last year, the Raiders showed flashes that proved that they could be the best team in the division. Palmer needs to stay healthy and that defense needs to improve.
Predicted record: 6-10
Odds of winning division: 15%
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers: It seems like the Steelers just reload instead of rebuild. They had a disappointing end to last season, losing in the playoffs to the Broncos, but they’ll more than likely be back this season. I don’t know if I see another Super Bowl appearance out of the Roethlisberger-led Steelers.
Predicted record: 10-6
Odds of winning division: 40%
Cincinnati Bengals: What a great season for Dalton, Green, and co. as they made the playoffs last season. Seeing how young this team is and how good their defense can be, I see this team remaining in contention, and someday being division champs.
Predicted record: 10-6
Odds of winning division: 25%
Baltimore Ravens: I see a setback this year for the Ravens. Losing Suggs to injury will really hurt them. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are nearing the ends of their careers. They’ve relied on their tough defense to win games the past decade, but I don’t think that defense will be as tough this year. But they could just as easily be their normal selves and make the playoffs, which is why I have their division winning shot higher than the Bengals.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 30%
Cleveland Browns: You have to wonder, especially if you’re a Browns fan, when the Browns will win the division, if ever. They drafted a 28 year old rookie to play quarterback. Their defense is actually pretty good, but they need leaders. Looks like Browns fans will have to wait another season for well… anything.
Predicted record: 5-11
Odds of winning division: 5%
AFC South
Houston Texans: In their 10th season in the league, the Texans finally made the playoffs and won a playoff game. Their team is built to contend, so long as Matt Schaub stays healthy. They have a good running game, and I think they will still have a good pass rush, despite losing Mario Williams to free agency.
Predicted record: 11-5
Odds of winning division: 50%
Tennessee Titans: As I’m writing this, the Titans have not picked a quarterback, but I think Locker will be their guy this year. The Titans are making strides and are just a few pieces away from giving the Texans a run for their money. Look for them to be in the wild card hunt perhaps until the last day of the season.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 35%
Jacksonville Jaguars: Not much to say about the Jaguars. They have a young QB who didn’t look that great in his rookie season last year, Blaine Gabbert, but look for him to improve this season. They still have MJD who will be the main producer for this offense. But you have to say that the Jaguars are a team in rebuilding mode, yet again.
Predicted record: 5-11
Odds of winning division: 10%
Indianapolis Colts: Well, here’s a team that is definitely in a rebuilding process, but a team that might get through it faster than the Jaguars. Number one overall pick Andrew Luck will face his struggles, and I’d be shocked if they won the division, but stranger things have happened.
Predicted record: 4-12
Odds of winning division: 5%
AFC East
New England Patriots: The Patriots are once again kings of the AFC East and perhaps again kings of the AFC. There were no huge losses or gains this offseason, so look for them to just keep winning. Tom Brady just needs to stay healthy.
Predicted record: 12-4
Odds of winning division: 65%
New York Jets: They had such a disappointing season last year, as this is a team with HUGE aspirations and HUGE goals. Despite finishing 8-8 last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if their goal remained to winning a Super Bowl. They have the talent. Mark Sanchez just needs to act like an elite quarterback.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 20%
Buffalo Bills: The Buffalo Bills are a team that could surprise people this season. They signed Mario Williams, they have Fitzpatrick under contract, and they drafted a great young corner in Stephen Gilmore. They might even contend for a wild card, depending on how the rest of the division does.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 10%
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins still don’t have a top-tier QB, and they haven’t since the days of Dan Marino, but they’re hoping someday Ryan Tannehill will be that guy. Being in such a tough division, it’s hard to see these guys succeed, especially since they’ll be quarterbacked by a journeyman (Matt Moore) or a rookie (Tannehill).
Predicted record: 6-10
Odds of winning division: 5%
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: What an unexpected season from them last year. They went from NFC West doormat to dominant division champs, and they almost made it to the Super Bowl. I don’t know if we’ll see the same dominance this year, but they will most certainly contend for the playoffs. I just can’t see them making the Super Bowl without a top quarterback.
Predicted record: 11-5
Odds of winning division: 55%
Seattle Seahawks: Ah, the Seahawks. Well, I already reviewed them here: http://briguy17-briguy17.blogspot.com/2012/08/predictions-for-seahawks-in-2012.html. I expect them to contend for the division crown with the 49ers, which will probably start an intense rivalry between the teams. It all comes down to the division games. Can they beat the 49ers? Can they sweep both the Cards and Rams? And of course, the QB situation.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 35%
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are another team with a QB situation, but as opposed to the Seahawks who have too much of a good thing, the Cardinals are looking like they are trying to pick the lesser of two evils. Their defense can be really good at times, but they just can’t compete with the quarterbacks they have.
Predicted record: 6-10
Odds of winning division: 5%
St. Louis Rams: The Rams suffered a setback last year after being expected to contend for the division title. They are still a work in progress, but Jeff Fisher, who is a great coach, will get these guys working hard and going in the right direction. I expect them to fight hard all year long.
Predicted record: 6-10
Odds of winning division: 5%
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: The Packers had such a letdown of a postseason game after an incredible start to the regular season, almost going undefeated. I expect the same dominance from them in the regular season and for them to bounce back from last year’s loss to the Giants. This is a team built to win for year, and they will.
Predicted record: 13-3
Odds of winning division: 65%
Detroit Lions: The Lions showed they are no longer the NFC North doormat anymore by making the playoffs last season, only to lose to the Saints in their first playoff game in over a decade. I don’t know what we’ll see from these guys this year, but I know there is a lot of talent in their division. They’ll be neck and neck with the Bears all season long, I think.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 20%
Chicago Bears: The Bears suffered injuries to both Cutler and Forte last year, which is why they struggled. But if they both stay healthy, I think they can really have a good shot at the playoffs. They still have a pretty good defense. But I just can’t see it all coming together like that.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 15%
Minnesota Vikings: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Once the kings of this division, they are now the cellar dwellers and will use the 2012 season as a rebuilding one, seeing how 2nd year quarterback Christian Ponder does. They are the only team I give a 0% chance of winning the division to because the other teams are just so talented in their division.
Predicted record: 4-12
Odds of winning division: 0%
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: Oh boy did they get penalized by the NFL for their bounties on players. But guess what? I still expect this team to win the division! They are that kind of team. Picking up ex-Seahawk David Hawthorne will help for sure. But I expect the NFC South to be the closest and toughest fought battle for the division title in 2012.
Predicted record: 10-6
Odds of winning division: 30%
Carolina Panthers: People are saying this team is still another year away. I say this team might just contend this year! Cam Newton is so talented it’s ridiculous. They have a great running game, and their defense is improving. They’re my surprise pick this season (similar to the Lions in 2011).
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 25%
Atlanta Falcons: Well, how long has Matt Ryan been here? And how many times has he won a playoff game? Exactly. The Falcons really are losing ground in the NFC South and might suffer a setback this season. It will be extremely competitive in this division and they could lose a lot of games they should win.
Predicted record: 7-9
Odds of winning division: 25%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Well, last year was quite a setback, but with a new coach, some excellent signings in free agency (Nicks, Jackson), and a new outlook, they should be improved. They could very well win the division, but we’ll see how year one goes under Greg Schiano.
Predicted record: 7-9
Odds of winning division: 20%
NFC East
New York Giants: Like I said last year, and like I’ve said many years before, when I pick the Giants to do well, they lose, and vice versa. So this year, I’m picking them to repeat as division champs. Like I said, you can’t predict this team.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 35%
Dallas Cowboys: Oh, the Cowboys. How you have such high goals and such mediocre results. It’s comical. I don’t expect a breakout season from them this year. Tony Romo is a good quarterback, but have they surrounded him with enough talent and depth?
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 35%
Philadelphia Eagles: A lot of people are expecting the Eagles to break out from a disappointing season last year, but I don’t. I think they’re an average team. Michael Vick is an average quarterback. Vick has only once started all 16 games in a season. Keep dreaming, Eagles.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 25%
Washington Redskins: Drafting RGIII will either kill this team or return them to prominence, depending on if he’s a bust or not. But for this first season I don’t expect much as he gets used to the NFL game. I wouldn’t be too shocked if they won the division, but realistically, there’s just too much talent in their division.
Predicted record: 4-12
Odds of winning division: 5%
Playoffs:
AFC
1. New England Patriots (12-4)
2. Houston Texans (11-5)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
4. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
6. New York Jets (9-7)
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
2. San Francisco 49ers (11-5)
3. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
4. New York Giants (9-7)
5. Detroit Lions (9-7)
6. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
Wildcards
AFC
(6) Jets at (3) Steelers: Steelers
(5) Bengals at (4) Chargers: Bengals
NFC
(6) Seahawks at (3) Saints: Saints
(5) Lions at (4) Giants: Giants
Divisional
AFC
(5) Bengals at (1) Patriots: Patriots
(3) Steelers at (2) Texans: Texans
NFC
(4) Giants at (1) Packers: Packers
(3) Saints at (2) 49ers: Saints
Conference Championships
(2) Texans at (1) Patriots: Patriots
(3) Saints at (1) Packers: Packers
Well, there you have it. This year, I predict the Seahawks to make the playoffs, but I think they’ll be a first round exit. Also, Super Bowl XLVII between the Patriots and Packers would not be the first time those two teams met in the Super Bowl in New Orleans. In fact, in Super Bowl XXXI, the Patriots and Packers met in New Orleans, with the Packers winning their 2nd Super Bowl in 3 years. I expect the same result this time around. Finally, some predictions on NFL awards:
NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Offensive Player of the Year: Cam Newton, Panthers
Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis, 49ers
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck, Colts
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Luke Kuechly, Panthers
Coach of the Year: Ron Rivera, Panthers
AFC West
San Diego Chargers: I again expect this team to win their division, because they still have a solid quarterback and a solid defense. There won’t be any dominant team in the AFC West this year, but the Chargers are again my pick to win it, even though they were extremely inconsistent last year.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 35%
Denver Broncos: We all know what the Broncos did this offseason: signing the best quarterback of his generation, Peyton Manning, but also trading Tim Tebow, their catalyst and leader last season. These moves will have both positive and negative effects, but more negative as I predict the Broncos to miss the playoffs.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 35%
Kansas City Chiefs: Romeo Crennel was the right pick to be their head coach, even though he did not do too well as coach of the Browns a few years ago. But this Chiefs team should be competitive as long as they stay healthy. In fact, they could very well win the division. But I just see last year as too much of a setback.
Predicted record: 7-9
Odds of winning division: 15%
Oakland Raiders: Really Raiders? ANOTHER new coach? How do you expect to stay relevant when you can’t hold onto a coach for more than two years? But I will say that last year, the Raiders showed flashes that proved that they could be the best team in the division. Palmer needs to stay healthy and that defense needs to improve.
Predicted record: 6-10
Odds of winning division: 15%
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers: It seems like the Steelers just reload instead of rebuild. They had a disappointing end to last season, losing in the playoffs to the Broncos, but they’ll more than likely be back this season. I don’t know if I see another Super Bowl appearance out of the Roethlisberger-led Steelers.
Predicted record: 10-6
Odds of winning division: 40%
Cincinnati Bengals: What a great season for Dalton, Green, and co. as they made the playoffs last season. Seeing how young this team is and how good their defense can be, I see this team remaining in contention, and someday being division champs.
Predicted record: 10-6
Odds of winning division: 25%
Baltimore Ravens: I see a setback this year for the Ravens. Losing Suggs to injury will really hurt them. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are nearing the ends of their careers. They’ve relied on their tough defense to win games the past decade, but I don’t think that defense will be as tough this year. But they could just as easily be their normal selves and make the playoffs, which is why I have their division winning shot higher than the Bengals.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 30%
Cleveland Browns: You have to wonder, especially if you’re a Browns fan, when the Browns will win the division, if ever. They drafted a 28 year old rookie to play quarterback. Their defense is actually pretty good, but they need leaders. Looks like Browns fans will have to wait another season for well… anything.
Predicted record: 5-11
Odds of winning division: 5%
AFC South
Houston Texans: In their 10th season in the league, the Texans finally made the playoffs and won a playoff game. Their team is built to contend, so long as Matt Schaub stays healthy. They have a good running game, and I think they will still have a good pass rush, despite losing Mario Williams to free agency.
Predicted record: 11-5
Odds of winning division: 50%
Tennessee Titans: As I’m writing this, the Titans have not picked a quarterback, but I think Locker will be their guy this year. The Titans are making strides and are just a few pieces away from giving the Texans a run for their money. Look for them to be in the wild card hunt perhaps until the last day of the season.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 35%
Jacksonville Jaguars: Not much to say about the Jaguars. They have a young QB who didn’t look that great in his rookie season last year, Blaine Gabbert, but look for him to improve this season. They still have MJD who will be the main producer for this offense. But you have to say that the Jaguars are a team in rebuilding mode, yet again.
Predicted record: 5-11
Odds of winning division: 10%
Indianapolis Colts: Well, here’s a team that is definitely in a rebuilding process, but a team that might get through it faster than the Jaguars. Number one overall pick Andrew Luck will face his struggles, and I’d be shocked if they won the division, but stranger things have happened.
Predicted record: 4-12
Odds of winning division: 5%
AFC East
New England Patriots: The Patriots are once again kings of the AFC East and perhaps again kings of the AFC. There were no huge losses or gains this offseason, so look for them to just keep winning. Tom Brady just needs to stay healthy.
Predicted record: 12-4
Odds of winning division: 65%
New York Jets: They had such a disappointing season last year, as this is a team with HUGE aspirations and HUGE goals. Despite finishing 8-8 last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if their goal remained to winning a Super Bowl. They have the talent. Mark Sanchez just needs to act like an elite quarterback.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 20%
Buffalo Bills: The Buffalo Bills are a team that could surprise people this season. They signed Mario Williams, they have Fitzpatrick under contract, and they drafted a great young corner in Stephen Gilmore. They might even contend for a wild card, depending on how the rest of the division does.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 10%
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins still don’t have a top-tier QB, and they haven’t since the days of Dan Marino, but they’re hoping someday Ryan Tannehill will be that guy. Being in such a tough division, it’s hard to see these guys succeed, especially since they’ll be quarterbacked by a journeyman (Matt Moore) or a rookie (Tannehill).
Predicted record: 6-10
Odds of winning division: 5%
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: What an unexpected season from them last year. They went from NFC West doormat to dominant division champs, and they almost made it to the Super Bowl. I don’t know if we’ll see the same dominance this year, but they will most certainly contend for the playoffs. I just can’t see them making the Super Bowl without a top quarterback.
Predicted record: 11-5
Odds of winning division: 55%
Seattle Seahawks: Ah, the Seahawks. Well, I already reviewed them here: http://briguy17-briguy17.blogspot.com/2012/08/predictions-for-seahawks-in-2012.html. I expect them to contend for the division crown with the 49ers, which will probably start an intense rivalry between the teams. It all comes down to the division games. Can they beat the 49ers? Can they sweep both the Cards and Rams? And of course, the QB situation.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 35%
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are another team with a QB situation, but as opposed to the Seahawks who have too much of a good thing, the Cardinals are looking like they are trying to pick the lesser of two evils. Their defense can be really good at times, but they just can’t compete with the quarterbacks they have.
Predicted record: 6-10
Odds of winning division: 5%
St. Louis Rams: The Rams suffered a setback last year after being expected to contend for the division title. They are still a work in progress, but Jeff Fisher, who is a great coach, will get these guys working hard and going in the right direction. I expect them to fight hard all year long.
Predicted record: 6-10
Odds of winning division: 5%
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: The Packers had such a letdown of a postseason game after an incredible start to the regular season, almost going undefeated. I expect the same dominance from them in the regular season and for them to bounce back from last year’s loss to the Giants. This is a team built to win for year, and they will.
Predicted record: 13-3
Odds of winning division: 65%
Detroit Lions: The Lions showed they are no longer the NFC North doormat anymore by making the playoffs last season, only to lose to the Saints in their first playoff game in over a decade. I don’t know what we’ll see from these guys this year, but I know there is a lot of talent in their division. They’ll be neck and neck with the Bears all season long, I think.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 20%
Chicago Bears: The Bears suffered injuries to both Cutler and Forte last year, which is why they struggled. But if they both stay healthy, I think they can really have a good shot at the playoffs. They still have a pretty good defense. But I just can’t see it all coming together like that.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 15%
Minnesota Vikings: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Once the kings of this division, they are now the cellar dwellers and will use the 2012 season as a rebuilding one, seeing how 2nd year quarterback Christian Ponder does. They are the only team I give a 0% chance of winning the division to because the other teams are just so talented in their division.
Predicted record: 4-12
Odds of winning division: 0%
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: Oh boy did they get penalized by the NFL for their bounties on players. But guess what? I still expect this team to win the division! They are that kind of team. Picking up ex-Seahawk David Hawthorne will help for sure. But I expect the NFC South to be the closest and toughest fought battle for the division title in 2012.
Predicted record: 10-6
Odds of winning division: 30%
Carolina Panthers: People are saying this team is still another year away. I say this team might just contend this year! Cam Newton is so talented it’s ridiculous. They have a great running game, and their defense is improving. They’re my surprise pick this season (similar to the Lions in 2011).
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 25%
Atlanta Falcons: Well, how long has Matt Ryan been here? And how many times has he won a playoff game? Exactly. The Falcons really are losing ground in the NFC South and might suffer a setback this season. It will be extremely competitive in this division and they could lose a lot of games they should win.
Predicted record: 7-9
Odds of winning division: 25%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Well, last year was quite a setback, but with a new coach, some excellent signings in free agency (Nicks, Jackson), and a new outlook, they should be improved. They could very well win the division, but we’ll see how year one goes under Greg Schiano.
Predicted record: 7-9
Odds of winning division: 20%
NFC East
New York Giants: Like I said last year, and like I’ve said many years before, when I pick the Giants to do well, they lose, and vice versa. So this year, I’m picking them to repeat as division champs. Like I said, you can’t predict this team.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 35%
Dallas Cowboys: Oh, the Cowboys. How you have such high goals and such mediocre results. It’s comical. I don’t expect a breakout season from them this year. Tony Romo is a good quarterback, but have they surrounded him with enough talent and depth?
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 35%
Philadelphia Eagles: A lot of people are expecting the Eagles to break out from a disappointing season last year, but I don’t. I think they’re an average team. Michael Vick is an average quarterback. Vick has only once started all 16 games in a season. Keep dreaming, Eagles.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 25%
Washington Redskins: Drafting RGIII will either kill this team or return them to prominence, depending on if he’s a bust or not. But for this first season I don’t expect much as he gets used to the NFL game. I wouldn’t be too shocked if they won the division, but realistically, there’s just too much talent in their division.
Predicted record: 4-12
Odds of winning division: 5%
Playoffs:
AFC
1. New England Patriots (12-4)
2. Houston Texans (11-5)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
4. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
6. New York Jets (9-7)
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
2. San Francisco 49ers (11-5)
3. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
4. New York Giants (9-7)
5. Detroit Lions (9-7)
6. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
Wildcards
AFC
(6) Jets at (3) Steelers: Steelers
(5) Bengals at (4) Chargers: Bengals
NFC
(6) Seahawks at (3) Saints: Saints
(5) Lions at (4) Giants: Giants
Divisional
AFC
(5) Bengals at (1) Patriots: Patriots
(3) Steelers at (2) Texans: Texans
NFC
(4) Giants at (1) Packers: Packers
(3) Saints at (2) 49ers: Saints
Conference Championships
(2) Texans at (1) Patriots: Patriots
(3) Saints at (1) Packers: Packers
Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans
Patriots 24, Packers 27Well, there you have it. This year, I predict the Seahawks to make the playoffs, but I think they’ll be a first round exit. Also, Super Bowl XLVII between the Patriots and Packers would not be the first time those two teams met in the Super Bowl in New Orleans. In fact, in Super Bowl XXXI, the Patriots and Packers met in New Orleans, with the Packers winning their 2nd Super Bowl in 3 years. I expect the same result this time around. Finally, some predictions on NFL awards:
NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Offensive Player of the Year: Cam Newton, Panthers
Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis, 49ers
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck, Colts
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Luke Kuechly, Panthers
Coach of the Year: Ron Rivera, Panthers
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