Survivor 47 is almost here and the cast has been released, and as always, I will be making my predictions for the season. I'll go through each cast member, give them a couple comparable players (who they either remind me of or may play like or have a similar result to), and talk about what I expect from them. I'll also give them a predicted range of 6 spots, such as 12th-7th, 16th-11th, etc., like I always do. Last season, I got 9/18 right, which was the same as I did the season before, so I hope to finally break the double-digit barrier and get 10 right for this season. I'll organize them alphabetically by first name so I can find them easier later on. I did watch each of their intro packages Survivor CBS posted, so I'll be going off that and their questionnaire. As of the time of me doing this, there is no solid info online as to what their tribes are, so I'll be going without that for this season. Wish me luck
Andy Rueda, 31, AI Research Assistant from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Austin Li Coon, Vince Sly
The Austin comparable is fairly obvious, but I unfortunately had to throw in Vince Sly as well. Remember creepy Vince? I don't think Andy will come off anywhere near that, but something about his appearance tells me people won't warm up to him as much as they will others. I think it's the long hair. Andy doesn't look very tall--my best guess is between 5 and a half feet and 5 foot 8. And us short guys, well... we shouldn't have long hair. It doesn't suit us. I would know. It's hard to pinpoint where I see him landing. I think he's certainly smart enough, but I think he'll be missing that social aspect required to do very well.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th
Anika Dhar, 26, Marketing Manager from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: J.Maya, Venus Vafa
I hate to say it, but women with a Persian or Middle Eastern background don't tend to do well on Survivor. Natalie Anderson is the lone exception. I don't see the passion that Natalie has in Anika. But I could be wrong. But my gut feeling is Anika will be an early casualty, joining the many young women that have been pre-merge boots so far in the New Era of Survivor.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
Aysha Welch, 32, IT Consultant from Houston, TX
Comparables: Lauren Harpe, Tiffany Ervin
Aysha may be the complete package. She's very familiar with social games (She's on RHAP!) and she is the perfect age to win it all. She's from the same city as Lauren, so I had to throw that comparison in. Almost every new era season, there's a black woman who could win it all. So far, only Maryanne has done it. But will Aysha follow Maryanne? Or will she go down the path of Shan, Drea, Lauren, Katurah, and Tiffany? I think we'll have our first black female president, and we may have our 2nd black female winner of the new era.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
Caroline Vidmar, 27, Strategy Consultant from Chicago, IL
Comparables: Christy Smith, Moriah "Mo" Gaynor
She vaguely resembles Christy from the Amazon, remember her? So I had to throw her in. And she may be adventurous but I think the game may be too much for her like it was for Mo last season. Well, it wasn't really, but Mo was not dominating the game in any way. Nevertheless, Caroline could be anywhere from an early boot to someone's ride-or-die. Hard to say. I'll wing this one.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
Gabe Ortis, 26, Radio Show Host from Baltimore, MD
Comparables: Kaleb Gebrewold, Randen Montalvo
Oh man is Gabe hard to pinpoint. He's said he wants to be on the Survivor Mount Rushmore for the New Era, but perhaps he's reaching too high too fast. I think people will be drawn to him, similarly to Kaleb, but they also may be put off slightly due to his standoffishness, like Randen. I can't see too many people wanting to trust him and work with him. I could be wrong. But I also could see him sliding by, even if he's not in a majority, due to his lack of threat level.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th
Genevieve Mushaluk, 33, Corporate Lawyer from Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Comparables: Kim Spradlin, Lindsay Dolashewich
I really do see a lot of Kim in Genevieve. The problem is, Kim played against a bunch of terrible Survivor players, while Genevieve certainly won't. She screams "Alpha Female" to me, so she could potentially win, or be taken out for being a threat, possibly right before the merge. Hard to say. I'll say threat. She did say she would not reveal her occupation, but either she won't be convincing or she'll pick an occupation that's still too intimidating, I think.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th
Jon Lovett, 42, Podcast Host from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: David Wright, Rick Devens
I could be wrong, but Jon screams "final boss" to me this season. Likable to the point where he might be prevented from reaching the Final 3. Or, he could be a Mike White type that may just happy to be there. He does seem like the type that will use Survivor as a learning experience rather than to actually win the game. However, I have also realized someone may recognize him and Jon could be targeted for being semi-famous. But I'll still give him the benefit of the doubt.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 18th. I really thought Jon would do well since he was in so many of the promos...
Kishan Patel, 28, ER Doctor from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Naseer Mustalif, Yam-Yam Arrocho
At first, I was thinking Kishan has that lovable energy Yam-Yam has. It's fairly infectious. But then the more I thought about it, the more I'm worried about his chances. He doesn't seem to have the outdoorsy-ness nor the killer instinct that Yam-Yam had. I wouldn't bet on Kishan making the jury, but it wouldn't surprise me if he made it there, either.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
Kyle Ostwald, 31, Construction Worker from Cheboygan, MI
Comparables: Ian Rosenberger, Cody Assenmacher
Oh man does Kyle remind me of Ian from Palau. They could be brothers. I could see a similar game from Kyle, provided his tribe does well. And I see a fun-loving spirit like Cody has. We have not had a young white male win in the New Era, the only white male winner being Gabler. Could it be Kyle?
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
Rachel LaMont, 34, Graphic Designer from Southfield, MI
Comparables: Jess Chong, Kellee Kim
I can't see Rachel doing too well. The introverted Asian, regardless of gender, never does very well, I'm afraid to say. See also James Lim. Anyway, I do think she'll be more game-savvy than Jess from 46, but I can't see her doing much better, placement-wise. She could be an early challenge liability. Even if she survives the pre-merge, she'll likely be targeted soon after the merge for being too intellectual. It's a curse on the introverted.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
Comparables: JD Robinson, Tevin Davis
Rome wants to take over for Jeff when he retires. Interesting. We'll see if that ever comes up. Maybe he'll sit out a challenge and Jeff will let him help commentate. That would be cool. Anyway, I like Rome. He seems likable enough to get by. I do worry he may annoy people out there and that might make people not want to work with him. He's a bit high variance, just like his comparables were. I just have this uneasy feeling about him--like he'll annoy the wrong person. I'd be surprised if he was the first one gone from his tribe, but being 2nd or 3rd gone would not surprise me.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
Sam Phalen, 24, Sports Reporter from Nashville, TN
Comparables: Sammi Lafedi, Cody Assenmacher
Bro, we got another one of those bro-types, dude. Like, bro. I could definitely see Sam as the type to use that type of language. Yes, he is a sports reporter, but many reporters speak very differently when not on camera. The thing is Sam won't ever not be on camera. I like his chances to survive the pre-merge, but like Sammi and Cody, I don't think he'll be able to navigate the tough post-merge and get to the Final Tribal Council.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
Sierra Wright, 27, Nurse from Phoenixville, PA
Comparables: Jefra Bland, Sierra Reed
I'll say this: Sierra (this season) looks like someone took Jefra from Cagayan and Sierra from Tocantins and merged them together. So that made the comparables easy. Anyway, I see this Sierra doing about as well as those two. About a mid-merge boot. We've had many young females be pre-merge boots, but I think tribes will target the older players first. Sorry Sue, Sol, and (possibly) Jon.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th
Solomon "Sol" Yi, 43, Medical Device Sales from Norwalk, CT
Comparables: Mike Gabler, Jonas Otsuji
Sol specializes in medical devices just like Gabler, hence that comparison. And he's funny (and Asian) like Jonas, so there's that one as well. I could see Sol getting by on his humor and personality, but I have this bad feeling a few of the older people will be targeted early. I wish I had better news. I'm certain I'll like Sol and be rooting for him, but I feel his fans will be disappointed.
Predicted finish: 16th-11th
Sue Smey, 59, Flight School Owner from Putnam Valley, NY
Comparables: Heather Aldret, Julie Alley
Another older blonde woman. It's a tale as old as time. But Sue is older than both of them. And I unfortunately feel she won't do as well as they did. Yes, she may be tough and able to physically handle the game, but socially I wouldn't bet on her doing very well. Something about her plastic surgery may turn some people off. They might think that makes her, well... fake. I hate to say it. But this grandma won't be making the finale.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
Teeny Chirichillo, 24, Freelance Writer from Manahawkin, NJ
Comparables: Evie Jagoda, Elaine Stott
First off, interesting name. Secondly, I'm using comparables Teeny used, so there's that (I only took Elaine from Teeny's questionnaire). I'm not sure Teeny's pronouns, so that's why I'm using Teeny's name for everything. Anyway, I think Teeny will do enough pre-merge to form bonds or a majority alliance, but I feel like Teeny will be on the outs come shortly after the merge, just like Evie was. Writers tend to be more introspective and reserved, so I think there will be someone that things Teeny is up to more than Teeny actually is.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
Terran "TK" Foster, 31, Athlete Marketing Manager from Upper Marlboro, MD
Comparables: Q Burdette, Danny McCray
I don't think TK will be as out there as Q, but him using "TK" as his name is an early indication he may be closer to Q than Danny. All three have a football background, so I know TK is going to play this competitively. And like Q and Danny, I think TK will be a mid-merge boot. If I had to put money on someone this season being a juror, I'd put money on TK.
Predicted Finish: 11th-6th
Tiyana Hallums, 27, Flight Attendant from Aiea, HI
Comparables: Dee Valladares, Noura Salman
Tiyana certainly is someone I considered as a winner pick. She reminds me so much of Dee--like the Hawaiian version of her. I can't see her having the strategic dominance of Dee. I did mention Noura, because I think she'll be a bit kooky and out there like her. So I could potentially see a losing finalist game from Tiyana. She works in the hospitality industry, so she knows how to appease all kinds of people. I like her chances to get far, at least.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
So with that, I will make a boot order that would fit all of those placements:
18th: Rachel
17th: Sue
16th: Anika
15th: Sol
14th: Kishan
13th: Rome
12th: Caroline
11th: Sierra
10th: Genevieve
9th: Teeny
8th: Sam
7th: TK
6th: Gabe
5th: Andy
4th: Jon
3rd: Tiyana
2nd: Kyle
1st: Aysha
There you have it, my winner pick for Survivor 47 is Aysha! I'm hoping my winner pick is right two times in a row. My winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 16th, and 1st. That's an average placement of 6th. Not bad. My next winner pick was Kyle, who I think people will really like and not find too threatening.
Actual winners I have placed 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), 18th (Gabler), 3rd (Yam-Yam), 9th (Dee), and 1st (Kenzie). So a bit all over the place, but mostly good. Four out of six times correctly predicting finalists is pretty good.
I will update this after each week under each player that gets voted out, saying if I was right or wrong in their placement range. Any updates will be in BOLD. Hoping to improve and finally hit double digits!
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