NFL Games are not rigged

     A bit over three years ago, I made a post talking about refereeing in the NFL and how it's about as bad as I've ever seen, excluding the lockout in 2012.  In that, I defended referees, saying their job is hard, and the turnover we've seen in the past few years and the increase in technology makes officiating seem worse than in prior seasons.  Well, I'm here to defend them again.  
    The 2022-2023 Conference Championship games happened yesterday as of this post.  For both games, I noticed numerous posts, comments, tweets, and online mentions that the NFL is rigged.  I've seen these kinds of comments many times before, but it seems they are growing in volume.  I am putting this out there: THE NFL IS NOT RIGGED.  Nor are any of the other major professional sports leagues, but the NFL seems to be the one that gets this accusation the most.  It's arguably the one where officiating can play the largest role.  
   
Here's why the NFL is not rigged:
    1) They'd have a better script if it was
    2) There'd be at least somewhat of a leak if it was
    3) Players would not put their bodies on the line if the outcome was predetermined
    4) Calls go against the teams that end up winning anyway
    5) If it was and word got out, a league worth hundreds of BILLIONS would go under
    6) Officiating is tough, and basically, any bad call can be defended to an extent
    7) When would the rigging of games have started, and why?  The NFL wouldn't need to.

Let's examine each of those points further.
    

1) They'd have a better script if it was
        This year's Super Bowl will be the Eagles vs. the Chiefs.  Each team has won a Super Bowl in the last 5 years.  Don't you think fans would want to see a matchup with teams that haven't won in a while?  Imagine how cool Bills vs. Cowboys or Bills vs. Vikings would be.  Or how about the 49ers, who haven't won in 28 years yet possess one of the largest followings in the NFL?  Granted, you have the Kelce brothers facing each other and Andy Reid facing his former team.  But that doesn't get non-NFL fans to tune in; it just makes NFL fans want to tune in slightly more.  If the NFL was rigged, they'd rig it for a Super Bowl that would generate the largest audience, and Eagles/Chiefs is not it.  

2) There'd be at least somewhat of a leak if it was
        Think about how many officials, referees, coaches, and staff would have to be in on this if the NFL was rigged.  With that many people involved, a leak would almost positively come out, whether it be a stray text/email, someone overhearing, etc.  It would just take one person out of those hundreds (if not thousands) to make a mistake.  Yes, the NFL can pay people to keep quiet, but they can't undo something getting out to the public.
    
3) Players would not put their bodies on the line if the outcome was predetermined
        The counterargument to this would be that the players aren't filled in on this.  They're like puppets in a show.  Ok, that's fair.  But these players know better than even us fans the line between a bad call and a game being rigged.  Yes, you see players griping at officials in basically every game, but you never see them call one out.  This isn't my strongest point, but if games were rigged so certain teams win, players on the opposition would notice.  Each team has a chance to win a game and hardly any point to officiating for the reason they lost.  

4) Calls go against the teams that end up winning anyway
        The counterargument to this would be that the NFL has to make it seem like the game isn't rigged.  Ok, fair, but if they're going to rig games, wouldn't they want to ensure they get the result they desire?  Anyway, I have seen my share of bad calls.  I have seen games where it does seem like one team benefits more from controversial calls.  But I can always go back to one or two calls that went against them.  Let's say you think there's a game you think was rigged in Team A's favor.  Now put yourself in the shoes of a huge fan of Team A.  The biggest homer.  You live and die by their success.  Watch that game from that perspective, and tell me there is not one call that doesn't upset you.  I bet that you can't.  

5) If it was and word got out, a league worth BILLIONS would go under 
    Imagine the shitstorm that would hit the NFL if word got out that a single game was rigged.  It may spell doom for the entire NFL.  At the very least, they would lose millions through losses of endorsements, advertisements, and merch and ticket sales.  Why would they risk rigging games for that?  To have slightly better matchups in January and February?  It's like risking your car to win tickets to a local college game.  It just wouldn't make sense to do.

6) Officiating is tough, and basically, any bad call can be defended to an extent
    Imagine a horrible call.  Just an awful one.  For me, I think of the non-PI call in the NFC Championship game between the Rams and Saints a few years ago.  Yes, that was a bad call.  But I can see how an NFL official can miss that.  It was a bang-bang play.  NFL officials have to monitor certain parts of the action going on, which involves trying to focus on multiple things at once.  Perhaps the official monitoring that side of the field was focused on something else nearby and didn't definitively see the entire PI happen.  Granted, they should focus on where the ball goes, but they do miss things.  The point I'm trying to make is that officiating is hard, referees are only human, and so long as we allow the human element in the officiating of our sports, bad calls will happen.  We can't just call out the game being rigged because a referee made a questionable or bad call.

7) When would the rigging of games have started, and why?  The NFL wouldn't need to.
    I bet most people who've said the "NFL is rigged" wouldn't be able to come to a consensus on this.  We all can certainly agree that the rigging of games has not existed since the start of the NFL.  So when would it have started, then?  Going back to point #5, the NFL does not need to risk losing millions for that.  If two teams were predetermined to make it to the Super Bowl by the league, I would wager that the league would go completely under if that word got out.  Imagine being a part of a franchise that got screwed by that.  You would be like, "Why bother?"  There'd likely be teams that would consider ceasing their operations, even if that cost thousands of people their jobs.  NFL owners would sue the league like you wouldn't believe.  

The NFL is a multi-billion dollar operation.  Fans and partner companies will fork over millions regardless of the results of games.  Yes, certain results help the league out more financially, but that boost is minuscule in the grand scheme of things.  The NFL is not rigged.  To suggest the NFL is rigged is as asinine as the NFL rigging games themselves.

The Officiating Epidemic

                There is an epidemic in the NFL.  It involves officiating of its games.  Every week now there seems to be a game that is decided by an officiating call which is considered iffy at best.  Every week there is a call that goes against a team which many consider to be the reason that team lost.  I think there are two things working here, causing what seems to be the worst officiating in NFL history.  Is 2019 the worst year for officiating in NFL history?  I doubt it, but I wouldn’t bet against it, either.  Yes, officiating has not been great and I think I know why, but I also believe their mistakes are tremendously magnified so they look so much worse than they are.  We have technology nowadays that can zoom in, slow things down to a snail's pace, and we have an angle on almost everything that happens.  Of course we're going to see mistakes made more easily.
                I believe there is a circle of bad officiating and scrutinizing happening right now in the NFL.  To put it simply, referees are heavily criticized, causing them to retire early and be replaced by less experienced and knowledgeable officials, and those officials try their best but their mistakes are magnified and the circle continues. If we aren't careful, our current officials may decide that their position as an NFL referee is not worth it and we will be left with something like the replacement referees we had in 2012.
                Imagine if all the older police officers in our country were replaced by younger police officers.  I think there would be a lot more unnecessary arrests and pullings over of cars because these younger cops wouldn’t have the experience to know when to try to ticket or arrest someone.  A similar thing is happening in the NFL right now where we are seeing more flags than ever, and some would definitely not be thrown by a more experienced official.
                I don’t have any numbers, but what I have noticed is a lot of head referees retiring in the last few years.  The head referee gets the final say and can override a bad call.  The referees I have seen retire recently are Gene Steratore, John Parry, Ed Hochuli, Terry McAulay, and Jeff Triplette.  Parry and Steratore were each under 55 when they retired.  Why did so many retire almost at once?  Because the job has become so stressful and demanding that they know for the sake of their mental health to not do it anymore.  I don’t know how much they get paid, but whatever it is isn’t worth the stress and pressure those guys go through.  Also, a few of these former referees (Steratore, Parry, and McAulay) were able to get positions as "Rules Analysts" with different television networks that broadcast NFL games.  Sounds like a much more cush job than being a head referee.
                Thus, we stand with a bunch of newer head referees in today’s game.  It wouldn’t surprise me to find out a lot of the other referees, judges, and umpires have retired as well.  The NFL does a good job of keeping it quiet; they don’t want people to know their officiating crews don’t have a ton of experience.  Fans are screaming for these officials to be held accountable, but if the NFL suspended or fired officials for a bad call or two, they wouldn’t have enough to cover their games, not to mention no one would want to referee the games anymore.  If any of us NFL fans were given the training and had to referee a game, I guarantee we’d not only do worse but we’d quit within a week or two.
                It’s unfortunately going to be a series of growing pains we’ll have to go through while these officials gain experience.  I haven’t even mentioned the constant rule changes and BS these officials have to put up with.  Officials are now being challenged for their judgment calls.  The replay officials in New York, led by former referee Al Riveron, are becoming infamous for not overturning the pass interference calls when it seems like they should.  The reason behind this is twofold: One, they are trying to support their officials unless they clearly made a mistake, and two, I don’t think they particularly like overturning a judgment call.  When they overturn a pass interference call, they are telling the referee that made that call that their judgment is off, whereas overturning other calls like catches is them telling the referee he just missed it.  I for one hope they take away the ability to challenge pass interference next year or have an independent person or party decide.
                The least we can do as fans is to be a bit more forgiving.  Don’t get me wrong, I hate bad officiating as much as anybody.  We can all remember bad calls in games our team lost.  For me as a Seahawks fan, I remember Super Bowl XL all too well.  What I don’t remember are bad calls against my Seahawks in games we won.  I know there are plenty, but I don’t remember them, because they didn’t impact the outcome of the game.  We focus on these calls and remember them for eons because they have the unfortunate distinction of impacting a game late and seeming to cause our team to lose.  I’d also like to point out that it doesn’t seem like too many calls cost the Patriots games.  They don’t ever seem to be on the wrong side of one that costs them the game.  But that is because they never put themselves in that position.  They usually play well enough that bad officiating calls that go against them don’t impact whether or not they win. 
                What I have noticed is that we tend to focus on the negative calls and forget the ones that went in our favor.  Referees are certainly not perfect because they are only human.  And NFL football is an immensely complicated game that happens very fast and requires officials to have the ability to focus on multiple things at once.  I know NFL referees make really bad calls that make us call them names like idiot, moron, among other insults that attack their intelligence.  I’m guilty of that.  But these guys are not idiots, in fact they’re probably smarter than most of us.  What they are are men put in a difficult position because of their love for the game of football. 
                I do think, however, something needs to be changed.  The training process for officials, for one, maybe.  I think they should go through a heavy amount of training each offseason.  Also, I’m not huge on Al Riveron being the senior vice president of officiating for the NFL.  They need someone in that position that will make the right call, even if the video evidence isn’t entirely clear.  Perhaps with technology advancements we can get more accurate shots of the action and perhaps even data. 
                We’re in a rough patch right now, I won’t lie.  The officiating in the NFL has never been as criticized and judged as it is now.  We just need to get through it.  I’m a positive-outlook kind of person, so I think officiating will get better over time, and then we can finally relax and enjoy games.  We just need to be patient and understanding until it does, and also realize it's just a game for most of  us.