My Thoughts on Each of the Survivor 50 Players

The Survivor 50 Cast has officially been revealed, and I'm somewhere between whelmed and excited.  I guess you could say my excitement is tempered.  There are a few things I'd like to comment on now, such as no players whose original season was between Seasons 19-31, and how we got 11 players from seasons 45-49.  Definitely some recency bias there.  But man, it is going to be so fun seeming some of these players interact.  For each player, I'm going to rate them on a scale of 1-5 (5 being the highest) on how much I'm personally clamoring to see them back (which includes how much I'll be rooting for them) and what I think their chances of winning are.  

After reviewing each player, I'm going to pick my Top 5 Duos I want to see interact.  Each duo will be someone new, so I won't use the same player for any two duos.   

Also, there are two rumored players from 49 on 50, but I won't comment on them just yet, since I haven't seen them play.  After 49, however, I'll come back and talk about them here.

Here we go, in order of their initial season...

Jenna Lewis-Dougherty - Borneo, All-Stars
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of Winning: 2
They had to have a token Borneo player, and I know people were rooting for Greg, maybe a Colleen or Gervase.  But Jenna works, I guess.  I kind of expect her run to go similarly to Kelly Wigglesworth's in Second Chances.  Possibly a purple edit with no real chance of winning.  But, you never know.  She will certainly not be a threat.  My biggest worry for her is the older players being targeted early, just like they were in Winners at War.

Colby Donaldson - Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 2
I don't think I've even seen what Colby looks like in recent years.  Surely he's nowhere near as athletic.  But he was the first legitimate star of Survivor, with people naming their kids after him.  One thing I've wondered is if he may have had more win equity in HvV than AO.  He had Hero pals on the jury.  If he can make friends and get to the end, you never know.  But like Jenna, I worry about the newbies ganging up on the "oldies".

Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick - Palau, Guatemala, Heroes vs. Villains
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 1
Stephanie couldn't win a season she had an edge on as a captain, so I don't think she'll be capable of winning here.  I actually expect her to be an early boot, like she was on HvV, as I worry about her ingratiating herself with other tribe members, especially more recent players.  Or she could slip on by.  It'll depend on what the main driving force will be on a lot of votes.

Cirie Fields - Panama: Exile Island, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Heroes vs. Villains, Game Changers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 4
Anyone else suffering Cirie fatigue?  That kinda rhymes.  And I didn't even really watch her Traitors season or her international Survivor season.  I worry the show may force her too much on us, or may try to hand her the win.  I'm okay with Cirie winning if it happens, but I don't want it in any way to be given to her.  Honestly, I'm kinda clamoring for her to go out in some way she hasn't gone yet.  

Ozzy Lusth - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, South Pacific, Game Changers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
Just... why?  I don't quite get it.  On Game Changers, we saw he had physically declined and could no longer dominate challenges.  That was filmed 9 years before 50 will film.  So Ozzy will have to rely on his social and strategic game.  IF he gets to the end, I could see it, but he'd have to get to the end.  Also, since he got into the adult entertainment industry, I'm surprised they wanted him back.  Hmm.

Coach Wade - Tocantins, Heroes vs. Villains, South Pacific
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 2
Coach is such a great character, even in his 50s, I'm sure he'll bring something to the show.  I wonder who he will say is the "dragon" of this season.  There are a lot of choices.  And honestly, it'd be smart for a lot of the newer players to bring him along as a potential FTC goat, like Sophie did in SP.  I don't think Coach's chances of winning are a "1", as if he plays a similar game to SP and owns up his game at the end (unlike what he did that season), he has a shot... I guess.

Aubry Bracco - Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Edge of Extinction
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 4
Typically, someone fairly smart (often a woman) wins these All-Star-type seasons, like Amber in All-Stars, Parvati in Micronesia, and Sandra in HvV.  Aubry could be that this season.  Is the fourth time the charm?  And yes, I don't really need to see her play again, but it is what it is.  I just think she's really going to fade into the background with larger names taking more focus.

Chrissy Hofbeck - Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
The show definitely "owes" Chrissy due to the stupid twist of forced fire-making that surprised the cast of that season.  I believe Jeff when he says it was planned (and not just put in because Ben was in danger), but I also believe he likely told Chrissy after the season how he probably felt bad with the way it played out and promised her a chance on a returning player season due to that.  Otherwise, her inclusion feels... a bit out of place.  She may get purpled, as I think she's one of the less interesting characters on this cast. 

Christian Hubicki - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 5
Chances of winning: 3
I have been clamoring for his return for years.  Thank goodness.   I think Christian's chances are somewhere in the middle.  He'll definitely have to keep his threat level low enough into the merge, should he make it that far.  If he plays a great game and gets to the end, I could see it.  But the problem is, I don't see him making the end.  

Angelina Keeley - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 2
It's hard to rank FTC losers higher than a 2 on chances of winning.  The only person to win AFTER losing at a FTC is Boston Rob.  But I'm fairly excited to see Angelina back.  I worry, however, that she won't be as engaging, funny, or meme-worthy.  I really hope she tries to negotiate something with Jeff, and the show would be smart to open that opportunity.  

Mike White - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 1
Mike is a millionaire already, so he's not going to win.  He would have to play the greatest game we've ever seen.  However, he may be worth a few funny moments on the show.  I just wasn't clamoring to see him, and we know he only got back on due to his friendship with Jeff, and how Jeff very likely told him he'd be on the next non-winners returning players season.

Rick Devens - Edge of Extinction
How much I want to see: 5
Chances of winning: 3
Dude was made for TV, and I'm excited to see him back.  He's kept in touch with the show, being the co-host of the On Fire podcast for a season.  Like Christian, I'll be rooting for him and hope to see him go far, but I'm worried about his chances of getting to the end.  

Jonathan Young - 42
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 1
Yes, I am putting Jonathan's chances of winning at a 1.  He has little to no social/strategic game, as we saw on 42.  Is there a chance he has some on 50?  Sure, but there's no way it'll be enough for him to win.  His best shot would be to absolutely dominate the individual challenges and be likable enough along the way to win.  But the moment he doesn't win one, he's gone.  I'll still be stoked to see him dominate challenges, and whoever gets him on their tribe is going to be very lucky.

Emily Flippen - 45
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 3
She can make good points and I think if she gets to the end in 45 against anyone except Dee, she likely wins.  I'm also surprised to see her, as I know she said on social media shortly after 45, that she likely wouldn't play again.  Well, I guess we all have to eat our words at some point.  There are certain players I know she won't like, such as Coach, Q, and Jonathan, and she's very likely to have someone like that on her starting tribe.  

Dee Valladares - 45
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
I almost wanted to put Dee's chances at a 1, but Sandra pulled off the back-to-back wins, and they have similar games, so I could see it.  But man, I wish they hadn't cast winners.  It'll be interesting to see how she downplays it.  I could see her being an early target, or make it very far.  High variance player to say the least.

Quintavius "Q" Burdette - 46
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 1
Like Coach, Q is such a great character for TV.  I cannot see him winning, however.  His problem is that I don't think he'd be taken seriously enough.  He's kind of like the male Angelina that way.  But he is going to have some interesting interactions with people, I can almost guarantee that.

Charlie Davis - 46
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 3
Charlie is the young white male who's come the closest to winning in the New Era, technically losing by a single vote.  I don't think he'll be considered a threat, which is good for him.  I wonder if he'll find another Maria on 50, perhaps Jenna, Chrissy, or heck, even Cirie.  I'd be down for any of those duos.

Tiffany Ervin - 46
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 3
I'm really perplexed by this one.  There are plenty of African-American women in the New Era to choose from, and they go with... Tiff.  Here's a list I'd personally rather see: Shan, Drea, Lauren, and Sai, and Star.  All to me are either better players or characters.  Tiff is a well-rounded Survivor player, but I don't think she excels at anything.  Perhaps she'll be the Wentworth of the season and blossom more of a player and character.  

Genevieve Mushaluk - 47
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 4
I was a bit surprised by this pick, mostly because Gen was purpled in the pre-merge on her season.  I really like her chances, but I worry because of the All-Star cast that she'll get purpled again.  If she wins, they better not.  There are so many threats that she could sneak by and be the Parvati/Amber of the season.

Kyle Fraser - 48
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 1
Like... why?  I don't dislike Kyle at all.  As a character, he was mid.  Not boring, but not the most engaging, either.  As a player, well, he just won, so why?  Kyle ties Jenna (6 and 8) and JT (18 and 20) as the players who returned most quickly after winning.  Neither of them did particularly well on their returning seasons, although Jenna left of her own accord.  I cannot see Kyle doing well, and his target as a winner will either carry him as a goat or be a target for him at some point.

Joe Hunter - 48
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
I just finished his season, so I'm not exactly clamoring to see him back at the moment, especially considering he wasn't the most interesting character.  Will he find another Eva this season?  There aren't many options for someone of that archetype.  I could see him trying to Godfather his way through the season but be on the outs at some point, like Boston Rob was on WaW.  He's got almost no shot.

Kamilla Karthigesu - 48
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 4
Yes, I actually want to see Kamilla back, but I wasn't counting on it with Kyle.  They'll likely be put on different starting tribes, however, but if they both make it to the merge, Kyle better do everything in his power to help her.  Although I could definitely see if they both make the merge, that putting a target on both of their backs.  But Kamilla is one of the smarter players in recent history.  I could see it.  If she did win, she would tie Jeremy Collins (29-31) in the quickest return from the game to a winning season.  Boston Rob also won two seasons after he played, but his winning game was his fourth time playing. 

And there are two players on 49 who are also on 50, who I did see who they are, but I won't spoil it here.  But at this point, I would give each of their "want to see" scores a 1 and a chances of winning also a 1, because no one has won any season playing back-to-back.  

And as previously promised, here are 5 duos I'm excited to see interact:

- Christian and Kamilla
Or Christian with anyone smart.  I want to see them decode a really tough puzzle together.  That'd be fun.  

- Coach and Q
Can you imagine the chaos?  I bet Coach will make Q his dragon if the opportunity arises.

- Colby and Jonathan
The OG challenge beast and the New Era challenge beast.  I know Jonathan must look up to Colby, so this would be cool to see.  I know Jonathan is good friends with Boston Rob, so this is a natural fit.

- Cirie and Devens 
Or Charlie, Christian, really any likable younger man.  I bet she'll bond with someone like that.  

- Aubry and Emily
I bet they will form an instant connection if given the chance.  Let's hope they are.  

And lastly, just for organization's sake, here's everyone ranked by their chances of winning:

1's: 
Stephanie LaGrossa-Kendrick
Mike White
Jonathan Young
Q Burdette
Kyle Fraser

2's: 
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Colby Donaldson
Ozzy Lusth
Coach Wade
Chrissy Hofbeck
Angelina Keeley
Dee Valladares
Joe Hunter

3's: 
Christian Hubicki
Rick Devens
Emily Flippen
Charlie Davis
Tiffany Ervin

4's: 
Cirie Fields
Aubry Bracco
Genevieve Mushaluk
Kamilla Karthigesu

And I did not give out any 5's.  Well, it's hard to figure out what each player's threat levels are going to be like coming into this.  And I didn't really want to hand out any 5's because that's basically giving away my winner pick.  Anyway, I'll come back and add the players from 49 once that is over, and probably do another post or two about this cast before the season even airs.  

My Votes in Each Round of Survivor 50's Fan Voting

Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans (Lame title, IMO) has started its online voting as they're going to allow fans to have an impact on certain game elements.  A lot are cosmetic, but some will impact how the showrunners and producers run the game.  Here are the rounds and votes so far, what I said for each, and why.  

ROUND 1

Rice or no rice?  

I said: Rice

I think Survivors play a more intelligent and well-thought-out game when they aren't nearly starving to death.  Operation Italy doesn't happen in 47 without the food reward.  Give them rice, I say.  Yes, I like Survivor to be tough, but this still allows the game to be tough.  They had rice in S2: The Australian Outback, one of the toughest seasons.  It also adds a potential layer of drama with someone maybe eating too much rice, them using up too much too soon, or someone not cooking the rice well.  

Forced Fire-Making at Final 4?

I said: No Fire-Making

I wish Jeff understood that by introducing Final 4 Firemaking, it only made it so that the threats were taken out even sooner, and we got less time with them.  Some say Ben only won HHH because of this, but I say he only won it because of all the idols he kept finding.  So if Jeff wants big names like Ben to get to the end, allow Idols to be good through the Final 4.  Also, if you're a good enough player, you can stay under the radar, and you'll be a part of the majority at Final 4.  Allow firemaking if there's a deadlock at Final 4, sure, but let them have a chance to vote first.  

Live Reunion in Los Angeles or Fiji Aftershow?

I said: Live Reunion in Los Angeles

This is a no-brainer.  The Fiji aftershow is downright cruel to the final tribal council losers.  At least give them time to reflect on their game and prepare themselves for what to say if they lose.  Plus, the live reunion allows us to get all players in on it, not just the ones who made the jury.  I'm tired of the pre-jurors getting snubbed.  

Tribe Colors

I said: Orange, Teal, and Purple

First off, *sigh*, it looks like it's going to be another three tribe season.  No way one of the three is the merge tribe.  Anyway, it was between this and Blue, Orange, and Green for me.  I chose the one I did because we don't see teal enough as a tribe color.  But the remaining two options each contained colors that have been used 3+ times in the New Era.  My second choice would've been Blue, Orange, and Green, because those are my three favorite colors.  I guess I'd also be okay with Red, Green, and Yellow, since those were the colors in the first returning player season ever (All-Stars, Season 8), so it would pay homage to that.

ROUND 2

Final 4 Challenge

I said: Simmotion

What can I say, I love Simmotion.  If you don't know, it's the one where you have to constantly catch the balls out of the chutes and put them back on top as they make their way down a mechanism, and you slowly add more balls to it, increasing the difficulty.  It really does a good job of showing which Survivors still have the best focus in the game.  Plus, it's a classic going back to (at least) S18: Tocantins.  I decided against the Final 4 challenge from 46 because pre-game alliances could affect whether someone decides to help another player here.  They could abandon their puzzle and help the other player know when to catch their ball.  I don't think people want to see that.  The third option looked way too similar to dozens of other new era challenges: an obstacle course with a puzzle at the end.  Easy one to rule out.  

Advantages: How much power?

I said: Minimal power

There is a fine line between too many advantages and not enough.  I think the consensus on it is less than what Jeff and production think, which is why I chose "minimal" power.  Also, let the players play.  They will be legends of the game, after all.  And yes, a lot of great game moments have come from an idol or advantage being involved, but typically not multiple, and typically it's a situation not too convoluted or complex to understand.  Lastly, there's a good chance a lot of viewers will be returning to the show for the first time in years, likely due to a returning player they like, so they really shouldn't overcomplicate the game for anyone returning after not watching the past dozen seasons or more.  

Tribe Swap or No Tribe Swap?

I said: Tribe Swap

This one I debated on.  I don't like how the showrunners have only used a tribe swap when a tribe has struggled in the New Era.  It should be more random.  If they keep it up, players may throw a challenge to avoid a tribe swap.  But maybe they want that.  Anyway, tribe swaps add a layer of complexity to the game, and especially for a returning player season, we will want to see as many interactions between players as possible.  If this were a newbie season we were voting on, I'd likely say "no swap" since I like to see tribal lines tested, not blurred.  But again, returning player season.  Got to have as many interactions as possible.

ROUND 3

Immunity Necklace Design

I said: Option B (Bird and wingspan make up half of the necklace)

Option A isn't bad, but minus the bird emblem, it looks like dozens of other immunity necklaces.  Option B, however, is pretty sick.  The literal wingspan of the bird makes up half the necklace.  You would look like you literally have a mythical bird on your chest when wearing it.  Whereas the other one is relegated to a round emblem on the bottom of it.  

Tribe Supplies

I said: Give them Tribe Supplies

This goes with the rice, so I'm sure people will typically have the same answer for this as they did for rice.  I said to give them supplies.  The "sweat vs. savvy" and the one-on-ones in recent seasons have been underwhelming and a waste of time, frankly.  Don't make whether or not they have a pot or machete yet or flint a part of the game.  Let the players be the focus.  Also, why even have this be a part of the game if they don't even bother to show the tribes struggling when they don't have supplies?

Twists

I said: Keep them straightforward/rare

I'm a big fan of old school Survivor.  New School has had its fun with twists, but I fear introducing twists could leave older players in the dust, strategically.  Like in Winners at War, I don't want to see all the old school players go early.  Give them a chance.  Keep the game simple and give them a chance to run their game without having twists they wouldn't have had to worry about on their original season(s). 

ROUND 4

Idols or No Idols?

I said: No Idols

A bit disappointing this final round of voting only had one thing for us to vote on.  I voted "No Idols", but I could've been convinced to vote the other way.  I voted "No Idols" to basically spite Jeff and the producers.  The way they word some of these, they think we can't have a good season of Survivor anymore without a bunch of twists and idols and advantages.  But here's the other thing: I'd rather have a season with no idols than a season with too many idols.  I think this vote will be a bit close and I ultimately think there being Idols will win, but I just wanted to show Jeff and production more of us want a less twist and Idol-heavy season than he may think.