Saturday, December 19, 2020

Rating Survivor Seasons

This is part 2 of 3 of my Survivor posts, and this time I am going to rate each season on four different attributes: 1. The players.  Did this season have memorable players?  Did a lot of the players come back to play again, or just one?  2. The twists.  How well received were the twists/changes by the Survivor community?  This will also include the challenges a bit, and if they had memorable challenges it will help this score.  3. The result.  Did good players make it far, or were we robbed of a great finish? 4. The theme/location.  This ties into the twists, but I will still keep it separate.  Was the theme or location of the season well received?  How about how they divided tribes at the start?


Borneo
Players: 3, Twists: 3, Result: 3, Theme: 5, Total: 14/20
The first season of Survivor is quite different.  The final vote was not read in front of a live studio audience.  There are some memorable players, namely the winner, Rich, Rudy, Jenna, and Sue.  But there were way too many forgettable players.  Of course, the first season didn’t have many twists, but it was the first season so I just let it have an average rating.  The result wasn’t perfectly ideal because everyone, producers included, wanted Rudy to win.  The theme… well how can you top the first season?

Australian Outback
Players: 4, Twists: 3, Result: 4, Theme: 5, Total: 16/20
The second season of Survivor was definitely more entertaining than the first.  I think they had a bit more memorable players, with a lot of returning players including Colby, Jerri, Tina, Amber, Jeff, and Michael.  I don’t recall too many twists, but they had decent challenges and the fact Colby got surprised by his mom was cool.  Tina winning wasn’t perfectly ideal; I think America wanted Colby, but at least a nice player won in Tina and not Keith.  The Outback theme is one of Survivor’s best, and it’s a bit of a shame they haven’t gone back to Australia. 

Africa
Players: 4, Twists: 4, Result: 4, Theme: 5, Total: 17/20
Survivor stays on the rise as Ethan wins over Kim.  There was also Big Tom and Lex, but not too many memorable or returning players after that.  The tribe switch was introduced to great results, as it adds a complexity to the game.  Ethan winning is about as good as it can get, although Big Tom should’ve been in the Final 3 and America loved him.  Can’t really beat the African jungle theme, but at least they were able to go back to that continent once more. 

Marquesas
Players: 3, Twists: 3, Result: 3, Theme: 2, Total: 11/20
Survivor took a bit of a nose dive here, in my opinion.  There were some memorable players, such as Boston Rob, but he didn’t make it that far.  The ones that made it far… meh.  The twists; well, I can’t really recall any, but none that people hated, either.  Kathy and Paschal were the two favorites in the Final 4, yet neither made the Final 2, although Vecepia is still pretty well-liked (and was Survivor’s first minority winner).  By the way, does anyone really remember where “Marquesas” is?  Meh on the theme. 

Thailand
Players: 1, Twists: 4, Result: 2, Theme: 3, Total: 10/20
Thailand has long been considered one of Survivor’s worst seasons, and I have to admit, it’s not particularly fun to watch.  Only one player ever returned to play again, Shii-Ann, and she didn’t even make the jury.  I liked the twist of delaying the merge and they had some really cool challenges.  Brian winning… I mean, I personally like it because he was definitely the best player, but he’s not a good person.  They went to an Asian country for the first time, so that was cool, although it wasn’t really used in challenges/twists.

Amazon
Players: 3, Twists: 3, Result: 4, Theme: 4, Total: 14/20
Survivor Amazon was known for dividing the tribes by gender, and it was received with mixed reactions.  The players were fairly memorable, namely Jenna, Heidi, and Rob.  The challenges were decent, especially the “Go Fish” type-one, which allowed the males and females to flirt with each other.  Jenna winning was fairly ideal, especially with what she had to go through with her mother a year later.  And to go to the Amazon rainforest was pretty cool; shame they haven’t since.

Pearl Islands
Players: 5, Twists: 2, Result: 3, Theme: 5, Total: 15/20
Survivor is back on the rise with Pearl Islands.  I had to give them a 5 for players mainly for introducing us to Rupert, but also to Sandra, Jonny Fairplay, and Andrew Savage.  I had to dock them on the twists, because of the Outcasts twist that reintroduced players into the game that had previously gotten voted out.  The result was okay with Sandra winning, but having Fairplay get further than Rupert and having Lil, an outcast, make it to the end was not.  The theme was clearly pirate based, and I loved it.  They should have done more seasons like that. 

All-Stars
Players: 5, Twists: 3, Result: 3, Theme: 4, Total: 15/20
The first season to feature returning castaways, All-Stars was definitely popular among the fans.  The players were very interesting, and for the first time we got to see our favorites from different seasons interact with one another in the game.  I don’t recall too many twists, other than having three tribes for the first time, which was cool.  The result could have been better as people wanted Rupert to win (and in retrospect, probably Rob).  The theme was All-Stars, what more could you expect?

Vanuatu
Players: 2, Twists: 2, Result: 3, Theme: 4, Total: 11/20
Survivor didn’t follow up All-Stars particularly strongly.  Not too many memorable or returning players, at least not with the men.  There was at least Eliza, Twila, and Ami.  The twist of dividing by gender was used again and it was again met with mixed reaction and results.  The result of Chris winning after being the last man for many votes was interesting.  The theme was pretty cool, having a volcanic backdrop (and an earthquake).

Palau
Players: 4, Twists: 3, Result: 4, Theme: 2, Total: 13/20
Palau was an interesting one, for sure.  The players were fairly memorable, namely Tom, Ian, and Steph.  The twists were ok, although they did introduce exile island for the first time, but I don’t like how they had people eliminate two castaways (Jonathan and Wanda) almost instantly from the game.  Tom’s one of the most likable winners they’ve had, although they could’ve had more balanced tribes.  The theme was forgettable, just seemed like they picked a random island location.  It was featured a bit in challenges (going to the sunken ship to retrieve bottles, for one), but not enough.

Guatemala
Players: 2, Twists: 3, Result: 3. Theme: 4, Total: 12/20
Guatemala is a pretty darn forgettable season according to most Survivor fans.  The few memorable players were the returning ones in Steph and Bobby Jon.  The introduction of the Hidden Immunity Idol was cool, but I hated the dilemma they sprang on Cindy, forced to choose between owning a car herself or giving everyone else one.  Danni winning is kind of forgettable, and this season would have benefited better from Rafe winning.  I liked the idea of going to Central America and they really incorporated the Mayan theme well.

Panama/Exile Island
Players: 3, Twists: 4, Result: 2, Theme: 3, Total: 12/20
This season had a ton of potential and kind of came up flat.  There were quite a few interesting players, namely Cirie, Danielle, Terry, and Shane.  The twist of four tribes separated by age and gender was smartly used for only a little bit, and Exile Island was a decent idea.  The result of Aras winning wasn’t perfectly ideal; He was forgettable and Terry and Cirie were more likable.  The final two of him and Danielle was disappointing.  The theme was cool, and Panama is a great location, but why did they have to give this season two names?  Makes it confusing.

Cook Islands
Players: 5, Twists: 1, Result: 5, Theme: 3, Total: 14/20
This is a very polarizing season for sure.  While it contained many memorable players (Yul, Ozzy, Parvati, Candice, Penner), its twist of dividing by race was not well-received at all, and nor in retrospect was the all powerful Idol that could be played after the votes were read.  The result of Yul beating out Ozzy and Becky was pretty ideal, how can you beat that?  The Cook Islands was a pretty decent location choice, although not particularly memorable.

Fiji
Players: 2, Twists: 1, Result: 3, Theme: 3, Total: 9/20
This might be the worst season in Survivor history (at least in the first 20).  There weren’t many memorable players outside of Yau-Man and Rocky.  The twist of having one tribe live in luxury while the other lived with nothing was predictably bad and resulted in the tribe with luxuries dominating challenges.  The result of Earl winning sort of saved the season from complete disaster, although Yau-Man winning would have been better.  The Fiji theme is ok and I liked how they incorporated native Fijians, but now that’s the only location they film. 

China
Players: 4, Twists: 3, Result: 3, Theme: 4, Total: 14/20
China was a pretty decent season and it’s hard to not like it.  There were a lot of memorable players including Amanda, Courtney, Denise, Peih-Gee, and James.  The twist of stealing two players from the other tribe failed, but I liked the challenges they had and putting Idols at both camps.  The result of Todd winning is just okay since there were more likable players.  The Chinese theme was awesome, and they sure incorporated it into most of the challenges.

Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites
Players: 4, Twists: 3, Result: 4, Theme: 3, Total: 14/20
Survivor: Micronesia had so much potential but ultimately it doesn’t outshine other seasons and, in my opinion, is one of the worst seasons with at least half-returning players.  The favorites were interesting, but the fans were not particularly memorable.  The twists were ok, not too many of them, the memorable ones being two people on Exile Island and the Idols at the beginning.  Can’t really complain about Parvati winning, although male Favorites James and Ozzy were hoped by many to go further.  The idea of putting fans against players they watched was interesting, although not a particularly memorable location.

Gabon
Players: 3, Twists: 3, Result: 3, Theme: 4, Total: 13/20
Survivor: Gabon was certainly memorable, mainly for its location.  The players were interesting, namely Sugar, Randy, Crystal, and Kenny.  It’s a shame Kenny hasn’t returned.  The twists were ok, including a tribe switch and a very isolated Exile Island that gave the player the option of Clue or Luxury.  The result of Bob winning, while he’s likable, is not very memorable.  He wasn’t a very strong strategic player.  The theme was awesome, returning to Africa, although there wasn’t quite enough African culture incorporated.

Tocantins
Players: 4, Twists: 4, Result: 4, Theme: 4, Total: 16/20
I think Tocantins may be one of the most underrated seasons.  JT, Stephen, Coach, and Tyson led the way as memorable players that played again.  The twists were nicely done, with opposing tribe members going to Exile Island and the twist at the beginning of signaling out your weakest player.  The result of JT winning is pretty darn ideal, although it would’ve been cool to see Coach/Tyson make it a bit further.  The theme was cool: the South American highlands of Brazil. 

Samoa
Players: 4, Twists: 3, Result: 3, Theme: 3, Total: 13/20
The season that Russell built.  If not for one Russell Hantz, this season would be one of the most forgettable ones in Survivor history.  Russell almost alone accounts for the player score, although Shambo and Laura were cool.  The twists weren’t particularly memorable and they could’ve benefited from a tribe swap.  The result of Natalie winning isn’t ideal; I think this season would have benefited from Russell winning.  I like going to Samoa for a season, but I feel the Samoan culture wasn’t incorporated quite enough.

Heroes vs. Villains
Players: 5, Twists: 4, Result: 4, Theme: 5, Total: 18/20
One of Survivor’s most memorable seasons is this one, Heroes vs. Villains.  They really couldn’t have chosen better Heroes or Villains.  I liked how they teased the players with a merge, only to wait until Final 10.  The result of Sandra winning (again) was a surprise, but it was fitting for this all-star type of season.  The Heroes voting for Sandra out of spite wasn’t the best, but Sandra is still indeed a fan favorite.  The theme of pitting good-natured people against manipulators was an awesome idea; I’d still like to see a Heroes vs. Villains 2, although some argue that a second one would tarnish the legacy of this one. 

Nicaragua
Players: 2, Twists: 3, Result: 3, Theme: 2, Total: 10/20
Nicaragua has the unfortunate distinction of being sandwiched between Heroes vs. Villains and Redemption Island.  Not ideal.  This is definitely one of the more forgettable casts with only Brenda having played twice; at least Jimmy Johnson, Marty, and Sash were cool.  And I just found out it was the oldest cast in Survivor history until Season 40, Winners at War.  The twist of separating the players by age didn’t work terribly well; the younger tribe predictably won more challenges.  Fabio winning was pretty cool, but I feel an elder should have won like Jane or Holly.  The Nicaraguan culture wasn’t incorporated enough, and the theme kind of went by the wayside.

Redemption Island
Players: 3, Twists: 2, Result: 5, Theme: 3, Total: 13/20
Redemption Island became the second season to give players a chance to get back into the game after being voted out (after the Outcasts twist in Pearl Islands).  The players were ok, with the only memorable ones outside of Rob and Russell being Phillip and Andrea.  The twist was not too well received and they fortunately didn’t keep it up too long.  And I hated how they substituted reward challenges with the Redemption Island duel.  And to top it off, the fact they didn’t do a tribe switch hurt this season as the Zapatera’s got picked off one by one, predictably.  The result of Rob winning, however, saved this season.  What if Rob hadn’t won?  People might have said Survivor’s on it’s way out; it was getting to be that way.  The theme was okay, but they barely mentioned the place they were on, and it was the same as the previous season.  Very meh.

South Pacific
Players: 4, Twists: 2, Result: 4, Theme: 2, Total: 12/20
I don’t think this season was bad by any means, but it pales in comparison to others and future seasons.  I think it was around this time Survivor started losing a lot of their fanbase.  The players were fairly memorable, namely Brandon, Sophie, Cochran, and Dawn, and that’s not even counting the two returning players in Coach and Ozzy.  The Redemption Island twist was again in play and again it wasn’t that great of a twist.  Sophie beating Coach was a surprise, but not an unwelcome one.  The theme… the might as well have called it Redemption Island 2 since they again brought two former male players back, but at least they changed locations. 

One World
Players: 3, Twists: 3, Result: 3, Theme: 2, Total: 11/20
One World is certainly a fairly entertaining season, but it’s not a well-respected season.  There were a few memorable players, but not always for good reasons.  Kim, Troyzan, Kat, and Colton came back again, but many players on this season are not well-liked, such as Colton and Alicia.  The twist of the one world theme was only done once, which shows it wasn’t that great of a twist, but the tribe swap helped so that it wasn’t just men against women.  The result of Kim winning is a pretty desirable one as she is a likable, yet as Jeff pointed out at the reunion, it was pretty obvious and predictable.  I don’t even know if they mentioned where this season was filmed, which shows the change in the theme of this and future seasons.  Men against women again?  It was a mediocre twist at best, again. 

Philippines
Players: 3, Twists: 3, Result: 4, Theme: 3, Total: 13/20
Survivor Philippines was a very solid season, with most players that made the jury being fairly memorable.  Giving three players that were medically evacuated another shot was awesome to see, as we got to close the books on three memorable players.  But of all the non-winning players, only Malcolm and Abi returned to play again.  There weren’t too many twists, so the game was not overly complicated, which I liked.  The result was pretty inspiring, to see Denise go to every tribal council and win.  I can’t give a full 5 for the result because Malcolm was a bit more well-liked and no one, me especially, likes to see a tribe get decimated.  I like how the Filippino theme was incorporated, and they even had a reward where the winners got to visit a local Filippino village.

Caramoan
Players: 3, Twists: 4, Result: 4, Theme: 3, Total: 14/20
Caramoan (Fans vs. Favorites 2) was the start of the Survivor “resurgence”.  There were a few likable players, namely Cochran, Malcolm, and Brenda, but there were too many forgettable fans.  There weren’t many twists, but the tribe swap was perfectly timed.  I couldn’t give it a 5 because I didn’t like the dilemma they forced upon Brenda, which ultimately led to her getting voted out. Cochran is one of many people’s favorite winners, but he could have gone against better competition (better than weeping Dawn and lame Sherry).  The semi-popular theme of Fans vs. Favorites was used again, and for (so far) the 2nd to last time, the location was in the title. 

Blood vs. Water
Players: 4, Twists: 2, Result: 4, Theme: 3, Total: 13/20
Blood vs. Water was the start of Survivor really focusing on the theme and types of players on the season, rather than the location.  What made the cast great was not only the returning players, but a lot of loved ones who were interesting themselves, including Ciera, Brad, and Hayden.  The twists of this season were pretty bad.  Redemption Island returned as a way to add a twist in the Blood vs. Water theme, but players having an opportunity to return to the game after being voted out has never been well-received.  Also, this meant there were no separate reward challenges, which really hurt this season.  The idol clues were mostly burned in the fire, but the twist that angers me most is having to vote someone out on day 2 without getting to know one another.  This resulted in us losing Rupert.  That’s why I couldn’t give a 5 for result, as Tyson winning is a pretty desirable result.  The theme was okay, but the execution fell flat.  Jeff overhyped it at times and it seemed like they were desperate for ideas. 

Cagayan (Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty)
Players: 4, Twists: 3, Result: 4, Theme: 3, Total: 14/20
The season we were introduced to our future king, Tony!  Cagayan is definitely a solid season.  The cast has always been lauded as being a great cast.  The final three of the Brain tribe all came back for second chance (Spencer, Kass, Tasha).  There’s Tony of course, as well as Sarah and Woo.  I didn’t really like the “Super Idol” idea Tyler Perry had, and it kind of fell flat.  Tony never even had to use it.  I did like going back to a final 2 again, although I wish they had stuck with it in future seasons.  Tony winning made him a very deserving winner, although most wish Spencer could’ve gotten farther.  The theme was all right; I’m not a huge fan of dividing tribes like this, as players feel pressure to live up to their tribe’s moniker. 

San Juan Del Sur (Blood vs. Water 2)
Players: 3, Twists: 4, Result: 3, Theme: 2, Total: 12/20
This isn’t a particularly memorable season for being great.  The cast was somewhat decent--we got introduced to Jeremy, Natalie, and Keith.  But a large part of the cast was unlikable: Rocker, Julie, Reed, Drew, and Alec all gave us reasons to dislike them.  The twists were well-timed I thought, and I liked the pairs of loved ones facing off for reward in the beginning.  The tribes were one-sided before the tribe swap, and Natalie winning was ok, but she never controlled the game.  The theme was a reuse of Blood vs. Water but this time no returning players, which in my opinion was a bit of a let down. 

Worlds Apart (White Collar vs. Blue Collar vs. No Collar
Players: 4, Twists: 3, Result: 3, Theme: 3, Total: 13/20
Worlds Apart is a decent season, carried by its memorable cast.  However, not everyone was memorable for good reasons.  Will, Dan, and Rodney all made disparaging remarks or comments against women, and none have been brought back as a result.  But they brought back four other players, Joe, Hali, Shirin, and Sierra.  The twists weren’t many, but this was the first season they introduced an advantage other than an idol (An extra vote).  I also despised how often they were split into teams after the merge for reward challenges.  Mike winning is only somewhat ideal, as he wasn’t a great strategist or social player.  And the theme was only partially well-received, it seemed kind of forced and lame.  There was also very few mentions of the filming location, Nicaragua. 

Cambodia: Second Chance
Players: 4, Twists: 3, Result: 4, Theme: 4, Total: 15/20
Is this really one of the better seasons in Survivor history?  It might be.  A cast made of all-returning players is always entertaining, but the cast was largely recent players and early season players.  There were seven players from San Juan Del Sur and Cagayan combined, including the final 5.  I wasn’t a huge fan of the twists, namely two tribe swaps, which just overly complicated the game and resulted in these “voting blocks”.  The result of Jeremy winning, I mean, how can you not like that?  I just wish players like Joe and even Fischbach made it further.  The theme of second chances was cool, but overused a tad.  And I like how they incorporated the Cambodian theme quite a bit, especially at a cool reward challenge.

Kaoh Rong (Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty 2)
Players: 3, Twists: 3, Result: 3, Theme: 3, Total: 12/20
This was a very average season at best.  The cast isn’t universally revered as no one outside of the final 3 returned to play again, other than Caleb.  The twists were very underwhelming, and the remove a juror twist was not well-received.  The result of Michele winning at first was not well-received (as people felt Aubry deserved to win), but I think over time people have respected Michele’s game more and more.  She later proved in WAW that she is a really good player.  And rehashing a gimmicky theme led to mediocre results.  This will always be a very “meh” season. 

Millennials vs. Gen X
Players: 3, Twists: 3, Result: 4, Theme: 3, Total: 13/20
Not much better than Kaoh Rong is MvGx.  The players weren’t extremely memorable outside of Adam, Zeke, and David.  The twists were okay, but this season further expanded the advantages, introducing the legacy advantage.  The result of Adam winning is pretty ideal, as his mom died from lung cancer, but David winning would have been the perfect capper on the season.  The theme was all right; it’s the best result of a season where the tribes were divided by age.  But this started the string of every season after being filmed in Fiji, so I couldn’t score it high there, either.  Another so-so season. 

Game Changers
Players: 3, Twists: 2, Result: 3, Theme: 3, Total: 11/20
This is perhaps the worst all-returning player season.  I rated the players so low because some “game changer” choices were very questionable, such as Halli, Sierra, Troyzan, Varner, and Debbie.  The twists are rated low because there were too many tribe swaps and too many advantages.  The result is okay, but too many big players were gone early (Tony, Sandra, JT, Ozzy), and not many wanted to see Culpepper and Troyzan in the end.  At least Sierra is a respectable winner.  The theme was an all right idea, if only they chose actual game changers. 

Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers
Players: 3, Twists: 2, Result: 3, Theme: 2, Total: 10/20
Is this season really that bad?  I really didn’t particularly enjoy it, in all honesty.  The cast was all right, although I don’t see many returning for future seasons.  The twist of forced firemaking at Final 4 notoriously started this season, and most Survivor fans despise it.  Ben is a respectable winner, although a lot of Survivor fans don’t really respect his gameplay.  And the theme was very so-so at best.  Sounds like they just came up with three random words that started with the same letter.  Also, remind me again how a data analyst/actuary is a hero

Ghost Island
Players: 2, Twists: 2, Result: 3, Theme: 3, Total: 10/20
Ghost Island may be just as bad as its predecessor, if not worse.  The cast was largely lackluster.  Wendell and Dom were fairly interesting, and Donathan was okay, but that’s it.  Angela, Laurel, Sebastian, and Chelsea, who all made it far, were boring.  The twists were ok, at least the advantages were call-backs.  But there were too many tribe swaps (again) and the original Malolo just got picked off anyway.  Anytime a minority wins, I think it’s good for Survivor, and Wendell was a worthy winner.  The theme saved this season, as it was definitely the most interesting aspect of the season (more so than the cast or gameplay).  This is not a season I particularly enjoyed rewatching. 

David vs. Goliath
Players: 3, Twists: 2, Result: 3, Theme: 4, Total: 12/20
David vs. Goliath was definitely an improved season from the last.  The cast was decent, with notable players like Nick, Angelina, Christian, and Gabby.  There again were too many advantages, but at least they made one tribal exciting (the idol nullifier tribal).  The result of a David winning in Nick is pretty desirable, but Christian would have been a more ideal winner, and the Davids got decimated early.  I look at this theme as an improved version of Fiji’s.  It’s the haves vs. the have nots, but referring to outside the game rather than inside.  So I liked the theme. 

Edge of Extinction
Players: 3, Twists: 2, Result: 2, Theme: 2, Total: 9/20
Is this the worst season so far?  It might be.  The cast was the best part of the season, although the majority of the original Kama tribe was pretty boring.  The Edge of Extinction twist is almost universally hated by Survivor fans.  Again, the advantages were a bit too much.  For the first time, a person voted out of the game returned to win it.  Therefore the result is a low score.  The theme is also the biggest twist of the season.  At least they brought back some likable return players.  But they largely did not factor into this season. 

Island of the Idols
Players: 1, Twists: 2, Result: 2, Theme: 3, Total: 8/20
Now this is the worst season of Survivor.  First off, the cast is a huge let-down.  There were a ton of uninteresting players, and a few that were very unlikable, namely Dan, Elizabeth, and Missy.  At least there was Janet, but she was voted out too soon.  The twists were largely unmemorable or overly complicated.  The result was okay, at best, with yet again another male winning (although we can’t say Noura deserved it).  This season could have been saved by Janet or maybe Elaine winning.  The theme of having Rob and Sandra coach the contestants was easily the most memorable and interesting part of the season, but they largely didn’t factor into the season.  Their commentary at tribals was interesting, at least.

Winners at War
Players: 5, Twists: 2, Result: 3, Theme: 5, Total: 15/20
Winners at War will long be debated on how good of a season it really is.  You can’t find a more memorable cast of players: All winners.  The twist of the Edge failed miserably again, as Natalie, the first person voted out, made it to the final tribal council and almost won.  Also, there were way too many advantages in the game, making it way too hard for the average person to keep track of.  I will say Fire Tokens were a fairly nice touch; it’s just the execution fell flat for them.  The result of Tony winning is well-deserved, but I had to take off a point for the old school players getting picked off so early and a point for Natalie making it to the end.  I have to admit it would have been better if someone more entrenched in Survivor lore made it to the end, such as Boston Rob, Ethan, Parvati, Tyson, or Yul.  The theme though, which is all winners, is something that had long been rumored and we knew it would be a theme well worth watching.  So all in all, this was one of the better seasons, but it was not the best, mainly because of the Edge.  So by my rankings, here are the Top 10 seasons of Survivor: 1. Heroes vs. Villains 2. Africa 3. Australian Outback 4. Tocantins 5. All Stars 6. Winners at War 7. Pearl Islands 8. Cambodia: Second Chance 9. Cagayan

10. Borneo I had to choose my personal preferences when it came to the final two in the top ten. Just missing it were: Amazon, Cook Islands, China, Micronesia (FvF), and Caramoan. Now, the bottom 5, with the worst first: 1. Island of the Idols 2. Edge of Extinction 3. Fiji 4. Thailand 5. Nicaragua Just missing it were Ghost Island and Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers. Yikes, not a great bunch of seasons, and in this group of seven, three were from the most recent six seasons. Ouch. Well, that's all I have for now. If and when Survivor continues, I may add on to this list.

Survivor's Luckiest and Unluckiest Players of Each Season

 I recently finished watching through each season of Survivor for a second time, and I thought I'd take advantage of that by doing a few posts about the show.  This is part one of a three part series.  In this one, as you can gather from the title, I am going to name the luckiest and unluckiest player of each season.  Survivor requires a certain amount of luck to win (although the winner wasn't always the luckiest player, in fact, they often weren't).  Also, if you have too much bad luck, you can see yourself gone from the game, even though you might have previously been in a good position.  Without further ado, going season by season, the luckiest and unluckiest players:


Borneo, Unlucky: Joel Klug

Something I had almost forgotten about was that Joel got voted out over something incredibly stupid.  Gervase, one of his allies, made a joke about how women are like cows, and Joel laughed along with it.  This upset the women on their tribe, and instead of them targeting the one who told the joke, they went after the guy who laughed about it.  Joel was a force in challenges, and perhaps if he survives until the merge he goes far.  But one laugh at a joke did him in.  Unlucky. 


Borneo, Lucky: Kelly Wigglesworth

Hard to say, as there weren’t really any twists in the game to favor anyone.  Kelly was talked about multiple times about being voted out, but never was.  She basically skirted along, and only had to beat a 70-year-old man in an endurance challenge to get to the end.  Otherwise, she would’ve been as forgetful as most of the other players this season.


Australian Outback, Unlucky: Michael Skupin

Was there any question?  My unluckiest contestants will often be those medically evacuated, if there were any.  I think his evacuation was the reason Kucha fell apart after the merge.  Had their tribe not lost him, they might’ve had the numbers advantage and picked off the Ogakor members one by one.  And Michael could’ve won the game if that happened.  Michael would later make it to the end in a future season, proving he was capable of getting that far.


Australian Outback, Lucky: Tina Wesson

Colby very easily could have (and should have) taken Keith to the end instead of Tina.  Also, Tina very easily could have been voted off because she was a bit of a liability in challenges, but her Ogakor tribe got the advantage in numbers after the merge, and she scooted on after that.  And then, to have Colby not fight for himself much in the final tribal council; hard to argue Tina didn’t get lucky.  She certainly did.


Africa, Unlucky: Lindsay Richter

She got eliminated because of Survivor’s old tiebreaker which was previous votes.  Thank goodness they did away with that.  But she was the last person to be voted out as a result of that tiebreaker, and who knows how far she could have gone if the tiebreaker was changed before Africa.  She wasn’t necessarily in a great position to get far, but who knows?  


Africa, Lucky: Kim Johnson

Kim was close to being an early boot because she struggled in the early challenges.  Once her body (sort of) adapted, she did a bit better.  She scooted on by and then the three guys Ethan, Tom, and Lex, had to turn on each other once she won the final 4 and 3 immunities.  And those two immunity challenges favored Kim, especially the Final 4 one.  She got to the end without much scheming.


Marquesas, Unlucky: Paschal English

No question it’s Paschal, as he was the first person ever to be eliminated on a rock draw.  And the only person to have it happen in the final four.  In future seasons, they would have gone to a firemaking challenge at the final four (now it’s automatic).  I think Paschal would have won that firemaking challenge.  I don’t think he would’ve won the final immunity challenge, but I think Neleh would have taken him because they were so close.  So Paschal was very close to potentially winning the game, and an unlucky draw of the purple rock may have cost him a million dollars.


Marquesas, Lucky: Vecepia Towery

She was on the wrong side of the numbers, but she got taken to the end, anyway.  She was never seen as a threat to win, although she should have been.  Rarely do people on the wrong side of the numbers get to the end, but when they do and win, that’s pretty darn lucky of them, in my opinion.


Thailand, Unlucky: Jake Billingsley

Honestly, this could have gone to any member of the old Sook Jai tribe.  They got screwed by a late merge and went into the merge down in numbers as a result.  I picked Jake because he was the last member of Sook Jai left standing.  They originally started out in the season dominating, but lost too many immunities late.  Jake might’ve won if they had the numbers at the merge.


Thailand, Lucky: Brian Heidik

The only reason I can think of for Brian being lucky is that Brian was put on a tribe with a bunch of players who couldn’t take control of the game.  He lucked out by being on the right side of the numbers, post-merge, and then lucked out by having easy to manipulate tribemates.  He was also lucky because none of his tribemates banded together to get rid of him.  Honestly, a lot of players in Survivor history put in his position would have won the game, too.


The Amazon, Unlucky: Ryan Aiken

Sometimes I pick the first boot because of how the game starts, and Ryan sure drew the short straw in this one.  Daniel was the one who cost the men the first immunity challenge, but ultimately Ryan paid the price.  That first immunity challenge was one they should have won, but Daniel couldn’t balance and kept falling off.  Ryan could’ve been a big player in this game had he been given a chance.


The Amazon, Lucky: Jenna Morasca

She was never a dominant force in challenges, and easily could have been picked off.  She also was lucky that Rob didn’t win Final 3 immunity, and went to the finals with a scrub like Matthew.  And she was a bit lucky that Heidi went home instead of her at final 5, because those two were interchangeable, according to the Survivors that season.


Pearl Islands, Unlucky: Andrew Savage

The Morgan tribe was one of the worst tribes I’ve ever seen.  They sucked.  And Andrew was one of their only competitors and their leader.  He had a good chance of going far and perhaps winning if his tribe doesn’t suck at challenges.  Watching him struggle to keep his team’s spirits up was definitely hard to watch.  He was unlucky to be paired with a bunch of losers, most notably a quitter in Osten.


Pearl Islands, Lucky: Lillian Morris

Being put back in the game after being voted out is pretty darn lucky if you ask me.  Lil ended up making it all the way to the end and almost won, even though she had previously been voted out.  Of course, her luckiest moment was when her fellow outcasts voted her back into the game.


All-Stars, Unlucky: Lex van den Berghe

Rob screwed over Lex big time.  Lex saved Amber for Rob, only to have Rob break his word with him and send him home.  Lex was a huge player in the game and Rob knew it.  I honestly feel if Rob wasn’t in the game to screw Lex over, Lex would have won.  Lex was a very good social and strategic player in both of his seasons.


All-Stars, Lucky: Amber Brkich

Amber was saved by Lex when she very easily could have been voted out.  She then formed a bond and relationship with Rob and was lucky to have him in the game.  I think Amber would agree she was very lucky this season in more ways than one.


Vanuatu, Unlucky: Brook Geraghty

This is the second time I have picked a first boot, but Brook got screwed by the fact his tribe had more older or out of shape men than they had young, fit men.  Not only that, but he was the one the “Fat Five” picked to go home first.  Unlucky.


Vanuatu, Lucky: Chris Daugherty

The girls easily could have banded together to get him out as he was the last man standing, but they decided to fight amongst each other, instead.  Chris also survived the first vote in which he could’ve gone after struggling in the first immunity challenge.  


Palau, Unlucky: Jonathan Libby

I was so tempted to pick Steph or Bobby Jon, but they had their chances.  Jonathan did not.  He and Wanda were picked by their tribes as first boots without even really getting a chance in the game.  Jonathan really could’ve gone far in the game, but Wanda was annoying others so she didn’t have much of a chance, regardless of the twist.


Palau, Lucky: Katie Gallagher

Katie was pretty awful in challenges, and if her tribe wasn’t as dominant as they were, she would’ve been a semi-early boot.  She also went to the end because Ian bowed out, when we know the final two should’ve been Ian and Tom.  


Guatemala, Unlucky: Brian Corridan

The second (and so far, most recent) guy named Brian to play Survivor, Brian Corridan got screwed by a tribe switch.  He was playing a really good social and strategic game, but ultimately got blindsided.  Many saw him as a Rob Cesternino-type player (but more likable), but he never got the chance to prove himself.


Guatemala, Lucky: Danni Boatwright

Danni was on her own after Gary got voted out yet somehow made it to the end and won the game. She won the final immunity and in a way lucked out in Rafe telling her she didn’t have to take him.  So she didn’t, took Steph instead, and won the game.


Panama, Unlucky: Tina Scheer

They divide the tribes by gender and age, and predictably the older women lose.  Tina was by far their best player and provider, but the other three just didn’t want to play with her.  Had she been put on a normal tribe, she could’ve done really well in this game.  On a semi-related note, Tina’s also been unlucky with her personal life as she lost her son unexpectedly before her season. :(  


Panama, Lucky: Aras Baskauskas

Aras wasn’t ever really a huge strategic or social player.  He lucked out in Cirie losing to Danielle at the fire-making challenge, because if Cirie won, he’d have been forced to take her to the end (if he won F3 immunity), because otherwise he would’ve looked bad for breaking his alliance with Cirie.  The only way Aras wins from Final 4 on is going against Danielle in Final 2, and that’s exactly what happened.  He would’ve lost to Cirie or Terry.


Cook Islands, Unlucky: Jenny Guzon-Bae

I think she’s the only contestant to ever be screwed over by a surprise double elimination tribal council.  That’s not really fair, as you go into tribal you’re thinking you only have to survive that one particular vote.  Then, Jeff springs on you that you’re voting again?!  Not exactly fair.  Doesn’t give people (in this case, Jenny) a chance to scramble and save themselves.


Cook Islands, Lucky: Yul Kwon

He was able to align with the biggest challenge threat (maybe ever) in Ozzy, but the main reason he was lucky was in finding the idol (he was lucky at the timing of going to Exile Island), and having a Super Idol that could be played after the votes.  And he lucked out in Penner picking his side, because if he hadn’t, Yul would not have made it to the end and won. 


Fiji, Unlucky: Anthony Robinson

Anyone on the original Ravu tribe could be put here, as they had to live with less food and a much worse shelter in one of Survivor’s worst twists ever.  However, Anthony was constantly picked on, most notably by Rocky.  If he had been on the other tribe or if he could’ve survived the merge he could've gone far, maybe making an alliance with Earl, who he got along with.


Fiji, Lucky: Earl Cole

Earl did indeed start out on the bad Ravu tribe, but the tribe switch happened and he went to the better tribe.  He was able to coast along then, and people just wanted to be on his side so he was able to coast until the end.  He also lucked out that Dreamz went back on his word to Yau-Man, because otherwise Yau-Man beats Earl in the final.


China, Unlucky: Aaron Reisberger

Aaron got one of the biggest shafts from producers all time.  The tribes were allowed to pick two players from the other tribe to join their tribe.  Then, the other players on Aaron’s new tribe exploited this twist by throwing the immunity challenge and voting him out, since he was considered a threat.  Sure, Todd probably would have backstabbed him at some point if not for that twist, but it would’ve been interesting to see how far Aaron could have gotten had he not been screwed over by the tribe switch.


China, Lucky: Todd Herzog

Todd lucked out by being on the better tribe at challenges, because otherwise he probably would’ve been an early boot.  Being a scheming player that’s not particularly good at challenges is a bad combination, at least on a bad tribe.  He was also lucky that none of his alliance members turned on him when they should have, and they easily could have switched over to Peih-Gee and/or Erik and taken him out.


Micronesia, Unlucky: Jonathan Penner

Penner was unlucky mostly because he had to leave because of an injury to his leg.  It killed him inside to leave, but he had no choice.  He was also unlucky at challenges, often voicing his displeasure to Jeff.  


Micronesia, Lucky: Natalie Bolton

Natalie was never that great of a player until the Black Widow Brigade formed.  She hardly had any spotlight until then.  She then lucked out in Erik giving her his immunity necklace.  She also was lucky Parvati approached her and Alexis to form an alliance, and lucked out in that Alexis was picked off before her.


Gabon, Unlucky: Ace Gordon

Ace was another player screwed over by a tribe switch.  He not only was screwed over by that, but was screwed over by who he thought was his closest ally in Sugar.  Ace was definitely seen as a threat, but how would he have fared had he made the merge?  We’ll never know.


Gabon, Lucky: Sugar Kiper

Sugar lucked out in being on the dominant Kota tribe at the beginning, and then was able to scoot by on Fang after the tribe switch, even though she was a liability at challenges.  She made it to the end by scooting by and never being a target.  And, in my opinion, she was actually lucky to go to exile island so many times, because after finding the idol she was able to use it as a place to relax under a roof and get food.


Tocantins, Unlucky: Joe Dowdle

Another player that was medically evacuated was Joe.  He wasn’t a huge threat in any way, but that’s why he could have made it really far.  His exile alliance with Erinn could’ve helped propel him to final 5 or 4 or even 3.


Tocantins, Lucky: J.T. Thomas

J.T. lucked out first by his alliance finding an idol (but not him directly).  He also lucked out because the opposing Timbira tribe was fractured and turned on each other.  If they were a solid whole, J.T. would have been the first boot after the merge, as he was a known threat.


Samoa, Unlucky: Russell Swan

Poor guy was playing his heart out and it cost him.  His tribe was absolutely dominating, and if he had made the merge, there’s no way his old Galu tribe would have crumbled the way they did.  Sure, he probably would’ve been picked off before the finals for being a threat to win, but he certainly would have had a shot.


Samoa, Lucky: Natalie White

Natalie lucked out in being the last remaining girl on Foa Foa.  She could have gone when girls like Marisa and Ashley did, but she didn’t.  She also lucked out when Eric basically convinced the jury to vote for her.  And in hindsight, it’s pretty lucky to be taken under the wing of one Russell Hantz, as he protects those in his alliance well and is unable to beat them in the finals.


Heroes vs. Villains, Unlucky: Stephanie LaGrossa

Boy, I feel so bad for Stephanie.  She is such a fierce competitor, and she got caught on the wrong side of the numbers on a Heroes tribe in the midst of losing a bunch.  I think she might’ve been a force post-merge and perhaps may have stopped J.T. from giving his idol to Russell.  At the very least, I think she could have taken Colby’s place as the last remaining Hero.  Hey, Colby was the last member of his alliance, and Steph very well could have been in his spot. 


Heroes vs. Villains, Lucky: Sandra Diaz-Twine

Sandra was lucky the merge wasn’t prolonged because otherwise she was a goner.  She also was lucky that the Villains were more focused on the Heroes than her (and Danielle for one vote).  She lost her alliance before the merge, yet made it all the way to the end and won, mainly because the mostly Heroes jury favored anyone that had nothing to do with Russell, which was Sandra.


Nicaragua, Unlucky: Tyrone Davis

It was pretty hard to pick out someone who was unlucky, but if that’s ever the case, I just look to the tribe switch or any other twist and see who immediately got voted out.  That would be Tyrone, who not only gets screwed by the tribe switch but by his long time tribemate Holly.  He kind of dug his own grave by being too bossy and eating too much chicken, but the tribe switch still really hurt him.


Nicaragua, Lucky: Fabio Birza

Fabio could have been an early vote off because of his clashing with NaOnka, who had a tight alliance.  Then, after NaOnka and Purple Kelly quit, it was down to him and Benry as to who was the next to go, and the majority chose Benry, deeming him a bigger threat.  Fabio lucked out in not being chosen there.  Then he lucks out with immunity challenges he can beat Chase and Sash at, and gets all the way to the end.  To top it off, he wins by one vote.  That’s pretty darn lucky if you ask me.  


Redemption Island, Unlucky: Russell Hantz

His luck finally ran out.  He was put on a tribe so determined to get him out that they threw the challenge.  Russell usually could control his tribemates in seasons past, but not this time.  I think if he had instead been put on the Ometepe tribe, he would’ve been able to control the girls and Grant (Just like Rob did), and he could’ve either controlled Phillip or gotten him voted out early.  Then, to top it off, he went to Redemption Island where he had to face off against Matt who won all but one dual out there.    


Redemption Island, Lucky: Phillip Sheppard

Phillip is darn lucky that he wasn’t an early boot.  He quarrelled with the girls on his tribe, Rob (on occasion), and almost every member of the former Zapatera tribe once they merged.  With how he acted, he was lucky he had Rob to protect him.  Most players in control would have gotten so tired of him that they would’ve taken him out well before Final 3.  Phillip even lucked out by getting a vote at the Final Tribal Council to make him the runner up and not Natalie.  


South Pacific, Unlucky: Keith Tollefson

I could really choose any of the former Savaii tribe for this, but I chose Keith because he was the first to go.  He and the rest of his Savaii alliance got screwed by Cochran, when a 1-10 rock draw really wouldn’t have been a terrible idea.  Then, Ozzie plays his idol, not for his closest ally in Keith, but for Whitney.  Keith then gets voted out by the former Upolu plus Cochran.  To top it off, Keith had to go against Ozzie in a duel.  In the prior season, you only had to either not be last or first out (for endurance challenges).  But they changed it that you had to win and beat everyone to stay alive.  Otherwise, Keith might have had a shot.  At least he was lucky in the end, meeting his future wife on this season, Whitney.


South Pacific, Lucky: Brandon Hantz

Brandon is so lucky the rest of the former Upolu tribe didn’t turn on him earlier.  He was the very definition of a loose cannon.  He also could not keep his mouth shut.  Like Phillip in the previous season, his only redeeming quality was his loyalty.  But we have seen on other occasions where players were voted out for being too disruptive or talkative, despite being in the stronger alliance.  Brandon is also lucky he wasn’t targeted almost immediately after he revealed himself to be Russell Hantz’s nephew.  


One World, Unlucky: Jonas Otsuji

My first thought was to pick Monica, as she was an obvious choice being the first boot after a tribe switch.  However, she was on the outs on the women’s tribe anyway and probably wouldn’t have made it far regardless.  However, Jonas kinda got screwed.  He gets put on the worst tribe after the switch, then after they merge, he gets targeted despite him providing food and not upsetting anyone (other than Tarzan).  Now Colton and Courtney were medically evacuated, but Courtney idiotically didn’t listen to Jeff’s directions for the challenge, and we later found out in Blood vs. Water that Colton basically feigned an appendicitis to get out of the game.  To me, Jonas was the unlucky one.  Also, they should have brought him back for a future season.  


One World, Lucky: Sabrina Thompson

I really could have picked any of the girls that made it to the final three, but I feel like Sabrina was lucky to make it there, having been talked about by others as a possible boot a few times.  She also luckily got a few votes at the final tribal.  She was lucky to find the idol (although not lucky that she couldn’t use it), but she was also lucky to not have a target on her back for giving an idol to Colton.  Sabrina wasn’t a very memorable player and to get runner up was pretty lucky of her.  


Philippines, Unlucky: Malcolm Freberg

Not only does Malcolm get put on one of the worst tribes in Survivor history, but that final four challenge was the one challenge he could have lost, given he had an advantage going in.  Looking at the final immunity challenges throughout the show’s history, Malcolm beats everyone at all of them (with an advantage) except that particular one.  It’s almost as if the show knew about his shaky hands and wanted to prevent him from getting to the final 3.  That’s probably not the case, but like Ozzy in South Pacific, he got jipped at the final immunity challenge, costing him the million dollars.  


Philippines, Lucky: Abi-Maria Gomes

For the first time, my lucky player did not make it further than my unlucky player.  Abi was one of the most intolerable contestants of all time, and unlike the case with Phillip Shephard, it was not an act.  She could have gone when Pete or Artis did.  Then, when she was rumored to be the next to go, she wins an advantage for immunity at the auction, and of course the last part of the immunity challenge, untying knots, is something Abi can do.  Then, she lucks out by the foursome alliance realizing Carter is a threat, so they take him out over her.  She made it way further than she should have.  


Caramoan,  Unlucky: Matt Bischoff

Yet again, a good person screwed over by a twist/tribe switch.  In this case, it was both in the form of a surprise tribe switch.  Matt was unlucky by ending up on the tribe easily worse in physical strength, and then he got unlucky by being the one of the three fans that the favorites chose to vote off.  Matt was a very amenable and likable guy, willing to work with the favorites on his tribe come merge time, but he just drew the short straw.  He also in a way was unlucky in that Corinne pulled for Michael over him, simply because Michael is gay.  Had he been another straight guy (Eddie or Reynold), they would have voted them out over Matt.  Tough break.


Caramoan, Lucky: Sherry Biethman

Sherry wasn’t particularly lucky in her “Fans” tribe sucking at challenges or the fact that a close ally of hers, Shamar, had to leave the game.  But the tribe switch greatly benefited her.  She got put on the superior tribe, which kept her safe.  Had she been on the other tribe (instead of say, Julia), she would have definitely been one of the two vote-offs before the merge.  Then, her name comes up after the merge, but the favorites decide to turn on Corinne for her scheming.  Then Sherry basically gets dragged to the end as a “goat”.  She definitely lucked into third place.  


Blood vs. Water, Unlucky: Katie Collins

Hard to not pick someone who lost at the rock draw.  Katie was obviously unlucky when she drew the white rock.  She was also unlucky being on the worst tribe at the beginning, but that was because she was a loved one and not a returning player.  She did sort of luck out in being the first to play with their loved one, but yet again she was unlucky after the tribe switch in the fact that again she was on the worse tribe, challenge-wise.  She didn’t get a duel at redemption island that favored her skill set and was beaten by her own mother.  Unlucky.


Blood vs. Water, Lucky: Gervase Peterson

Gervase was lucky because he was always protected by someone or an alliance or by being on the better tribe.  He struggled big time in the first challenge, yet his tribe still ended up pulling it out.  Had they not come back and lost, he was a very likely first boot.  He then was protected by Tyson, as they were not only always on the same tribe, but the best tribe.  After the merge, Tyson continued to protect him.  He was also lucky when Tyson didn’t draw the white rock, as that would have meant Gervase was going next.  There was a reason Gervase didn’t get a single vote at the final tribal council.  


Cagayan, Unlucky: Spencer Bledsoe

I won’t argue Spencer had the highest percentage of bad luck as he did find an idol, he made it to final 4, and he survived a few votes where he was in trouble.  But he had the most amount of bad luck in the game.  First, he is put on the worst tribe, and he demonstrated himself to be the only intelligent player on his tribe.  He has to fight his way tooth and nail through the merge and after it.  At the auction, he and Tony drew rocks to determine who would get the clue to an idol, and of course, Spencer lost.  I also think if he had won the final four immunity, in which he was very close to doing so, he would have also won final three immunity and therefore the game.  If Kass’s husband had not been at the final four immunity, she would have struggled even more on her pole than she did, and Spencer would have won that challenge.  That close.  


Cagayan, Lucky: Woo Huang

For starters, Woo was put on the best tribe.  He survived his alliance members Cliff and Lindsey leaving.  He was definitely on the outs at that point, but a timely tribe swap helped him.  He then was still on the outs a bit after the merge, but Tony pulled him under his wing.  Tony easily could have considered Woo a threat and taken him out around the time he took out LJ or Sarah.  Woo then won the final immunity over Kass by less than a second (according to Jeff Probst).  He had the opportunity to win the game with a lot of luck involved, but unfortunately did not make the choice on who to bring to the end which would have won him a million dollars.


San Juan Del Sur, Unlucky: Kelley Wentworth

It was hard to pick someone for this, but I’m going with Kelley Wentworth.  She did start out on the better tribe with a solid alliance, but after the tribe swap she was put on the worst tribe with her dad as her only alliance member.  She and her dad were against Baylor and Missy, and Jon sided with Baylor and Missy, eliminating her.  It was also unlucky that her father couldn’t make it another vote further, as he was next to go.  As we later saw in future seasons, Kelley is a legit all-around good player and could have done very well in this season, but was never really given a chance.  


San Juan Del Sur, Lucky: Natalie Anderson

Losing your loved one early in a BVW season is actually a blessing in disguise.  Each winner of BVW has used losing their loved one as motivation to win the game.  Anyway, Natalie was put on the better of the two tribes and remained there after the switch.  She did lose her closest ally, Jeremy, and she was next on the chopping block but she was then forgotten about.  She also found an idol with Baylor that she got to use instead of her.  When she “mistakenly” wrote down Alec’s name, her alliance members believed her that she had made a mistake.  She’s lucky they weren’t smarter to realize she was playing them.  She then was lucky Jacqueline, Missy, and Keith didn’t realize she was the biggest strategic threat.  Natalie played well, but she also required a bit of luck to skirt on by and win the season.


Worlds Apart, Unlucky: Max Dawson

Max was a good-all around player that got screwed by a tribe switch.  Sure, he was a bit annoying to the other players, but most considered Shirin more annoying, yet they sent Max home first.  Max may have been safe from the tribal council he got voted out at if he wasn’t stung by a jellyfish.  Because he was unfortunately stung by a jellyfish, he had to soak his feet in hot water, which disgusted the tribe and was a contributing factor to them voting him out.  Who knows how far Max gets if he doesn’t get stung by a jellyfish.  


Worlds Apart, Lucky: Will Sims

Will wasn’t lucky to be on the No Collar Tribe, which in challenges was the worst of the “Collars”.  But he was lucky to survive multiple votes despite struggling in challenges.  He also wasn’t very loyal to the remaining No Collars, which he proved after the merge.  He lucked into an alliance with Rodney and others.  He berated Shirin, which would have resulted in most people getting voted out, but not Will.  He made it all the way to the end, and even got to tie for second place with Carolyn, despite her playing a clearly superior game.  Will should have been an early vote out, but ended up lucking his way into a tie for 2nd.  


Cambodia: Second Chance, Unlucky: Peih-Gee Law

Peih-Gee was screwed by the game non-stop.  She got put on the weaker tribe in challenges, and she got put with a player very hard to get along with in Abi-Maria.  There is a tribe swap in the third episode which could have reversed Peih-Gee’s fortunes, but they only made it worse.  She got put with Abi-Maria on the new tribe that had to assemble a new shelter.  Their tribe was screwed by this twist because while other tribes could forage or fish for food (or rest), they had to work to build a shelter.  They predictably lost the immunity challenge, and unfortunately Peih-Gee’s foursome couldn’t stay strong together.  Abi-Maria being harder to work with should have been the target, but Varner, Savage, and Tasha decided to go with Abi and vote out Peih-Gee, who in my opinion never had a chance.  


Cambodia (Second Chance), Lucky: Kelly Wentworth

Kelley never did a ton to ingratiate herself into an alliance or even “voting blocks” as they mentioned many times this season.  She was commonly mentioned as someone that could be voted out.  She luckily found an idol clue which led to an idol at a challenge.  Then the luckiest moment of the season for anyone happened to her when an idol clue was attached to her medal as part of the reward challenge.  She even remarked at how lucky she was.  These clues also said exactly where the idols were.  She lucked out when most of the tribe went out to the water, and then Abi went to the hammock.  She lucked out in finding it before everyone came back.  She earned F5 immunity, but to get to 4th place and never really having many true alliance members is pretty lucky if you ask me.


Kaoh Rong, Unlucky: Neal Gottlieb

There were quite a few unlucky players this season.  There was also Caleb and Joe who were also medically evacuated.  There was Anna who was screwed by the tribe swap.  There even were all the Brawn members who got screwed by being on a crappy tribe (and none making it to the finals).  I picked Neal, not only for his medical evacuation (an infection on his leg), but for the remove a juror twist.  Neal made it far enough in the game to at least have a say in who wins the game.  He didn’t even get voted out and then Michele picks him to be removed from the jury.  So Neal made it fairly far, didn’t even get voted out, and didn’t get a say in who won.  Let’s not forget he had a hidden immunity idol, so he had a decent shot of getting very far if not for his infection/medevac.  


Kaoh Rong, Lucky: Michele Fitzgerald

Michele said at the final tribal council that she didn’t rely upon luck to get where she was, but luck did play a huge part.  She (and Nick) didn’t go to Tribal for the first 22 days thanks to always being on a superior tribe in challenges.  She never had a very strong alliance all game, yet was rarely the target.  She also lucked out in the remove a juror twist, as well as there not being a final 2.  With the final 4 vote out happening on Day 37, it looked like there might be a final 2.  If there was a final 2 and Michele doesn’t win immunity, she is more than likely the target for either Tai or Aubry. 


Millennials vs. Gen X, Unlucky: Jessica Lewis

Like I’ve said before, hard to go against someone who gets eliminated via a rock draw.  It was also a rock draw with the most amount of people left in the game in Survivor history, so Jessica only got to 10th.  Not only that, but she fell one day shy of the loved one’s visit.  Ouch.  She did get lucky with David saving her with his idol before the merge (because otherwise she’s a goner), but who knows how far she could have gone had she not drawn the black rock.  


Millennials vs. Gen X, Lucky: Hannah Shapiro

This girl flip-flopped and yet made it all the way to the end.  She panicked and showed anxiety, yet her tribe never targeted her for being a weak player.  She generally was in a tribe that did well on challenges (despite her not being the reason they won).  She was on the Ikabula tribe that won all but one challenge.  She then went back from Zeke to Adam to David to Ken, not really sticking with any one person, yet no one targeted her.  She would have been picked off in a lot of other seasons.


Game Changers, Unlucky: Sandra Diaz-Twine

Seems weird for me to say this, but we know Sandra’s one of the best players in Survivor history.  She took out Tony and she took out J.T.  She was not in a bad spot… until the tribe swap happened.  After the tribe swap, she was in the minority with Jeff Varner as her only ally.  She didn’t stand much of a chance.  If she had not been screwed by the swap, she may have been taken to the end, as many people were considering it since they thought no one would give her a third sole Survivor title (and third million dollars).  And she may have just won yet again.  


Game Changers, Lucky: Troyzan Robertson

Hard to pick a “lucky” player this season.  Troy was just a non-entity in this season.  He did find an idol, but that literally was his only highlight.  He hid in Culpepper’s shadow the rest of the season, and he’s lucky he wasn’t targeted one of those times Culpepper won immunity.  If you get to the end without doing much, while you probably will not win, you will often get my lucky player of the season.  


Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers, Unlucky: Devon Pinto

It’s weird to say someone who got 4th is unlucky, but I think Devon wins HHH if he has a semblance of luck.  We can’t forget the “This is not an advantage moment” when his vote was blocked pretty early on, costing him to lose a possible ally in Alan.  But the unluckiest part of all is the automatic fire-making that no one in the final 4 knew about until they got to 4, and Devon had to face off against Ben and lost.  Chrissy and Ryan absolutely would have voted Ben out, but the game almost seemed to be rigged in Ben’s favor.  If the game goes by the old rules, Devon almost assuredly wins.  


Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers, Lucky: Ben Driebergen

We know from above why Ben is the luckiest player this season.  He found three straight idols as well.  He must have lucked out in finding the idol that was in their camp, because he obviously got lucky in having time to find it without anyone seeing him.  He didn’t win a single individual immunity challenge, yet relied on idols and the fire-making twist to get to the end.


Ghost Island, Unlucky: Michael Yerger

Michael was a player.  He fought hard, found two idols, and had to fight to get through every vote.  He was by bad fortune put on the awful Malolo tribe, which lost a huge majority of challenges.  He was the only player in the game to never leave the Malolo tribe, an unlucky distinction in and of itself.  He would later draw the short straw when he gets put on a temporary “tribe” of five with Wendell, Dominick, Laurel and Kellyn, with Laurel the only original Malolo, but she was close to Wendell and Dom.  Michael literally had no shot after that and was promptly voted out.  If they ever bring him back, we’ll see how well he could have done with a bit more luck.


Ghost Island, Lucky: Donathan Hurley

Donathan did get put on Malolo at first, but then was quickly swapped away from it, unlike Michael.  He became a huge social and strategic threat, but wasn’t targeted for the longest time.  He even spat off at Dominick at one tribal, yet survived that vote.  Many thought he would’ve been an easy early vote due to his lack of challenge prowess, but he just slithered on by each vote.  He also went on a lot of rewards, most notably with his aunt.  


David vs. Goliath, Unlucky: Bi Nguyen

Who knows how far Bi would have gotten if she hadn’t hurt her knee.  She technically goes down as a “quitter”, but she had to look out for her career in which she needs to protect her knees.  She also lost a close ally in Jessica early and didn’t really get to enjoy an immunity win.  She was relied upon in the hero role on the David tribe (Alec on the Goliaths), and I think she gets pretty darn far being a solid UTR player had she stayed healthy.  


David vs. Goliath: Lucky: Nick Wilson

Nick certainly relied on luck to get through his season.  He was the target of the very first vote until Pat hurt himself on the boat ride back from a challenge.  If not for that accident, there’s a good chance Nick is voted out first.  Then, Nick was on a pretty bad tribe after the swap, yet survived each vote until the merge.  He then avoided being the target of the vote until the end.  He and the Davids got outnumbered by the Goliaths after the merge, yet they refused to band together to get to an all Goliath final three.  Although, Nick winning immunities certainly helped. 


Edge of Extinction, Unlucky: Lauren O’Connell

She was put on the one of the worst tribes in Survivor history, for one.  Also, she seemed to go the longest of anyone without any good food.  She found a very-well played fake idol made by Devens, which is unlucky as most Survivor players would think there’s a chance it was real.  She even speculated that it might not be.  I feel like if Lauren had been on the Kama tribe she could have dominated this game.  Instead, she was basically the only good challenge player on Manu (after they voted Chris out).   


Edge of Extinction, Lucky: Chris Underwood

From 3rd voted out to winner.  How lucky can you get?  He won the challenge to get back in, which wasn’t luck based but he was lucky Joe’s 2nd ball fell (lol).  He lucked out in Devens giving him back the second half of his idol, because if he hadn’t, Chris was gone.  He won final immunity fortunately for him, because if Devens won that challenge he wins the game.  


Island of the Idols, Unlucky: Lauren Beck

This was a hard one to choose, mainly because anyone who went home pretty much deserved it.  Lauren played a really good game, similar to Tommy’s, and I’m still to this day surprised Noura took Tommy to the end.  Tommy is the only player to be taken to the end at the final four (when there’s a firemaking challenge) and win.  If Lauren had been taken to the end, there’s a good chance she beats Noura, and if Dean beats Tommy at firemaking, I think Lauren wins it all.  Close, but no cigar.


Island of the Idols, Lucky: Karishma Patel

How many votes did she survive?  A crazy amount, that’s what.  Karishma set the record for most votes received during a single season.  And unless there’s a significant rule change, she will probably hold that record forever.  Many players called her insufferable and hard to work with, yet she made it all the way to 8th.


Winners at War, Unlucky: Ben Driebergen

Why Ben?  Mainly because he was never given the opportunity for any advantages, nor was he ever given fire tokens.  The guy had to work for everything he earned.  I’m not sure if it was strategy or not, but him telling Sarah she could vote for him cost him the game.  His tribes also often went to tribal council as they often struggled in challenges.  


Winners at War, Lucky: Natalie Anderson

The luckiest player in Survivor history?  Perhaps.  She gets voted out first.  On the Edge, she finds multiple advantages and fire tokens, sometimes by luck.  She gets back in the game, and she finds another idol.  She gets to the very end of the game despite being voted out first.  She’s so lucky that the Edge of Extinction was in play this season, otherwise she would have been just an afterthought.



Saturday, December 12, 2020

Why the Seahawks Won't Make Anything of Their 2020 Season

After the Seahawks week 13 loss to the New York "Football" Giants, I was pretty darn upset.  Just ask Amanda.  The Seahawks lost by a score of 17-12 in a game they definitely should have won.  It was their first home loss of the season, and their first loss to an opponent with a losing record.  The reason I was so upset is because it has made the path to the Super Bowl so much harder for the Seahawks.  I will explain.

The Seahawks have made the playoffs every year except for one in the past eight seasons.  However, the Seahawks have not made it to the conference championship game nor won consecutive playoff games since the 2014-15 season.  That's six years of being a lower tier playoff team.  And honestly, I'm not content with that anymore.  We have absolute stars at quarterback, linebacker, safety, and one in the making at wide receiver.  We need to take advantage of this while we can.

Obviously, the season is not over.  Anything can happen.  If the Hawks win their last four games, they will win the NFC West and clinch at least the #3 seed, with a slim chance at an even higher seeding.  But I'm a realist, and I'm not expecting that to happen.  

The most likely scenario is the Seahawks will lose to either Washington, the Rams, or the 49ers.  (Don't even get me started on the Jets).  All three of those teams boast pretty good defenses.  And right now, our offense is struggling to get back on track.  The Rams, the Seahawks' biggest competition for the division, have a pretty easy remaining schedule, with games against the Jets and struggling Cardinals remaining, as well as facing the Hawks and Patriots.  If the Hawks lose once (especially if it's against the Rams), the odds of winning a division title aren't great.

We've seen what happens to the Seahawks when they don't win a division title.  They might win a wild card game.  Even if they do, they don't make it past the divisional round.  They always fall apart in the road playoff game against a superior opponent, whether it be Green Bay, Dallas, Atlanta, or Carolina.

That's the worst case scenario.  The best case scenario is the Hawks win out and go into the playoffs on a four game winning streak.  That most likely still results in only a #3 seed.  Green Bay is the Hawks competition for the #2 spot, and their only real tough game remaining is against Tennessee.  So even if the Packers lose that game, they still maintain a better conference record than the Seahawks and win the tiebreaker.

So as a #3 seed, the Hawks would face the #6 seed.  Possibly Tampa Bay or the Rams.  A win there is not guaranteed, but for the sake of argument, let's say the Hawks win.  And assuming the #2 seed wins, the Hawks would then travel to them.  Oh wait, that's Green Bay.  We saw what happened last year.  It was close, but the Hawks still lost.  And I think Green Bay in their second year under Matt LeFleur is even better this year.  They won't finish with a better record than last season, but their point differential of +80 is already better than their +63 point differential of last season.  Assuming they don't completely fall apart to end the year, this Green Bay team is better than last year's team.

The point I'm making is that it would take a near miraculous run for the Hawks to do anything of note this season.  And by "of note", I mean get further than they have the past five seasons.  Unless they get a lot of help, it would take the Hawks winning their last four games, plus a home playoff game against a tough opponent PLUS a road playoff game, probably against the Packers, to do better this season than last.  And based on recent history, why should we expect anything different?

That loss to the Giants has made it very hard for the Seahawks to get the #1 seed and even hard to get the #2 seed.  Those are the only seeds guaranteed at least two home playoff games (if you win the first).  We know the Hawks play better at home, and to ask them to win on the road in January is a monumental task.  

I will say this: The Hawks have the leaders in place to pull off the miraculous.  They have Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, and head coach Pete Carroll.  They've all "been there, done that."  They know what it takes in January.  If I had to pick a potential #3 seed or lower to make a run to the Super Bowl, I'd pick the Hawks.  But in the past decade or so, 90+% of the Super Bowl teams have been #1 or 2 seeds.

It's doable, but I'm not going to hold my breath.  If the Hawks end up even getting to the NFC Championship Game, please call me out and I will apologize and say how wrong I was.  But I don't see that happening.  

Saturday, November 28, 2020

My NFL Team Tiers

 Way back in the day, I ranked NFL teams from 1 to 32 on how much I like them.  I thought about doing an updated list, but I realized it makes more sense just to group teams together based on what I think of them.  So, I grouped them into as few tiers as I could, which is 7.  I'll explain my rationale as to why each team is in each tier.  I'll also rank the tiers from favorite group to least favorite.  Generally, teams in a higher tier I will like more than teams in a lower tier, but not always.  

1. My all-time #1 favorite team and always will be:
Seattle Seahawks

Being from the Seattle area and being the son of a huge Seahawks fan since their inception, I will always be a Seahawks fan, and they will always be #1 in my heart.  I'll always be a 12, and I'll always bleed blue and green.

2. The Lovable Losers Tier
Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars
Detroit Lions
Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans

I could probably count the number of playoff wins in the past 15-20 years between all these teams on one hand.  The teams in this tier tend to lose more than they win, and I have a soft spot for them.  Being a fan of a lovable loser in baseball (The Mariners), I can relate to fans of these teams.  Whenever these teams have a rare bit of success, I tend to root for them.  The Browns, Bills, and Texans have had recent "success", but who knows how long it will last for each of them.

3. The Lovable Winners Tier
Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints

I tried to get more teams in this tier, but I couldn't.  I also couldn't put either of them anywhere else.  Unless either of these teams beat my Seahawks bad in the playoffs, I don't see me disliking them anytime soon.  The Chiefs have great fans and with Patrick Mahomes, they should be fun to watch for a long time.  And I've had a soft spot for the Saints since they had to deal with Hurricane Katrina.  Drew Brees may be retiring soon, which may cause me to move them to another tier.

4. The "At Least You're Usually Entertaining to Watch" Tier
Dallas Cowboys
Las Vegas Raiders
Baltimore Ravens
Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons

I don't really care either way if these teams win or lose, but for the most part the NFL is better when these teams win, because they are usually entertaining teams to watch.  The Cowboys are "America's Team" and have a huge fanbase.  The Raiders have the Black Hole and are one of the NFL's most storied franchises.  The Ravens either have an exciting offense, dominating defense, or both.  The Eagles are always well coached and are usually a good-all around team.  And the Falcons usually have a high-flying offense, whether it be through the air or ground.

5. The Has Beens
Denver Broncos
Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts
Chicago Bears
Miami Dolphins

These are all teams that I used to like more than I do now.  None are having quite the success they used to.  Denver in the late 90's was when I first liked them, and I even (sort of) rooted for them in the early 2010's, except of course when they played my Hawks.  The Vikings in the early 2000's were fun to watch with Culpepper, Moss, and Carter.  The Bucs in the early 2000's had an amazing defense.  The Colts with Peyton Manning were always fun to watch.  The Bears had a dominating defense in the mid 2000's, and the Dolphins in the late 90's (and even for a brief period in the mid 2000s) were pretty good.

6. The "You Suck and I Don't Have Sympathy for You" Tier
Arizona Cardinals
Washington Football Team
Cincinnati Bengals
New York Giants
New York Jets
Los Angeles Chargers

This is like the lovable losers, except I don't have sympathy for when these teams lose.  Arizona's in the Seahawk's division, so no further explanation needed there.  Washington has a terrible owner.  Cincinnati just has never appealed to me.  The two New York teams are questionably run at best at the top, and the Chargers shouldn't have moved from San Diego.  

7. The "I Love to Watch You Lose Even If It's Rare" Tier
Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers
Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots

My most hated tier.  The teams that (despite my wishes) still usually have success.  I can't even really explain why I dislike the Titans, except perhaps that my Hawks usually lose to them.  The Panthers have been a "rival" of the Hawks for a while, plus I have no reason to root for them.  The Packers have been a rival for the Hawks as well, beating us a few times.  The Rams and Niners should be self-explanatory.  The Steelers beat the Hawks in Super Bowl XL, and the Patriots beat the Hawks in Super Bowl XLIX.  I will never forgive those two teams for that.  

I can see some changes happening.  If Buffalo has long term success with Josh Allen, they could move to the Lovable Winners tier.  I could see some of the Has Beens moving up to another tier if they become more exciting to watch or have more success.  But this is how I feel right now, and I'm sticking to it.

Saturday, November 21, 2020

2020's Highs and Lows

Boy, 2020 has been some year.  Most would consider it one of the worst years in recent memory, and I can't argue with them.  However, this year isn't without some positive things happening, which I will get into.  Some are personal to me, some aren't.  But this has certainly been a year I will remember for a long time.  

Let's get the bad out of the way first: COVID-19.  You knew I was going to mention it.  It has put such a damper on the things we usually enjoy in life.  The family barbecues, going to sporting events, flying to see relatives, a lot of that most of us cannot enjoy at the moment.  These are the things we live for.  The things we work 40 hour work weeks for.  Instead, we are forced to sequester at home and find other joys in life.  

COVID-19 has impacted me both positively and negatively.  I did really want to go to a Mariners game and/or a Seahawks game (at least one) this year.  I wanted to take Amanda to her first Seahawks game since 2011.  I moved this year (closer to my grandparents) and I did want to make an effort to see them more often, but I haven't been able to as they fear catching COVID-19 (and I fear possibly passing it to them).  I don't mind spending a lot of time at home finding ways to keep myself occupied/entertained; I usually do that anyway.  

But as I said, COVID-19 has had a positive impact on me.  Because of the pandemic, I got a new (and better) job.  My old job wasn't the best fit, I wasn't making enough, and I didn't really enjoy it.  They put me "on standby" in March, which is like a suspension, but without the employee doing anything wrong.  I then went on unemployment while I waited for them to possibly take me back.  I also used this time to look at other jobs.  I slowly and ultimately got to a point where I realized I wanted to use this opportunity to change jobs.  I eventually found one in August and I have loved it ever since.  I enjoy it so much more, I feel more useful/needed, and I get paid more.  It beats my previous job in every way.  Even the commute from my current residence is better.  

Like I mentioned, I moved this year.  Amanda and I are now on our own just the two of us.  I really like our new apartment and the complex.  We moved right as COVID restrictions were getting put in place.  Unfortunately thanks to COVID, we are not able to enjoy the luxurious amenities this complex has.  I did use the gym a bit when they opened it for a short time, but it certainly was short-lived as they closed it not long after.

One last good thing that happened--I need to mention it: We will be getting a new president.  Thank the lord.  Donald Trump has never been fit to be president, and boy is he just an awful human being.  He is now refusing to concede the election (pathetic), but regardless, we will be getting a new president in 2021 in Joe Biden.  I don't want to get into politics too much in this post, but I know this is a reason for optimism next year for so many people, myself included.

On a more personal level, I really wanted to lose weight this year.  Like I mentioned earlier, I made an effort to go to our apartment complex's gym when it was open.  I have tried eating healthier, but it's been tough.  Now that the holidays are basically here, I might have to focus on losing weight for 2021.  I have a few ideas in mind that may help.  But I'm no skinnier now than I was at the start of 2020.  I'm going to work hard to change that for 2021.

Honestly, 2020 hasn't been too bad for me personally.  I've lost out on a few things I would want to do (including going to the movies), but I got a newer better job, I still managed to move during the pandemic, and we will be getting a new president.  I don't mind having to wear a mask in any situation.  And no one else should mind, either.

But I am really hoping 2021 is an improvement.  Hopefully we can eradicate this disease and be able to do all the things we live for again.  I don't think our country can take another year of this.  I could, but I'd hate to see what happens if this pandemic doesn't at least start going away next year.  I will continue at my current job for the foreseeable future as I have no complaints about it.  For the first time in a while, I am really looking forward to the following year.  In my opinion, 2021 can't get here fast enough.  To anyone reading this, let's work hard to make 2021 the opposite of 2020.  Wear your mask, socially distance yourself, and be nice to others (even if they're the other political party).  Thank you.

Saturday, October 31, 2020

How to be a good boss

I started a new job just over two months ago, and boy is it a good fit for me.  I work a regular Monday to Friday schedule, and I am doing things I love doing (working on a computer, with numbers, working on my own).  But I'd be lying if I said one of the best things about my job wasn't my boss, Joe.  He's awesome.  He is exactly as a boss should be.  He's only six years older than me, so we can relate on a few things.  But it's his managerial style which I think a lot of bosses could learn from.  I'm going to say what I think makes a good boss, providing examples from Joe.

- Make yourself approachable to your employees and welcome their questions and feedback
I cannot stress this enough.  At my last job, it was definitely hard to approach my bosses and ask them questions.  But Joe welcomes questions.  Almost on a daily basis Joe says to ask him questions if we're stuck or need help.  I'm not the best at asking for help (I'd prefer to figure things out on my own if possible), but he's made it much easier to ask for help.  Bosses should never scold or get annoyed with their employees if they ask a question.  It's how we learn, get better, and do our job more satisfactorily.  

- Know when to put your foot down
So, you want to be nice and everything, but you have to know when to put your foot down.  You have to still earn and get respect from your employees.  One of my coworkers wasn't doing something right, sort of fibbed to Joe, and Joe put him in his place.  Joe was very clear about what he expects of him.  If you lay down the law in front of your employees just one time, that should be lasting enough for them to respect their boss for a long time.

- Treat your employees for doing a good job
Probably my favorite thing my boss does is he treats us when we do a good job.  He's treated us to lunch a few times, and he's given us things for our desks.  Bosses treating their employees for doing a good job encourages them to continue to do a good job.  He also often offers a word of encouragement when we do a good job as well.  Those little comments go a long way, especially when they're sincere.  

- Make sure your employees are comfortable with their working conditions
My boss is very aware of if we are uncomfortable with any aspect of our working conditions.  He has said to me on numerous occasions that if there's anything I need I should ask or tell him.  I know not every boss has the time for this, but if you provide an avenue, portal, or any way for your employees to reach out to you, that can be hugely beneficial to the workplace.  It could be an email, a bulletin notice, or anything little like that.  But my boss Joe lets us know in person.  It helps we have such a small office.  

- Lead by example
You can't expect your employees to do a good job if you don't do a good job as their boss.  There's also little things you do--how organized you keep your workspace, how you handle customers/clients, and how you treat other employees.  A lot of inexperienced/younger employees look to their boss on how to act and carry themselves.  My boss Joe does a great job of carrying himself and leading by example.  I'll say he doesn't always dress the most professionally (wears flip flops, for example), but we don't ever meet clients in person, so it doesn't matter.  I could probably wear flip flops if I wanted to, but I'd rather set my own example.  

- Enjoy your work so that your employees will too
If you've progressed through a field far enough to have employees underneath you, you probably like the field you're in.  And when a boss enjoys their work, it really becomes contagious.  I can tell Joe really likes his job and is passionate about it, and he makes me want to be passionate about my own job.  I know this ties in a lot to the one above, but I thought it deserved it's own mention.  

Well, that's all I have.  Mainly, my advice to any bosses out there is to treat your employees the way you would want to be treated.  Put yourself in your employees' shoes and act like how you'd want your boss to act.  It will go a long way.  And, happy employees often make for success in business.  It's win-win.  

Monday, September 7, 2020

2020 NFL Predictions

The MLB season is only in it's third month, but the NFL season is less than a week away.  Seems weird.  That's what happens when a global pandemic postpones or cancels different sporting leagues.  

I usually do fairly well with these predictions, so I will continue, going division by division, giving each team a predicted Win/Loss record.  I'll predict the playoffs under the new seven team per conference playoff format, and then some predicted award winners.

I usually go game by game for the Seahawks, but I'm usually way off.  The Hawks will no doubt win some games I predict them to lose, and they will lose a game or two (at least) that I predict them to win.  Instead, I will just talk about the team briefly and what I expect from each position group.  

So without further ado, the NFL win/loss record predictions:

* = Wild Card

AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills, 10-6
3. Miami Dolphins, 9-7*
3. New England Patriots, 7-9
4. New York Jets, 6-10

Summary: For the first time since 2000, Tom Brady does not enter the season as the Patriots starting quarterback.  This is a huge opportunity for anyone else to claim the division, and with Buffalo being a 2019 playoff team, they have the best opportunity.  I think they will be solid, if unspectacular.  The Dolphins surprise a lot of people and make the playoffs, riding a win streak after switching to Tua at QB.  The Patriots aren't awful, but they are a far cry from the team that won the Super Bowl a few years ago.  That leaves the Jets as the odd man out.  Sam Darnold does decently, but the defense falls apart and Adam Gase is fired.  

AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens, 14-2
2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-6*
3. Cleveland Browns, 9-7*
4. Cincinnati Bengals, 3-13

Summary: The Ravens enter as clear favorites.  Can Lamar repeat his 2019 regular season success?  Odds are yes.  The Steelers, being a (mostly) veteran team and getting their veteran QB back, return to the playoffs and play solid ball.  The Browns barely make the playoffs, but only because the rest of the AFC is trash. The Bengals tread water but realize they like Burrow; it's just they need to get him help.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts, 11-5
2. Houston Texans, 8-8
3. Tennessee Titans, 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1-15

Summary: Probably the weakest division in the AFC (again).  The Colts, with new QB Philip Rivers, claim the title.  The Texans struggle a bit without many offensive weapons.  The Titans realize they shouldn't have handed Ryan Tannehill that contract.  The Jaguars, meanwhile, struggle mightily but are a fun watch with Gardner Minshew, and they win their first game in week 17 against a Colts team whose playoff position is settled at that point.  

AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 12-4
2. Denver Broncos, 8-8
3. Oakland Raiders, 8-8
4. Los Angeles Chargers, 6-10

Summary: This might be the most surprising division I've predicted.  The Chiefs are still clear front-runners, although as defending champs they will be the target of many.  The Broncos aren't able to really make a statement as injuries and opt-outs hurt them.  The Raiders have an up and down season and they are still left with many questions (Is Carr the future?).  The Chargers bad luck rears its ugly head again (they've lost Derwin James to injury already again), and Tyrod Taylor is unable to do anything to right their sinking ship.  Justin Herbert is given the reigns in the later part of the season.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles, 9-7
2. Dallas Cowboys, 7-9
3. Washington Football Team, 6-10
4. New York Giants, 4-12

Summary: The worst division in football again.  The Eagles struggle with injuries and inconsistency again, but are decent enough to win the division.  The Cowboys are fun to watch for the most part, but are clearly missing their once dominant O-Line.  Washington is surprisingly good defensively, with Chase Young breaking Jevon Kearse's rookie sacks record.  The Giants aren't awful, but Daniel Jones has a set back and the Giants start to wonder if he's the future.

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers, 11-5
2. Minnesota Vikings, 9-7*
3. Chicago Bears, 7-9
4. Detroit Lions, 7-9

Summary: Hell hath no fury like an Aaron Rodgers scorned.  The Packers as a whole aren't quite as good, but Aaron Rodgers clearly carries them to a few wins, as drafting a possible successor is enough to light a fire under him.  The Vikings keep pace all year but fall a tad short.  The Bears and Lions show flashes, but it's still not enough.  

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints, 13-3
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 10-6*
3. Atlanta Falcons, 6-10
4. Carolina Panthers, 6-10

Summary: The Saints prosper in times of uncertainty, so why not now?  The Bucs with Tom Brady are fun to watch, but lose some games they probably should have won.  The Falcons struggle with the Todd Gurley experiment, and the Panthers aren't awful in Matt Rhule's first year as coach.  

NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers, 11-5
2. Seattle Seahawks, 10-6*
3. Arizona Cardinals, 8-8
4. Los Angeles Rams, 8-8

Summary: In the NFL's most well-rounded division, the 49ers come out on top again.  They prove they are clearly too well-built to be a one-year wonder.  The Seahawks, meanwhile, fall one game short of the division title (again) as they lose in week 17 to those 49ers.  The Cardinals have some bright moments and surprise some teams, while the Rams falter down the stretch and are left scratching their heads.  

Before we get to the playoffs, what happens before the playoffs every year?  Oh yeah, "Black Monday".  The day many coaches get fired.  These are the following coaches I think will be fired by season's end:

Adam Gase, Jets
Doug Marrone, Jaguars
Matt Patricia, Lions
Dan Quinn, Falcons

And one coach resigns/retires...

Bill Belichick, Patriots

That's it.  Usually it's closer to half a dozen, but I feel the rest of the coaches are either a possible future hall of famer (Reid, Carroll, Harbaugh), will have or recently had success, or will be given more time to turn things around (any coaches hired this offseason, Taylor).  But yes, Bill Belichick retires after this season, not wanting to go through a rebuild.

Now the NFL seedings:

AFC
1. Ravens, 14-2
2. Chiefs, 12-4
3. Colts, 11-5
4. Bills, 10-6
5. Steelers, 10-6
6. Dolphins, 9-7
7. Browns, 9-7

NFC
1. Saints, 13-3
2. 49ers, 11-5
3. Packers, 11-5
4. Eagles, 9-7
5. Seahawks, 10-6
6. Buccaneers, 10-6
7. Vikings, 9-7

AFC Wild Card Round
(7) Browns at (2) Chiefs: Chiefs win
Would be a very high-scoring and exciting game, but the Chiefs come out on top, predictably.  The Browns aren't good enough in the back end of their defense to stop Mr. Mahomes.

(6) Dolphins at (3) Colts: Colts win
In a battle of a veteran against a rookie, the veteran usually wins in the playoffs.  That remains the case.  Colts advance.

(5) Steelers at (4) Bills: Steelers win
The Steelers beat the young Bills to prevent them from their first playoff win in 25 years.

NFC Wild Card Round
(7) Vikings at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
In a rematch of last year's divisional round game, the 49ers win again, although perhaps not quite as easily.  

(6) Buccaneers at (3) Packers: Packers win
Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady in the playoffs, does it get better than that?  Rodgers prevails as Brady's old bones can't handle Lambeau's cold.  

(5) Seahawks at (4) Eagles: Seahawks win
Yet another rematch from last year (and at the same locale as well).  The Hawks prevail again, this time with a healthy Carson Wentz under center all game.  Russ goes off, hitting DK and Tyler for long bombs.  

AFC Divisional Round
(5) Steelers at (1) Ravens: Ravens win
Lamar Jackson finally gets his first playoff win in his third try.  The Ravens entire team is too much for the team from Pittsburgh.

(3) Colts at (2) Chiefs: Chiefs win
The Chiefs are too much for the Colts, but it's fairly close.

NFC Divisional Round
(5) Seahawks at (1) Saints: Saints win
Will there even be a crowd (and therefore crowd noise) in this instance?  Either way, I think the Saints beat the Hawks.  I can't remember the last time the Hawks won a playoff game in a dome (if ever).  

(3) Packers at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
The 49ers prove too much for the Packers yet again.  I think this would be a closer contest, but the same result as last year's NFC Conference Championship matchup.

AFC Championship Game
(2) Chiefs (1) Ravens: Ravens win
The Ravens take control early by harassing Patrick Mahomes and claim their first AFC Championship since 2012.

NFC Championship Game
(2) 49ers at (1) Saints: Saints win
Think of last year's matchup between these two teams in the regular season.  Exciting like that, except this time it's in the Saints' favor.  The Saints return to the big dance.  

Super Bowl LV
Ravens vs. Saints: Saints win
In a fantastic matchup, the Saints prevail, giving Drew Brees one more Super Bowl ring before he retires.  He rides off into the sunset a happy man.  

Well, if my Seahawks couldn't win it all, I'd be happy for the Saints and Drew Brees.  Now some award predictions:

MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Offensive PotY: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Defensive PotY: Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers
Offensive RotY: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Defensive RotY: Chase Young, Washington Football Team
Coach of the Year: Sean Payton


Seahawks: 

Well, I know they've made moves to try to reclaim the NFC division title (trading for Jamal Adams), but the 49ers are just going to be a tough hurdle to get over.  Plus, the line play will prevent the Hawks from soaring to heights or even establishing any kind of long winning streak.  Position by position though, here's what I think:

Quarterback - Russ will be magical once again.  He will have to be decisive and quick in his decision-making, and sometimes he won't be.  He'll be in the talks for MVP yet again, but without winning the division it will be difficult to even get votes.

Running back - Can Carson stay healthy all year?  Will we see Rashaad Penny at all?  How will Carlos Hyde be?  All those questions will be answered, and I think we'll get a mixed bag.  Carson will probably do another 1,000 yards or close to.  Deejay Dallas may even see some time and surprise, prompting for us to probably move on from Penny.

Wide Receiver - This may be the best receiving corps we've had in my time watching the Hawks.  We all know about Lockett.  DK should take a giant step forward this year, and hopefully he can hold on to the ball a bit better.  Dorsett should be like a flashier Jaron Brown.  Will we get Josh Gordon back?  Even if we do, he probably won't have a huge impact.

Tight End - This is an interesting group.  As long as either Dissly or Olsen are healthy, we should be fine, although preferably both remain healthy.  Hollister will make a good #3 or 2 if need be.  

Offensive Line - It will be interesting to see.  Can Duane Brown hold up still at his age?  Time will tell, but he might miss some games I feel.  I've never really liked Ethan Pocic, and I think he'll struggle.  Damien Lewis will be interesting to watch as he's a rookie.  As long as this line isn't god awful, the Hawks should be fine.

Defensive Line - Can they get some pressure on the quarterback this year, please?  I don't care who.  It sucks that another rookie lineman is again injured (Taylor), but hopefully Collier proves why we drafted him so high.  I just want the D-Line to be adequate, that's all.

Linebacker - Man what a loaded unit.  This group is so stacked Shaquem Griffin had to go to the practice squad.  Jordyn Brooks will hopefully get some time to shine.  Will Cody Barton get some time as well?  We shall see.

Defensive Backs - My what a stacked unit they've become.  Will Dunbar be able to start all year?  Hopefully.  And Jamal Adams... well I bet his impact will be felt quickly.  Can't forget about Diggs or Griffin, two very capable players. 

Special Teams: Jason Myers, don't miss gimmie field goals.  Mike Dickson, don't shank any punts.  Cover teams, don't allow any return touchdowns.  That's all I ask.  Thanks.

Well, that is it for my 2020 predictions!  Hopefully the Hawks exceed my predictions for them.  If the line play is decent and the rest of the units play to their potential, there's a shot the Hawks could get the division and a top seed.  Should be fun to watch (despite no fans, at least for now).