Saturday, September 4, 2021

2021 NFL Predictions! (With basements and ceilings)

The 2021 NFL season is almost upon us, and I thought I'd make my NFL Predictions differently this year.  I usually go division by division, predicting the W-L record of each team.  Instead, I'll go team by team, giving them a ceiling (best they could do) and a basement (worst they could do).  To figure out about my W-L prediction for them, generally, go somewhere in the middle.  I'll try not to have too large a gap between the ceiling and the basement, setting my max at five games.  And in case anyone has forgotten, this is the first season with seventeen games; therefore, we will have some odd W-L records.  Finally, some teams may finish lower than their basement if they lose their starting quarterback (or have multiple significant injuries) for a substantial amount of time; I went with each starting quarterback staying relatively healthy.


Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 6-11
Comment: In a tough division, 11 wins may seem like a stretch, but if one or two teams in the NFC West struggle, then the Cardinals could take advantage of that opportunity.  Alternatively, they could struggle to beat division foes if everyone else is playing decent football.

Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: I figure the Falcons' offense should be enough to carry them to a few wins.  The loss of Julio Jones is offset by drafting Kyle Pitts.  Their defense will be the difference between a 2nd place finish and possibly last place.  I may be more optimistic than most people with the Falcons, but I like the pairing of Arthur Smith and Matt Ryan.  If he can revive Ryan Tannehill's career, think of what he could do with the better arm of Matt Ryan.

Baltimore Ravens
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 9-8
Comment: The Ravens are almost guaranteed a winning record with their talent and dynamic QB, Lamar Jackson, and balanced roster.  How high they fly will be determined by how well they do against the Browns and Steelers.  They got a good shot at winning their division, but they will have to hold off the talented Browns and always competitive Steelers.

Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 14-3
Basement: 10-7
Comment: The Bills are now one of the top-notch teams in the AFC.  They will be able to beat up on the Jets and take AT LEAST one game from each of the Patriots and the Dolphins.  However, I see them tripping up throughout the season a few times.  Their team is still a bit young, but they also remind me of that Chiefs team that lost the AFC Championship Game, but then the following season won the Super Bowl.

Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 9-8
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Panthers will be a scrappy bunch and certainly have some talent, but not enough to challenge Tampa Bay for the division (yet).  Their success will largely depend on how well Sam Darnold adjusts to playing in Carolina and if Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy.  Can Matt Rhule and Sam Darnold become a great coach/QB duo? Time will tell.

Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: If the Bears finish around their basement or lower, Matt Nagy and Ryan Grigson will have to find new jobs.  But I do not think they will.  A switch to Justin Fields could ignite the offense and team, similar to what we saw in San Francisco when they transitioned to Kaepernick in 2011.  They could win the NFC North, or they could plummet and wonder if they will ever find a franchise quarterback.

Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Even if Joe Burrow stays healthy all year, there's too much competition in their division AND conference.  And I could still see them struggling quite a bit, but I think they have enough talent to win a small handful of games, even if they lose Burrow again.  Let's hope Burrow can stay healthy all year to prove what he is capable of accomplishing.

Cleveland Browns
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Browns are a fickle bunch.  They could continue their rise, fall flat on their face (because let's face it, they're the Browns), or they could be somewhere in-between.  I think they will be somewhere in-between and grab a wild card spot (again).  

Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: These records are if Dak stays relatively healthy all season.  They have the most talent easily in the NFC East, and in my opinion, should win it this year.  If he struggles to stay healthy or the Cowboys struggle to handle their division, they may lose it again.

Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 8-9
Basement: 3-14
Comment: For the Broncos to get close to eight wins, they would need Teddy Two-Gloves to play his best football since Minnesota and make good connections with Jerry Jeudy and the rest of the receivers.  Or he could get hurt, Drew Lock struggles with a lack of confidence, and the Broncos get a top 5 pick.

Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 2-15
Comment: For the Lions to approach their ceiling, they will need another NFC North team to collapse.  Each of those three expects to sweep Detroit.  But it could happen.  Or, new coach Dan Campbell's message could get old fast, and the Lions become the worst team in the NFC.  

Green Bay Packers
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Aaron Rodgers drama will either affect them a little or a lot.  If it's a little, they will remain division champs and again get a top seed.  If it's a lot, they may lose the division title or maybe a playoff spot altogether.  They have a very talented roster, but Aaron certainly carries them at times.  The Packers currently have a situation where if one bad thing happens, it could lead to a chain reaction of bad things happening, ultimately derailing their entire season.

Houston Texans
Ceiling: 4-13
Basement: 0-17
Comment: It is not very often we see a team come into the season with such low expectations.  The Texans were terrible last year, and somehow they got even worse.  Their coaching hire of David Culley was incredibly uninspired, and who knows if and when Deshaun Watson will play.  When your basement is literally zero wins, you know you're in trouble.

Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Colts' two injuries to two of their most important players makes them hard to predict.  If the injuries don't last too long, they should remain competitive, but I see a ceiling of about 12 wins for them.  On the other hand, they could succumb to the injuries, but there is no way they lose more than ten games if that.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Trevor Lawrence should immediately give them a boost.  Also, the Texans being as awful as they are, should give the Jags one, probably two easy wins.  They do play a last-place schedule, which helps.  However, they lost running back Travis Etienne for the year, and their offensive line does not look good, so I do not expect much from them.  Even if Trevor Lawrence is a football god, there's no way they get to .500 or better.

Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 15-2
Basement: 10-7
Comment: The Chiefs are a borderline dynasty.  If they win the AFC conference championship again, I would argue they are a dynasty.  Even if Mahomes gets a little banged up as he did two years ago, they should still reach double-digit wins.  They are just too talented and too well-coached not to get there.

Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Raiders have some talented players, but I would bet on them finishing with seven wins or fewer if I was betting on them.  They rely a bit too much on Josh Jacobs and Derek Carr, and if either misses significant time, they are SOL.  Jon Gruden doesn't seem to be able to turn this team around.  They may compete or fall flat on their face.  

Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: It is tough to see the Chargers doing worse than seven wins if Herbert stays healthy after they rebuilt their offensive line.  Herbert set rookie records last year with one of the worst offensive lines in football.  New coach Brandon Staley shouldn't face too much challenge, and I bet the Chargers can reach second place.

Los Angeles Rams
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Rams made a significant change at the quarterback position, acquiring former Lions signal-caller Matthew Stafford.  I feel there will be a learning curve, and Stafford will be marginally better than Goff if it all.  They should contend for a wild card spot at the very least, but a division title does not seem as easy as everyone else is predicting.

Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Fins gave Tua some more weapons and help, and he should at least be halfway decent.  They could be as good as a top wild card seed or missing out on the playoffs because the offense cannot come together.  The Bills seem to remain the superior team for the time being.

Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 6-11
Comment: I feel for Mike Zimmer.  His QB refuses to vaccinate.  The Vikings never show enough to escape the middle of the NFC North.  They remind me of the Mariners of the mid-2010s: never awful, some exciting players, but never good enough to do anything of note.  They may surprise and win ten games, or they may suck and lose eleven.  I think it will be somewhere in-between.

New England Patriots
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: We cannot forget that New England is a well-coached, well-run team.  They have an excellent offensive line, and Mac Jones in his rookie season should have a decent amount of success.  They may compete with or even surpass Miami for second place in the division.

New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Saints still have Sean Payton as their head coach, even if Drew Brees retired.  They won't be awful, but they sure will not feel like the same Saints of old.  We'll have to see how they do with Jameis Winston, but I'm guessing he might struggle against some of the more formidable NFC teams.

New York Giants
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: Even if everything goes right, I do not see the Giants taking the league by storm.  The problem is, I do not see everything going right.  The Giants seem like a fragile team that cannot handle even one bad thing going wrong, such as losing Saquon Barkley to injury.  I do like Joe Judge, but a midwest-type team may better suit him.

New York Jets
Ceiling: 6-11
Basement: 2-15
Comment: The Jets, like the Jaguars, are undergoing a slow rebuild.  They could not even lose enough to get the number one overall pick last season.  However, with Zach Wilson, they should be at least a tad better.  If they win close to six games, they should consider it an improvement and a start.

Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 8-9
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Many are predicting the Eagles to be awful, citing their uninspired coaching hire and lack of quality moves in the offseason.  I initially thought they'd be halfway decent, but they will undoubtedly have to undergo a rebuild.  If Jalen Hurts can carry them a la Deshaun Watson with the Texans, they might get 6, 7, or maybe even 8 wins.  But it's more likely they will hit double-digit losses and close to a top-five pick in next year's draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Steelers have somehow never had a losing season in the 14 seasons under Mike Tomlin.  Bill Cowher cannot say the same; he had three losing seasons.  But all good things must come to an end, right?  However, I feel like whenever I or anyone else counts the Steelers out, they have a surprisingly good season.  Therefore, I'm not exactly sure what to expect.  

San Francisco 49ers
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: Last year was a disaster for the 49ers following their Super Bowl loss.  They hope to stay healthier this year.  With an impending QB change looming, how will that affect the team?  I know a lot of 49er players love Jimmy Garoppolo (George Kittle being one).  The 49ers are the one team that could be a Super Bowl contender if everything comes together, or they could have a repeat of last season.  They will be slightly better than last season, but they will have some speed bumps due to not having consistency at QB.

Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 9-8
Comment: The Hawks have never had a losing record in the Russell Wilson era, and it's tough to see that ending this season.  The overall consistency between the offense and the defense will make or break this season for the Hawks.  Can they be at their best at the same time?  If they can, the Hawks should win the division and get a top seed.  If not, they may be battling the Rams or 49ers for the division and may even lose it.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 15-2
Basement: 11-6
Comment: The defending Super Bowl champs return all 22 starters, unheard of in today's NFL.  They should be able to avoid the adjustment period they underwent in the first half of last season.  However, opposing teams will circle them on their schedules, resulting in getting the best from their opposition every week.  They won't go undefeated, but I'd be shocked if they didn't have the division wrapped up by mid-December.  

Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Titans are fortunate to play in a reasonably easy division.  Their success will largely be determined by how well they beat up their division foes.  They'll be in decent shape if they can sweep Houston and Jacksonville and take at least one from Indy.  I'm not counting on huge things from Tennessee this season, even with the addition of Julio Jones.  They will likely be a borderline playoff team.

Washington Football Team
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: WFT somehow won the division last year despite having very inconsistent quarterback play.  They were lucky to arguably have the best defensive line in the entire NFL last season.  And it should remain at least one of the best.  They could challenge for the division crown, but they will need a quarterback, Fitzpatrick or Heinicke, to step up and do enough necessary to win.

Now let's predict the playoffs:
AFC Seedings
1) Kansas City
2) Buffalo
3) Baltimore
4) Indianapolis
5) Tennessee
6) Cleveland
7) New England

NFC Seedings
1) Tampa Bay
2) Seattle
3) Green Bay
4) Dallas
5) Los Angeles Rams
6) San Francisco
7) Chicago

AFC Wild Card Round
(7) New England at (2) Buffalo: Buffalo wins
(6) Cleveland at (3) Baltimore: Cleveland wins
(5) Tennessee at (4) Indianapolis: Tennessee wins

NFC Wild Card Round
(7) Chicago at (2) Seattle: Seattle wins
(6) San Francisco at (3) Green Bay: San Francisco wins
(5) Los Angeles Rams at (4) Dallas: Los Angeles Rams win

AFC Divisional Round
(6) Cleveland at (1) Kansas City: Kansas City wins
(5) Tennessee at (2) Buffalo: Buffalo wins

NFC Divisional Round
(6) San Francisco at (1) Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins
(5) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Seattle: Seattle wins

Conference Championships
AFC: Buffalo at Kansas City: Buffalo wins
NFC: Seattle at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins

Super Bowl LVI: Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins

Award winners:
MVP: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay
OPOY: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
DPOY: TJ Watt, Pittsburgh
OROY: Justin Fields, Chicago
DROY: Micah Parsons, Dallas
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay
Comeback player of the year: Dak Prescott, Dallas

Coaches Fired:
Vic Fangio, Denver
David Culley, Houston
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona
Jon Gruden, Las Vegas

I'll try to come back and see how many of the 32 teams I correctly called their ceiling and basement, making sure to point out any teams that fell outside the range.  See you then!

Monday, May 31, 2021

My Dream Survivor Returnee Season

Being such a huge fan of the TV series, Survivor, I have developed a certain liking for some players.  One of the things I love most about Survivor is that they have returning player seasons.  There's been All-Stars, Fans vs. Favorites (twice), Heroes vs. Villains, Game Changers, and Second Chance.  

I'm just going to compile a list of 20 Survivors I most want to see play again.  I am sort of taking into consideration the likeliness of them ever playing again, but not entirely.  This is my dream cast, and I know a majority of these players will never play again.  There's some on this list that literally have either said they'll never play again or that production just would never bring back.  But hey, it's my dream cast, so I'll put in here who I want.

Anyway, I cast 10 men and 10 women, and divided them up into two tribes.  Some have played the game only once, some have played two or even three times.  I did my best to divide up the tribes evenly and so that players from the same season were not on the same tribe.  Here they are, in the order of their first season:

Tribe 1
Theresa "T-Bird" Cooper, Africa
It's a huge shame T-Bird has not been back yet.  She was on the Second Chance ballot but just missed out.  Is she still young enough to play?  I'd like to think so.  She's still active in the Survivor community.  Bring T-Bird back!

Heidi Hamels, Amazon
Formerly Heidi Strobel, Heidi Hamels would be a very interesting returnee, I think.  She's married (to former MLB pitcher Cole Hamels) with kids, but she keeps in good shape, as can be seen in her social media posts.  I'd love to see how much she's grown from her first season.  

Terry Dietz, Panama/Exile Island and Second Chance
Terry did get his second chance, but it was cut short.  It's such a shame.  It seemed like he was adjusting fairly well to the modern game.  I would love to see Dietz get a legit second chance.  But it would have to be soon, before he gets too old.

Earl Cole, Fiji
I decided to cast two total winners, one for each tribe.  I wish Earl had been on Winners at War, but I think he had just had a kid.  He's one of the most well-liked winners of all time, and is one throwaway vote away from playing a perfect game.  How can they not ever bring someone like that back?

Ciera Eastin, Blood vs. Water, Second Chance, Game Changers
But she voted out her mom!  Haha, jokes aside, I'd love to see Ciera get one more chance.  She's unfortunately got the combination of manipulative and not great at challenges, so she's a possible early boot every time (as we saw on Game Changers).  But perhaps she'd ingratiate herself better a fourth time.

Baylor Wilson, San Juan Del Sur
I'd really like to see how Baylor does without her mom.  We've seen Ciera without her mom.  Would Baylor be anywhere near as ruthless?  Not likely, but you never know.  

Carolyn Rivera, Worlds Apart
"Mama C" as she is affectionately called, should definitely return.  She definitely wants to, as heard on the YouTube series Top 100 Survivors of all time.  She could be an early boot, but I think she'd make a fairly quick connection and avoid that.

Jay Byars, Millennials vs. Gen X
Jay made one of the boldest moves (maybe ever) when he blindsided Michaela.  He's willing to take risks, that's for sure.  I'd love to see Jay again.  He's also great for content, as he got fooled with a fake immunity idol.  

Christian Hubicki, David vs. Goliath
Christian is an almost lock to return if he wants to (really doesn't matter the type of returnee season).  He's a fan favorite and his quirkiness and intelligence is great for TV.  

Rick Devens, Edge of Extinction
Yet another lock to return if he wants is Rick Devens.  He makes for such good TV.  Him and Christian possibly interacting would just be *chefs kiss*.  

Tribe 2
Rob Cesternino, Amazon and All-Stars
We unfortunately didn't get to see much of Rob in All-Stars, as he could never gain traction with his original tribe and was an early boot.  I know he'll more than likely never play again, but imagine if he did, and imagine if he and Heidi made the merge or got swapped to the same tribe.  That would certainly be interesting to see.

Ian Rosenberger, Palau
I believe Ian has said he will not play again, but man I'd love to see him back.  He would've been a great addition to Micronesia or Heroes vs. Villains (as a Hero, duh).  Ian's one of my favorite players of all time and seeing him step down from that pole at the Final 3 Immunity of Palau breaks my heart every time.

Michael "Frosti" Zernow, China
Sure, he's not the absolute best character, even from his season, but Frosti is definitely still young enough to play, and I'd love to see how he adapts to the modern game.  He unfortunately got put on the worse "Zhan Hu" tribe in China and could never recover from his tribe's awful challenge performances.

Natalie White, Samoa
Unfortunately, as far as social media presences go for Survivor winners, Natalie's basically vanished and become invisible.  Apparently she's married and settled down, but there's not really any recent pictures of her online anywhere.  I would love to see her play again, outside of Russell Hantz's shadow, to prove she can legitimately play this game.

Marty Piombo, Nicaragua
It's a shame Marty hasn't been brought back yet, and it might be too late.  He should have been for Caramoan, Second Chance, or even Game Changers.  No male cast member from Nicaragua has come back, and it should have been him.  Would love to see him interact with other masterminds in this game.

Kelley Wentworth, San Juan Del Sur, Second Chance, Edge of Extinction
Have we seen the last of Wentworth?  Hmm... hard to say.  But I'd love to see her play one more time.  She's only had a legit shot one time in Second Chance, and she was playing from the bottom.  I think she'd do well on another all-returnee season.  

Michaela Bradshaw, Millennials vs. Gen X and Game Changers
I would love to see Michaela one more time, especially if she were to play on the same season as Jay and possibly get her revenge.  She gives great confessionals and she's great at challenges, too.  

Dominic Abbate, Ghost Island
Dominic is an almost lock to return if he wants to.  His storyline of being one tiebreaking vote away from winning is just too good to pass up.  He might be an early boot for being a strategic threat, but it certainly would be interesting to see.

Gabby Pascuzzi, David vs. Goliath
The Yin to Christian's Yang (or vice versa), Gabby would be an interesting returnee, especially to see her play against Christian, at least at first.  I think she has the ability to be cutthroat if need be, and possibly partner with a Marty or Dominic and do some damage.

Janet Carbin, Island of the Idols
Janet surprised me on IotI by how athletic she is.  She also played a great social game, but perhaps too great.  I could see her sliding by and making tons of connections.  I just would love to see her play again.

Well, there you have it.  My dream cast Survivor season.  I may update this someday if I ever lost interest in someone, or if someone new comes along that I have to see again.  


Sunday, April 4, 2021

My late MLB and Mariners prediction post

It's April 4, we're three games (plus) into the MLB regular season, and I did not do any post about the upcoming season.  Eh, better late than never, right?  Anyway, I'll still make some predictions for the MLB season.  Similarly to how I do my NFL predictions, I'll talk about each division instead of each team.  Afterwards, I'll talk about the Mariners and make some predictions.  Here we go!

* = Wild Card

NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Washington Nationals*
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets

The NL East has got some good teams and it was hard to decide what order to put them.  I think the Braves have some of the best players in Albies, Acuna, and Freeman, plus a pretty good pitching staff.  The Nationals are only a year removed from winning it all and still boast some great players, most notably Juan Soto.  The Phillies are about an average team for me.  The Marlins are slowly getting better from the rebuild.  The Mets... well... are the Mets.  They have Pete Alonso, but I don't think they have many other notable players.

NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates

This might be the division I pay the least attention to.  I had a tough time blindly trying go figure out the order.  I just have a gut feeling the Brewers are about to have a magical season.  The Cardinals just got Nolan Arenado, so they should be improved.  The Cubs still have some decent players, but aren't on the upswing.  The Reds aren't awful, but there's just always too much competition in the NL Central for them.  The Pirates, I know, are rebuilding and have gotten rid of a lot of great players in recent years, most notably Andrew McCutcheon and Garritt Cole.  

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres*
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

The NL West remains a very tough division.  The Dodgers are the most stacked team in all of baseball, and now boast a pitching staff that can compete with anyone's.  The Padres are young and up and coming and will give the Dodgers fits.  The Giants will not be an easy out for most teams as they have a few good, young players plus notable vets like Crawford, Belt, and Posey.  The D-Backs will be decent, but not great.  The Rockies only real good player is Nolan Arenado, who may want out of town, despite signing a contract extension.  

AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays*
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

The Yankees remain a top team and are the favorites to win the division.  The Blue Jays signed George Springer and have a lot of really good young players like Guerrero and Biggio.  The Red Sox are usually at least somewhat competitive.  The Rays and Orioles won't be awful, but won't be that good, either.

AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers

The White Sox are an up and coming team and I think they take a big jump this season.  The Twinkies remain a solid team, but not solid enough to make the playoffs.  The Indians still have some good pieces, but have also lost a few, most notably Trevor Bauer.  The Royals remain below average, and the Tigers are still rebuilding.

AL West
1. Houston Astros
2. Oakland Athletics*
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Texas Rangers

I hate to say it, but the Astros are probably winning the division again.  They lost Springer, but still have a lot of good players.  Let's just hope fans boo and ridicule them.  The A's are always pesky and competitive.  As for my Mariners, I think they surprise people and remain competitive.  But they fall short of the playoffs for the 20th straight season.  The Angels aren't awful, but the Rangers kind of are.


I haven't said yet, but I believe they're going back to the playoff format they had in 2019 (not using the 2020 expanded playoffs), which would be a one-game playoff for the wild card spot.  Anyway, I'll sim the playoffs below real quick.

NL Wild Card: Padres over Nationals
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays over Athletics

NL Divisional Round
Dodgers over Padres in 5 games
Braves over Brewers in 4 games

AL Divisional Round
Yankees over Blue Jays in 4 games
White Sox over Astros in 5 games

NL Championship Series
Dodgers over Braves in 6 games

AL Championship Series
Yankees over White Sox in 5 games

World Series
Dodgers over Yankees in 7 games

The Dodgers repeat as champions, and they beat the Yankees at their own game of spending a lot to assemble a super team.  

Now, onto the Mariners.  I think they'll win somewhere between 75-85 games, with some ups and downs along the way.  They could maybe even break the .500 mark for the first time since 2018.  

I'm just going to predict who I think will lead the team in each category.  Some may surprise you.

Batting average: Ty France
Home Runs: Kyle Lewis
RBI's: Kyle Seager
Stolen Bases: Dylan Moore
Hits: Ty France
Wins: Marco Gonzales
ERA: Marco Gonzales
Saves: Rafael Montero
K's: Yusei Kikuchi

I'm going to tune into Mariners games all summer long to check on the progress of some players.  I'm looking forward to the debuts of some of the youngsters, such as Kelenic and Gilbert, hopefully.  I really do think this team could remain competitive and perhaps in the race going into middle to late September.  Could make for an interesting summer.  Let's hope it is!

Friday, January 8, 2021

My Top 10 Super Bowl LV Matchups

If you read my blog, you know I love doing Top 10 Lists.  This time I will pick my Top 10 Preferred Super Bowl LV Matchups.  The playoffs start tomorrow (as of this post), so I thought I'd pick my Top 10 Super Bowls and give reasoning as to what makes the games fun to watch.  I'll try not to pick the same team too many times (but sometimes I couldn't help it), and I'll try not to be too biased towards the Seahawks.  Some of these won't be likely (at all), but I thought I'd include them nonetheless.  Here they are:


1. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers
This could either be called the rematch of Super Bowl I or the "State Farm" Bowl, as both starting quarterbacks (Mahomes and Rodgers) are often seen in State Farm commercials.  This probably is the Super Bowl matchup that would get the highest ratings.  I also love the contrast between the Chiefs red and the Packers yellow.  Some teams just look good when they play against each other, and Chiefs/Packers is one of them.

2. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is the Super Bowl I honestly want the most, being a Seahawks fan.  Russell Wilson against Patrick Mahomes?  Yes please!  Also, this would be the second Super Bowl for the Hawks against a former AFC West divisional rival.  With the style of both teams play, this game is almost guaranteed to be a close and exciting one to the finish.  One QB in this matchup would pull out a clutch SB victory. 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers
I dislike both of these franchises, but I can't deny this would be a compelling matchup.  My favorite part about this is that it's a rematch of Super Bowl XLV, which would've taken place 10 years and ONE day prior to this game.  And both teams still have the same starting quarterback.  Two of the most storied NFL franchises will always make for a compelling Super Bowl.  

4. Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints
I'm surprised I put this game this high, but this is a game that features two teams very few people dislike.  The Chiefs, Steelers, Packers, and Seahawks all have their haters.  Not too many people hate the Bills and Saints.  Plus, it's a matchup of young (Allen) vs. old (Brees).  Either the Bills get their first Super Bowl, or the Saints and Brees get their 2nd.  It's a win-win for the NFL.

5. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mahomes vs. Brady one last time?  We've been fortunate as NFL fans to witness two absolutely great QB's face off this much.  This would probably be their last matchup against each other (unless they meet in another Super Bowl or Brady plays until age 47).  

6. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
A rematch of Super Bowl XL and a chance for the Seahawks to get revenge.  The only player remaining from Super Bowl XL is Ben Roethlisberger.  Would be interesting to have Super Bowl matchups against the Seahawks at the beginning and end of his career.  The only reason this isn't higher is because I don't want to give the Steelers another chance to beat us.  

7. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Football Team
The only reason for this matchup is to see Patrick Mahomes face off against his former mentor, Alex Smith.  To have a team with a losing record make the Super Bowl would be... well... it would be something.  Also, it would be the (at least at one time) two Native American mascot teams.  

8. Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers
Two small market teams, two teams from cold weather cities, and two teams with very passionate fans.  I'd also like to point out this game would feature the two quarterbacks with the best 2021 seasons.  

9. Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints
Hard not to root for either team.  The Saints have the 2nd oldest QB in the playoffs and the Ravens have the youngest.  The Ravens last Super Bowl win came in the Superdome where the Saints play.  

10. Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears
This might be the least likely Super Bowl to happen.  However, the cities of Cleveland and Chicago have such huge rivalries in MLB (Indians/White Sox or Cubs) and NBA (Cavaliers/Bulls) that this Super Bowl would cement these two cities as ultimate rivals.  They'd be the midwest version of New York/Boston or Bay Area/Los Angeles.  

Hopefully one of these happens.  I'd also be ok with Chiefs/Saints, but I didn't want to include the Chiefs any more than I did.  We'll see come January 24 after the conference championship games.  Can't wait!

Friday, January 1, 2021

Weird Facts About Me

I'm compiling a list of weird facts about myself--Some you may consider unusual, some you may be close to true about yourself as well.  They're mostly trivial, but you be the judge.


- I haven't had a bedroom on the ground floor since I was 10.  Also, my bedroom has always been on the 2nd story since then as well (so no 3rd stories or higher).
My family moved when I was 10 years old, and my bedroom was on the 2nd floor.  After I moved out, I've lived in three different apartments, all of which were 2nd story units.  My apartment numbers have been C205, E203, and 823.  I'd very much like my next place to be on the ground floor.  Ever since I was 10 and I've wanted to get home and crash on my bed, I have to go up a flight of stairs first.
I moved in 2024, and I now have a bedroom on the 3rd floor!  Ah, wrong way!  But our building has an elevator so I don't have to take the stairs to get home if I don't want to.

- Every time I have moved, I have moved further North
I have now moved four times in my life, and each time I did, my place of residence was further north than the last one.  The crazy thing is a couple of those times, they were barely further north.  When I moved at age 10, we moved 3 blocks north (but further east as well).  When I moved in 2017, we moved 2 blocks north.  
Again, we moved in 2024, and for the first time, I did not move North.  I moved South.  I went from Bothell to Woodinville, so not a ton south, but it counts.

- All of my old schools (and my childhood home) have been demolished and rebuilt with something bigger
Sign of the times, I guess.  Before I even turned 30, I could say all of the schools I went to, my elementary school, my junior high school, and my high school, were all demolished and replaced with something bigger.  To add insult to injury, my childhood home that I lived in until I was 10 was demolished and replaced with a much larger home.

- I've left the Pacific Time Zone just once in my life
Only once in my life have I ever had to change the time on my watch because I was in a different time zone, and that was when Amanda and I flew to Hawaii.  I've been to Vegas, many areas of California and Oregon, and even Idaho, but that still is the only time I've ever left the Pacific Time Zone.  I'd like to change that soon. 
In August 2022, I took a trip to Orlando, Florida, so it marked the second time I had left the Pacific time zone.

- Both my grandfathers are named John, and they both are WWII veterans, and both married a  woman with a two-syllable name that ends in "Y".  
This might be a bit of a stretch, as John is a pretty common first name, and a lot of the male population born in the 1910s or 1920s fought in World War II.  But then they married a woman with a first name with two syllables that ends in Y: Shirley and Betty.  

- My paternal grandparents have the same birthday
How many couples do you know that share the same birthday?  I'd guess zero.  My dad's parents share the same birthday, two years apart.  I've always thought that is pretty cool.

- My birthday and my sister's birthday use the exact same numerals.
When written out numerically, my birthday is 117 (January 17th).  When my sister's birthday is written out numerically, it is ALSO 117 (November 7th).  If you don't count zeros, our birthdays are the same when written out numerically.  I realized this only a few years ago, and it sure blew my mind.  

Saturday, December 19, 2020

Survivor Best Players by Season

This is part 3 of 3 of my Survivor posts.

Throughout my rewatch of every season of Survivor, I am picking out who I think played the best overall game that season.  This player isn’t always the person who ended up winning that season, but they often are.  For me, my best player is (if not the best) one of the best at strategizing and doing their best to make sure they were never a target of a vote.  I am looking for solid, all-around players with very few weak spots in their game, so people who were a liability in challenges won’t be on here much, and I considered players more if they were great at challenges.  Basically, based on what I saw, these are the people who I think most deserved the million dollars because I felt they exemplified a true survivor best.  Sometimes that person did not even make it to Day 39 and the Final Tribal Council, due to bad luck, losing the final immunity challenge, a betrayal, or a matter out of their control.  Here they are:

Borneo: Richard Hatch
Survivor was a lot different in its first season, and from what they showed, Rich was the only one who schemed or seemed to plan anything.  Heck, Sean even had his “alphabet strategy” because he didn’t know how else to vote.  Anyway, the producers didn't want Richard to win (instead they wanted Rudy) as Rudy was more likable.  Rich courageously and smartly knew he did not have to win Final 3 immunity as either Kelly or Rudy would take him to the end, so he stepped down and saved his energy.  That’s a ballsy move and one that I have not seen matched since.

Australian Outback: Tina Wesson
I would love to have given this to Colby, but at the final tribal council, it did not sound like Colby wanted to win.  He didn't fight for himself much at all.  I don’t know why he did this, but not having a killer instinct or a strong desire to win will make me not choose someone, and in this case that is Colby.  He was just too honorable to try to make Tina look bad, I guess.  Tina, meanwhile, didn't really get on anyone's bad side, and in a season without a true scheming player, she was able to be the first "nice" player to win.  Keith was close, but he didn’t do enough to justify me picking him over the actual winner, Tina.  Tina was always on the right side of the vote, and once they got Jeff Varner out via a tiebreaker of past votes, they had the numbers advantage and it was smooth sailing for Tina.

Africa: Lex van den Berghe
The first non-winner that was the best player was Lex.  He was easily the biggest challenge threat of the season.  He was such a force in the game that there was a rumor that Kelly had thrown a vote his way (when in fact it was Theresa), and he was able to get Kelly voted out as a result.  His only downfall was the final immunity challenge in which he had a stomach bug that kept him up all night the previous night, costing him immunity, because he physically could not go on further.  But if he had somehow gone to the Final 2 against either Kim or Ethan, he definitely would have won.  Kim knew she had a better shot against Ethan in the Final 2, despite Ethan’s likability.  She knew the jury would’ve respected Lex’s gameplay too much. 

Marquesas: Kathy Vavrick O'Brien
Kathy was definitely the most well-respected player in Marquesas.  Neleh always had Paschal to protect her and Vecepia just scooted by without drawing too much attention to herself or even doing much.  Kathy also was the challenge "beast" of the season, because everyone else was only mediocre.  Just like with Lex, the final immunity challenge cost her.  In this case, it was wearing a low cut top.  We know she would've beaten Vecepia or Neleh if she made Final 2.  Vecepia and Neleh had made a deal behind Kathy’s back to take the other if either won immunity (because each knew they couldn’t have beaten Kathy), so Kathy had to have won that challenge to win the game.

Thailand: Brian Heidik
Brian straight-up lied to people's faces, most notably Ted and Helen.  He told them they weren't going at the next vote, yet they did.  He also was the challenge beast of the season.  This season wasn't known for its great players; in fact, only one player (Shii-Ann) returned to play again that was from this season, and she didn't even make the jury this season.  But Brian was in control pretty much the entire game and was never in danger of being voted out.  Much like with Richard Hatch in Borneo, Brian seemed to be the only real strategist of the season.

Amazon: Rob Cesternino
So far, the best players have either been 1st or 3rd.  Trust me, that will change.  Rob was the one true hard player this season.  Unfortunately for him, turning on Jenna and Heidi (and voting out Alex) cost him.  Also, not winning final three immunity just like Lex and Kathy couldn't, either.  But he basically controlled Matthew in the game and was the first true mastermind of the game.  What would've happened had he stuck with Jenna, Heidi, and Alex?  We'll never know.  But I don't blame him for picking Matthew and Butch; they were much more easily manipulated, and Rob had a VERY good shot at beating either of them in the Final 2. 

Pearl Islands: Sandra Diaz-Twine
Up until this season, no one had played the "as long as it's not me" game better than Sandra.  She always made sure was on the right side of the vote, and it helped that the opposite tribe struggled to win challenges.  However, she did not excel in challenges herself (at all).  In fact, she is still to this date the only Survivor winner not to win a single individual challenge, reward or immunity.  And she did it twice!  She excelled at the final tribal council, giving excellent answers to each of the juror's questions.  My favorite moment of hers was giving Burton and Jon a false sense of security by moping at camp.  She told Jon that she and the other two women did not form a pact to vote one of the guys out, when in fact they did, and she got the biggest threat left in the game in Burton voted out.  She also survived the horrible “outcasts” twist which saw Burton and Lil reintroduced into the game.

All-Stars: Amber Brkich
Now, I so badly wanted to go with Rob on this one.  Rob was the most manipulative player this season by far.  But I have to penalize players who backstab and betray people to the extent that it hurts their chances in the end.  Amber knew what she was doing.  She knew Rob would take all the bullets for her while still making all the decisions together.  She won the Final 4 immunity and I think would've won Final 3 immunity if not for a brain fart in hers in touching the idol with her other hand.  Rob betrayed Lex, Kathy, and Tom, and in some instances, such as with Lex, Rob did not handle it well at all and made Lex look like a fool.  You have to know where to draw the line, and Rob went too far.  Amber did not.  Sometimes the best move is to align with a bad guy, so you look better by comparison.

Vanuatu: Chris Daugherty
Yet again I pick the winner.  Chris went from challenge goat in the very first episode to winning the game.  He formed the "Fat Five" alliance, but once they picked off too many guys, the guys themselves started getting picked off by the women.  Chris then scraped and clawed and lied and deceived his way to the final two.  After that first vote where a woman finally got voted out (Leigh Ann), he was confident the rest of the way.  Sure, he betrayed Julie and Eliza, but they understood it was part of the game and voted for him to win anyway.  He also won the final two immunity challenges.  I think Ami was more of a challenge beast, but towards the end Chris really was in every single one of them, so he greatly improved his game in challenges.  Chris's game reminded me a bit of Brian Heidik's, in that once they got kinda near the end, they were confident in every vote and won the immunity challenges they needed to. 

Palau: Tom Westman
I'm sorry, but we're just in a stretch where the best player wins all the time.  This season wasn't known for its strategists.  Ian seemed to be the one doing the most talking and move-making, but he got caught in too many deals and lies, and ultimately to save face, he had to bow out of the Final 3 Immunity challenge.  Tom, meanwhile, was a beast at challenges, and I bet he set a record for the amount of times he was safe during an episode, whether it be tribal or individual immunity.  He did of course make moves and said things people didn't like, most notably Caryn and Coby, but he won by a margin of 6 votes to 1.  Many will describe him as one of the game's most deserving and likable winners.  Hard to go against that.

Guatemala: Rafe Judkins
I like to pick the challenge beasts, but not just because they do well at challenges.  Rafe had the most immunity wins, but he also did the best to set himself up to win the game.  He and Steph blindsided Jamie, Judd, Lydia and Cindy, yet Steph got all the blame.  Rafe was able to use her as a shield (Like how Amber used Rob).  In a final act of trying to win a jury vote (Steph), he told Danni she didn't HAVE to keep her word and take him to the end.  He did this because he felt bad for Stephanie and the way she fell out of the final immunity challenge.  He also did this in hopes Danni still would take him to the end.  She did not.  Had she taken him to the end, I think Rafe wins 5-2 or even 6-1.  He was well-liked and played the best all-around game, and Danni knew Rafe would have beaten her in the end.

Panama/Exile Island: Cirie Fields
I surprised even myself with this one.  Cirie, to me, played the best strategic and social game.  She engineered getting Courtney and Shane out.  That to me proved she deserved my choice for best of the season.  Aras, the eventual winner, didn't do too much, as I saw Cirie doing more game-planning than him.  It's just a shame she lost the Final 4 firemaking challenge to Danielle.  Had she won that, Cirie probably would have gone to the end and won the whole game.  Aras and Terry had a heated rivalry, and as Aras won the final three immunity he probably would've taken Cirie as he was in an alliance with her as well.  And I honestly think she would've beaten him, not just because of her better strategizing, but because she was more well-liked by everyone, even the people she engineered in voting out.

Cook Islands: Yul Kwon
Was there any question?  Yul found the idol and was able to sway Jonathan over to his side in the most crucial vote of the game.  He went from a tribe down in numbers (just four people) and got them to the Final 4.  He played a very diplomatic and calculated game.  He almost always knew exactly what to say to make the person he's talking to happiest, or in other words, the least upset.  He always talked very politically you might say.  Before the change where the idol could be played after the votes, it was extremely powerful and nobody in two seasons even attempted to flush the idol out, and so they never got played.  He used that to his advantage perfectly. 

Fiji: Yau-Man Chan
It was a close call between Yau-Man and Earl.  What made me choose Yau-Man as best player of the season was that Jeff polled the jury at the reunion show, asking them who they would've voted for if both Earl and Yau-Man were in the final.  Yau-Man got at least 6 of the votes.  Besides that, he was actually better in challenges than Earl and found the idol first.  He was the first person in Survivor history to play an idol successfully, and nobody else this season nor the next played an idol successfully, either.  Yau-Man's downfall was trusting Dreamz, but he was smart to make that deal.  Dreamz should have realized by reneging on that deal he wouldn't get much love from the jury, and Yau-Man was banking on Dreamz realizing that. 

China: Todd Herzog
Todd was in control from the get-go.  It helped to be on the tribe that won more challenges, because if he was on Zhan Hu, he might've been an early boot.  Todd made alliances with almost everyone on his tribe and they all believed he was genuine.  He wasn't particularly good at challenges, with Amanda winning the bulk of the late challenges.  But he was a target from Final 7 on, and he never had an idol in his possession, yet made it by.  He somehow was able to convince Courtney and Amanda and Denise to go to the end with him even though they didn't have a shot against him.  I think he was able to convince the girls they had a shot against him, when actually, they didn’t.

Micronesia/Fans vs. Favorites: Parvati Shallow
Parvati smartly got a lot of people on her side, and she was never pointed out as a threat.  She made alliances with her fellow female Favorites in Cirie and Amanda as well as two female Fans Natalie and Alexis.  She got Ozzy out before he could use the Idol.  She was willing to betray James, but didn't have to because he was medically evacuated.  She spearheaded the Black Widow Alliance and led it all the way to the title of Sole Survivor.  Cirie may have been my first two time pick as best player in a season, but she lost the final immunity challenge.  Also, had this been a Final 3, Cirie may have won, but I still don't think she played the absolute best game.  Parvati did.

Gabon: Kenny Hoang
This is the player who (so far) has placed the worst of all my best players of their season, which is 5th.  In watching the Final Tribal Council, it's evident that none of the best players in the game got to the end.  Sugar didn't get any votes, Susie flip-flopped and did very little strategizing, usually relying on other players to tell her what to do.  And then there's Bob.  Bob was very good in challenges and very good around camp, but did almost no strategizing.  His moves of giving fake idols were other people's ideas.  So to me, Kenny was the best player.  He strategized as well as anyone, executing multiple blindsides, most notably Marcus.  To be able to do that despite Kota dominating in challenges was impressive, although the tribe switches helped.  Kenny's one bad move was getting sure of himself and not realizing he was as big of a threat as he was, but also trying to make Bob out to be the bad guy at the tribal council before he got voted out.  He made a deal with Bob to get his immunity necklace, but Bob reneged on that deal. 

Tocantins: J.T. Thomas
Hard to pick against a guy who played a perfect game, which is to say, never receiving any votes against and receiving every vote at the final tribal council.  He was in danger shortly after the merge, but he made “allies” with Coach and Tyson and Debbie and exploited the fractured Timbira tribe.  It’s amazing that while he was definitely considered a threat to win challenges and the game his entire time there, he never received a single vote against him.  And it’s not like he never went to tribal council vulnerable; his Jalapao tribe lost more than Timbira and he went into the merge down in numbers, and he didn’t win that many immunity challenges (at least not until late in the game).  It’s more impressive to win a game down in numbers after the merge than it is up in numbers.  If it was a close vote at the final TC, I might consider Stephen for this, but Stephen was the Robin to J.T.’s Batman.  Sometimes, just being a really likable person is all it takes to win the game.

Samoa: Russell Hantz
Survivor is a game where it benefits you to lie and deceive people and try to manipulate them, and perhaps no one in the game’s history has done it better than Russell Hantz.  From day one, Russell worked all the women on his tribe and was able to convince the rest of his tribe (Mick, Jaison, Natalie) to vote anyone out that borderline threatened him.  He also was the first person in Survivor history to find a Hidden Immunity Idol without a single clue, and he did it twice.  Nowadays, that’s a common occurrence, but Russell started it.  He entered the merge with a target on his back and greatly down in numbers, but thanks to idols and his manipulating and getting Shambo on his side, he was able to get all the way to the end.  The jury should have swallowed their pride and recognized Russell’s dominating game and voted for him.  His game was a bit like Rob’s from All-Stars, except Russell wasn’t really working with anybody closely.  And Russell didn’t “betray” people quite like Rob did.

Heroes vs. Villains: Parvati Shallow
I couldn’t pick Russell again, because I don’t think he played as good of a game as he did in Samoa, and I can’t pick someone who gets ZERO votes at the final tribal council (if they make it that far).  He played a game that not one person on the jury could respect.  As for Sandra, I just don’t think she did enough in the game.  Sure, she tried exposing Russell for who he is, but she basically lucked herself into the win.  Had the Villains gone to another tribal before the merge, she would’ve been gone.  As for Parvati, she made one of the biggest moves in Survivor history by giving Jerri and Sandra her idols to swing the numbers in the Villains’ favor.  Had she not done that, none of the three of them make the final 3.  And she was challenge beast throughout the season, being in every individual challenge and winning two of the last three.  She should’ve won, but too many of the jury members didn’t like how close she was to Russell.  But like she said, she did what she had to to survive, which at the beginning of the game was aligning with Russell.  All of the Heroes on the jury voted for Sandra because they felt she was the closest thing to a Hero in the Final 3, not because she played the best game.  The only villain to vote for Sandra to win was Courtney who was close to her in the game.  We also can’t forget how Parvati was a target almost all game long, from early on in the game to late in the game, and never got voted out.  To me, Parvati should have been the first two-time winner and not Sandra.

Nicaragua: Holly Hoffman
This was a hard one.  The best strategists of the season, Brenda and Marty, were picked off early.  Chase and Sash both lost to Fabio, but Fabio was just “along for the ride” and was in the finals thanks to some timely immunity challenge wins.  Holly, however, I believe played the very best social game.  She was betrayed by Chase big time and paid the price.  There is no doubt Holly would have won if she had just made it one vote further.  Her story was very inspiring: she went from thinking of quitting to having the desire to win, and she almost did. 

Redemption Island: Rob Mariano
I don’t think one player has ever had this much control for this long in one season.  Boston Rob’s only “lack of control” came early on when his tribe lost some challenges and they had to vote out a few tribe mates.  But the other Zapatera tribe foolishly decided to throw a challenge to get out Russell Hantz, and Rob gained control from there by getting the numbers and controlling his tribe.  He almost treated it like some sort of dictatorship, where Rob did not allow his alliance members  to eat the other tribe’s portions of food or even talk to them alone.  Rob received votes, but only ever from the former Zapatera tribe members.  He even found an Idol that he never needed, and won immunities at crucial times, especially the Final 4 challenge in which I’ve never seen someone so relieved.  I would have to say that you really can’t play a better game of Survivor than Rob did in Redemption Island. 

South Pacific: Sophie Clarke
I seem to be always picking the winner now, but I think the jury got it right this season.  When I first watched this season, I thought the members of the jury were morons.  Now,  I think they chose correctly.  Obviously I had to choose someone in the five alliance as the best.  Rick did no strategizing and was generally poor in challenges.  Brandon was just off his rocker, but he should have gotten more respect from his family.  Albert was too wishy-washy and didn’t play a good social game.  Coach was my next choice, but he made the fatal move of making too many final three deals with people.  I look at Sophie’s game as a cross between Natalie’s of Samoa and Amber’s in All-Stars.  Her intelligence was vastly underrated, and she used a male player as a shield.  You get all the benefit of making the same moves without any of the blame.  And I didn’t even mention Sophie being the best at individual challenges, most notably defeating Ozzy at the Final Four immunity challenge. 

One World: Kim Spradlin
Kim dominated this game, and I think she played one of the best games we have ever seen.  She always put herself in a good position, and then won immunities when it mattered.  Her game was so dominant that she found an idol fairly early on and never came that close to playing it.  Troyzan was the only one who tried to take her out, but she took him out first.  And the biggest thing she did was convincing the other women that she wasn’t a threat to take out.  I would even argue Kim’s game was the most dominant game by a female in the history of Survivor. 

Philippines: Malcolm Freberg
Malcolm was often talked about being the biggest threat or the best player, and rightfully so.  He survived one of the worst tribes of all time, he integrated himself into the Tandang tribe with ease, and he formed a final four alliance with Skupin, Lisa, and Denise, that carried him to the final four.  Unfortunately, he got a F4 challenge that did him in.  I always think if one can find an idol, but they’re always so safe that they never need to play it, that they played a tremendous game, and that was the case for Malcolm.  He played a great social and strategic game, and came one challenge away from winning the million dollars. 

Caramoan: John Cochran
Cochran was never not in control.  Sure, he ceded “actual” control to Philip while Philip was in the game, but that was also a strategy of Cochran’s so that Philip would be the target before he was.  Who knows if or when Cochran would have taken Philip out if the “Three Amigos” didn’t idol him out of the game.  Just when Cochran was starting to be in danger, he won a couple immunities to help guide him to the end.  Cochran also played a perfect game, meaning he didn’t receive any votes against him, and he received all the votes at the Final Tribal Council.  Hard to go against that. 

Blood vs. Water: Tyson Apostol
Tyson was really in control most of the game.  He found two idols before other people, despite them having the same or more clues than him.  He always made sure he had at least two other people with him, usually Gervase and Monica.  He turned on Aras, Vytas, Tina, and Katie at the exact right time.  And then, just when he needed to most, he won individual immunities.  I think I would still have picked him for best player here had he drawn the white rock or if Monica had turned on him.  But it takes a bit of luck to win Survivor as well.

Cagayan: Tony Vlachos
I really could not go with anyone else.  Spencer would be 2nd best, if it’s any consolation.  Tony found a total of three (!) idols throughout his time there.  The funny thing is that he never had to use one to negate votes and save himself.  It was the way Tony talked them up and his “bag of tricks” which scared the other players into not voting for him.  Tony never won an individual immunity challenge, so he was eligible to get votes at every tribal council after the merge.  Yet, he never got the majority of votes.  I don’t like how he broke promises he made on his wife, child, and dead father, but that’s the way he plays, I guess, and it works.  But we have not, and probably will never see again, someone using Idols as a scare tactic better than Tony. 

San Juan Del Sur: Natalie Anderson
I hate always going with the actual winner, but I do think Survivor got better about the best player actually winning.  I was very tempted to award this to Jon, but he got too comfortable in his alliance and also got voted out with an idol in his pocket.  Natalie pulled off several brilliant moves, from “mistakenly” writing Alec’s name down, to blindsiding Baylor with her idol, to convincing Jacqueline that Missy and Keith were the threats she had to choose from.  She won a timely immunity challenge and of course, found an idol.  I was also surprised to learn she didn’t get a single vote against her all game, which is very tough to do.  She didn’t particularly get a winner’s edit, but she was the one player that kept on gaming and strategizing until the end. 

Worlds Apart: Carolyn Rivera
The fact that “Mama C” had to share 2nd place with Will is a travesty.  She smartly used Tyler as a shield until she could not any longer.  She found an idol on Day 1, despite not having the clue.  She knew Joaquin and So were looking for it and followed their footsteps.  She then joined the “Axis of Evil” alliance with the blue collars (minus Mike) and Will.  She won immunities when she needed it, and she played her idol perfectly, negating votes against her which included Dan’s extra vote.  She wasn’t overly impressive at the firemaking challenge against Rodney, which probably hurt her chances.  But she played a superior game to Mike, who made a horrible move to put himself on the outs and had to rely upon winning immunities to stay alive.  Carolyn never seemed to have to scramble, she always seemed like she was in control, and the one time we saw her in trouble, she remained calm.

Cambodia (Second Chance): Jeremy Collins
It’s hard to pick against someone who won unanimously at the final tribal council.  Jeremy played a very smart game.  One smart thing he did was not tell everyone his wife was expecting, as he may have been seen as a jury threat.  He also found two idols.  What always impresses me is when people are so sure of themselves in the game that they can play their idols for other players, and Jeremy did that for Stephen Fischbach.  Jeremy also smartly played his final idol at the “null votes” tribal council, and then won final immunity.  I’d say there was a chance he might have been turned on by Spencer and Tasha if he didn’t win that challenge, but he assured himself a spot at the final tribal council, where he gave some of the best answers I’ve seen there.  Somehow, Jeremy was never seen as a huge threat to win until it was too late, mostly because he aligned himself with people he knew wouldn’t turn on him (at least until it was too late).   

Kaoh Rong: Michele Fitzgerald
This was a very tough one to choose.  The one who outplayed the best was Tai, as he found an idol, won an advantage, and won multiple challenges.  But I went with the actual winner Michele.  I would argue she played one of the best social games in Survivor history.  She was never the backstabber of a vote.  She perfectly skirted between alliances.  The one time she was a target of someone (Tai), no one else wanted to vote for her because she had integrated herself so well.  She was talked about being a social threat late in the game, but she won the final four immunity to ensure her safety.  She then won the advantage to vote out a jury member.  She won challenges when it mattered, and she topped it off with a great final tribal council.  She deserved to win Kaoh Rong. 

Millennials vs. Gen X: Adam Klein
I was so tempted to pick David, but Adam won, and David didn’t.  David played too hard too soon and established himself as a threat.  Adam had about the same level of “outplay” as David, but Adam successfully used people as shields and took them out at the exact right times.  He also smartly didn’t tell anyone (except for Jay) about his mom’s cancer, which would have labeled him as a threat to win.  I mean, Adam did get every single jury vote, and it’s so hard to pick against that. 

Game Changers: Sarah Lacina
Yet again I chose the winner, but I just had to.  Sarah played a very sound strategic and social game.  She had a surprisingly little amount of blood on her hands by the end.  Her best move was getting the legacy advantage from Sierra even after she voted Sierra out.  She went into the game wanting to play like a criminal and not a cop, and boy did she.  She outed Tai, and she made Cirie look like a fool when Cirie tried to play Sarah’s advantage she had given Cirie to hold on to.  Very savvy and impressive game. 

Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers: Devon Pinto
Boy, this was a tough one.  I feel like the final four each had their strengths.  Ben relied too much on idols and that last minute twist, because without it, he was a goner.  Chrissy relied too much on winning immunity.  Ryan couldn’t keep a dang secret, and I think he only made one good move all game, finding the idol advantage and giving it to Chrissy.  But Devon did a good job of ingratiating himself into alliances.  He formed bonds with Healers, Ryan, Chrissy, and Ashley.  Ben saw him as a target, and at Final 5, Devon would have been gone had he not cast his vote for Dr. Mike.  Devon had the best social game, and I’m almost positive if he made it to the end, he would have won. 

Ghost Island: Wendell Holland
I had to go back to picking the winner again.  Wendell played a great social game, used Dominick as a shield, found an important idol, and won timely immunity challenges.  Wendell won the final 6 and 5 immunities.  Little did he know then, that him giving his idol to Laurel at final 5 probably ensured she voted for him in the tie-breaking vote.  That was huge.  He didn’t win the final 4 immunity, but he knew how to make fire so he didn’t have to win it.  Wendell didn’t really piss anyone off, and helped build shelters to help build a very strong social game. 

David vs. Goliath: Nick Wilson
Nick earned this win.  He flew under the radar for the most part, although he had to rely on Pat’s injury (possibly) to survive the first vote.  But after that, he smartly made little alliances with people, even giving them nicknames, like Mason-Dixon with Christian and the Rockstar Alliance with Mike.  What I always think makes a great player late is their ability to come in clutch and win a lot of the final immunity challenges, and Nick did just that.  But perhaps the best thing Nick did was boding with Angelina and Mike, making it very hard for them to turn on him. 

Edge of Extinction: Rick Devens
It’s too bad that everyone saw Devens as the huge threat he was to win.  He was like the Ben Driebergen of his season, finding idols and having a huge target on his back post-merge.  Unfortunately for him, unlike Ben, he did not win the fire-making challenge.  Chris took the opportunity to take him out, and he did just that.  Sure, Rick did get voted out, but he wasn’t out of the game too long.  I also want to add he wouldn’t have been voted out the first time if his tribe wasn’t so awful at challenges.

Island of the Idols: Janet Corbin
I’m not going to go into much detail, because I stopped rewatching at IOI, so  I’m going off my memory of what I remember watching over a year ago.  Janet was extremely likable and did surprisingly well in challenges, I remember.  It’s just unfortunate that in the game of Survivor, if you’re likable, you’re a target.  If Janet gets to the end, I think she beats anyone who finished ahead of her. 

Winners at War: Tony Vlachos
It would have been a travesty if Tony didn’t win.  He won numerous immunity challenges, especially when he needed them most.  He made a core alliance that he stuck with, and he eliminated anyone that opposed him (Kim) or anyone that was flaky (Jeremy, Nick).  He was given so little help in the game that, as he stated at the Final Tribal Council, he got more hurt by advantages than helped by them.  He found an idol, which he didn’t have to play, but after Natalie played hers at Final 6, he realized he better play it safe.  To top it off, he didn’t receive a single vote against him, and he won in a 12-4-0 landslide victory.  Tony is the king of Survivor.
To finish this off, some stats about the players I picked as the best player their season:

- 25 out of 40 times, I conceded that the winner was the best player that season.
- Three of these players received an amount of votes in the double digits: Lex, Carolyn, and Devens (who led the way with 12). Both Devens and Carolyn negated some votes with an Idol. Lex played when there were no idols.
- Malcolm and Devens tied for seven individual challenge wins - Of the 40 players, so far 28 have gone on to play after the season I picked them as the best. That's largely thanks to Winners at War. - The lowest my best player ranked is 5th, shared by Kenny (Gabon) and Janet (Island of the Idols).