The future of the Mariners

In April, I discussed how I could have been more excited for the Mariners' upcoming season, their slow-ish start, and who's to blame for the lack of success.  How little I knew then.  Sure, this team went on a hot streak from May into June to get a 10-game lead in the division, but then we all know what happened.  They currently sit five games out, a difference of 15 games over roughly two months.  And the biggest culprit to the Mariners' lack of success is well documented--the hitting or lack thereof.  They currently have an MLB-low .215 team batting average for the year and lead the majors in strikeouts.  The team's hitting approach is easily the worst in the majors.  There is no reason this team should not be hitting at least 25th in the majors and not be #1 in strikeouts with this roster.  

This team has been moving backward for the last three seasons.  They have gone from the playoffs in 2022 to barely missing them in 2023 to likely missing them by a bit more here in 2024.  That is the very definition of trending downward.  We've seen coaches or managers canned after one off year many times.  Sure, Servais has built a reputation and system here, but whatever he's done is clearly not working.  They were supposed to take steps forward after 2022, but instead have only gone backward.  Good coaching takes teams heading in the right direction, not steering them the other way. 

But as I've said, it's not entirely Servais's or the coaching staff's fault.  I guarantee if you could read his mind, you'd hear his grumblings with the lack of talent on the hitting side of things.  Too often he's had to put less than ideal players hitting third or cleanup.  Too often he hasn't had a capable guy to be the bridge from the starter to Munoz. 

So should he go?  I think he has to.  We see coaches and managers let go all the time when it's not entirely their fault.  Or even mostly.  But the Mariners would be smart to emulate what the Seahawks did and bring in an entirely new coaching staff.  Maybe try holding onto pitching coach Pete Woodworth, if possible.  

My biggest gripe with Servais is his lack of emotion.  I grew up with fiery Lou Piniella, so I almost expect it.  Servais, even in the worst of losses, is too robotic and lacks energy.  He does on occasion go out and fight for his players against the umpires, but it's not often enough.  Sure, he's good at making sure this team doesn't get too high or too low, but I really think he lacks in the motivation department.  

I fully expect the Mariners to finish around .500, missing the playoffs by a decent amount of games, and questions begin swirling about the team's future.  I'm going to one game this year (as I've already bought the tickets), but that's it.  I've paid less attention to them this year than any other year in my entire adult life.   How much I invest in them next season depends on how much they change going into 2025.  Will they have a new manager?  Will they finally invest in some quality bats?  Will they possibly even make a change at president or GM?  The more that changes for the better, the more I'll invest.  However, if they merely try to "stay the course", I assure you, they won't be getting much from me next season at all.  Of course, if they make so many changes that it becomes a rebuild, that will not do it for me.  All this disappointment has taken a toll on me, and I'm sick of it.     

Update: Servais was fired on Aug. 22, and the Mariners have done okay since his firing.  Maybe slightly better.  Do I agree with it?  Yes.  He and Bud Black were the only two managers in MLB to have managed for as long as they had without any divisional playoff wins or division titles.  Yes, Bud Black needs to go as well.  I like Dan Wilson, I think he's more relatable for the players.  Servais seemed to have this "my door's always open but not" type energy.  Like, he would come off as affable but you'd realize he wasn't as much.  

The team also announced Jerry Dipoto would be retained, and I'm honestly okay with that.  I know a lot of Mariners fans aren't.  But here's what Jerry has done: Built one of the best pitching rotations in baseball.  Built a farm system that has been ranked near the top often in the last 5 years.  And he's kept us at least as a competitive team, avoiding terrible seasons.  Jack Zduriencik and Bill Bavasi couldn't say that.  Dipoto is at least better than them, and I'd rather not let him go and risk getting another Zduriencik or Bavasi.  

It's hard to say how much of my time and money I'll invest into the Mariners in 2025.  Likely similar to 2024.  I may go to one game.  I'm not paying for cable or Fubo TV to watch them.  I likely won't buy any merchandise.  I'd love to be more invested, but I've got to see some actual championship-type moves made first.

Condensed 2024 NFL Predictions!

 I will, at the very least, keep up my tradition of predicting the NFL season, even though I'm always wrong about many things.  But hey, it's fun.  I'm going to get straight to it, the predicted records, the playoff predictions, and then, a short bit about the Seahawks, my favorite team.  A heads up, I'm going to try to predict a few surprises, so some of these records may surprise you.  After all, we always see several surprisingly good and bad teams each season.

* = Wild Card

AFC EAST
1. Miami Dolphins 11-6
2. Buffalo Bills 10-7*
3. New England Patriots 8-9
4. New York Jets 6-11
Comment: The Dolphins win a mediocre at best division as the Bills have a few setbacks.  The Patriots and Drake Maye surprise some people.  Aaron Rodgers either struggles or gets hurt and the Jets are, well, the Jets.

AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati Bengals 12-5
2. Baltimore Ravens 11-6*
3. Cleveland Browns 8-9
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-10
Comment: The Bengals are back on top and Burrow plays all season.  The Ravens regress slightly, most notably on defense after losing Mike Macdonald.  The Browns are okay, but Watson proves to not stay healthy or consistent.  The Steelers regress without a solid QB as both Wilson and Fields struggle against the tough defenses of the AFC North.

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts 11-6
2. Houston Texans 10-7*
3. Tennessee Titans 9-8
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-11
Comment: Yep, you heard it here.  The Colts surge with a healthy Anthony Richardson.  The Texans are still decent, but slightly lose their grasp on the division.  The Titans surprise people with their underrated D and Will Levis competing his butt off.  The Jaguars again struggle to find consistency.

AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs 10-7
2. Los Angeles Chargers 9-8
3. Denver Broncos 7-10
4. Las Vegas Raiders 4-13
Comment: The Chiefs win the worst division in the AFC despite a bit of a Super Bowl hangover.  The Chargers show flashes under new coach Jim Harbaugh, but look like they'll take a year to make a big stride.  The Broncos are competitive, and Bo Nix establishes himself as the starter.  The Raiders struggle mightily, even under Minshew.

NFC EAST
1. Dallas Cowboys 10-7
2. Philadelphia Eagles 8-9
3. Washington Commanders 8-9
4. New York Giants 7-10
Comment: In a very mediocre division, Dallas remains on top.  The Eagles struggle and continue their slide from last season.  The Commanders show some flashes but it's not enough.  The Giants aren't terrible, but are missing a star QB.

NFC NORTH
1. Detroit Lions 12-5
2. Chicago Bears 9-8*
3. Green Bay Packers 7-10
4. Minnesota Vikings 5-12
Comment: The Lions win the division two years in a row thanks to the best roster in the division.  The Bears surprise people and Caleb Williams looks like the real deal.  Jordan Love shows a bit that last year was a bit of an abberration.  The Vikings struggle without JJ McCarthy and having to go with Darnold.

NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons 10-7
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-10
3. New Orleans Saints 6-11
4. Carolina Panthers 6-11
Comment: The Falcons win a very winnable division thanks to the addition of Cousins.  The Bucs struggle in year 2 under Mayfield.  The Saints and Panthers have different stories: The Saints suffer massive disappointment while the Panthers remain optimistic under new head coach Dave Canales.

NFC WEST
1. San Francisco 49ers 13-4
2. Seattle Seahawks 10-7*
3. Los Angeles Rams 10-7*
4. Arizona Cardinals 6-11
Comment: The 49ers remain very tough and win a formidable division.  My Seahawks surprise people and win 10 games, largely thanks to an improved defense.  The Rams also win ten games, but more on the back of their offense.  The Cardinals aren't awful, but struggle to beat any somewhat decent teams.

Before I get to the playoffs, here are the coaches in this scenario I'd expect to get fired:
Robert Saleh, Jets
Doug Pederson, Jaguars
Antonio Pierce, Raiders
Nick Sirianni, Eagles
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers
Dennis Allen, Saints

With Mike Tomlin as an outside possibility (possibly steps down instead of getting fired).  

Now onto the NFL Playoffs!  Who is my prediction for Super Bowl LIX?

AFC WILD CARD
(7) Texans at (2) Dolphins: Dolphins win
(6) Bills at (3) Colts: Bills win
(5) Ravens at (4) Chiefs: Chiefs win

NFC WILD CARD
(7) Bears at (2) Lions: Lions win
(6) Rams at (3) Cowboys: Rams win
(5) Seahawks at (4) Falcons: Seahawks win

AFC DIVISIONAL
(6) Bills at (1) Bengals: Bengals win
(4) Chiefs at (2) Dolphins: Chiefs win

NFC DIVISIONAL
(6) Rams at (1) 49ers: 49ers win
(5) Seahawks at (2) Lions: Lions win

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
AFC: Chiefs at Bengals: Bengals
NFC: Lions at 49ers: 49ers

SUPER BOWL LIX
Bengals vs 49ers: 49ers win, 23-17

Yup, I hate to admit it, but the 49ers finally win another Super Bowl.  Turns out, third time is the charm for Kyle Shanahan, at least as a head coach.  

And now, my Seahawks.  I don't want to predict each game, because I'll be wrong about some wins and I'll be wrong about some losses.  I'll just go over three aspects of the team:

Offense: Slow start, but shows more explosiveness than last season.  There's not a ton of consistency with the offense.  Some games they may score 30+, others less than 20.  Geno has a bit of a bounce back season.  The lack of quality tight end depth hurts.  The run game could still be improved and show more consistency, as K9 breaks a few home run type runs but struggles to gain consistent yardage.

Defense: The defense is improved without the secondary of Diggs and Adams dragging them down.  The loss of Wagner's leadership is felt, but a few young players emerge, such as Derick Hall and of course, Byron Murphy.  The D-Line proves to be a Top 10 D-Line in the NFL.  The linebackers have their ups and downs, while the secondary is mostly decent.  

Coaching: I expect the growing pains that usually come with a rookie head coach/new coaching staff, but I do expect a new energy in this team.  I think they'll be in the middle of the league in terms of penalties (perhaps still bottom half) but I expect the Time of Possession to improve, largely due to the defense getting off the field, rather than the offense sustaining drives.  All in all, I expect a solid first season with a bright future in front of us.

Well, that does it for my 2024 NFL Predictions.  I'll take the Hawks having a good first year under Mike Macdonald, even if it means a 49ers Super Bowl... I guess.  But it should be a fun season.  Go Hawks!