Hey, this is Brian from Oct. 2023, the regular text is what I wrote towards the end of July. It was right before the Mariners went on their amazing run in August. Unfortunately, they followed it up with a stinker of a month in September. I thought I'd go through and make any additional comments to what I previously said. I'll save them for after the paragraph (if I have a comment), so I'm not interrupting too often.
I haven't done a mid-season review of the Mariners, but I think it's obvious why I haven't. This year's team, the 2023 team, is painfully mediocre. They capitalized last year on a lot of players finding success, and most of those same players have not been able to replicate last year's success, for the most part. I believe last year was their peak, and they will not reach any higher heights with this front office and ownership. I think this season is more of a regression to the mean. I think the average amount of wins you will get with these kinds of teams is 80-90. They're slightly better than average, on average. This year, they're just average.
The Mariners finished with 88 wins, right where I said. 90 wins is about their ceiling. They may get lucky and get 92, 93, 94 wins, but a division title is unlikely given the competition from Texas and Houston.
One reason why this team will never eclipse 90 or so wins or win the division or even get to the ALCS is because ownership has restricted spending. Take a look at the last couple of big contracts they dished out: Robinson Cano and Robbie Ray. It's safe to say that so far they have not been worth the money spent. Cano did have a couple great years, but he was unable to help us get to the playoffs. I think ownership and John Stanton are extremely hesitant to give Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander the green light on doling out a contract worth $100m or more, mainly because the last few haven't quite panned out. They aren't the cheapest ownership group in sports, but they're cheaper than the average ownership group.
Another reason why this team will never reach a higher peak is because hitting just cannot be developed in a consistent manner. How many hitters have come through the Mariners' minor league system and had a successful career with them? Not many. Kyle Seager is basically the only one in the last 20 years. Julio and Cal Raleigh can perhaps join that list, but both have had down years after great first full years in 2022. For whatever reason, this team and organization can develop pitchers as well as anyone, but they cannot develop hitters. The most baffling thing to me is how they preach "Control the Zone", yet the Mariners are consistently near the top of the league in strikeouts.
Julio's massive August really boons his season, and I think it's safe to say he's a rare success story coming out of the minors. Cal is borderline. But Julio had so much upside it was hard for him not to pan out. Also, the Mariners finished 2nd in the AL in strikeouts, behind only Minnesota. But Minnesota was 4th in the AL in OPS, while the Mariners were barely above league average.
The one thing I can fault the front office for most is the construction of the roster, namely the position players. A team built on pitching doesn't need to be complemented by power hitters who strike out a lot. They need consistent on-base guys that have speed, get around the bases, and play small ball to support the pitching. It is a lot easier to play small ball and manufacture runs than it is to rely upon the home run ball. Relying upon the home run ball is just asking for spurts of bad offense, which will ultimately result in losses. Acquiring guys like Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez were not the smartest moves, because this team already had high strikeout guys in Julio, Kelenic, and Raleigh coming up through the system. It's like having a football team with a great defense, but an offense that cannot run the ball nor has a short passing game.
One thing I am always quick to point the finger at during losses is coaching, namely manager Scott Servais. But Servais is not an awful manager. However, I do not believe he is the type of manager that can elevate a team with average talent. He's great at motivating young guys, and would probably have a surprising amount of success on a team like Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Colorado. And he'd probably do ok managing elite talent-level teams, like the Dodgers and Astros (which is true of most managers). His in-game management and decisions leave a lot to be desired, such as his reliance on having a left/right advantage with the opposition. Often, he will remove a better hitter for a worse hitter just to get that advantage. He doesn't seem to have a good game feel, relying on colder bats in clutch moments than hot ones. I don't think he's the biggest reason for this team's inability to do better than 2022, but he's certainly a contributing factor. I think Servais, once he leaves the Mariners, will likely be mostly remembered for his decision to put in Robbie Ray against Yordan Alvarez in Game 1 of the ALDS. If he goes with Swanson or someone else, the Mariners likely win the game, and who knows how that series turns out.
I will always root for the Mariners, but it is extremely disheartening being as confident as I am that this team will never eclipse 2022 with its current front office, management, and likely, ownership. In fact, I am willing to bet on it. If the Mariners win the World Series under Dipoto/Hollander/Servais, I will get a tattoo of the Mariners logo and the words "____ World Series Champions", with the year they won it at the beginning. I don't like the idea of permanently scarring my body with tattoos, but that just shows how confident I am that this team will not do any better than last season. I could say I'd get a tattoo if they reach the ALCS or the World Series, but a tattoo saying "2024 ALCS representative" sounds pretty lame to me. If they get to the ALCS or World Series under this regime, I will spend the combination of wins and team batting average on Mariners merchandise. So if they win 95 games and have a team batting average of .250, I will buy $345 dollars worth of Mariners merchandise.
I'm sticking to this. So long as Jerry, Justin, and Scott are with the Mariners, if the Mariners win a World Series, I will get that tattoo. And I'll stand by what I said about spending money on merch, too. I am that confident that this team will not do better than a borderline wild card/ALDS loser. Last year, 2022, was their peak.
I hope I am wrong about all of this and the team surprises me. But I have watched enough baseball, specifically Mariners baseball, to know that this team is still shackled by its ownership, front office, management, and roster construction. They will have plenty of great moments and may once again sneak into the playoffs, but I will be beyond shocked if this team plays like one of the league's absolute best for any significant amount of time under this regime. In my opinion, there are too many things that would need to change about this team and organization in order to consistently become one of MLB's best. Simply firing Servais wouldn't do it. Acquiring a contact bat: same thing. But I can still enjoy their good moments when they come, despite the fact that I will be wishing they were more frequent.
Update, 2024: Well, the Mariners fired Servais, so I'm taking the tattoo offer off the table. I'll still spend money on the Mariners if they at least make the ALCS under Dipoto. But I knew Servais wasn't the guy to take us to the World Series. But perhaps Wilson or someone else is.
Friday, July 28, 2023
The Mariners have already reached their peak, at least with this front office and ownership
Monday, July 10, 2023
My Top 10 Nintendo 64 Games
Honorable Mention: Pokemon Snap
As a huge fan of the first two generations of Pokemon, I had to get and play Pokemon Snap as a kid. I loved trying to best my previous shots that I had submitted to Professor Oak. I also loved how the game slowly expanded, adding maps and items to interact with the Pokemon. Unfortunately, this game is limited, as it sets you on the same linear track for each map. It would've been cool if they at least had multiple tracks to choose from (each one with Pokemon you couldn't get on other paths). I was also hoping for a sequel to be released when Generation 2 games came out, but alas, it wasn't to be.
10. Super Smash Bros.
I was never that great of a Smash Bros. player, as my friends could attest to, but I still enjoyed it. My favorite to play as, unsurprisingly, was Kirby, as he was easiest to succeed with for noobs like me. What I really liked though were the "Break the Targets" and "Board the Platforms" challenges they had for each character. I liked how each character's challenges were uniquely different and suited them. I completed most of them, but I think there's a couple I could never manage.
9. NBA Hangtime
This arcade style basketball game was pretty fun. If I could change one thing, it would be to not have a time limit on the team/player selection screen. But they had to make it as much like an arcade game as they could, I suppose. I did once beat every team in the game with a created player. I also wish the game had famous players like Michael Jordan, Shaquille O'Neal, and Charles Barkley, who were in the NBA at the time, but I think they weren't part of the players union or something.
8. Pokemon Stadium (+ Pokemon Stadium 2)
Like I said, I was a big fan of Pokemon during the first two generations, so I had to get Pokemon Stadium. I remember going opening day and spending my birthday money on it. I distinctly remember it was close to $100, due to it containing the Gameboy cartridge adapter pack. But I just absolutely loved how you could now play your Pokemon games on a bigger screen. A screen, also, that didn't require additional lighting. I spent countless hours doing that. I also thoroughly enjoyed playing through the gym leaders they had in this game and of course, the minigames, which are still fun to this day.
7. Star Fox 64
I remember playing this as a kid, but not having a ton of success with it in the single-player missions. I always get stuck on the same planet. Eventually, I played it through as a young adult, and I beat the game. It was the easy path, but hey, I did it. Maybe someday I'll do a harder path. Anyway, as a kid, I remember playing multiplayer with my sister/friends and shooting each other down. That was fun.
6. Wave Race 64
Another great multiplayer game was Wave Race. I enjoyed the single-player races as well, and the stunt missions were fun, too. I think I raced best with the girl in the game. I thought she had the best handling. But this game did get a bit monotonous at times, as it was basically just riding a jet ski to the correct side of a buoy. But hey, it's still fun, and that announcer guy really earned his paycheck.
5. Goldeneye 007
Who didn't play the multiplayer version of this as kids? I remember it fondly. I also played the campaign many times, although I could never beat it, and I still haven't beaten it. I have tried picking it up in recent years, only to realize how bad the controls are compared to FPS today, but perhaps someday.
4. Mario Party (+ Mario Party 2)
I would argue the first two Mario Party's were the best multiplayer games on the Nintendo 64. I remember putting countless hours into the first, both by myself and with others. I also remember getting burns/blisters on the palm of my hand from the control stick spinning minigames. I then (not very smartly) used a pair of batting gloves I owned, but I only ended up ruining those. As for the second one, I never owned it, but I rented it several times from Blockbuster. I probably should have just bought it (or asked for it for Christmas).
3. Mario Kart 64
My girlfriend and I will still to this day whip this game out and do a grand prix together. It holds up well. I never had a favorite racer or favorite map, but I still enjoyed it. I also loved the multiplayer battles they had as well. I don't think there's been a 2 or 3-year period in my life that I haven't played this game since getting it. I just have to play it every few years.
2. Major League Baseball Featuring Ken Griffey Jr.
This may be my favorite baseball video game of all time. It's close. It's got an arcade style, which you have to accept. But I loved playing as the Mariners, mainly because they had such great players at the time in Jr., Edgar, Buhner, Randy Johnson, and A-Rod. It's a bit too easy for me now, as I can just run up the score on the computer, even with a team full of bad players. I just love the controls, which in my opinion, hold up well today.
1. Super Mario 64
How could I not make this #1? Granted, there is no multiplayer element, but there is no game I have put more single-player hours into in my life. As a kid, this game did eventually fall to the wayside as I played others (like the ones on this list). But I still pick it up every few years. It wasn't until my late teens/early 20s that I finally got 120 stars. Now, it's no problem to get. I still see others streaming this game, showing me new ways to get stars, or showing me new glitches, so I have to try them out myself. A few glitches I have gotten to work are glitching Mips through a door and doing the BLJ (backwards long jump) up a flight of stairs to get into an area I'm not supposed to have access to yet. Anyway, this is just a game I could see myself playing every decade for the rest of my life; it's just that perfect.
Monday, June 12, 2023
My Top 10 Original Xbox Games
I want to do a series where I rank the Top 10 games on each console I own or have played, mainly the original Xbox, Xbox 360, Nintendo 64, and maybe a PC or Xbox One. I have played video games since I was a little lad, and I have developed some favorites over the years.
First up, is the original Xbox. I have put so many hours into my Xbox. I still have the same one my family got in 2001, although I did replace the disc drive a few years ago since it got to a point where it wouldn't open on its own anymore. Anyway, I'm going to rank my Top 10 Original Xbox games. These are my opinion, and are mostly based on how much I enjoyed playing each game and how many hours I put into each. Also, if there are multiple games from the same franchise, I will consider that as a single entry. Here are my Top 10!
Honorable Mention: The Lord of the Rings (The Two Towers and Return of the King)
I had to technically include an 11th with The Lord of the Rings here. I've never been the biggest fan of button mashers, which made this a bit difficult for me as a kid. But eventually, I did get the hang of it enough to put in plenty of hours. I loved playing battles from the films, most notably Helm's Deep. They even had a few battles not seen in the films. And I enjoyed the special features from the films they added for completing certain levels. I would definitely consider going back to this someday.
10. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
The Harry Potter franchise had a total of four games from the films (plus Quidditch World Cup) come out on the original Xbox, but the only one I really played on the Xbox was Chamber of Secrets. It's still to this day one of my favorite Harry Potter video games. I've beaten it several times. The high amount of loading screens sucks, and dueling in the game is somewhat broken, but it's still enjoyable. I especially love the open-world aspect and flying around Hogwarts and exchanging beans for items at Fred and George's shop.
9. Grand Theft Auto Series (III, Vice City, and San Andreas)
I have still not played GTA III much, but I put in plenty of hours into Vice City and San Andreas soon after I got them. I remember when the games first came out on Playstation and hearing about how violent and bad for kids they were. It just made me want to play it that much more. When III and Vice City finally came to Xbox, I had to get my hands on them. I have not played them much in the years since, because the newer GTA's have made these look old and obsolete, but perhaps someday.
8. Star Wars: Obi-Wan
As a huge Star Wars fan, I've played my fair share of Star Wars video games, including Star Wars: Obi-Wan. This was one of the first games my family got for the Xbox. I remember struggling in the game at first, but once I got the hang of it, it was smooth sailing. I've only beaten the game two times (or so), but I thoroughly enjoyed it each time. I thought the combat elements and gameplay were better than what critics said.
7. Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon (And Ghost Recon Island Thunder)
Ghost Recon became my favorite military-style FPS growing up. I would play this over Call of Duty or anything else. I loved having two teams and telling the other what to do. I loved being the sniper and picking guys off from a distance. The "expansion" Island Thunder was just as good, albeit a bit shorter. I distinctly remember saving myself into a corner a few times. That's when you save your game a split second before you die. There was nothing I could do about it. And that resulted in me having to restart the level. Anyway, I definitely want to give Ghost Recon another playthrough someday. Also, I never played the sequel Ghost Recon 2. I saw my dad play it and realized it was too different from the original.
6. MLB 2K5
This might be my favorite baseball video game of all time. I love the ESPN presentation and having Jon Miller and Joe Morgan as announcers. The gameplay is solid and just about difficult enough. I especially love constructing teams (trading players, signing and releasing players). Sometimes I would construct a team and sim them for years to see if I could ever win a championship.
5. Star Wars: Battlefront (and Battlefront II)
The original Battlefront games are maybe one of my favorite third-person shooters ever. I love playing in basically every battle from the films and as either side AND as any unit on that side. It still holds up well to this day. I did play the remake, but it doesn't compare well to the simplicity of the original. I loved playing as a Jedi or Sith in the second one, especially the "All Jedi/Sith" mode set on Mos Eisley.
4. NBA Inside Drive 2003
This is, without a doubt, my favorite basketball video game of all time. I have played through dozens of entire seasons where I created a team of players from scratch. The player progression system in this game is one of my favorites of all time, where players earn points for doing well in games, and you can spend those points on certain attributes to make them better. The created players all kind of look robotic, but there are plenty of customization options. Plus, the gameplay is superb and I can't knock it.
3. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic (and KOTOR II: The Sith Lords)
I have beaten the first game close to a dozen times, each of which takes me 20-24 hours to do. So, do the math. I've beaten the sequel close to half as many times. It's just one of those games with immense replay value, because of all the different choices you can make. Of course, the customization options make you want to play as someone completely different each time. And the story... don't even get me started! How has no one adapted this into a film or series yet? The sequel's gameplay might even be a step up, although I think the story lacks. I just put so many hours into these games, and they might still to this day be my favorite Star Wars video games of all time.
2. Halo: Combat Evolved (And Halo 2)
I'd wager this would be on and likely near the top of most people's favorite original Xbox games. How could it not be? When you think of OG Xbox, you think of Halo. I don't know if I've put the absolute most hours into the first two games (I put in a ton to the third, though), but I have to say my enjoyment each time I play through the campaign hardly ever wavers. There was simply nothing like playing through the campaign of either of these games in the early 2000s.
1. ESPN NFL 2K5
My favorite sports video game ever. It's just perfect. The ESPN presentation, the gameplay, the roster-building, and the customization options, are all that make ESPN NFL 2K5 my favorite Xbox game ever. The announcers they used could maybe be better, but they are still super solid. There's a reason people keep modding this game and adding the current day's rosters to it. Because it's that good! And it was $20 at release! Imagine what 2K sports could have accomplished if they were allowed to compete with EA/Madden to make NFL video games. Imagine what we could have now, instead of the garbage EA churns out every year. Such a shame. Anyway, I still replay this game almost every year during football season because it's simply that much fun. I love it.
Well, those were my top 10 original Xbox games of all time. I may soon do a Top 10 for 360 and/or Nintendo 64.
Wednesday, May 17, 2023
My 31 Day Film Challenge
Day 1: The first film you remember watching - Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs
I remember seeing Snow White in theaters--there must have been a re-air of it. I couldn't have been older than 5 or 6. Anything before that I cannot remember.
Day 2: A film you like that starts with the first letter of your name: Bruce Almighty
Surprisingly, I couldn't think of many films that started with a "B". But Bruce Almighty came to mind, and I think it's classic Jim Carrey. I've seen it at least half a dozen times and I enjoy it each time.
Day 3: A film that has more than five words: Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
Hey, it has six words, so that counts. This film introduced me to the visual magical world of Harry Potter, and it's still my favorite Harry Potter movie to this date.
Day 4: A film with a number in the title: 17 Again
It wasn't particularly well received, but I enjoyed it. I actually own it on DVD. It's my favorite number, and it stars Matthew Perry, most known as Chandler from Friends (one of my favorite shows of all time).
Day 5: A film where a character has a job you want: Draft Day
Really, anyone in the front office of an NFL team. Kevin Costner as Sonny Weaver is the lead and would be a great candidate. Or even being one of the scouts would be cool, too.
Day 6: Your favorite animated film: The Lion King
I grew up with The Lion King. I played the video game, I had a stuffed Simba, and of course, I've seen the film more times than I can count.
Day 7: A film that you will never get tired of: National Treasure
I can't explain it, but it's certainly one of my guilty pleasure films. Whenever I see it playing on TV, I have to watch a bit of it.
Day 8: A film where you liked the soundtrack more: The Godfather
I wasn't the biggest fan of The Godfather; don't get me wrong, I think it is a magnificently made film. I just like the soundtrack more than the film itself.
Day 9: A film you hate that everyone else liked: Requiem for a Dream
I do not like this film, mainly because I can't understand it, but also because I've never done drugs. It just gets high praise for a film that is not entertaining to me whatsoever.
Day 10: Your favorite superhero film: Avengers Endgame
Recency bias perhaps, but you'll be hard-pressed to find a film where so many heroes come together to save the day in such an epic way.
Day 11: A film you like from your least favorite genre: My Neighbor Totoro
I do not like Anime or foreign films, whichever this falls under. But I like this film, and I watched it a lot at the daycare I went to as a kid.
Day 12: A film that you hate from your favorite genre: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Like many Star Wars fans, I have grown a disdain for the sequel trilogy, most notably the final film in the trilogy. So many missed opportunities and choices made by the writers that just weren't fulfilling to us as fans.
Day 13: A film that put you in deep thoughts: Interstellar
I think anyone that's seen this will know why and I don't have to explain here. I also considered "Inception". I guess any Christopher Nolan film could be considered.
Day 14: A film that gave you depression: Friday Night Lights
This was the first sports film I remember watching where the main characters lose at the end. I just remember feeling depressed after watching it--what was the point? But as I've gotten older, I've come to realize that it's not always about the destination; sometimes it's about the journey (and the friends you make along the way).
Day 15: A film that makes you feel happy: Rat Race
There are many laugh-out-loud moments, plus the ending with Smash Mouth is fun to sing along to. I never finish this film in a bad mood.
Day 16: A film that is personal to you: Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones
I saw Episode II in theaters with my dad, and it's one of the few movies I remember seeing in theaters with him. I just remember bonding with him a lot that day, as we went to Fatburger afterwards. That's a core memory that'll likely stick with me forever.
Day 17: Favorite film sequel: National Treasure: Book of Secrets
Yes, I'm a fan of the National Treasure films. And Book of Secrets was just as good as the original NT movie, in my opinion.
Day 18: A film that stars your favorite actor/actress: Captain Phillips
My favorite actor has changed a lot throughout the years, but I think right now it's Tom Hanks. And he was tremendous in this.
Day 19: A film made by your favorite director: Elf
It's hard to say who my favorite director is, because I feel like it changes all the time. But because of his recent work with Star Wars, and because I like Elf, Iron Man and Iron Man 2 so much, I decided to go with Jon Favreau. I also enjoy the Jungle Book and the Lion King, both of which had amazing effects.
Day 20: A film that changed your life: Super Size Me
This documentary changed me, because it got me to eat less fast food. I especially remember in the bonus scenes where they recorded how long it took for McDonald's foods (burger, fries) to decompose. It was surprisingly long.
Day 21: A film that you dozed off in: Wonder Woman
It may have been because we were seeing it late at night, but I actually dozed off during the film's climax. I haven't really found the recent DC Comics films that engaging, to be honest.
Day 22: A film that made you angry: Mother!
I don't know why people would want to watch this a second time. It is such an infuriating film, especially if you put yourself in the shoes of the main character played by Jennifer Lawrence.
Day 23: A film made by a director that is dead: 2001: A Space Odyssey
The first deceased director that came to mind was Stanley Kubrick, and my favorite film of his is 2001: A Space Odyssey.
Day 24: A film you wish you saw in theaters: Star Wars: Episode IV: A New Hope
I never had the chance to when it premiered as I wasn't born yet, but if I could time travel to 1977 and see it in theaters, that would make my life.
Day 25: A film you like that is not set in the current era: Titanic
What can I say, I love this film. It's extremely well-made and I enjoy it each time. And, every time I watch it, I pick up on something I never noticed or knew before.
Day 26: A film you like that is adapted from somewhere: Holes
This is one of the closest book-to-film adaptations where I've read the book and seen the movie. I have to watch Holes every few years just to keep it fresh in my memory.
Day 27: A film that is visually striking to you: Avatar
There's a reason it was the highest-grossing film ever for 10 years. And I got to watch it in 3D on my dad's tv with special 3D glasses. It was awesome.
Day 28: A film that made you feel uncomfortable: The Green Inferno
Uncomfortable would be putting it lightly. It actually made me squirm and a bit nauseous. In the film, a group of college students on a trip to the Amazon get captured by a native village (one of those with no connection to the outside world) and one of the unlucky students gets every one of his limbs cut off, his eyes gouged out, and his tongue cut off. And it's incredibly realistic looking.
Day 29: A film that makes you want to fall in love: Love, Actually
There are several love stories in one in this classic. They're all different types of romances, so it appeals to a wide variety of people.
Day 30: A film with your favorite ending: The Departed
If you happen to avoid spoilers and see the ending, your jaw will without a doubt drop. I love surprise endings and moments that make you just stop and stare in shock and awe. This definitely fulfills that.
Tuesday, May 9, 2023
Top 10 Things We Have Yet to See on Survivor (But May Someday)
I do a lot of blog posts on one of my favorite TV shows ever, Survivor. I enjoy how the game has evolved over the years, and new things are happening all the time with its evolution. We had a fan-favorite player get eliminated by default with Cirie in Game Changers. We had a tribal in Second Chance where idols negated every vote. But some instances or occurrences have never happened in Survivor history. With all the new advantages and the numerous idols put into play by the showrunners, not only are some of these things likely to happen, but I think they (Jeff included) want them to happen.
10. A "No Vote" Tribal Council
One thing I'm not a fan of in recent seasons is how easy it is to lose your vote. In fact, in Season 44, just going to the summit meant you lost your vote, unless you got lucky and succeeded in that 1/3 shot of getting an advantage. It's so dumb. Anyway, with how easy it is to lose your vote, and with shots in the dark, and with how small tribes can get, I feel like a "no vote" tribal council may happen someday. I'm sure they have a plan in place for this, but this "dramatic moment" would feel so contrived, as do a lot of them in recent seasons. And by a "no vote" tribal council, I do not mean a tribal council where all votes are negated. That's happened before. I mean a tribal council where everyone present has lost their vote or chooses to lose their vote. Very unlikely, but it's theoretically possible.
9. A plurality tie at Final Tribal Council
I have a feeling this could happen in 44 (Spoiler alert: It does not). But given three finalists, a tie with a plurality vote is certainly possible. With 8 jurors like 44 has, we could see a 3-3-2 final vote. Or if they had 9 jurors, a 4-4-1, or do I even say a 3-3-3? We've seen a tie before in Ghost Island, but in that case, Laurel did not receive a vote and ended up casting the tie-breaking vote. So if there's a 3-3-2 tie, how is it broken? Do the 2 people who voted for the 3rd place person and the 3rd place person themself break the tie? We may get that answer someday.
8. "Everyone's Safe" Tribal Council
This is what I think Jeff and the producers want most. A tribal council where everyone is safe via immunity, idol, advantage, or shot in the dark. We were close to it with the Cirie elimination in Game Changers. But what would happen here? They just vote out two people next time? Everyone's safety cancels out and gets removed? Draw rocks? They fight for it?
7. Someone puts themselves into final 4 fire making and loses
We've seen it only once before where the player who won final immunity put themselves into fire: Chris in Edge of Extinction. He won his fire-making duel with Rick Devens and then won the game. A few others have considered attempting it, some of them regretting not doing so. I think we will see (and likely soon) someone put themselves into fire, but lose. It's become a running trend that winning fire-making looks a lot better to the jury. This would happen when someone needs a boost to their resumé and knows they have no shot at winning without it.
Update: Heidi in 44 put herself into fire making, but won the fire making over Carson. However, she still did not win the game, the first to put themselves into fire making but lose the game.
6. Multiple fake idols played at one tribal council
Hard as it may seem, we've never seen multiple fake idols be attempted to be played at the same tribal council. For the first time in 44, producers made and introduced fake idols into the game. In the past, players always had to make them themselves. I think we may soon see a tribal council where someone attempts to play an idol but it turns out to be fake, and someone else attempts the same, feeling like there is no way theirs could be fake as well.
5. A player gets all the way to the end without ever having been vulnerable at a tribal council
I'm sure there have been a few players who have been somewhat close. But this may never happen. However, it theoretically is possible that a player gets all the way to the end without having been eligible to be voted for. Their starting tribe would have to win every immunity, and they'd have to win individual immunity or be separated into a group that doesn't go to tribal every vote until the Final 3. This person would have to be godlike at challenges. They'd have to be smart with puzzles and athletic for endurance challenges. I wonder if this ever happened, would this make a jury want to vote for them or not?
4. A rock draw on a plurality tie
We've seen some rock draws in Survivor history, from Marquesas to Blood vs. Water to Millennials vs. Gen X. But we've never seen one when there's been a three-way tie (or more). I believe Survivor has had a three-way tie before, but it's always been resolved on the revote. You'd think perhaps there'd be a tribe of 6 people with three twosomes, the twosomes all targeting three different people. But generally, two pairs of twosomes get together to target one of the two odd people out. Or, if a tribe has three people, each one targeting someone else. I thought we might've seen that on Tika in 44 when they had just Caroline, Joshua, and Yam-Yam.
3. Someone gives someone their immunity necklace who then in turn plays an idol for them
I just think this would be a cute moment if it ever happened. Two players close in the game, both of whom would be vulnerable. One has individual immunity, but they decide to see if they can throw off the opposition and they give their immunity to their ally. Said ally then plays an idol they happen to have on the first player. This has never happened before, since the second player could just play their idol, but I'd still love to see it for the drama and fireworks. Plus, it's something players would have to come up with, not the producers.
2. A player votes out someone with their idol
Let me explain. In 44, we saw the introduction of the "Control a Vote" where Heidi got to control Lauren's vote. Also, players loan idols all the time, namely in recent years to avoid the Knowledge is Power advantage. This could mean someone is forced to vote out someone who has their idol. That would just be such a kick in the nuts.
1. A rock draw for $1 million?!
Even with a final three, a deadlock tribal council is possible. I believe, for this reason, the show tries to avoid a jury size that is a multiple of 3 (namely 9). I don't believe they've had a jury where the final 3 could've each gotten the same number of votes. But I could be wrong. But surely they must have something in place for this in case it happens. For example, in Winners at War, what if one more person had left the Edge (joining Sandra in doing so), and the 15 jurors split their votes 5-5-5 between Tony, Natalie, and Michele? Surely they wouldn't do a rock draw for $1 million, right? I guess they'd have the jury talk it over until they came to a consensus. Or possibly re-vote until someone gets the majority.
BONUS (Unlikely): A juror that never casts a vote
We saw in 44 how Matt got to the jury, despite the only time he ever cast a vote being the time he got voted out. Well, with how much the producers love taking people's votes away in mind (and the Shot in the Dark), we could see a juror on Survivor who never casts a vote, not even for a winner. This could only happen if they re-introduced the "Remove a Juror" advantage, as seen in Kaoh Rong. That was only introduced because of the med-evacs and needing an extra challenge, but I feel like we potentially could see it again. Imagine, you get on the jury, but you don't get to cast a vote all game. We will probably see a juror at some point that the first time they put pen to paper is for the winner.
Monday, April 3, 2023
My Preferred 2023 Seahawks Draft (And review of the actual draft)
In BOLD, I say where the player listed ended up getting drafted. Some of these I was quite far off on. Oops.
Round 1, Pick 5: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
I think the Cardinals take Will Anderson to help their pass rush (or someone trades up to get him). I also think Jalen Carter falls a bit in this draft, and I actually believe we pass on him. Tyree Wilson is a bit of a reach at 5, but that's nothing new to the Hawks. Charles Cross was a slight reach at 9 as well last year. Let's just hope whoever we take here does better than the last defensive player we took at least this high, Aaron Curry in 2009.
Tyree ended up going #7 to the Raiders. We ended up taking Devon Witherspoon. It'll be interesting to see who has the better career. I'll say this: Witherspoon is going to the better organization than Wilson.
Round 1, Pick 20: Siaki Ika, NT, Baylor
The Seahawks pass on Jalen Carter, hoping he maybe falls to 20, but he does not. So instead, they take Siaki Ika from Baylor. He's heavier than the DT's they usually draft, but he's about the same size as other DT's the Hawks have had over the years, like Bryan Mone and Al Woods. The Hawks definitely need a nose tackle to replace Al Woods, who was cut, so they likely spend one of their earlier picks on one.
Oh boy. I was off. Siaki ended up going pick 98 in round 3 to the Browns. I saw he could've been first round talent, and we know the Hawks have reached in the past. The Hawks ended up taking Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who I'll definitely look forward to all the misspellings of his names by Seahawks fans on Reddit, Facebook, etc. I prefer the Hawk's actual pick (actually), and I think JSN will have a better career than Ika.
Round 2, Pick 37: John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota
Yes, even with the signing of Evan Brown, the Seahawks could use another center. And I expect them to take one with one of their 2nd round picks, if not their 20th overall pick. Better to not wait, so I have them spending the first of their two second-round picks on the highest-graded center, John Michael Schmitz from Minnesota. Carroll and Schneider still long for the days of Max Unger, so they know they need a good stalwart at center. They badly missed out on Creed Humphrey, selecting D'Wayne Eskridge instead (Ouch). They won't make the same mistake (I hope).
The Hawks instead took Derick Hall, defensive end. I wish we had taken JMS, who ended up going to the Giants at pick 57. If he becomes an all-pro like Creed Humphrey, I might lose it. I'm not particularly excited about Hall, seeing as we've yet to really develop an edge rusher... ever. Ok, Frank Clark is one, but there's an exception to every rule.
Round 2, Pick 52: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State
This is where I could see the Hawks trading down, especially if they've addressed their immediate needs (DL, interior OL/C). I know Carroll loves his speedy linebackers, and why not take a local kid in Daiyan Henley from WSU? I know we signed Devin Bush and Bobby Wagner, but I guarantee Bush will have competition. We'll need depth there, anyway, with Bush's injury history and with Brooks missing the start of the season.
The Hawks instead took Zach Charbonnet, running back. I wish we had grabbed the local kid in Henley. The Hawks in fact did not take any pure linebacker in the draft (if you don't count Hall or Morris as one). Henley went #85 to the Chargers. So we could've had him, just like Schmitz.
Round 3, Pick 83: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss
Hmmmm... drafting a bigger wide receiver from Ole Miss on Day 2? Well, it worked out for the Seahawks once before with DK Metcalf, so why not try again? I'm sure DK would love to work with Mingo and mentor him. The Hawks have been looking for a legit #3 for years, and I think they'll try to find it in the draft.
We did draft a receiver (JSN), but all the way up at #20. The Hawks traded down to 108 and took Anthony Bradford, guard. Mingo went #39 to the Panthers, so we wouldn't have had a shot to get him, at least not here.
Round 4, Pick 123: J.L. Skinner, S, Boise State
Maybe PC/JS are trying to rebuild the Legion of Boom. They already have their Richard Sherman clone in Woolen. What about a Kam Chancellor clone? Granted, Skinner is a bit on the skinny side, but he could bulk up, I bet. I just bet Carroll would love his 6'4" frame. We do have Adams and Love, but Adams is injury prone. And Love is a newcomer, so it's yet to be seen how he'll fit in. If they are able to get Skinner to bulk up enough, he could move to linebacker.
Instead the Hawks drafted Cameron Young, defensive tackle. I felt like they should've taken one sooner, but what do I know? Skinner went all the way at 183 to the Broncos. So I was off again.
Round 5, Pick 151: Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas
Roschon's vertical isn't particularly ideal, but I think PC/JS might take a running back mid-late in the draft who is larger and can withstand some hits. Roschon is 6'0" 219 lbs, so he'd be a nice contrast to the smaller Kenneth Walker.
Roschon went at 115 to the Bears, so earlier than I thought. Instead of us drafting a mid-round RB, we drafted an early one (#52, Charbonnet) and a late one (#237, McIntosh). Here we drafted Mike Morris, defensive end.
Round 5, Pick 154: Yaya Diaby, Edge, Louisville
You think PC/JS would be happy with just Tyree Wilson? Maybe... but I could also see them taking someone else as a project, such as Yaya Diaby. One, I like his name. And two, he seems to have all the measurables. He also just seems like a PC/JS kind of guy based on his name and personality.
Unfortunately, we didn't get Diaby, who I would've love saying the name of. He went #82 to the Buccaneers, so I was way off. Instead, we drafted Olusegun Oluwatimi, whose name I'm going to have to learn how to spell correctly without looking up... someday. I'm totally fine with that change. Rumor is that the Hawks were thinking about taking Diaby at #83, but the Bucs sniped him away from us, so the Hawks traded down.
Round 6, Pick 198: Tre Tucker, WR, Cincinnati
The Hawks may draft two receivers (almost a guarantee to draft at least one), and I could see Tre Tucker coming to us. He's got decent speed, so he could compete with Dee Eskridge for a spot on the roster. The Hawks could use an underneath speedy guy to emerge.
We did not draft a second WR, but we did draft a safety like I thought. Just a bit later than I thought. Tucker ended up going #100 to the Raiders, so again I was way off. The Hawks went with Jerrick Reed, safety, instead. I'm okay with that.
Round 7, Pick 237: Cameron Mitchell, CB, Northwestern
The Hawks may take a corner to see if they can one day be our nickel. Mitchell has the speed and measurables that line up. This could be any position here, but I decided to go with something the Hawks hadn't taken yet.
Funny how the Browns and Raiders took a combined four players that I liked. Mitchell went at 142 to the Browns, so again just so far off. We took Kenny McIntosh, who I love and I think has a good chance of making the roster.
I didn't get any players that the Hawks ended up taking (damn). But I'll say this: I think I prefer the Seahawks draft over the one I had them take. It's close. I would've loved John Michael Schmitz, but if Oluwatimi ends up being as good (or better) than JMS, this draft was an absolute win.
Well, there you have it! I'd be stoked with this draft. Here's what a 53-man roster would look like with this draft:
QB (2) - Geno Smith, Drew Lock
RB (5) - Kenneth Walker III, Deejay Dallas, Roschon Johnson, FA (Undrafted?), Nick Bellore
WR (6) - Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Jonathan Mingo, Dareke Young, 2 of the 3 of D'Wayne Eskridge/Cade Johnson/Tre Tucker
TE (3) - Noah Fant, Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson
OL (9) - Charles Cross, Abraham Lucas, Jake Curhan, Stone Forsythe, Phil Haynes, Damien Lewis, Evan Brown, John Michael Schmitz, Joey Hunt
DL (5) - Dre'Mont Jones, Bryan Mone, Siaki Ika, Jarran Reed, Myles Adams
Edge (4) - Tyree Wilson, Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor/Yaya Diaby
LB (6) - Bobby Wagner, Devin Bush, Daiyan Henley, Alton Robinson, Tyreke Smith, Vi Jones
CB (5) - Tariq Woolen, Mike Jackson, Coby Bryant, Tre Brown, Cameron Mitchell/Artie Burns
S (5) - Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Julian Love, J.L. Skinner, Joey Blount
ST (3): Jason Myers (K), Michael Dickson (P), Ott/Tinker (LS)
And unlike last year, I'm going to give a quick comment on each position and how they shape up.
QB: Two QB's under contract. Might bring in someone for pre-season, but they likely get cut.
RB: Hawks almost guaranteed to draft one, they'll need someone to replace Penny/Homer. Might have a surprise UFA make the team here.
WR: A draft pick, possibly two make the team.
OL: Starting five would be Cross, Lewis, Schmitz, Haynes, and Lucas.
DL: Ika and Mone are the more traditional nose tackles/run stuffers. The rest are used in pass situations.
Edge: Three of four likely are first or second round picks (this year or in year's past), plus a big FA last year in Nwosu.
LB: Brooks will be on the shelf early on, so I expect the starting 'backers to be a combo of Bush, Wagner, and a draft pick (Henley?).
CB: Honestly, they'll probably draft a CB higher than what I said, but it is what it is.
S: With Neal seemingly on his way out, we will need a safety, especially if we adopt 3 safety sets like it is rumored.
ST: Same as last year.
So, there you have it! It'll be interesting to see if we end up taking any of the guys above. I'll come back after the draft and mention who we took instead and who ended up taking the guy I wanted.
Monday, March 27, 2023
2023 Outlook for Seattle Mariners Players
The 2023 MLB season starts this Thursday, and while I've already made my predictions for the season, I have yet to talk in-depth about my favorite team, the Seattle Mariners. I'm going to go through each of the players expected to make the Opening Day Roster and say what I expect from them. I'm later going to use these expectations and give them grades at the All-Star break and at the end of the season.
PITCHERS
Matt Brash:
I expect Brash to have an improved 2023, becoming one of our more dominant relievers. I'd love to see him either be THE guy we use to face tough bats, or be a guy we can stretch out to 2 innings if need be.
Luis Castillo:
Luis will be in his first full season as a Mariner, and he'll be our #1. I expect Luis to keep us in a lot of low-scoring ball games (think that extra innings game against the Yankees last year). I would love to see an All-Star nod for him, but not making it wouldn't be the biggest disappointment, either.
Diego Castillo:
All I want is control from Diego from start to finish. Now he's going to get wild at times, but his games where he loses control need to be few and far between. And we cannot afford him to go on streaks (like he did at the start of last year) where his ERA is in the double digits.
Matt Festa:
Festa's a good, all-around reliever and I hope he stays that way. He's like Brash but without as nasty of stuff. I'd love to see him close a game or two.
Chris Flexen:
It looks like Flexen will start the year in the pen, but will fill in as a starter when necessary (double-headers, injuries, etc.). This will be HUGE. As long as Flex doesn't let when or how he's pitching affect him, I'd look for him to be one of our more important pitchers this season. He could also be a very valuable trade piece at the deadline.
Logan Gilbert:
Logan started out red-hot last April. I was thinking Cy Young. But alas, he cooled off. I'm not expecting Logan to be THAT good, but to be near it and to be near it for longer would be ideal. Imagine if Logan shows some overall signs of improvement, and is only the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on our team? Wow...
Marco Gonzales:
Because of the acquisition of pitching and promoting through the minors, Marco has gone from our #1 to our #5 in just three seasons. Crazy. And he's handled it like the ultimate professional. I expect Marco to be one of the league's best #5 starters, consistently putting out quality (or near quality) starts of 6IP, 3 runs or less.
Trevor Gott:
I'm not expecting a ton from Gott, a newcomer. I just don't want him to suck. Be on par with Festa and Castillo, and I'll be happy.
George Kirby:
Kirby arrived after Gilbert, but his ceiling is higher. I expect George to improve on 2022 and be our second best pitcher (if not best) in his first FULL season (he started in May last season). I wouldn't be surprised to see an All-Star nod for George, which would be reason to give him an A at the break.
Andres Munoz:
It'll be interesting to see how Servais handles Munoz this season. Hopefully he doesn't put too much on him, like he seemed to do in the playoffs. If Munoz's stuff can be just as lethal as last season, I'll be happy.
Penn Murfee:
Unfortunately Penn had the distinction of being the pitcher that allowed the Astros go-ahead home run in the 18th inning of game 3 of the ALDS. I don't think too many fans hold a grudge against him. I hope he can shake that and that it doesn't affect how he pitches in 2023.
Robbie Ray:
Robbie has been working on a new pitch, I believe. We need him to have a better 2023 than he did 2022. He doesn't need to be a Cy Young candidate, just someone good enough to be in our Top 3 starters (which he wasn't last year).
Paul Sewald:
Sewald was our defacto closer last season, and he wasn't perfect, but he was solid. I hope some of the burden is taken off of his shoulders and he's given some lower-impact innings.
CATCHERS
Tom Murphy:
The Murph is back! He was our starter, but now he'll be backing up The Big Dumper. I expect Murph to put up solid numbers and start at least 40-60 games, hopefully.
Cal Raleigh:
The Big Dumper had such a great 2022 season, the highlight of course being his playoff-clinching walk-off home run. If he can improve his average slightly and still hit dingers, I'll be happy.
INFIELDERS
J.P. Crawford:
J.P. has had up-and-down seasons the last few years. I hope his average can climb (with the ban of the shift) and he can hit well from the bottom of the lineup. I hope he hits well enough for Servais to consider moving him up to 1 or 2, but I won't hold my breath. I also want his defense to improve well enough to earn him a Gold Glove nomination.
Ty France:
Let's have a season where Ty plays fully healthy, ok? The bigger bases will help with avoiding collisions. I do expect Ty to have a great year if he can stay healthy. A repeat All-Star appearance would be great, but the Mariners haven't had many of those in recent memory.
Eugenio Suarez:
Suarez had as great of season as we could've hoped in 2022. I hope him playing in the WBC doesn't mean he tires out at the end of the year. If he can continue to be a force in the middle of our lineup, I'll be happy.
Kolten Wong:
Wong is more of a defensive player than an offensive powerhouse, so I won't be counting on his bat too much. But I would love to see his average jump a bit from last season. I'm also looking forward to all the sweet double plays he and J.P. will turn.
OUTFIELDERS
Sam Haggerty:
"Swaggerty" was a vital tool for Servais last season, and I hope he continues to be. We will likely see him take over for Hernandez in the outfield late in games (like he did for Winker last year). I also hope to see him play some more second base, a position he is capable of handling.
Teoscar Hernandez:
Teoscar will hopefully be a force in the middle of our lineup, much like Suarez last season. I'm looking forward to seeing him playing alongside his DR countryman in Julio. Hopefully his defense won't be a liability and we'll see some clutch knocks from him.
Jarred Kelenic:
Listen, JK seems to be as ready as ever. He had a FANTASTIC spring. He seems focused and locked in. We know he has speed, defense, and a cannon arm. If he can hit above .200 (.220+?) and hit dingers, (on pace for 20-30), he will be a consistent starter. There's nothing more Mariner fans want than to see JK succeed in a big way.
AJ Pollock:
AJ will likely start against lefties in left field, giving Kelenic a breather every now and then. He also might get a start at DH if no one else needs it. I hope he can provide a veteran bat, hit somewhat decently, and give Servais a reason to keep him in the lineup.
Julio Rodriguez:
Man, what a year he had last season. Can we expect bigger things in 2023? Why not? Julio is the face of this team, and we are counting on him to be an even bigger force in 2023. Provided he plays decently, a repeat 2023 All-Star appearance is a given, considering he is now a household name.
Well, there you have it. I know I didn't get too much into numbers, but I didn't want to just to get disappointed. I know I also didn't predict them to make the playoffs, but if most of these guys can meet my reasonable expectations for them, I see no reason why they cannot prove me wrong. I'm stoked and I'm looking forward to a great 2023 season. GO MARINERS!!!!