My Seahawks Journey and Extensive Super Bowl Prediction

Hey guys, I first want to start out by apologizing for the long delay in between blog posts.  I've been busy and really haven't felt the need or want to write about something.  Anyway, here we are in 2014 and the Seahawks have made it to their second ever Super Bowl.  What a great season they have had, and hopefully it ends on a high note.  I'm going to talk about my life as a Seahawk fan for a bit, how I became a Seahawks fan and certain notable games I remember, and then it will all lead up to my predictions for the Super Bowl, which will include an interesting analogy. 

The first Seahawks season that I can remember was 1999, the last season in the Kingdome.  The Seahawks went 9-7 that year, winning the AFC West Division Championship and earning their first playoff trip since 1988.  I got into the Seahawks around that time because I had just gotten into watching sports (including the Mariners and Sonics), but also because of my dad.  Before I was born, my dad would record every Seahawks game on VHS, but had to stop once me and my sister were born.  I remember watching one of the games he recorded.  He eventually gave the tapes of the games to Seahawks and Seattle sports super fan, Lorin Sandretzky, also known as "Big Lo". 

I even went to a few games in Husky Stadium while Seahawks Stadium (which eventually became Qwest Field which became CenturyLink Field) was being built.  I saw the Seahawks lose to the Broncos, but I also saw the Hawks cream the Raiders on Sunday Night Football, in which Shaun Alexander got a team record 266 yards rushing.  I feel after that game I really fell in love with the Seahawks. 

After 1999, the Seahawks still remained in mediocrity until 2003, when they made the playoffs again.  I remember watching that playoff game against the Packers in the freezing cold, when the game went into overtime.  Matt Hasselbeck infamously declared, "We want the ball, we're gonna score".  He then proceeded to throw a pick six to Al Harris to seal the win for the Packers.  The Seahawks made the playoffs the following year, but lost to the Rams at home in the playoffs, which also happens to be the last time the Seahawks lost a home playoff game. 

The following year, of course, was the Seahawks Super Bowl season.  I was so hung up on every game that every loss left me devastated and depressed for the next week.  After the Super Bowl loss to the Steelers, I was so upset that I smashed every one of my Steelers miniature helmets I had at the time.

The remaining Seahawks players made the playoffs a few more times, but never mustered any real playoff run.  Then the Seahawks had a few bad seasons, which eventually led to them hiring Pete Carroll.  Pete and John Schneider, the GM, have put together arguably the best roster in Seahawks history.  Now they are one win away from the team's first ever Super Bowl title. 

I haven't let myself get hung up on games this year like in years past.  Just last season, when the Seahawks playoff run ended in a loss to the Falcons, I remember feeling so hopeless for the team, thinking that was our only shot.  But now, the following season, the Seahawks have gotten to the final game.  But for this game, I'm not going to let it affect me as much as others if we lose.  It helps to have a team and quarterback as opposition that I'm both a fan of.  I can never hate the Broncos or Peyton Manning, because they're both a big reason why I became a bigger fan of football than anything else.  If the Seahawks lose, it's not the end of the world, nor is it the end of their run. 

Now, for predictions.  At the start of the football season, way back in August, I predicted a Super Bowl matchup between the Broncos and Seahawks, and look how right I was.  Sure, I missed on a few playoff teams (Oops on Texans, Ravens, Falcons, Giants, and Rams), but I got the end result correct.  Now, I predicted a final score of 27-24 Broncos.  But that was when I thought our defense would have a bit of a down year with a new defensive coordinator.  So, let's go over what I think will really happen:

First quarter:
Seahawks win toss--defer to second half
-Manning and Broncos slowed by weather, punt on first possession.
-Wilson and Seahawks go 3 and out, which is something we've grown used to seeing over the past couple months.
-Broncos get decent field position thanks to a good punt return by Decker, but settle for a field goal.
- Seahawks get ball and are driving as quarter ends.
After one quarter: DEN-3, SEA-0

Second quarter:
- Seahawks drive to red zone, but a fumbled exchange between Lynch and Wilson gives the ball to the Broncos.
- Peyton Manning finds Demaryius Thomas for a long bomb, scoring the game's first TD.
- Seahawks drive again, thanks to some good runs by Lynch, but have to settle for a field goal.
- Broncos get stopped on some pass deflections by the Legion of Boom.
- Seahawks get ball back, but have to settle for a sizeable field goal try, which Hauschka misses to end the half.
After two quarters: DEN-10, SEA-3

Third quarter:
- Seahawks go 3 and out to start the half.
- Broncos drive to the red zone, but Manning is stripped by Cliff Avril and the Seahawks recover.
- Wilson finds Golden Tate on a 40 yard strike, which eventually sets up a Lynch touchdown to tie the game.
- On Manning's first pass of the next drive, Byron Maxwell steps in front of a pass and returns it for a TD.
After three quarters: DEN-10, SEA-17

Fourth quarter:
- Manning and the Broncos go on a methodical drive, getting chunks of short passes and eventually get a Julius Thomas TD.
- Seahawks get to 40 yard line, go for it on 4th down, but can't convert. 
- Broncos drive and get to a 4th and 1, but with the conditions and without a strong running game they have to kick a field goal, which Matt Prater does.
- Seahawks get the ball back, but are stopped on 3rd down near midfield.  Carroll decides to punt and Jon Ryan is able to pin the Broncos at the 10, with about 3 minutes to go.
- Manning and the offense is stuffed, but they take the time down to 2 minutes.  They punt it away to Tate, who muffs it at first but then recovers and gets a few yards. 
- Seahawks get a clutch pass to Doug Baldwin, which is a tiptoe sideline catch on third down, which many people will then say is one of the best Super Bowl catches ever.  The Seahawks run out of downs, however, and settle for a game tying field goal.  Broncos take their remaining timeouts to keep time on the clock, but once they get the ball decide to just kneel.
After four quarters: DEN-20, SEA-20

That's right, the first ever Super Bowl to go into overtime!
Overtime:
- Seahawks lose the toss, which is fine with them because of their D.
- Broncos get the ball, and a pass is tipped and intercepted by Earl Thomas, who returns it to the Broncos 40!
- Seahawks get a first down with a few Lynch runs, and set up a game winning field goal try from the 22.  Hauschka makes it, and the Seahawks win one of the most dramatic Super Bowls in history.
FINAL SCORE: DEN-20, SEA-23
MVP: Marshawn Lynch, 21-105, 1 TD

I think if the above were to happen many Seahawks fans would die of heart failure.  Anything's possible, though.  Before I wrap up, an analogy like I promised:

Their once was a team with a great defense. Maybe even better than great.  They had talent at every level on the defense.  Their offense was above average and usually good enough to get them enough points to win.  Sound familiar?  No, this isn't the Seahawks.  This team I'm talking about had a good running game as well, and some receivers that weren't All-Pro but made the big catches when it mattered.  Their quarterback wasn't even a Pro Bowler, but he was good enough. 

This team made it all the way to the Super Bowl as a representative for the NFC.  They had the best defense in the league, and maybe, one of the best defenses ever, with two already having gone to the Hall of Fame.  In the Super Bowl, they faced the team with the #1 offense and the League MVP at Quarterback.  But in the Super Bowl, they stopped this #1 offense by getting FIVE interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  This team?  The 2002-2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  They beat the #1 offense of the Raiders and MVP Rich Gannon in Super Bowl XXXVII by a score of 48-21.  All I'm saying is that if the Buccaneers can do it, so can the Seahawks.  Sure, Peyton Manning might be a step or two above Rich Gannon, but now is the time to shine as a defense, just like the Buccaneers did.  This was also the last time the #1 offense and #1 defense met in the Super Bowl.

So, let's hope the Seahawks can repeat what the Buccaneers did.  Let's hope for the first major sports championship in this city in 35 years.  Let's hope for a Seahawks Super Bowl Title!  GO HAWKS!!!

My Thoughts on Amanda's Move Up Here

Amanda will be moving up here in about a week, so it's time I give my thoughts on it.  All I can say first off is that it's about time.  We've been in a long distance relationship for four years, and it's about time something happened.  We love each other and we had to see what a regular relationship would be like between us.

The reason she's moving up here and not me moving down there... well there are a few of them.  One, she is more financially able to do the move.  She makes more money per hour than I do.  Two, we agreed that Washington is a much better place to live than California.  Washington's weather is calmer, the people are nicer, and traffic isn't quite as bad (usually).  Also, Amanda is more comfortable here than when I am in California. 

The move will hopefully happen smoothly.  We will be driving a Pennske truck all the way up I-5 North, about 750 miles worth.  We'll stop in Oregon for one night so we don't put too much strain on ourselves or the truck.  All the while we will be towing her car behind us so she can have it up here.  We've done a long driving trip before, when we drove from the Bay Area all the way to Los Angeles/Anaheim.  This is certainly going to be a taxing trip on both of us, but we both know that in the end, it's worth it.

This is something that I've wanted to have happen for a long time.  I've never even really been in a normal non-long distance relationship.  It will probably take some getting used to and I can't wait for Amanda to adjust to life here and start at our store and make new friends.  I truly feel she will love Washington.  We will of course visit her family whenever we can, perhaps for the Christmas season later this year. 

I can't wait for this to happen, but more importantly, I can't wait for the move and everything to be over.  I can't wait until Amanda' s transfer has fully gone through and she has a job here, and I can't wait until she finds a place that fits her, and I can't wait until she possibly gets a new car.  I will do my best to help her out with each of those.  There will be an adjustment period for us, but we've always adjusted well to new situations. 

I know she's a bit anxious for the move, but to be honest, so am I.  There's a lot of things I'm worried about for her.  I still feel like there are many things that could go wrong.  That's just me though.  I'm a worry-wart.  I know in the end, even if things go wrong, that it will be all right in the end.  Now let's get this move started!  I'm tired of waiting.

My extensive 2013 NFL and Seahawks Predictions!

Hey everyone!  Football season for the 2013 season is about to start, so it's time to predict some things for the upcoming season.  Usually, I do two separate blog posts for the Seahawks predictions and the NFL Predictions, but this time, I'm combining it into one big MEGA post!  First up will be Seahawks predictions.  I will predict a score for each game, as well as some backstory to it.

Week 1: @ Carolina Panthers
Loss, 21-16
Record: 0-1
We scored 16 points last year against the Panthers, and I predict we do the same, but we give up more points.  Cam Newton will be hungry for revenge, and I don't think he'll let his team lose to us twice in a row on their own field.  Should be close throughout, but I see the Seahawks getting off to another slow start.

Week 2: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Win, 31-30
Record: 1-1
Has there ever been a more hyped regular season game in Seattle sports history?  We're going to try to break a world record for crowd noise.  I don't think this game will disappoint.  The 49ers will more than likely put up more of a fight this time, but they'll come up just short.  Should be an exciting game.

Week 3: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Win, 38-10
Record: 2-1
If there is a game on the Seahawk's schedule you can pencil in as a win right now, it's this one.  The Jaguars are still in rebuilding mode, not having much of a team or fan base at the moment.  This is a must-win, especially if the Seahawks lose either or both of the first two games.

Week 4: @ Houston Texans
Loss, 17-14
Record: 2-2
I expect this to be a low-scoring defensive battle with two of the NFL's best defenses going against each other.  But I see the Texans coming out on top given the 10am start time that we have forever struggled with.

Week 5: @ Indianapolis Colts
Loss, 30-28
Record: 2-3
The Seahawks drop to 2-3 and fans start to panic.  In this game, I see perhaps the Seahawks taking a lead, but Andrew Luck leading a last-second scoring drive to win the game.  Our defense still hasn't proven it can stop an above average QB in the last minutes of a game.

Week 6: vs. Tennessee Titans
Win, 34-6
Record: 3-3
I expect our defense to absolutely spoil Jake Locker's homecoming.  This is the game I expect our D to really shine.  This is another game like the Jaguars game that is a no-brainer must-win, especially if we start out 2-3 like I predict.

Week 7: @ Arizona Cardinals
Win, 24-17
Record: 4-3
This isn't a game I expect us to play our cleanest in, but I expect a win nonetheless.  We can't lose in Arizona two years in a row.  We need this divisional win.  The Cardinals should be better with Carson Palmer, but he's no Peyton Manning. 

Week 8: @ St. Louis Rams
Loss, 21-20
Record: 4-4
With the 11 days of rest after the Thursday night game, I could see a letdown performance from the Hawks.  Should be a close game, but to win two divisional road games in a row is tough.  This game is a tossup, but I feel the Rams will be a dark horse in the NFL next season.

Week 9: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win, 27-16
Record: 5-4
Again, making a Florida team fly all the way up here.  Shouldn't be too tough of a win.  We just have to contain Doug Martin and the Bucs' running game. 

Week 10: @ Atlanta Falcons
Win, 28-21
Record: 6-4
This will be like the Bears game last season.  The game that turns the season around.  The Hawks will be so hungry for revenge from last year's playoff loss.  This is the one upset I pick for the Hawks.  And this starts the run.

Week 11: vs. Minnesota Vikings
Win, 24-17
Record: 7-4
The key to this game: Stopping Adrian Peterson.  I think the Hawks will need to win this game to secure a good position in the playoffs.  Might have a tiebreaker with the Vikes.  Shouldn't be too big of a blowout, but a lot could change before then.

Week 13: vs. New Orleans Saints
Loss, 28-24
Record: 7-5
I hate to do this, but I do believe the Seahawks will lose a home game next season.  The Saints are going to be a much improved team next season, getting Sean Payton back as head coach.  I could see us underestimating the Saints and possibly making a few mental mistakes.  I'm just worried about what Brees could do against us, even against our league best secondary.

Week 14: @ San Francisco 49ers
Win, 20-16
Record: 8-5
This is probably the game that will decide the division winner.  I can't remember the last time we won in San Francisco.  I think by this point something will have happened to the 49ers that will really hurt their chances.  I'm going with the Hawks.

Week 15: @ New York Giants
Win, 30-24
Record: 9-5
We beat the New York Giants in New York when we had T-Jack and Whitehurst as quarterbacks.  Russell Wilson should be able to get the job done as well.  If the Seahawks are 7-6 heading into this game, they'll be hungry for W.

Week 16: vs. Arizona Cardinals
Win, 31-13
Record: 10-5
I don't think we'll score 58 points like last time, but it should still be an easy win.  This is a must-win game if the Hawks don't have the division locked up at this point.

Week 17: vs. St. Louis Rams
Win, 24-23
Record: 11-5
The Rams never make it easy on us, nor the 49ers for that matter.  But again, another must-win if the Hawks aren't into 12 or 13 win territory by the start of this game. 

FINAL RECORD: 11-5

Let's get some predictions in for team leaders.  I'm going to assume the passing leader for every category will be Russell Wilson and the rushing leader for every category will be Marshawn Lynch.  So here's who I think will lead other categories:

Receptions leader: Doug Baldwin
Receiving yards: Golden Tate
Receiving touchdowns: Golden Tate
Tackles: Bobby Wagner
Sacks: Cliff Avril
Interceptions: Earl Thomas

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Now, onto the NFL.  Will the Seahawks win the division?  How will the rest of the NFL do?  Look below to find out:

*= Wild card berth

AFC West:
Denver Broncos: 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8
San Diego Chargers: 7-9
Oakland Raiders: 6-10

AFC North:
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-5
Baltimore Ravens: 10-6*
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7
Cleveland Browns: 5-11

AFC South:
Houston Texans: 12-4
Indianapolis Colts: 10-6*
Tennessee Titans: 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-13

AFC East:
New England Patriots: 10-6
Miami Dolphins: 9-7
Buffalo Bills: 8-8
New York Jets: 5-11

NFC West:
Seattle Seahawks: 11-5
St. Louis Rams: 10-6*
San Francisco 49ers: 8-8 (The 49ers, with their season full of promise, lose Colin Kaepernick to injury and are forced to go with Colt McCoy for the rest of the season.)
Arizona Cardinals: 6-10

NFC North:
Green Bay Packers: 11-5
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7
Detroit Lions: 9-7
Chicago Bears: 7-9

NFC South:
New Orleans Saints: 12-4
Atlanta Falcons: 10-6*
Carolina Panthers: 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9

NFC East:
New York Giants: 9-7 (Win tiebreaker)
Washington Redskins: 9-7
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8
Philadelphia Eagles: 7-9

Awards:
MVP: Peyton Manning, Broncos
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Defensive Player of the Year: Earl Thomas, Seattle Seahawks
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Montee Ball, Denver Broncos
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Kenny Vaccaro, New Orleans Saints
Coach of the Year: Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
Comeback Player of the Year: Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders

Playoff Seadings
AFC:
1. Houston Texans
2. Denver Broncos
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. New England Patriots
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. Baltimore Ravens

NFC:
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Green Bay Packers
4. New York Giants
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. St. Louis Rams

Wild Card Playoffs
AFC:
(6) Ravens at (3) Bengals: Ravens win
(5) Colts at (4) Patriots: Patriots win
NFC:
(6) Rams at (3) Packers: Packers win
(5) Falcons at (4) Giants: Falcons win

Divisional Round Playoffs
AFC:
(6) Ravens at (1) Texans: Ravens win
(4) Patriots at (2) Broncos: Broncos win

NFC:
(5) Falcons at (1) Saints: Saints win
(3) Packers at (2) Seahawks: Seahawks win

Conference Championship Games:
(6) Ravens at (2) Broncos: Broncos win
(2) Seahawks at (1) Saints: Seahawks win

Super Bowl XLVIII in New York:
Broncos 27, Seahawks 24
MVP: Peyton Manning, Broncos

Well, there you have it folks.  The season ending in complete heartbreak.  I just see the experience of Peyton Manning overcoming the youthfulness of Russell Wilson.  But, with the Seahawks still young it just gives them more motivation for next year.  I'd love to see the Seahawks in next year's Super Bowl, regardless of the outcome.  So, here's to 2013, and a successful Seahawks season.  Go Hawks!

All of the Careers I have ever considered and why I haven't done them

Right now, I am at a point in my life where I need to figure out what I want to do for a career.  I currently work at Safeway as a food clerk, but I can't work there forever (unless I decided I wanted to be a manager there).  One of the things I get from my mother is not knowing what I want to do with my life for a career.  She got a job as an 18 year old with a telephone company (Pacific Northwest Bell which became US-West which became Qwest which became Century Link).  She worked there for about 30 years.  I know I don't wanna be stuck in the same job for 30 years, and I do plan on going back to school, but what for?  Here's a look at what I've considered for careers, in (somewhat) chronological order:

- Fireman
As a kid, I never really expressed it to anyone, but I wanted to be a fireman.  I heard once my dad almost became a fireman but didn't because of his horrible vision, so I wanted to maybe do what he didn't.  However, I was always short for my age and I felt a good firefighter is someone who can lift and carry the average sized man, which I can not.  Maybe I"ll get in shape and become a volunteer firefighter someday.  That would fulfill this passion.  But I don't think I could ever become a full-time fireman.

- Computer Scientist/Technician
In my late high school years and early college years, I wanted to do something with computers.  I was fascinated by them.  So as my "major" at Bellevue Community College, I chose Computer Science.  My first Computer Science class, CS101, was a blast.  I did well and I had a great instructor.  However, my next Computer Science Class was nowhere near what I was expecting.  It involved a lot of programming (including Javascript and C++), something I couldn't get my mind to understand, no matter how hard I tried.  The instructor was not helpful and I ended up doing pretty poorly in the class, as well as not enjoying it.  After that class, I gave up on computers, because I don't think I'll ever be able to learn programming and coding.

- Math Teacher
Shortly after giving up Computer Science, I thought about teaching Math because I like math so much.  And BCC had an Associate's for Mathematical Education.  However, after some thinking, I decided not to do it.  I do like teaching, but I get easily frustrated when someone doesn't understand, and I'm still not good speaking in front of groups.  Plus, teachers have never been paid well (although they should be).

- Professional singer/entertainer/comedian
I never seriously considered these careers, but if I had the talent, I so would.  If I worked hard enough I could be a decent enough of a comedian, but not anyone real well-known.  I'd love to be a singer, but my vocal range is very limited (thanks puberty) and my lack of confidence can get to me at times.

- Sports marketing
I would love a career that has to do with sports, because sports is one of my passions.  So, I looked into it and I found a school (Full Sail) that offers a Sports Marketing Online degree.  I applied and even went through all of the enrollment processes and tasks, but I couldn't officially start, because my heart wasn't in it.  Why?  Because I just couldn't see myself in it.  I also realized that I didn't want to ever dislike sports.  I felt like if I got a job in sports marketing and I didn't like it for some reason, then I would start to dislike sports.  Sports are something that I can enjoy outside of my work and personal life and I want it to stay that way.

- Professional YouTuber/LP'er
One of the things I really think I could do is being a professional YouTuber.  Yeah, I know I harped on Google/YouTube in an earlier post, but I think I would certainly enjoy this and be good at it.  I've already put out some LP's (Let's Play's--You play through a game in hopes of having your viewers play along with you), but I would like to do other things, such as pranks, vlogs, and comedy/sketch videos.  And it is certainly possible to make a living off of YouTube.  One YouTuber I'm subscribed to, Jonathan Paula, makes a living solely off the views and subscribers he gets on YouTube.  It helps to have a show ("Is it a Good Idea to Microwave This?") that has a total amount of views over 20 million, but you get my point.  However, it's hard to get started and make enough money to support yourself.  Also, many would not see this as a smart or viable career choice.  It's not something that I've completely shut the book on like other career choices.  I'm thinking I'll just keep this as a hobby until one day I do an LP that gets me a boatload of subscribers.

- Writer
One of the more recent careers I've considered is writing.  Which type?  Hard to say.  I feel like I could write anything I needed to, whether it be newspaper/magazine articles, screenwriting, or even novelizations.  The thing that's kept me from pursuing this career is I read from a former writer that when he started writing for a newspaper that writing lost its interesting and became a chore more than a hobby.  You have to meet deadlines and you have to keep readers interested.  Much more stressful a career than it seems.  I've watched Californication on Showtime and the character of Hank Moody (played by David Duchovny) is a writer and he seems to hate it.  I think I can be a decent enough of a writer, but not so talented that it would get me through all the stress and deadlines.

One of my problems is that I've never striven to be extraordinary.  A huge part of me just wants to be ordinary.  I want an ordinary family, job, house, life, you name it.  I want a normal 9-5 job in a cubicle somewhere, if it'll be enough to get me by.  I do feel like I'll make a name for myself someday.  What I really want to be more than anything is to be an amazing father.  I want my kids to call me the best dad in the world.  I want to make them into really incredible people.  But in order to do that, I have to get a career where I can afford kids, so that is what I will work on.  I want to be a father more than anything, but unfortunately that job doesn't pay.  But it pays in terms of life fulfillment, which is something money can't buy.  I'll just have to wait until that day comes.

Why I Am Optimistic About the Mariners and their Future

Oh, the Mariners.  The team I love talking about the most.  Even though the Seahawks are currently doing better, it's hard to decide which team I love more.  I love the excitement the Seahawks bring, but the Mariners have a spot in my heart, because when I was an adolescent, they were good.  I grew up with Griffey, A-Rod, Edgar, Randy, and Ichiro.  I remember the 2001 season very clearly, even though it was half my life ago.  I love these guys, and that is why I talk about them so much.  I love them even when they lose.

So, that brings me to this post.  The Mariners currently sit at 18-20, just a game behind the Oakland A's for 2nd place.  Not too shabby for this part of the season.  We knew the first few months would be tough, with April having almost no days off and May being almost all on the road.  Still have half the month of May to work through, but if these guys can hang around .500 until the end of the month, they'll have a shot.

But it's not this season I am particularly excited about.  It's the future.  I said in a previous blog post that I would honestly and seriously stop caring about this team if they don't contend by 2015 or if they don't have a bright future by then (in other words, a judgment call).  I think I will remain a fan of this team, and here's why.

This team is filled with talent.  We already know about the Big Three (or Four, if you count Maurer).  But there is also some talent in hitting as well.  Nick Franklin could end up being the 2nd base answer we've been looking for if Ackley doesn't pan out.  Carlos Triunfel looks to finally be ready for the bigs and could be the next Miguel Tejada (without the controversy).  I'm excited about Carlos Peguero, who reminds me of a left-handed hitting Sammy Sosa.  And of course, there's the #2 overall pick from last year, catcher Mike Zunino.  Combine those guys with the guys we have now (who may or may not make it), such as Smoak, Ackley, Saunders, Seager, Montero, etc., and I think we'll be very competitive come 2015 or so.

There of course is the disappointment of Smoak, Ackley, and Montero.  Not one of them has performed up to expectations yet.  Each was acquired by Jack Zduriencik at great expense, two coming in costly trades where we gave up a very good pitcher, and one coming as the #2 overall pick.  Not all prospects pan out, of course.  But for every guy that should pan out and don't, there are guys that shouldn't pan out that do.  Tom Wilhelmsen came out of nowhere.  Kyle Seager wasn't expected to be a complete every day third baseman, yet he is.  Michael Saunders was thought to have been mediocre at best, but he keeps getting better.

We also have the makings of the future best bullpen in baseball.  Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps, and Yoervis Medina could all someday be All-Star relievers, with one or more of them being a closer at one point.

I'm excited about the future for this team.  I'll be even more excited if we make a playoff push this season, or finish close to 2nd in the division.  I'm curious as to how our lineup will turn out.  Here's what I predict, come 2015 or so:

1. Brad Miller, SS
2. Carlos Triunfel, 3B
3. Kyle Seager, 1B
4. Michael Morse/Jesus Montero/Kendrys Morales, DH
5. Michael Saunders, CF
6. Mike Zunino, C
7. Free Agent Acquisition, LF/RF
8. Julio Morban/Leon Landry, LF/RF
9. Nick Franklin, 2B

And our rotation:
1. Felix Hernandez, RHP
2. Free Agent LHP/Joe Saunders, LHP
3. Brandon Maurer, RHP
4. Danny Paxton, LHP
5. James Paxton/Taijaun Walker, LHP/RHP

Still a lot to take shape over the next couple years.  You might've noticed I didn't include Ackley or Smoak, and I only included Montero as a possibility.  I just don't see how they can pan out at this point, although if they did, that would certainly be a plus.  All I can see is us trading them for other players.

I'm excited, not just to see us succeed hopefully in the next few seasons, but also excited to see how our team takes shape.  It was such a wonder to see the current Seahawks team take shape.  I think what this team needs most is a hitter that is a leader in the clubhouse.  The team already has a leader and pitcher in Felix Hernandez, but what we really need is a leader and a hitter.  We had tons of those guys in the late 90's and early 2000's.  We might have to get a high profile free agent come 2015 or so, but pair them with the young studs we'll have by then and this team could be very, very good.  I can't wait.

Current Seattle Mariners Issues, Part 2

Last year, I did a blog on issues and questions surrounding the team (see it at http://briguy17-briguy17.blogspot.com/2012/06/current-seattle-mariner-issues.html).  While it may be a bit premature to do one this year, I still feel there are already a ton of questions and issues surrounding this year's team.  Here they are:

Should Wedge be fired?
If the Mariners regress and have fewer wins than last year, then yes.  This team has more talent and experience than last year's team, and if they aren't able to improve, it comes down to coaching.  The only way these guys will get going is if Wedge is able to light a fire under them and keep them motivated and confident.  Wedge seems like a good coach for a team that's already good, but not a good coach for a team trying to improve.  

What if guys like Ackley, Smoak, and Montero don't perform this year?  What should we do with them?
Each of those three players was highly regarded when we acquired them and we gave up a lot to get each.  In Ackley, we used our 2nd overall pick to get him.  The last time the Mariners drafted that high they got Alex Rodriguez.  In Smoak we traded Cliff Lee, and in Montero we traded Michael Pineda who made the All-Star team in his first year as a starter. 

If Ackley struggles (bad enough), I expect him to be sent down to work on his mechanics.  The team won't give up on their 2nd overall pick so easily.  If he can't improve anywhere by the end of the season, I would expect a trade of some sort in the offseason. 

If Smoak struggles, he could be traded before the trade deadline this season.  He could also be benched and only given spot duty for the rest of the season (put Morales at first and Montero at DH).  If he can't improve, he won't be given a shot next season.  He's had his chances.

If Montero struggles, I look for them to move him back to DH so he can focus solely on hitting.  Which means if Montero struggles it could mean the end for Smoak.  If Montero still struggles at DH the team could demote him or trade him in the offseason. 

It would be such a shame to have to do any of those things.  It's also such a shame that none of them have panned out yet.  Hopefully at least one will. 

When should the Mariners call up Mike Zunino?
When he's ready.  He has to understand the game of baseball, get some experience.  It also depends on how Montero and Smoak do in the bigs.  If they struggle and Zunino does really well at Tacoma, we'll have no choice but to promote him.  If come May, those things are true, then promote him.  Don't wait until August. 

Which of the "Big Three" if any, will appear in the majors this year?
Maybe not any.  While they were having success for a while, the pitching trio of Paxton, Walker, and Hultzen have sort of struggled recently.  There's still plenty of time to improve, but I could see Hultzen making his big-league debut with the September call-ups.  Paxton and Walker might take more time.

Is this Jack Zduriencik's last chance?
It just might well be.  Of course, if the team shows improvement, he will remain as GM.  But if the Mariners regress and possibly (heaven forbid) finish behind the Astros, he's probably gone.  If the M's do poorly enough, both he and Wedgie will be shown the door, and the team will start over... AGAIN.

Anyone going to be trade bait this season?
Smoak could be packaged in a deal if he struggles.  If the team struggles and decides to sell, then Brendan Ryan could go to a contender looking for a shortstop.   Gutierrez could be gone if the team decides they can't put up with his injuries anymore.  But the most likely to be traded is Brendan. 

Mariners All-Star(s)?
Obviously Felix, if he pitches like his usual self.   Morse could be a selection if he continues raking like he has.  Stephen Pryor has had a great start and could make it if he is able to continue his dominance into June.  Other than that, anyone else would be a bit of a surprise.

Ok, so how will they do this season?
Too soon to tell.  As I write this, they are 6-8.  Not horrible, because one more win and the team is at .500.  The team has suffered early injuries to Guti, Morse, Saunders AND Pryor, so if they can get healthy and stay healthy, we should be in good shape.  A tough month of May looms, but if they can stay near .500 throughout May, they have a shot... at improvement.  Go Mariners.

2013 Seattle Mariners Predictions

Edited to include players more likely to make roster, name's are in RED.

With my 2013 MLB Predictions already out, it is time to stick to my favorite team, the Seattle Mariners, and talk about how they will do this year.  I have already predicted a record of 79-83, which would be an improvement of 4 games.  We'd like to see more improvement than that, but I just don't see it happening until either the Rangers or Angels become mediocre/bad again.  I just think 79-83 is a good benchmark for this season.  If they do worse than that, then I would not consider it a successful season.  If they do better, then I would consider it a successful season.  Like I've done previous years, I will go over each potential player for the 25 man roster and at the end I'll pick who will lead the team in certain categories.  First, the hitters:

Catchers:
Jesus Montero - .260 avg, 29 home runs, 91 RBI
I expect Montero to have a better season than last.  He should start almost every game, most at catcher.  He may even see time at 1st base.  I'd like to see him at the #5 spot in the order.  I feel that's a spot in the order without too much pressure on it.

Kelly Shoppach - .250 avg, 5 home runs, 20 RBI
Shoppach will only see spot duty as the backup catcher this year, and with the youngster Mike Zunino waiting in the wings (and probably promoted this season), Shoppach could be on his way out before the end of the season.  I highly doubt he'll be this year's John Jaso.

Infielders:
Dustin Ackley - .300 avg, 15 home runs, 51 RBI
I expect this to be a breakout season for Dustin.  He doesn't have to hit too many home runs.  He worked on his batting mechanics a lot this offseason, and he is willing to do anything to improve on his dreadful previous season.  I may be too optimistic with my .300 batting average prediction, but if anyone on this team is going to hit .300 or better, it's him.  He's a guy who could someday earn a batting title--if he gets his act together.

Robert Andino - .240 avg, 2 HR, 12 RBI
I don't expect much from Andino this season.  He's virtually the replacement for Munenori Kawasaki and he will put up similar numbers.  He'll primarily be used to give guys like Ackley, Seager, and Ryan days off.

Kendrys Morales - .270 avg, 21 HR, 95 RBI
Morales is a much-welcomed addition to this hitting-deprived team.  He will be a middle of the order mainstay this season, so I expect 20+ HR and 80+ RBI this season from him.  Hopefully he will make the Vargas-Morales trade look like a good move by Jack Zduriencik. 

Brendan Ryan - .230 avg, 10 HR, 45 RBI
I don't know why we continue to go with Ryan other than his defense.  He is a below average hitter and always is found at the bottom of the lineup card.  However, he is a defensive wizard who actually makes guys around him (Seager, Ackley) play better defense too.  I definitely feel I am being generous with my offensive prediction for him, but he might surprise us. 

Kyle Seager - .260 avg, 18 HR, 60 RBI
I think Kyle has a limited ceiling.  What I mean by that is I think he played his best baseball last season.  Let's hope not.  I want to believe he can hit even better.  Maybe with talent around him in the lineup he can get even better.  Let's hope he doesn't have to carry the team offensively again.

Justin Smoak - .250 avg, 24 HR, 72 RBI
It's time for the big southern guy to step up.  We traded Cliff Lee to get this guy.  I would love to be surprised and see him hit .270 with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI, but I feel that is being too optimistic.  I think this year is his final time to prove to everyone in the organization he can be an everyday starting 1st baseman. 

Outfielders:
Jason Bay - .210 avg, 2 HR, 12 RBI
I don't expect Jason to play much, if at all this season.  I may be wrong.  But if he does make the opening day roster, he may not last too long.  You can't keep washed-up players for too long wasting a roster spot, which is something the Mariners have been notorious for the past decade. 

Franklin Gutierrez - .280 avg, 15 HR, 65 RBI
This guy simply cannot catch a break.  It's not that he's injury prone (technically he is).  It's that he is unlucky.  Getting beaned in the head while going back to first on a pickoff attempt.  Having stomach problems.  He needs to just get a healthy season in.  And this year, I believe he will and he will put up some decent numbers. 

Raul Ibanez - .260 avg, 12 HR, 32 RBI
Raul is something of a wild card with this team.  He could not even make the team.  He could make the team and only be used as a bat off the bench.  Or he could start at least half of the team's games.  No one really knows at this point.  I'll go with the middle option, having him as a bat off the bench (and occasional DH). 

Michael Morse - .275 avg, 20 HR, 65 RBI
I think Morse's numbers will go down now that he is back in the unfriendly hitters confines of Safeco Field.  But even with the above numbers that I predicted, he will still be a good middle of the order bat.  There just seems to be a logjam of corner outfielders/1st basemen/DH's. 

Michael Saunders - .280 avg, 25 HR, 91 RBI
I think the Canadian Condor will have a breakout season.  He will get most of his starts in right field and I think it's his time.  The fences have been brought in, and he will utilize every bit of the Safeco Field... field.  I also think participating in the World Baseball Classic will give him a little bit more motivation for this season. 

Casper Wells - .240 avg, 5 HR, 17 RBI
I don't see Casper having much playing time this year for some reason.  He's a decent player and a heck of a 4th outfielder, but he's run out of options.  I'm thinking someone else will pick him up this year.  Only time will tell.

Starting Pitchers:
Felix Hernandez - 17-12, 3.23 ERA
I see Felix having a very decent, but not oustanding season.  He will of course lead the ballclub in many pitching statistics, but it'll be a season just shy of Cy Young consideration.

Joe Saunders - 12-12, 4.20 ERA
Saunders will step in as the #2 on this team and will put up Vargas-like numbers (which is slightly above average). 

Hisashi Iwakuma - 13-10, 3.45 ERA
Iwakuma is going to be consistent this year, hopefully.  We resigned him for good reason.  He's probably a good #4 or 5, but until one of our big three emerge (Hultzen, Walker, Paxton), Iwakuma has to be a #3.

Brandon Maurer - 4-7, 4.69 ERA
I believe Brandon will have an up and down season.  He will have really good starts, but he will have really bad starts, too.  More of the latter, I am afraid.  But him being up in the bigs gives one of the big three time to develop in the minors.

Blake Beavan - 9-12, 4.34 ERA
My same day birthday buddy (Both of us were born January 17, 1989) apparently worked on his mechanics.  I'm worried, though, because Beavan is a flyball pitcher who gives up a lot of home runs, and we just moved the fences in at Safeco.  Just keep the ball down, Blake.

Previously included: Jon Garland, Erasmo Ramirez

Bullpen (No stats except for the closer):
Charlie Furbush
Furbush did really well in the relief role last season, when he was healthy.  I think he'll be continued to be used as a situational lefty and occasional two inning guy.  His best spot clearly is the bullpen.

Josh Kinney
Starts the year on the 60 Day DL

Kameron Loe
Many consider him mediocre, but he has pitched in Texas for a lot of his career.  I think he'll settle down more in Seattle.

Lucas Luetge
Here's a guy who could be a dominant LOOGY (Lefty One-Out Guy).  He is still pretty young so he can only get better.

Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps
I expect big things from both of these guys in the bullpen.  They both have great stuff and they're both young.  Someday, one of these guys will be our closer.  The question is though: Which one?

Oliver Perez 
We almost have too many lefties in the pen, but I guess better to have too many than too few.  Oliver Perez, a former starter, has shown he is definitely better suited for the bullpen now.  Heck, if the rotation suffered a lot of injuries, I'm sure he could step in if need be.

Tom Wilhelmsen, 37 saves, 3.01 ERA
Here's hoping he has just as good 2013 as he did 2012.  Wilhelmsen stepped in for League last year at closer and did marvelously.  But he's got a couple of young arms in Capps and Pryor waiting in the wings.  If Tom struggles, Wedge might be quick to put Pryor or Capps in as closer, especially if one of those two pitch well enough.

Alright, now that you know how each player will do, here's the lineup I expect to be the most-used (or at least the opening day one):

1. Michael Saunders, LF
2. Franklin Gutierrez, CF
3. Kendrys Morales, DH
4. Michael Morse, RF
5. Jesus Montero, C
6. Justin Smoak, 1B
7. Kyle Seager, 3B
8. Dustin Ackley, 2B
9. Brendan Ryan, SS

Bench:
Robert Andino, INF
Raul Ibanez, OF/DH
Kelly Shoppach, C
Casper Wells/Jason Bay, OF

Now, for the statistical leaders, in case you couldn't gather it from above:
HR leader: Jesus Montero
RBI leader: Kendrys Morales
Avg. leader: Dustin Ackley
Stolen Bases leader: Michael Saunders
Pitching wins leader: Felix Hernandez
Strikeouts: Felix Hernandez
Saves: Tom Wilhelmsen

Now, some of my personal awards, just for the fun of it:
John Jaso unsung hero award: Raul Ibanez
Kyle Seager breakout star: Michael Saunders
Carl Everett/Milton Bradley waste of space award: Jason Bay
Brandon League unreliable pitcher award: Kameron Loe
Rookie of the Year: Danny Hultzen
Clutch hitter award: Dustin Ackley

Well, let's hope for a positive 2013.  I expect the hitting to be improved with perhaps the pitching taking a step down.  If everyone is able to play to their potential, this is a 2012 A's type dark horse team.  This team really could surprise people and make a run for the playoffs just like the 2012 Oakland A's did.  I'm looking at the lineup, and having Michael Saunders hitting 8th is making it looking like a stacked lineup.  Haven't been able to say that for a while.  Here's to 2013!  GO MARINERS!